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Importance of First Round

Tue Jun 20 9:48am ET
By JEFF PAUR @jeffpaur
Sr Fantasy Writer

How important is your first-round pick? Are you guaranteed to lose your league or miss out on a money spot if you mess up that first pick? I thought it would be interesting to examine that question a little more closely. So we pulled the data from all our money leagues to find out the percent of owners that won their leagues or finished in the top three with the top 12 picks according to last year’s ADP. Here are the results:

Winner% Cashed% Rank
 1. Taylor 4.1 8.7 RB33
 2. Jefferson 13.1 37.5 WR1
 3. McCaffrey 16.4 24.7 RB2
 4. Kupp 5.9 14.5 WR23
 5. Ekeler 22.4 33.8 RB1
 6. Chase 4.6 14.8 WR11
 7. Cook 6.0 12.9 RB10
 8. Barkley 1.4 4.0 RB5
 9. Adams 0.8 2.4 WR3
 10. Diggs 1.2 3.5 WR4
 11. Mixon 3.7 12.7 RB11
 12. Swift 3.7 6.6 RB21
OTHER 17.1 38.4

The big miss last year was Jonathan Taylor, who was the top pick in most leagues, but finished just 33rd overall in running back scoring. There were just 4.1 percent of owners that won their leagues and 8.7 percent that finished in the top three that picked Taylor in round one. That isn't a very high percentage but not horrible considering the season Taylor had in the end. A few owners still managed to win it all despite the disappointing season from Taylor. 

The other bust on the list was Cooper Kupp. He battled injury issues and was just 23rd overall in fantasy receiver scoring. Kupp had an ADP of 4.67 after his monster season the previous year. Owners that took Kupp won about 5.9 percent of their leagues and 14.5 percent finished in the top three. Similar to Taylor, that is not a very high number. But again, nearly 15 percent of owners still could claw out a top-three finish despite an underperforming pick. Not terrible. 

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