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Lineup Prep: Super Bowl

Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pacheco is playing at high level


Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.

If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.

On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.

We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.

News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday. 

HOT PLAYS

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.

COLD PLAYS 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.

SLEEPERS

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Marvin Mims Jul 2 3:50pm CT
Marvin Mims

Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. was the first selection of the Sean Payton era, landing with the organization at the end of the second round in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, he caught just 22 of his 33 targets for 377 yards and one touchdown. He was a Pro Bowler and second-team All-Pro selection as a returner, and Jon Heath of Broncos Wire believes he should be more involved in the offense in 2024. "Mims is poised to make a big impact as a returner again in 2024, but his contributions won't end there," Heath wrote. "Mims averaged 17.1 yards per reception last fall, but he was used sporadically on offense. After trading Jerry Jeudy to the Browns this spring, the Broncos will have more snaps (and targets) available for Mims on offense this fall. The 22-year-old special teams ace could be on the verge of a breakout year as a receiver." Mims will compete with Josh Reynolds, Troy Franklin, and Tim Patrick for snaps, all of whom aren't standout pass-catchers. The Broncos are likely to have one of the worst offenses in the NFL under rookie quarterback Bo Nix, but Mims could still be a solid late-round fantasy option considering his price outside the top 75 wide receivers.

From RotoBaller

Tashaun Gipson Jul 2 3:50pm CT
Tashaun Gipson

The NFL issued a six-game suspension to free-agent safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. on Tuesday, according to NFL insider Ari Meirov. The cause for the suspension is unclear, but it will make his path toward finding a landing spot tougher as the 2024 season rapidly approaches. The 33-year-old has played in 173 career games for the Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers and has racked up 684 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 33 interceptions, 67 pass deflections, and one forced fumble. He started for the 49ers in February's Super Bowl LVIII loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Curtis Samuel Jul 2 3:20pm CT
Curtis Samuel

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel is set to play with the best quarterback of his career in 2024, and his best season of production came under current Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady with the Carolina Panthers in 2020. Samuel racked up 1,051 yards and seven touchdowns on 118 touches during his one season with Brady. According to Jacob Robinson of the Athletic, Samuel could be more involved in the offense than many expect. "Still just 27 years old, the explosive Samuel is now in one of the league's best offenses (with over 260 targets available)," Robinson wrote. "It's the best opportunity of his career, yet he's being drafted as the 40th wide receiver or later." Robinson noted that Khalil Shakir is the only wide receiver on the roster to catch a pass from Josh Allen in a game, so Samuel will have the opportunity to become at least Allen's No. 2 target in the passing game. Samuel, who has 121 career rushing attempts, could also see extra fantasy production on the ground.

From RotoBaller

Brandin Cooks Jul 2 3:10pm CT
Brandin Cooks

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks didn't make the impact many had hoped for in his first season with the organization. He caught just 54 passes for 657 yards, but his eight touchdowns kept him on the fantasy football radar. The six-time 1,000-yard receiver has now failed to reach 700 yards in two consecutive seasons, but he's reportedly looking like his old self offseason. "The Cowboys were 11-0 in the regular season when Cooks had at least 20 receiving yards and 0-5 when he had fewer than 20," wrote Saad Yousuf of the Athletic. "One of the most underrated players in Dallas, the 31-year-old Cooks still showed his signature speed while blowing past cornerbacks during OTAs." The former Saint, Patriot, Ram, and Texan is being selected outside the top 50 wide receivers in 2024 fantasy drafts, so he could be a steal at cost in the explosive Dallas offense. However, it's tough to ignore the statistical regression in recent seasons.

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Kyler Murray Jul 2 3:00pm CT
Kyler Murray

Arizona Cardinals offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. was selected with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft out of Ohio State, meaning he has plenty of pressure on him to become a high-end blindside protector for quarterback Kyler Murray. Johnson was credited with giving up eight sacks last year while playing right tackle, according to PFF, but he's ready to make the Year 2 leap at his more natural position on the left side. "Yeah, I think personally, just Year 2, being able to fulfill all of the expectations that I have for myself, expectations that the team has for me being here," Johnson said. "My goal ultimately is to be the best tackle in the game." Johnson developing into at least an above-average left tackle in 2024 would be a significant boost for a potential ascending offense. Kyler Murray is back and healthy, and the team added Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey Benson to bolster its skill position group this offseason. Arizona could be an underrated offense for fantasy football.

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Jahlani Tavai Jul 2 2:00pm CT
Jahlani Tavai

The New England Patriots gave emerging star linebacker Jahlani Tavai a three-year contract extension on Tuesday, according to league source. The extension has a base value of $15 million and can be worth up to $21 million, according to sources. Tavai tied for second on the team in tackles last year while emerging as a key cog for one of the league's top-rated defenses. He was entering the final season of the two-year extension he signed in November of 2022 that was worth up to $4.4 million. Tavai was scheduled to earn a base salary of $1.625 million in 2204. The 6-foot-2, 255-pounder entered the league as a second-round pick by the Detroit Lions in 2019. He's appeared in all 17 regular-season games in each of the last two years for New England and has made 28 starts. Tavai's 107 tackles last year were tied with safety Kyle Dugger.

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Edgerrin Cooper Jul 2 1:30pm CT
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Green Bay Packers rookie second-round linebacker Edgerrin Cooper has a decent shot to work his way onto the first-team defense at linebacker in training camp this summer after what he showed during offseason workouts heading into his first NFL season. Cooper has absorbed new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's scheme seamlessly after being taken as the first off-ball linebacker in this year's draft at No. 45 overall. The 6-foot-2, 229-pounder has showed impressive speed this offseason, and his eight sacks in his final season at Texas A&M stood out. Cooper has a clear path to earning the starting middle linebacker spot in Green Bay this year after the departure of De'Vondre Campbell. A duo of Cooper and Quay Walker in the middle of the Packers' defense could be nasty in 2024.

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Tank Bigsby Jul 2 1:30pm CT
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Brock Purdy Jul 2 1:20pm CT
Brock Purdy

The San Francisco 49ers were remarkably balanced and efficient with their passing offense last year, but they attempted fewer passes (491) than any team in the league during the regular season. Despite that, the 49ers finished fourth in passing yards (4,384), and both Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle hit the 1,000-yard receiving mark. Last year was the beginning of the team's evolution into a more aggressive pass offense, one that put more of an emphasis on big shots downfield to its receivers and Kittle. After taking wideouts Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing in this year's draft, the offense is more capable against man coverage through the air. And given head coach Kyle Shanahan's trust in quarterback Brock Purdy, the investment in young receivers makes sense. The Niners called more pass plays than run plays in the playoffs, which could be a sign that Purdy will get more opportunities to make things happen with his arm in 2024.

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Brock Purdy

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Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) missed the team's mandatory minicamp last month because he had a pre-planned trip to Egypt, according to sources. Rodgers attended every day of the team's Phase 1 voluntary workouts and missed one week of Phase 2 but attended every organized team activity workout, which were also voluntary. The future Hall of Famer originally planned his trip to Egypt during his recovery from the season-ending Achilles injury he suffered in Week 1 of 2023. While it was an unexcused absence, the Jets aren't concerned that it will impact Rodgers' season this fall as he recovers from his Achilles injury. Rodgers should be able to bounce back from a career-worst season in his final year in Green Bay in 2022, but fantasy managers also shouldn't be lumping him into the QB1 discussion at his age while coming off a serious injury.

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Charles Omenihu Jul 2 10:20am CT
Charles Omenihu

Kansas City Chiefs edge rusher Charles Omenihu (knee) suffered a torn ACL in the AFC Championship victory over the Baltimore Ravens last season. The 26-year-old recorded a pivotal sack-fumble of Lamar Jackson but suffered the major injury soon after. The timeline of his injury almost guarantees he won't be ready for the regular season, Omenihu said "it's going good," when asked about his recovery. "Slow process, everybody told me it was going to be like that, but it's been decent," Omenihu said. Kansas City has Chris Jones and George Karlaftis on the roster to provide pressure on quarterbacks, but Omenihu is an important depth piece for Steve Spagnuolo's defense. The 2019 fifth-round pick has posted 18.5 sacks through his first 72 games with the Texans, 49ers, and Chiefs.

Nick Chubb Jul 2 10:13am CT
Nick Chubb

Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb (knee) has recovered from his knee surgery faster than trainer Brad Lester has ever seen before. 'I even had to ask him, 'Which knee was it again?'' Lester said. 'He said 'the left one.' I said, 'That's good that I can't even tell.' He's way ahead of schedule in my opinion. I will honestly say I have never seen anyone recover as fast as he has so far. After certain movements, I was kind of like, 'How do you feel?' And he'd say 'I was fine.' I was like, 'Man, this is pretty impressive.' To be seven months out and he didn't have any pains in the workout.'

Fantasy Spin: That's about all you could hope to hear after his catastrophic knee injury last year that tore his ACL, MCL and medial capsule. They may still slow-play him back as they have depth with Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman. The latter two will be matchup plays or flex options while Chubb is out. But Chubb could be a mid-to-low RB2.

From TheHuddle

Jordan Akins Jul 2 10:03am CT
Jordan Akins

Cleveland Browns TE Jordan Akins will be the team's TE2 on the roster, but the Browns are expected to monitor preseason cuts for young or veteran tight ends to add to their depth.

From TheHuddle

Duron Harmon Jul 1 7:43pm CT
Duron Harmon

Free-agent S Duron Harmon (Browns) said he is interested in signing with the New England Patriots because he would like to finish his career with the team.

From TheHuddle

Alec Pierce Jul 1 7:30pm CT
Alec Pierce

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce hopes to prove he's more than just a "deep threat." "I think there's a lot more to my game," Pierce said recently. "I just want to have the chance to be able to showcase that." The 24-year-old has displayed brief glimpses of promise in his first two seasons in the league, amassing 73 catches for 1,107 yards and four touchdowns in 33 games. Michael Pittman Jr. is the No. 1 wideout on the depth chart. However, Pierce seems eager to show everyone that he's more than a one-dimensional player, so he could be in line for his most productive season to date, especially if quarterback Anthony Richardson can play at a high level. He'll be competing for the No. 2 spot primarily with Adonai Mitchell, who the Colts selected in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

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Haason Reddick Jul 1 4:00pm CT
Haason Reddick

New York Jets edge rusher Haason Reddick sat out the entire offseason program after being traded from the Philadelphia Eagles as he seeks a new contract. However, Jets reporter Zack Rosenblatt believes the team is unlikely to offer him a new deal before the start of training camp that begins on July 23. Reddick was unhappy with his deal in Philadelphia, which makes sense considering he has the sixth-most sacks since 2021 (38) but has the 19th-highest average salary ($15 million) among edge defenders. Rosenblatt said the organization could opt to guarantee his salary or add incentives to his deal to alleviate any issues, but this is a situation worth monitoring as the 2024 campaign approaches.

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