Importance of First Round
Tue Jun 20 9:48am ET
By JEFF PAUR @jeffpaur
Sr Fantasy Writer
How important is your first-round pick? Are you guaranteed to lose your league or miss out on a money spot if you mess up that first pick? I thought it would be interesting to examine that question a little more closely. So we pulled the data from all our money leagues to find out the percent of owners that won their leagues or finished in the top three with the top 12 picks according to last year’s ADP. Here are the results:
|
|
Winner% |
Cashed% |
Rank |
| 1. |
Taylor |
4.1 |
8.7 |
RB33 |
| 2. |
Jefferson |
13.1 |
37.5 |
WR1 |
| 3. |
McCaffrey |
16.4 |
24.7 |
RB2 |
| 4. |
Kupp |
5.9 |
14.5 |
WR23 |
| 5. |
Ekeler |
22.4 |
33.8 |
RB1 |
| 6. |
Chase |
4.6 |
14.8 |
WR11 |
| 7. |
Cook |
6.0 |
12.9 |
RB10 |
| 8. |
Barkley |
1.4 |
4.0 |
RB5 |
| 9. |
Adams |
0.8 |
2.4 |
WR3 |
| 10. |
Diggs |
1.2 |
3.5 |
WR4 |
| 11. |
Mixon |
3.7 |
12.7 |
RB11 |
| 12. |
Swift |
3.7 |
6.6 |
RB21 |
|
OTHER |
17.1 |
38.4 |
|
The big miss last year was Jonathan Taylor, who was the top pick in most leagues, but finished just 33rd overall in running back scoring. There were just 4.1 percent of owners that won their leagues and 8.7 percent that finished in the top three that picked Taylor in round one. That isn't a very high percentage but not horrible considering the season Taylor had in the end. A few owners still managed to win it all despite the disappointing season from Taylor.
The other bust on the list was Cooper Kupp. He battled injury issues and was just 23rd overall in fantasy receiver scoring. Kupp had an ADP of 4.67 after his monster season the previous year. Owners that took Kupp won about 5.9 percent of their leagues and 14.5 percent finished in the top three. Similar to Taylor, that is not a very high number. But again, nearly 15 percent of owners still could claw out a top-three finish despite an underperforming pick. Not terrible.
I think the data shows that hitting big on a first-round pick is more important than missing. The elite players from last year won owners a lot of leagues. Austin Ekeler won the most leagues (22.4 percent). He was the top running back scorer from last year. About a third (33.8 percent) of all owners that picked Ekeler finished in the top three. So if you had Ekeler, you did well last year.
The same can be said for Christian McCaffrey and Justin Jefferson. McCaffrey was second on the list, having 16.4 percent of his owners win their leagues. And 24.7 percent finished in the top three. McCaffrey was healthy and performing at a high level. All those owners that used a top-five pick on McCaffrey were rewarded with a good season.
Jefferson had a monster season, finishing with one of the best fantasy receiver seasons of all time. I actually thought his numbers would have been first overall. He was still up there, though, finishing on 13.1 percent of winning rosters. His numbers were the highest when it comes to finishing in the money, having 37.5 percent of owners that picked him in the first round finish in the top three. Jefferson was a league winner last year.
There is some other interesting data that is hard to make heads or tails. Davante Adams is the big one. He was on just 0.8 percent of league winners that took him in the first round. Adams had a good season, finishing third overall in fantasy receiver scoring. He did have poor showings in Weeks 15 and 16, but I wouldn’t think that would knock him down too much. It is a little baffling seeing him on so few league winners.
Saquon Barkley is another player that I was surprised to see on few winning rosters. He was on just 1.4 percent of winning teams and 4.0 percent of teams that cashed. Barkley was fifth overall in fantasy running back scoring and had a great bounce-back season. He even produced well in Weeks 15 and 16. Despite all of that, Barkley wasn’t much of a league winner.
There was one other player that stood out, Stefon Diggs. He was similar to Adams, having a big fantasy receiver season but not helping a lot of winning teams. Diggs was owned on just 1.2 percent of winning teams that picked him in the first round. And he was on 3.5 percent of top-three teams. Diggs was a fine fantasy player all season but didn’t move the needle much when it comes to winning ownership.
A lot of winning teams put together a good total roster, so maybe roster construction for those owners that picked Adams, Barkley and Diggs in Round 1 wasn’t very good. This data shows that there is more that goes into winning teams than the first-round pick. A lot of owners picked good players in the first round but weren’t able to translate that to good seasons. You need to follow that first pick with a solid roster construction.
In the end, I think the biggest takeaway is the fantasy players that had monster seasons were the difference makers. Players that were good didn’t move the needle as much as that players that were really, really good. Ekeler and McCaffrey both finished nearly 100 points more than the fifth rated running back last year. And Jefferson scored about 65 points more than the fifth rated receiver. The guys that stood out the most made the difference. After those guys, there were a lot more players that finished with similar numbers at their respective positions. This didn’t differentiate things enough to make big differences when it comes to first-round picks. So I think this data shows you can win even if you miss on a first-round pick, but you can win easier if you find that player that is going to be huge.