NBA Finals G3: Celtics-Mavericks Preview, Props, Trends
Wed Jun 12 12:44pm ET
Field Level Media
The NBA Finals enters a pivotal Game 3 with two distinct possibilities: the Boston Celtics take a commanding 3-0 lead and inch closer to the franchise's first title since 2008, or the Dallas Mavericks show some life and start to turn the tide of what has been a one-sided series so far.
TRENDING
The Mavericks are favorites at home despite opening the Finals with a pair of one-sided losses. That's due in part to the series shifting to Dallas and in large part to a key injury facing Boston.
Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite at BetRivers, where the Mavericks have been backed by 60 percent of the spread-line money. Their -137 moneyline also has drawn 67 percent of the money and 63 percent of the total bets.
Meanwhile, the 213-point Over/Under has seen the Over backed by 67 percent of the money.
PROP PICKS
--Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings): Irving has struggled through the first two games of the series, averaging just 14.0 points on 35.1 percent shooting from the floor. However, he averaged 25.6 points per game for the season, and Dallas' season is essentially on the line Wednesday night. This has been the most popular player total point prop at the book ahead of Game 3.
--Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-190 at BetRivers): This has garnered the most player prop tickets at the book with 4.1 percent. Doncic made four three-points in each of the first two games of the series and has made at least four in six consecutive postseason games.
THE NEWS
The Celtics have proven to be the deeper, more talented team early on. Boston has been winning despite struggling on the offensive end such as shooting just 10 of 39 (25.6 percent) from 3-point range in Game 2.
The Mavs, meanwhile, can't rely solely on Doncic, who posted a triple-double with 32 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in Game 2, a 105-98 loss at Boston. Doncic put together that performance after being listed as questionable for the game. It was revealed that he sustained a chest injury in Game 1 to go along with lingering issues with his right knee and left ankle.
Doncic, who is probable for Game 3, addressed his status on Tuesday, saying: "I feel good. I don't want to get in any more details, but I feel good."
The bigger question for the Mavs is finding a way to get Doncic's top running mate, Irving, going after a slow start. In the two games in Boston, Irving averaged just 14 points on a combined 13-for-37 shooting, including 0-for-8 from long range. If Dallas wants to get back in the series, Irving needs to find a way to make a greater impact.
"They're not going to stop pressing us, stop their pace, stop testing us on both ends of the floor," Irving said. "We know what we're in for. But now we have to raise it to an even higher level, and it starts with me."
Of course, that's easier said than done against a Boston defense that is dynamic and versatile. The Celtics have used multiple defenders to slow down the Mavs' backcourt with Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jayson Tatum all being options to provide different looks against Doncic and Irving.
INJURY REPORT
Boston center Kristaps Porzingis is hopeful he'll be able to play after sustaining a left leg injury late in Game 2. The Celtics announced it is unrelated to Porzingis' previous right calf injury. If Porzingis is cleared to play in Game 3, it would be his first appearance in Dallas since being traded by the Mavs in February 2022.
Boston coach Joe Mazzulla said the decision on Porzingis' status - listed Wednesday afternoon as questionable -- will come down to the medical staff.
"He's doing anything and everything he can to be ready for the game tomorrow. It's a serious injury," Mazzulla said. "At the end of the day, our team and the medical team is not going to put him in any bad situations."
KEY STAT
Boston is in the driver's seat based on league history, as 31 of 36 teams who had a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals went on to win it. So, what's the Celtics approach going into Game 3 as they look to extend their perfect road record in the playoffs to 7-0?
"Trying to be the hungrier team," Holiday said. "We're going to go out there and try and execute a game plan."
THEY SAID IT
"One game, I could explode. All the percentages and things like that could change. So, it's just that mindset of I'm one game away or whatever that means." --Tatum on his two sub-par shooting nights to begin the Finals.
-- Drew Davison, Field Level Media
- Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis targets December return
- Grizzlies waiving G Derrick Rose
- Raptors to join Nets in retiring Vince Carter's number
- Knicks C Mitchell Robinson (ankle) to miss start of season
- Rockets' AJ Griffin leaving team, to be waived
- Nets sign G Killian Hayes, F Tyrese Martin
- Raptors' Bruce Brown undergoes knee surgery
- Hawks sign G Kevon Harris, F Joey Hauser
- 76ers sign Joel Embiid to three-year, $193M extension
- Nets to retire Vince Carter's No. 15 jersey on Jan. 25
- Bye-bye Boban: Marjanovic heading to EuroLeague
- Lakers plan to sign C Christian Koloko
- Cavs keep F Isaac Okoro with three-year, $38M deal
- G Landry Shamet agrees to 1-year deal with Knicks
- Junior Bridgeman buying 10 percent equity in Bucks
- Lakers' Christian Wood (knee) out 8 weeks after setback
- Longtime Rockets coach, GM Carroll Dawson dies
- Nuggets, Jamal Murray agree to 4-year, $208M extension
- Cavs bringing back C Tristan Thompson
- Grizzlies F GG Jackson II (foot) out at least 3 months
Atlanta Hawks forward/center Larry Nance Jr. believes he will have a great time playing under the guidance of Quin Snyder. "Quin is a basketball mastermind," Nance Jr. told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reporter Lauren L. Williams. "I was a huge fan of his when he was at Utah, and obviously, these past few years in Atlanta. Now I'm excited to play for him, and we're gonna get along really well. Yeah, I consider myself a high-IQ basketball player, and he's very high IQ." Nance Jr.'s production has dipped in recent years, and he will attempt to produce a bounce-back campaign under a new coach on a different team. However, he needs to avoid health troubles to make it happen. The 31-year-old has never played more than 67 games in a single NBA campaign.
Chicago Bulls forward Matas Buzelis has made a good impression in minicamp sessions ahead of training camp. "It was one thing for the 11th pick to impress in summer league, but the word out of minicamp sessions is the 19-year-old is holding his own in team activities. Buzelis has impressed with his passing and ability to attack the rim," wrote The Athletic's Darnell Mayberry. Buzelis is expected to be one of the top rookies in the league this season, and based on Mayberry's words, he looks ready to make an instant impact. Buzelis' fantasy value could get a further boost if Patrick Williams (foot) isn't fully healthy for the start of the year.
Charlotte Hornets guard/forward Josh Green will likely be a starter on his new team. According to Roderick Boone of The Charlotte Observer, "all indications" show that Green will line up on the backcourt alongside LaMelo Ball. Green started only 62 of his 223 games with the Dallas Mavericks across the past four seasons. He has posted 9.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in his career as a member of the first unit. Going from an NBA finalist to one of the worst teams in the league isn't a career path any player will want to take. But Green looks set to play a much larger role with his new squad, giving him extra fantasy value.
Brooklyn Nets guard/forward Ben Simmons (back) is fully healthy ahead of training camp. "Ben is fully cleared and is a full participant for the start of camp. He is excited to get started," Simmons' agent Bernie Lee told NBA insider Chris Haynes. Simmons had a second back surgery in three years in March, which ended his 2023-24 campaign. He also missed a large chunk at the start of the season, finishing with only 15 appearances. Simmons, a three-time All-Star in 2019-2021, remains an enigmatic player who is naturally gifted in many areas but who can't stay healthy. Hopefully, the story will be different this season.
Forward Nassir Little is joining the Miami Heat on a one-year deal. According to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald, Little's deal is expected to be partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed. The 24-year-old was available as a free agent after the Phoenix Suns waived Little four weeks ago. He saw very little action in Phoenix last season, averaging 10.2 minutes across 45 games. The former first-round pick has previously proven that he can contribute at this level, but Little's chances of carving out a significant role in Miami don't appear high.
Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (knee) is healthy heading into the 2024-25 campaign. He sprained his right MCL in the Heat's Play-In loss to the Philadelphia 76ers and missed the remainder of the postseason. Injuries have been an issue for Butler over the years, with the veteran appearing in 64 games or fewer in each of his five seasons in South Beach. When healthy, he's as good of a fantasy producer as it gets. But until Butler stays on the floor, his fantasy value is capped. Still, the 35-year-old warrants top-25 fantasy consideration in all scoring formats.
According to ESPN's Jamal Collier, Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (ankles) is anticipated to be ready for the start of the 2024-25 campaign. The 33-year-old averaged 15.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.7 rebounds last season. He also shot 38.1% from deep, his highest since 2020-21. However, after Middleton appeared in only 33 games in 2022-23, he appeared in 55 last season and underwent surgeries on both ankles over the summer. That said, the 2012 No. 39 overall pick needs to stay healthy for the Bucks to consider themselves a championship-caliber club. He'll also need to find out how to avoid the injury report. Until then, Middleton will remain a risky fantasy option no matter what round he's drafted heading into the year.
According to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (shoulder) "enters training camp with a clean bill of health." After beginning the 2023-24 campaign by serving a 25-game suspension, Morant averaged 25.1 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.6 rebounds for Memphis. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder and underwent season-ending surgery. Without a doubt, the 25-year-old is an All-Star caliber performer. He also has MVP potential. However, Morant's off-the-court conduct remains a concern, and his inability to stay healthy over the years has been an issue. But he can still anchor a fantasy team, so he's worth drafting for those comfortable with taking a gamble.
The Grizzlies waived guard Derrick Rose on Monday. The 35-year-old appeared in 24 regular season contests for Memphis last season, averaging 8.0 points, 3.3 assists, and 1.9 rebounds. With one year left on his former deal, he requested his release, indicating his intention to remain playing. Without question, Rose's best days are well behind him. However, he was semi-productive in his seven starts with the Grizzlies in 2023-24, so he could have value at times during the 2024-25 campaign.
Chicago Bulls forward Patrick Williams (foot) continues to rehab his surgically repaired left foot ahead of training camp, which starts Oct. 1. Back in July, Williams told Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic that everything felt good, there wasn't any pain or swelling, and that he was running and jumping. Fast forward to August, where the Bulls met up in Miami for some voluntary workouts, and Williams was forced to stop participating after he experienced discomfort in the same foot he had surgery on. As of right now, it's unclear if he'll be ready by the start of training camp, and then the discussion turns to whether he'll be ready by the start of the regular season. Williams appeared in just 43 games last year and averaged 10.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game.
Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine has been in the middle of the rumor mill for a couple of seasons already, but it seems like he hasn't let that keep him away from team activities. According to Darnell Mayberry of the Athletic, LaVine is buying into the voluntary workouts and the player-led minicamps throughout the offseason. LaVine and the team are still working on trade options, but he's working to be an asset to his teammates in the meantime. He was present and a full participant when the team traveled to Miami for workouts, and when they went back to Chicago for some practices before training camp started. If LaVine stays on the Bulls for a portion of this coming season, he's likely to get plenty of offensive opportunities after DeMar DeRozan departed for Sacramento.
New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (foot) underwent a foot surgery in May to address a stress injury that he suffered in the first round of last year's playoffs. According to Yaron Weitzman, the Knicks are not expecting Robinson to return until around the December/January time frame. The team is trying to be as cautious as they can, so they aren't planning to rush him back until he's as close to 100% as possible. Robinson also had surgery on his foot last December before returning in the playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers where re-aggravated the injury and needed further surgery to help alleviate the issue. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is planning to increase Julius Randle's minutes at center in the meantime, and even use OG Anunoby to guard opposing centers in shorter spurts.
Free-agent center/forward Harry Giles III agreed to a training camp deal with the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday. According to Shams Charania of The Athletic, he'll compete for a roster spot on a very bare-bones roster that suffered a lot of injuries last season. Giles didn't play at all in the NBA during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, then came back to play for the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers last year. Through 23 total appearances last season, Giles averaged 2.4 points and 1.3 rebounds across 4.3 minutes per game. Knee injuries have been his biggest issue since being drafted 20th overall in 2017, but he may find a depth spot if he can stay healthy and compete through the preseason.
Chicago Bulls guard Lonzo Ball (knee) continues to move toward a return to the National Basketball Association. The 26-year-old hasn't played since January 2022, undergoing multiple surgical procedures on his left knee, including receiving a meniscus transplant from a donor. Fortunately, he increased his workload throughout the summer, progressing to five-on-five scrimmages. Before going down with the injury, Ball had one of the best seasons of his career, averaging 13.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.8 steals. He also shot a much-improved 42.3% from deep. With that said, Ball will likely see the court sparingly once he's cleared to return. But the Bulls have a loaded backcourt featuring Josh Giddey, Coby White, and Ayo Dosunmu. Zach LaVine is also still in the picture, at least for now. As a result, if Ball will have any value for fantasy managers in 2024-25, it may not come for at least a few months, meaning he won't see much attention during fantasy drafts.
New York Knicks forward Julius Randle expects "to be ready to play by or near the start of the season." The multi-time All-Star injured his ankle in January. He initially opted for rehab instead of surgery, hoping to join the Knicks for the postseason. Unfortunately, rehab wasn't successful, resulting in Randle going under the knife in April. From a production standpoint, the 24-year-old had one of the best seasons of his career in 2023-24, averaging 24.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in 46 games. Without question, he is one of the most underrated players in the National Basketball Association. However, the Knicks' roster looks drastically different from when Randle was on the floor last, so it's hard to predict how the new additions might impact his fantasy contributions. Still, as long as he stays healthy, he should remain a reliable fantasy asset.
Toronto Raptors guard/forward Bruce Brown (knee) is set to miss the beginning of the NBA pre-season after undergoing an arthroscopic knee surgery this week. The veteran do-it-all role player won't be re-evaluated for another three weeks, but it doesn't seem like he's supposed to miss significant time. Brown was reportedly dealing with knee issues for a couple of months after he was traded to the Raptors in the deal that sent Pascal Siakam to the Indiana Pacers. The Raptors begin training camp on October 1, and the team is hopeful that he'll be back on the court before the end of pre-season in time for their first game on October 23. Brown averaged 9.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game across 34 appearances for Toronto last year.
Free agent guard Killian Hayes is on his way to Brooklyn after agreeing to an Exhibit 10 deal to try to find his way on the Nets' roster. The former seventh-overall pick has been looking for a new home after being waived by the Detroit Pistons. Hayes was still on his rookie deal and saw a decrease in stats across the board before he was let go. Through his first four seasons, Hayes averaged 8.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.0 turnovers per game with shooting splits of .382/.277/.775. If Hayes can't prove that he's grown in shooting efficiency and ball security, then he won't likely stick on an NBA roster. Brooklyn will be one of his best opportunities as they've started the rebuild after trading away Mikal Bridges this offseason.
Free-agent guards Mac McClung and Javonte Smart have signed training camp deals with the Orlando Magic, along with Ethan Thompson. In a corresponding move, the team waived Myron Gardner and Tre Scott. Smart has appeared in the most NBA games out of the three new signings with 18 appearances across two seasons with three different teams. He most recently played one game for the Philadelphia 76ers last season but averaged 8.9 points per game in 22 games for Crvena Zvezda in Serbia after being waived in December. McClung received MVP honors if the G League last season while playing with the Magic's G-League affiliate. He averaged 25.5 points, 6.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game across 27 games.
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid has officially agreed on a three-year extension that will keep him in Philadelphia through 2027-28 with a player's option for 2028-29. According to Adam Schefter, the three-year max extension is worth $192.9 million and it gives the 2023 MVP a total of $299.5 million in guaranteed money through the 2028-29 season. Since stepping on the floor for the Sixers in 2016, Embiid has been the key piece on both sides of the ball. Now that Daryl Morey and company have put a championship-or-bust roster around him, it's time for him to lead them to the promised land. As long as he's healthy, he should also remain one of the best fantasy basketball assets in the league. Last season, the big man averaged 34.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game across 39 appearances.
According to ESPN's Bobby Marks, Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid might agree to a new contract "in the near future." The 2023 Most Valuable Player became eligible for an extension worth nearly $200 million in July. While it's tough to say for certain how this situation will go, it may be in Embiid's best interest to sign on the dotted line, considering his injury history over the years. If both sides can't come to an agreement, talks will get put on hold until next offseason. The 2014 No. 3 pick averaged a career-high 34.7 points with 11.0 boards, 5.6 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 1.2 steals in 2023-24. Yet, he was limited to 39 games due to injury. Without a doubt, Embiid's consistent ailments will cause his fantasy stock to dip heading into the regular season. But he could be the top overall fantasy producer if he can figure out how to stay on the floor and off the injury report.