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Thunder open NBA season as heavy repeat favorites

Tue Oct 21 4:00pm ET
Field Level Media

The Oklahoma City Thunder will raise their championship banner on Tuesday night already owning lofty expectations for the 2025-26 NBA season.

The Thunder have held steady as the clear title favorites at sportsbooks, including at +240 at BetMGM. However, there has been significant movement behind the reigning champs since the market opened.

Oklahoma City is only third at the book with 12.1% of the total money wagered on this season's NBA champion. The most money has backed Denver, with the Nuggets shifting from +1600 to +550 while garnering 17.5% of the money. Second are the Los Angeles Lakers with 15.9% while seeing their odds actually lengthen slightly from +1500 to +1600.

The book's biggest liability to open the season are the Golden State Warriors, who have been backed by 9.0% of the money while seeing their odds shorten from +3000 to +2500. Another popular choice has been the Dallas Mavericks, who have drawn 9.3% at +3500.


"The star-studded Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets and Mavericks are all popular picks to win the NBA Championship this year. While the Thunder are receiving support from bettors to go back to back, the team's low odds make them a good outcome for the sportsbook," BetMGM trading strategy manager Halvor Egeland said.

The Thunder are also the favorites at BetMGM, where they are being offered at +245 ahead of the Nuggets (+600), Cleveland Cavaliers (+75), New York Knicks (+900) and Houston Rockets (+1100).

2025-26 NBA TITLE ODDS*

TEAM (OPENING ODDS), (CURRENT ODDS)

Oklahoma City Thunder (+240) (+240)

Denver Nuggets (+1600) (+550)

Cleveland Cavaliers (+700) (+750)

New York Knicks (+700) (+900)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+1400) (+1300)

Houston Rockets (+800) (+1400)

Los Angeles Lakers (+1500) (+1600)

Los Angeles Clippers (+2500) (+1800)

Orlando Magic (+1800) (+1800)

Golden State Warriors (+3000) (+2500)

Detroit Pistons (+6600) (+3300)

Dallas Mavericks (+3500) (+3500)

Philadelphia 76ers (+3500) (+4000)

Atlanta Hawks (+25000) (+4000)

Milwaukee Bucks (+10000) (+5500)

Boston Celtics (+1600) (+6000)

San Antonio Spurs (+2500) (+6600)

Indiana Pacers (+6600) (+10000)

Toronto Raptors (+20000) (+10000)

Memphis Grizzlies (+15000) (+12500)

Miami Heat (+25000) (+20000)

New Orleans Pelicans (+25000) (+30000)

Phoenix Suns (+30000) (+50000)

Sacramento Kings (+30000) (+50000)

Chicago Bulls (+30000) (+50000)

Portland Trail Blazers (+50000) (+50000)

Utah Jazz (+100000) (+100000)

Charlotte Hornets (+50000) (+100000)

Brooklyn Nets (+50000) (+100000)

Washington Wizards (+100000) (+100000)

*BetMGM

The loaded Western Conference sees the Thunder begin the season as the +170 favorites at BetMGM followed by the Nuggets (+375), Minnesota Timberwolves (+700) and the Lakers, Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers each at +900.

The Eastern Conference is considered far more open, especially with the Boston Celtics minus Jayson Tatum and the Indiana Pacers without Tyrese Haliburton due to Achilles injuries. The Cavaliers are the +220 favorite, followed closely by the Knicks at +250. The Orlando Magic hold the third-shortest odds at +550 to win the Eastern Conference, while the Atlanta Hawks are +900.

Player Notes
OG Anunoby Tue Oct 21 5:10pm

New York Knicks forward OG Anunoby (ankle) is listed as probable heading into Wednesday's opener against the Cavs. The injury report doesn't look good for New York, with the Knicks already ruling out Mitchell Robinson (ankle) and Josh Hart (back). To make matters worse, Karl-Anthony Towns (quadriceps) is questionable. Anunoby is coming off a fantastic season, averaging a career-high 18.0 points with 4.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.5 steals. If he's available, he's certainly a must-start in any fantasy format. The 28-year-old would also be in line to smash DFS projections, even more so if KAT can't suit up. However, if Anunoby suffers a setback along the way and can't get out there on Wednesday, Guerschon Yabusele and Miles McBride could see a bump in production.

Mitchell Robinson Tue Oct 21 5:00pm

According to ESPN's Shams Charania, New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (rest) will be unavailable for Wednesday's season opener against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The 27-year-old big man is expected to be load-managed throughout the regular season after missing most of the 2024-25 campaign recovering from two ankle surgeries. When active, Robinson averaged 5.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks in 17.1 minutes per game across 17 contests. Fantasy managers should approach with caution, as he has appeared in just 48 total games over the past two regular seasons.

Karl-Anthony Towns Tue Oct 21 4:50pm

New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (quadriceps) is questionable for Wednesday's opener versus the Cleveland Cavaliers. It's been known KAT is dealing with this issue, although it's unknown if it will keep him out for the first game of the 2025 campaign. Mitchell Robinson (ankle) has already been ruled out, so another absence at the five spot wouldn't be an ideal scenario for head coach Mike Brown in his debut with the team. At any rate, if Towns can't get on the floor, Guerschon Yabusele, who averaged 11.3 points and 6.2 rebounds in 43 starts for the Sixers last season, would be worth considering for streaming purposes. He will be in line for even more work if OG Anunoby (ankle), who is probable, suffers a setback heading into opening tip.

Josh Hart Tue Oct 21 4:30pm

According to ESPN's Shams Charania, New York Knicks forwardJosh Hart(back) will be sidelined for Wednesday's season opener against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Hart continues to deal with a lingering back issue that kept him sidelined for most of the preseason. Mitchell Robinson (rest) has also been ruled out for the contest. New York will likely rely uponJordan Clarkson for extra scoring, whileMiles McBrideandGuerschon Yabuselecould also see extra minutes on the floor. Hart is coming off a solid 2024-25 campaign, posting averages of 13.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game, making him a valuable fantasy option once he is healthy.

Tari Eason Tue Oct 21 4:20pm

Houston Rockets forward Tari Eason appears to be lined up to be a restricted free agent next offseason, according to ESPN's Shams Charania, who reports that the rookie did not sign his rookie extension before Monday's deadline. When healthy, the Bucket from the Bayou has shown a high ceiling, but he has battled a leg injury that has limited him from playing back-to-backs. This year, he's expected to be a key part of Houston's bench rotation after averaging 12.0 points and 6.4 rebounds last year. He'll definitely be a name to watch on the market next year if he can play his way into a bigger role in his fourth year with the Rockets.

Jaylen Brown Tue Oct 21 4:20pm

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (hamstring) is questionable for Boston's season-opening matchup with the 76ers. He strained his hamstring in the final game of the preseason but has been able to put in consecutive full practices. He said he's feeling great now but is taking it one day at a time. which is a great sign for his potential availability. He's trending towards being available, but since he's questionable and the team is sure to be careful with him, you'll want to check back before tip-off before plugging him into any lineups. If he is out, Anfernee Simons and Josh Minott would be the top candidates to pick up more work in his absence.

Maxi Kleber Tue Oct 21 4:10pm

According to Michael Scotto of USA Today, Los Angeles Lakers forward/center Maxi Kleber (oblique) will be re-evaluated in two weeks after suffering a left oblique strain. The veteran big man joins LeBron James (back) on the sidelines to open the 2025-26 campaign. Kleber was expected to provide veteran leadership coming off the bench, but his latest setback could limit his early-season minutes. Once healthy, the 33-year-old will likely struggle to earn consistent minutes and is expected to make only a minimal fantasy impact this season.

Dorian Finney-Smith Tue Oct 21 8:20am

Houston Rockets forward Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) will miss Tuesday's matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He's recovering from an offseason ankle procedure and doesn't have a set timetable for his return. Houston snapped up Finney-Smith on a four-year, $53 million contract in the summer, indicating that the team values him quite highly. Once he is healthy, Finney-Smith is expected to have a regular role in the rotation. In the meantime, Tari Eason may see increased playing time off the bench, with veteran Jeff Green also a candidate to fill some of the vacant minutes.

Isaiah Joe Tue Oct 21 8:10am

Oklahoma City Thunder shooting guard Isaiah Joe (knee) will miss Tuesday's season-opening matchup against the Houston Rockets. He has failed to shake off a knee injury, which Joe sustained during the preseason. With Joe on the shelf, the Thunder are forced to start the season without a skilled three-point sniper. Last season, Joe sank 41.2 percent of his three-point shots on 6.3 attempts per game, averaging a career-high 10.2 points. Joe's absence means that players like Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins will have a chance to step up and contribute more against Houston.

Darius Garland Tue Oct 21 8:00am

Cleveland Cavaliers point guard Darius Garland (toe) is not expected to play in Wednesday's season opener against the New York Knicks, according to Cleveland.com. Garland is considered "ahead of schedule" in his recovery from offseason toe surgery, but it looks like the season opener comes too soon for him to be ready for action. Garland's absence is set to give Lonzo Ball an opportunity to start, while much of the Cavaliers offense will run through Donovan Mitchell without him. Mitchell has averaged 29.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 6.8 assists in games without Garland in Cleveland.

Alex Caruso Tue Oct 21 8:00am

Oklahoma City Thunder guard/forward Alex Caruso (ankle) is not on the injury report ahead of Tuesday's season opener against the Houston Rockets. The defensive specialist appeared to have injured his ankle in the Thunder's preseason finale against the Denver Nuggets last week, but he has fully recovered for Tuesday. Due to Isaiah Joe's (knee) absence, Caruso could pick up additional minutes on Tuesday. However, he is clearly a much valuable player in real life than he is in fantasy hoops.

De'Andre Hunter Tue Oct 21 7:50am

Cleveland Cavaliers forward De'Andre Hunter (knee) is considered questionable for Wednesday's season opener against the New York Knicks, according to Cleveland.com. A week ago, Hunter sustained a knee contusion in a preseason contest against the Detroit Pistons. On Monday, he was only a limited participant at practice. Jaylon Tyson is seen as the favorite to start if Hunter can't play against the Knicks. A starting role would significantly boost Tyson's fantasy stock. During his rookie campaign last year, the 22-year-old had a minimal role, averaging 3.6 points and 2.0 rebounds in 9.6 minutes.

Aaron Nesmith Tue Oct 21 7:35am

Indiana Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith has agreed to a two-year contract extension ahead of the new season, ESPN's Shams Charania reports. He's signing a two-year, $40.4 million deal, which includes a trade kicker. Nesmith will begin his fourth campaign with the Pacers and could have a significantly larger role on offense due to Tyrese Haliburton's (Achilles) absence and Myles Turner's departure. Last season, Nesmith averaged 12.0 points and 4.0 rebounds with career-high shooting percentages. He went 43.1 percent from deep and 50.7 percent overall from the field. Indiana kicks off its campaign on Thursday night with a rematch of the 2025 NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Ty Jerome Tue Oct 21 7:35am

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ty Jerome (calf) will be re-evaluated in four weeks, the team announced. He sustained a high-grade right calf strain in Friday's preseason finale against the Miami Heat. The injury will delay Jerome's debut with the Grizzlies, who signed him to a three-year, $28 million contract as a free agent this offseason. Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) is out indefinitely and Ja Morant (ankle) isn't at 100 percent either, so Memphis' backcourt is already battling injuries before the season has even begun. This could lead to rookie Javon Small playing a significant role in the rotation from the start.

Jalen Williams Mon Oct 20 9:00pm

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams (wrist) is listed as inactive for Tuesday's opening night game against the Houston Rockets. Williams will likely be in attendance to take part in the team's ring ceremony to honor the 2024 NBA Championship, but he is officially ruled out for the season opener. The 24-year-old underwent surgery in the offseason to repair a torn ligament in his wrist, so he'll need more time to heal before he's back with his star-studded team. He averaged 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game last season. Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins should get more playing time in Williams' absence. Oklahoma City having stronger depth than any other team in the league allows the club to play it safe and avoid playing Williams until he's closer to 100% healthy and ready for high-level basketball.

Dyson Daniels Mon Oct 20 5:00pm

According to Shams Charania of ESPN Atlanta Hawks guardDyson Daniels agreed to a four-year, $100 million rookie contract extension with the franchise on Monday. Daniels was named NBA's Most Improved Player of the Year last season after averaging 14.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists across 33.8 minutes per contest in 76 appearences. He also made first-team All-Defense and finished second-place for Defensive Player of the Year after leading the NBA with 3.0 steals per game.

Ja Morant Mon Oct 20 4:40pm

Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appealreports that Memphis Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant (ankle) is expected to be available to suit up for Wednesday's regular season opener versus the New Orleans Pelicans. Morant sprained his left ankle during practice in early October and has had a long list of injuries the last few seasons. During the 2024-25 campaign he averaged 23.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 1.2 steals in 30.4 minutes per contest across 50 appeearences. Despite playing in just 58 games in the last two seasons the 26-year-old still remains a top fantasy asset when he is healthy.

Christian Braun Mon Oct 20 4:20pm

ESPN's Shams Charania reports that Denver Nuggets guard/forward Christian Braun agreed to a five-year, $125 million rookie contract extension with the organization on Monday. Last campaign during 79 appearences Braun averaged 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 58.0 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from beyond the arc in 33.9 minutes per contest. He will likely remain in a starting role even after the Nuggets re-tooled a lot of their lineup this offseason.

Coby White Mon Oct 20 3:00pm

Chicago Bulls guard Coby White (calf) has officially been ruled out through at least the end of October and will be re-evaluated on November 3. While the team hopes he can ramp up shortly after, there is no guarantee of an immediate return, and Chicago may opt for caution with its lead guard. White is coming off a breakout campaign in which he averaged a career-high 20.4 points per game while starting 73 contests and steadily improving his efficiency. In his absence, Josh Giddey is expected to handle primary point guard duties, with Ayo Dosunmu and Tre Jones also seeing expanded playmaking roles. Fantasy managers should keep White stashed in all formats, but those in need of short-term guard production can look to Jones or Dosunmu as viable streaming options until White is cleared to return.

Bilal Coulibaly Mon Oct 20 2:50pm

Washington Wizards small forward Bilal Coulibaly (thumb) has been ruled out for Wednesday's season opener against the Milwaukee Bucks and is expected to miss at least the first week or two of the season. The third-year wing suffered the injury late in the preseason, delaying what was expected to be a breakout campaign. Coulibaly made a promising leap last season, boosting his scoring from 8.4 points as a rookie to 12.3 per game while flashing two-way upside. His absence opens the door for rookie Kyshawn George to see extended minutes on the wing, while fellow young talents Bub Carrington and Alex Sarr could also benefit as the Wizards lean into their rebuild. Fantasy managers in deeper formats should consider George as a short-term streaming option, while Coulibaly remains a strong stash candidate once healthy.


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