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Five free agents worth the risk -- and five to avoid

Thu Nov 6 12:33pm ET
Field Level Media

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The MLB offseason is underway, which means it's time to spend.

Let's take a look at five players who figure to be worth the big bucks no matter what and five others who could be worth it, but also have to come with warning labels attached.

--Free Agents Worth Every Penny

Josh Naylor, 1B


Though he sacrificed some power for on-base average, Naylor put up the best offensive numbers of his career, helping the Mariners win the AL West and reach the ALCS after a deadline trade. Overall, he was perhaps the ninth or 10th most valuable first baseman in the league and won't turn 29 until June. A projection of $90 million over four years figures to be better value than, say, fellow free agent Pete Alonso.

Cody Bellinger, OF

Bellinger has had two careers, and both have been pretty good. He famously separated his shoulder celebrating a home run with Enrique Hernandez during the 2020 World Series, and the injury set him back for two seasons. He's also hit .281/.338/.477 with 73 home runs since 2023, always outperforming his expected stats and low exit velocities. At age 30, his outfield defense remains strong, though less so in center. Whoever signs him, possibly the Yankees, figures to get value even at $30 million a season.

Kyle Tucker, OF

Tucker fracturing his right hand, in addition to developing some bad swing habits, seems to have been the cause of his fizzle in the second half. At age 28 he still was, more or less, the 10th most valuable outfielder in the league despite hitting .225/.348/.342 with five homers in his final 53 games. Even at $400 million over 10 years, he'll give a team, probably the Dodgers, lots of value.

Framber Valdez, LHP

One of the five or six most valuable starting pitchers since 2020, with steady peripheral stats to back it up. Similar in results to Max Fried but with less of an injury history. A $200 million deal might not happen -- but something close should. Would be aided by good infield defense.

Ryan O'Hearn, 1B

The 10th-most valuable first baseman since 2023, he worked hard for years to just stay in the league. Kudos to the Orioles for figuring out how to unleash his bat. He also improved on defense at first base in '25, and even hit left-handed pitching well, which had been a deficiency.

--Free Agents with a Caution Label

Gleyber Torres, 2B

Torres, who turns 29 in December, made his third AL All-Star team, but fell off in the final 61 games amid a sports hernia injury that required surgery in October. He also continued a career-long trend of being much more effective against left-handed pitching than righties. His defense was below average. Overall, the Tigers got their money's worth for a one-year deal, and Torres presumably will be looking to make something like $75 million over four seasons. He was one of the 10 or so best second basemen in 2025.

Munetaka Murakami, 3B

Said to be the best power prospect from Japan since Hideki Matsui, Murakami turns 26 in February already having won his Japanese league's Triple Crown at age 22 for the Yakult Swallows. Red flags: His walk rate is down, his strikeout rate is up, his fielding is poor. His biggest adjustment, like any hitter from Japan, will be handling MLB velocity. The Mariners are said to be interested, but not the Dodgers, who are said to fear his swing-and-miss tendencies. About $23-24 million per season over five years likely gets it done. He was limited to 69 games in 2025 because of an oblique injury.

Shota Imanaga, LHP

He made the NL All-Star team in his first season and had great results in the first half of 2025, but the Cubs' lefty also lacked velocity with his fastball, was vulnerable to the home run and couldn't sustain success down the stretch and in the playoff loss to the Brewers. He just turned 32 and has a great reputation in the clubhouse, but if he gets paid like a No. 2 starter, the next team will be disappointed.

Bo Bichette, SS-2B

Bichette was a big-time producer for the Blue Jays until a knee injury derailed his bid for the batting average and hits leader honors. Not even 28, he hits like a top 10 shortstop, a high compliment, but he needs to play second base or else be a liability on defense. Would he accept being paid like a top second baseman?

Trent Grisham, OF

His terrific results at the plate in 2025 have "contract year" written all over them. Do we just give James Rowson and the Yankees hitting staff the credit?

--By David Brown, Field Level Media

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