NBA Finals G3: Celtics-Mavericks Preview, Props, Trends
Wed Jun 12 12:44pm ET
Field Level Media
The NBA Finals enters a pivotal Game 3 with two distinct possibilities: the Boston Celtics take a commanding 3-0 lead and inch closer to the franchise's first title since 2008, or the Dallas Mavericks show some life and start to turn the tide of what has been a one-sided series so far.
TRENDING
The Mavericks are favorites at home despite opening the Finals with a pair of one-sided losses. That's due in part to the series shifting to Dallas and in large part to a key injury facing Boston.
Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite at BetRivers, where the Mavericks have been backed by 60 percent of the spread-line money. Their -137 moneyline also has drawn 67 percent of the money and 63 percent of the total bets.
Meanwhile, the 213-point Over/Under has seen the Over backed by 67 percent of the money.
PROP PICKS
--Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings): Irving has struggled through the first two games of the series, averaging just 14.0 points on 35.1 percent shooting from the floor. However, he averaged 25.6 points per game for the season, and Dallas' season is essentially on the line Wednesday night. This has been the most popular player total point prop at the book ahead of Game 3.
--Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-190 at BetRivers): This has garnered the most player prop tickets at the book with 4.1 percent. Doncic made four three-points in each of the first two games of the series and has made at least four in six consecutive postseason games.
THE NEWS
The Celtics have proven to be the deeper, more talented team early on. Boston has been winning despite struggling on the offensive end such as shooting just 10 of 39 (25.6 percent) from 3-point range in Game 2.
The Mavs, meanwhile, can't rely solely on Doncic, who posted a triple-double with 32 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in Game 2, a 105-98 loss at Boston. Doncic put together that performance after being listed as questionable for the game. It was revealed that he sustained a chest injury in Game 1 to go along with lingering issues with his right knee and left ankle.
Doncic, who is probable for Game 3, addressed his status on Tuesday, saying: "I feel good. I don't want to get in any more details, but I feel good."
The bigger question for the Mavs is finding a way to get Doncic's top running mate, Irving, going after a slow start. In the two games in Boston, Irving averaged just 14 points on a combined 13-for-37 shooting, including 0-for-8 from long range. If Dallas wants to get back in the series, Irving needs to find a way to make a greater impact.
"They're not going to stop pressing us, stop their pace, stop testing us on both ends of the floor," Irving said. "We know what we're in for. But now we have to raise it to an even higher level, and it starts with me."
Of course, that's easier said than done against a Boston defense that is dynamic and versatile. The Celtics have used multiple defenders to slow down the Mavs' backcourt with Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jayson Tatum all being options to provide different looks against Doncic and Irving.
INJURY REPORT
Boston center Kristaps Porzingis is hopeful he'll be able to play after sustaining a left leg injury late in Game 2. The Celtics announced it is unrelated to Porzingis' previous right calf injury. If Porzingis is cleared to play in Game 3, it would be his first appearance in Dallas since being traded by the Mavs in February 2022.
Boston coach Joe Mazzulla said the decision on Porzingis' status - listed Wednesday afternoon as questionable -- will come down to the medical staff.
"He's doing anything and everything he can to be ready for the game tomorrow. It's a serious injury," Mazzulla said. "At the end of the day, our team and the medical team is not going to put him in any bad situations."
KEY STAT
Boston is in the driver's seat based on league history, as 31 of 36 teams who had a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals went on to win it. So, what's the Celtics approach going into Game 3 as they look to extend their perfect road record in the playoffs to 7-0?
"Trying to be the hungrier team," Holiday said. "We're going to go out there and try and execute a game plan."
THEY SAID IT
"One game, I could explode. All the percentages and things like that could change. So, it's just that mindset of I'm one game away or whatever that means." --Tatum on his two sub-par shooting nights to begin the Finals.
-- Drew Davison, Field Level Media
- Clippers F Kawhi Leonard (knee) to sit out drills in training camp
- Grizzlies retiring Tony Allen's No. 9 on March 15
- Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis targets December return
- Grizzlies waiving G Derrick Rose
- Raptors to join Nets in retiring Vince Carter's number
- Knicks C Mitchell Robinson (ankle) to miss start of season
- Rockets' AJ Griffin leaving team, to be waived
- Nets sign G Killian Hayes, F Tyrese Martin
- Raptors' Bruce Brown undergoes knee surgery
- Hawks sign G Kevon Harris, F Joey Hauser
- 76ers sign Joel Embiid to three-year, $193M extension
- Nets to retire Vince Carter's No. 15 jersey on Jan. 25
- Bye-bye Boban: Marjanovic heading to EuroLeague
- Lakers plan to sign C Christian Koloko
- Cavs keep F Isaac Okoro with three-year, $38M deal
- G Landry Shamet agrees to 1-year deal with Knicks
- Junior Bridgeman buying 10 percent equity in Bucks
- Lakers' Christian Wood (knee) out 8 weeks after setback
- Longtime Rockets coach, GM Carroll Dawson dies
- Nuggets, Jamal Murray agree to 4-year, $208M extension
Following Paul George's departure to Philadelphia, the Los Angeles Clippers have a starter's spot open, and head coach Tyronn Lue expects to see multiple players competing for the role. The most obvious candidates to fill it are Derrick Jones Jr., Amir Coffey, and Norman Powell. A starting role always boosts a player's fantasy value. However, Jones Jr. wasn't very productive in the role during his stay in Dallas last season, averaging 8.6 points and 3.3 rebounds in 23.5 minutes. Coffey had 11 starts with the Clippers last season and posted 11.8 points with 3.7 rebounds as a member of the first unit. Powell is a very valuable bench scorer but started three games in 2023-24, averaging only slightly more points than his season average of 13.9.
Detroit Pistons center Isaiah Stewart has been mentioned as a possible trade target for the New York Knicks. "New York has spent a good portion of the last few months scouring the league to address its lack of depth at the position, according to league sources," notes James L. Edwards III of The Athletic. "The team has shown interest in trading for Detroit's Isaiah Stewart, among others." The Knicks are short of quality under the rim after losing Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency and Mitchell Robinson (foot) to injury. Stewart is a serviceable big man who posted 10.9 points and 6.6 rebounds in 30.9 minutes on a struggling Pistons team last season. On paper, he looks like a good addition to the Knicks' frontcourt, but Stewart's $15 million salary means the team will need to give up some pieces to acquire him.
Boston Celtics guard/forward Jaylen Brown has let it known that he is in great shape ahead of the 2024-25 NBA campaign. Speaking during the Celtics' Media Day, Brown noted that "this is the best he's ever felt" and "this summer was the hardest he has ever worked." Brown had plenty of time to invest in improving himself as a player after being left off the Team USA Olympics team. After being named the NBA Finals MVP 2024, he appears to be gearing up for a big regular season, which should excite fantasy managers.
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum spent some of the offseason working on his shooting, telling the media on Tuesday that he has worked through "a few mechanical things" on his jumper with trainer Drew Hanlen. Tatum has developed into one of the best scorers in the league, but his numbers dipped in 2023-24. The five-time All-Star went from averaging 30 points a night to getting 26.9 points. Tatum shot a career-low 28.3 percent from three-point range in the 2024 playoffs and couldn't get anything to fall from deep at the Paris Olympics. The Celtics star enters the new season after signing the biggest extension in NBA history and is expected to be out to prove his worth after being largely overlooked by Team USA in the summer.
Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (leg) is progressing in his return from the torn medial retinaculum suffered in the postseason. During Celtics' media day, the veteran reported feeling "really good," adding he's been running and doing "light contact work." Porzingis finished his first season in Boston by averaging 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.9 blocks. However, he appeared in only 57 regular-season contests, which limited his fantasy contributions. While the 29-year-old hopes to return sooner than anticipated, fantasy managers should still be prepared to keep him stashed on their roster. Yet, once he is fully healthy, he'll be a difference-maker for fantasy managers come the playoffs. With that in mind, Al Horford will hold things down in the middle until Porzingis is back on the court, giving him value in all formats early in the 2024-25 campaign.
According to Los Angeles Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank, forward Kawhi Leonard (knee) is still dealing with swelling in his right knee. While the veteran's condition has improved, it will still limit him during training camp. Most assumed the issue would be behind him. However, it doesn't appear to be the case. Leonard finished last season by averaging 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like Leonard is a lock to be ready to begin the 2024-25 campaign, so his fantasy stock will suffer until there is more clarity regarding his health. For now, it may be best for managers to look in another direction during fantasy drafts, at least in the first few rounds.
Boston Celtics general manager Brad Stevens said on Tuesday that center Luke Kornet had offseason wrist surgery, but he's 100 percent heading into training camp, per Jared Weiss of The Athletic. Kornet will likely see an uptick in early-season minutes with Kristaps Porzingis (foot) sidelined. In the 2023-24 regular season, the big man suited up for 63 contests and logged averages of 5.3 points and 4.1 rebounds in 15.6 minutes per game.
According to Jared Weiss of The Athletic, Boston Celtics general manager Brad Stevens said on Tuesday that center Kristaps Porzingis (foot) is progressing well since his foot surgery in June. Stevens didn't give a timetable on when Porzingis will likely return, but he is optimistic and said he is surprised at how quickly he is improving. Once healthy, the big man will significantly impact fantasy as he averaged 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 29.6 minutes last regular season.
Atlanta Hawks forward/center Larry Nance Jr. believes he will have a great time playing under the guidance of Quin Snyder. "Quin is a basketball mastermind," Nance Jr. told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reporter Lauren L. Williams. "I was a huge fan of his when he was at Utah, and obviously, these past few years in Atlanta. Now I'm excited to play for him, and we're gonna get along really well. Yeah, I consider myself a high-IQ basketball player, and he's very high IQ." Nance Jr.'s production has dipped in recent years, and he will attempt to produce a bounce-back campaign under a new coach on a different team. However, he needs to avoid health troubles to make it happen. The 31-year-old has never played more than 67 games in a single NBA campaign.
Chicago Bulls forward Matas Buzelis has made a good impression in minicamp sessions ahead of training camp. "It was one thing for the 11th pick to impress in summer league, but the word out of minicamp sessions is the 19-year-old is holding his own in team activities. Buzelis has impressed with his passing and ability to attack the rim," wrote The Athletic's Darnell Mayberry. Buzelis is expected to be one of the top rookies in the league this season, and based on Mayberry's words, he looks ready to make an instant impact. Buzelis' fantasy value could get a further boost if Patrick Williams (foot) isn't fully healthy for the start of the year.
Charlotte Hornets guard/forward Josh Green will likely be a starter on his new team. According to Roderick Boone of The Charlotte Observer, "all indications" show that Green will line up on the backcourt alongside LaMelo Ball. Green started only 62 of his 223 games with the Dallas Mavericks across the past four seasons. He has posted 9.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in his career as a member of the first unit. Going from an NBA finalist to one of the worst teams in the league isn't a career path any player will want to take. But Green looks set to play a much larger role with his new squad, giving him extra fantasy value.
Brooklyn Nets guard/forward Ben Simmons (back) is fully healthy ahead of training camp. "Ben is fully cleared and is a full participant for the start of camp. He is excited to get started," Simmons' agent Bernie Lee told NBA insider Chris Haynes. Simmons had a second back surgery in three years in March, which ended his 2023-24 campaign. He also missed a large chunk at the start of the season, finishing with only 15 appearances. Simmons, a three-time All-Star in 2019-2021, remains an enigmatic player who is naturally gifted in many areas but who can't stay healthy. Hopefully, the story will be different this season.
Forward Nassir Little is joining the Miami Heat on a one-year deal. According to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald, Little's deal is expected to be partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed. The 24-year-old was available as a free agent after the Phoenix Suns waived Little four weeks ago. He saw very little action in Phoenix last season, averaging 10.2 minutes across 45 games. The former first-round pick has previously proven that he can contribute at this level, but Little's chances of carving out a significant role in Miami don't appear high.
Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (knee) is healthy heading into the 2024-25 campaign. He sprained his right MCL in the Heat's Play-In loss to the Philadelphia 76ers and missed the remainder of the postseason. Injuries have been an issue for Butler over the years, with the veteran appearing in 64 games or fewer in each of his five seasons in South Beach. When healthy, he's as good of a fantasy producer as it gets. But until Butler stays on the floor, his fantasy value is capped. Still, the 35-year-old warrants top-25 fantasy consideration in all scoring formats.
According to ESPN's Jamal Collier, Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (ankles) is anticipated to be ready for the start of the 2024-25 campaign. The 33-year-old averaged 15.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.7 rebounds last season. He also shot 38.1% from deep, his highest since 2020-21. However, after Middleton appeared in only 33 games in 2022-23, he appeared in 55 last season and underwent surgeries on both ankles over the summer. That said, the 2012 No. 39 overall pick needs to stay healthy for the Bucks to consider themselves a championship-caliber club. He'll also need to find out how to avoid the injury report. Until then, Middleton will remain a risky fantasy option no matter what round he's drafted heading into the year.
According to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (shoulder) "enters training camp with a clean bill of health." After beginning the 2023-24 campaign by serving a 25-game suspension, Morant averaged 25.1 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.6 rebounds for Memphis. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder and underwent season-ending surgery. Without a doubt, the 25-year-old is an All-Star caliber performer. He also has MVP potential. However, Morant's off-the-court conduct remains a concern, and his inability to stay healthy over the years has been an issue. But he can still anchor a fantasy team, so he's worth drafting for those comfortable with taking a gamble.
The Grizzlies waived guard Derrick Rose on Monday. The 35-year-old appeared in 24 regular season contests for Memphis last season, averaging 8.0 points, 3.3 assists, and 1.9 rebounds. With one year left on his former deal, he requested his release, indicating his intention to remain playing. Without question, Rose's best days are well behind him. However, he was semi-productive in his seven starts with the Grizzlies in 2023-24, so he could have value at times during the 2024-25 campaign.
Chicago Bulls forward Patrick Williams (foot) continues to rehab his surgically repaired left foot ahead of training camp, which starts Oct. 1. Back in July, Williams told Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic that everything felt good, there wasn't any pain or swelling, and that he was running and jumping. Fast forward to August, where the Bulls met up in Miami for some voluntary workouts, and Williams was forced to stop participating after he experienced discomfort in the same foot he had surgery on. As of right now, it's unclear if he'll be ready by the start of training camp, and then the discussion turns to whether he'll be ready by the start of the regular season. Williams appeared in just 43 games last year and averaged 10.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game.
Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine has been in the middle of the rumor mill for a couple of seasons already, but it seems like he hasn't let that keep him away from team activities. According to Darnell Mayberry of the Athletic, LaVine is buying into the voluntary workouts and the player-led minicamps throughout the offseason. LaVine and the team are still working on trade options, but he's working to be an asset to his teammates in the meantime. He was present and a full participant when the team traveled to Miami for workouts, and when they went back to Chicago for some practices before training camp started. If LaVine stays on the Bulls for a portion of this coming season, he's likely to get plenty of offensive opportunities after DeMar DeRozan departed for Sacramento.
New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (foot) underwent a foot surgery in May to address a stress injury that he suffered in the first round of last year's playoffs. According to Yaron Weitzman, the Knicks are not expecting Robinson to return until around the December/January time frame. The team is trying to be as cautious as they can, so they aren't planning to rush him back until he's as close to 100% as possible. Robinson also had surgery on his foot last December before returning in the playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers where re-aggravated the injury and needed further surgery to help alleviate the issue. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is planning to increase Julius Randle's minutes at center in the meantime, and even use OG Anunoby to guard opposing centers in shorter spurts.