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Lineup Prep: Super Bowl

Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pacheco is playing at high level


Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.

If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.

On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.

We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.

News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday. 

HOT PLAYS

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.

COLD PLAYS 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.

SLEEPERS

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Bucky Irving Jun 20 3:40pm CT
Bucky Irving

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected former Oregon running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, just months after Rachaad White finished his breakout campaign that consisted of 1,539 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns on 336 touches. White was a rare workhorse in today's NFL, so Irving is likely to get work behind him in 2024. When speaking about Irving, White said the two could be a great one-two punch. "Bucky does a great job of, first thing, competing, and two, learning," White said. "They're all brilliant and they all want to understand the game more, and things like that. We talk a lot. We've got a good relationship. It's huge. I think he brings a playmaker [ability] and in this offense, the more playmakers, the better. It'll be huge. The one-two punch would be nice." It will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Liam Cohen distributes the backfield touches, but White should remain the clear starter in Tampa Bay. Irving is a Day 3 rookie who had a disappointing pre-draft process, so expectations should be tempered.

From RotoBaller

Rhamondre Stevenson Jun 20 3:20pm CT
Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson agreed to a four-year, $36 million contract extension on Thursday, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The deal includes $17 million guaranteed. While the team can get out of the deal early and less than half of it is guaranteed, this is still a sign that the organization views him as the clear leadback. The 26-year-old enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2022, racking up over 1,400 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in 17 games. He was limited to just 12 games and 857 yards in 2023, but he should be healthy heading into his fourth pro season. While Antonio Gibson might get work behind him in the receiving game, both running backs could see plenty of targets given the weak group of pass-catchers Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett have to work with. Stevenson is likely an underpriced RB2 for 2024.

From RotoBaller

Jalen McMillan Jun 20 3:20pm CT
Jalen McMillan

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and according to Bailey Adams of PewterReport, he's on track to be a Day 1 contributor. "McMillan may even have a chance to overtake [Trey] Palmer for the WR3 role, though Palmer is having a good offseason himself," Adams wrote. "In either case, the rookie looks like he'll help the Bucs from day one, whether he's WR3 or WR4." Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have the WR1 and WR2 roles locked down, so it will be interesting to see whether Palmer or McMillan sees more snaps early in the 2024 campaign. While sharing a field with Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk in 2022, McMillan posted 79 receptions for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns. He regressed in his final season at Washington, but he was still productive considering the immense target competition. The 22-year-old likely has limited fantasy upside as a rookie if Evans and Godwin stay healthy, but if he flashes with limited targets, his fantasy stock could spike in dynasty and for the following season.

From RotoBaller

Roderic Teamer Jun 20 2:00pm CT
Roderic Teamer

The New Orleans Saints signed free-agent safety Roderic Teamer to an undisclosed one-year deal on Thursday, according to a source with knowledge of the situation. The 27-year-old Tulane product previously tried out with the Saints at rookie minicamp and again at mandatory minicamp and will join his hometown team. Teamer began his NFL career in 2019 with the Los Angeles Chargers after going undrafted. He then spent the next three years playing for the Las Vegas Raiders. In his 40 NFL games (11 starts) over four years, Teamer has 103 tackles (72 solo), an interception, one sack and three pass breakups. He will now look to impress the coaching staff enough in training camp and the preseason to earn a 53-man roster spot as secondary depth going into Week 1 this fall.

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Jerry Jeudy Jun 20 1:50pm CT
Jerry Jeudy

The Athletic's Zac Jackson believes that the Cleveland Browns plan to open the year with new wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in the slot and Amari Cooper and Cedric Tillman out wide. Jeudy also has the ability to play outside, and Elijah Moore will also see snaps both inside and outside. David Bell is likely the No. 5 receiver, and any other player wanting to get into the immediate mix at the position would need a big summer performance and come with special teams ability. Jeudy was held out of spring practices with a minor injury, so he should be ready to go for training camp this summer. The former first-rounder from Alabama has lined up slightly more than half the time so far in his NFL career, but he's been a disappointment to this point and won't have a ton of fantasy upside as long as Cooper stays healthy in 2024. Jeudy should be considered more of a WR4/5 heading into his first year in Cleveland.

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Denzel Mims Jun 20 1:50pm CT
Denzel Mims

Former New York Jets wide receiver Denzel Mims, who was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers this week, quickly found a home and signed an undisclosed deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday, according to sources. Mims spent time on the Steelers' practice squad last year but never played in a regular-season game. The 26-year-old former second-round selection (59th overall) by the Jets in 2020 out of Baylor was a bust in his three years in New York, catching 42 of 92 targets for 676 yards and no touchdowns in 30 games (15 starts). He was traded to the Detroit Lions at the start of the 2023 campaign but also didn't get into any regular-season games with the team. Even with Calvin Ridley gone in Jacksonville, Mims is going to be fighting an uphill battle to make the Jags' 53-man roster out of training camp this summer.

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Pierre Strong Jr. Jun 20 1:40pm CT
Pierre Strong Jr.

The Athletic's Zac Jackson projects Cleveland Browns running back Pierre Strong Jr. to make the team with both Nick Chubb and Nyheim Hines coming off knee injuries. Strong might be the fifth running back on the team, though, and he might not play RB at all. He showcased his impressive straight-line speed in May and June during offseason workouts and most of his work will likely come on special teams as a punt gunner and kickoff returner. For that, he'll likely be on the game-day roster, despite a RB room that includes Chubb, Hines, Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman. Strong and backup cornerback Justin Hardee Sr. are near the top of the list of players in line to make the roster for special teams purposes. Just don't count on Strong being anywhere near the fantasy radar in 2024.

From RotoBaller

George Kittle Jun 20 1:10pm CT
George Kittle

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle was rehabbing a fractured rib, issues with his shoulder and toe, and a core-muscle injury that required surgery this offseason. As a result, Kittle revealed that he lost almost 30 pounds after the Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, a significant blow to his typical 250-pound frame. "I couldn't lift," Kittle explained. "I couldn't do any upper body because of my shoulder and my rib, and I couldn't do lower [body] because of my core surgery. I didn't lift from the Super Bowl until like almost mid-March." However, Kittle remains confident going into the 2024 season and is recovered from surgery on his core. The 30-year-old led the NFL with 1,020 receiving yards in 16 regular-season games in 2023 and is still one of the high-end targets at the position in fantasy. However, with only 65 catches in an offense with many mouths to feed, his 2023 production may be his ceiling at this point in his career.

From RotoBaller

Chigoziem Okonkwo Jun 20 11:10am CT
Chigoziem Okonkwo

Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is excited about the way his body is feeling and the direction of the team heading into the 2024 regular season this fall. "I feel like I maximized the potential I had in my body, and if I wanted to get better, I had to change the structure of how I move and stuff," Okonkwo said. "(I feel) a big difference, even the way I feel, my body. I feel a lot better when I move. After a long day of moving, I don't feel as sore." The fourth-rounder in 2022 caught 54 passes for 528 yards and a touchdown in 17 games (11 starts) in his second year in 2023. He had three TDs and more average yards per catch in his rookie campaign. The 24-year-old's stock is trending up, but in an offense that now includes receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, in addition to DeAndre Hopkins, it's hard to envision Okonkwo ascending to the ranks of surefire TE1 in fantasy.

From RotoBaller

Anders Carlson Jun 20 11:10am CT
Anders Carlson

Green Bay Packers kicker Anders Carlson missed a field goal and/or an extra point in nine of the final 12 games in 2023 in his rookie season, including a 41-yarder in the fourth quarter of a three-point Divisional Round loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Carlson didn't have any competition from late May through the end of the season, but Green Bay now has Jack Podlesny and veteran Greg Joseph to compete with Carlson in training camp and the preseason. The Packers have given each of the three kickers equal run this offseason, with each of them having their impressive moments. As or right now, it remains to be seen if either Podlesny or Joseph can knock Carlson out of the starting kicking duties. Fantasy managers in standard 12-team leagues should be looking to avoid the kicking situation in Green Bay this fall.

From RotoBaller

Adonai Mitchell Jun 20 11:10am CT
Adonai Mitchell

Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell was the team's standout player during the spring and made at least one noteworthy catch during every practice that was open to the media. The 21-year-old refuses to believe that 10 fellow wideouts -- the number drafted ahead of him -- were better than him in this year's NFL draft. "He gets open a lot," second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson said. If Mitchell can get on the same page with Richardson early this year, it could easily help the Colts end their three-year playoff drought. Mitchell's physical skills are off the charts, but he was never even the most productive receiver in college at both Georgia and Texas. There's a lot to like about him in the long-term, but Mitchell will mostly be a dynasty/keeper league asset as he competes for targets in his first year with Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs.

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Brian Thomas Jr. Jun 20 11:10am CT
Brian Thomas Jr.

The Athletic's Jeff Howe writes that Jacksonville Jaguars rookie first-round wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. seemed to make a positive impression during offseason workouts. Thomas is in a good spot heading into his first year in the NFL because the Jaguars already have a cache of proven skill players, so he can come into his own at his own pace. The Jaguars will be thrilled if he can solidify an early role as a speed-driven deep threat for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Fantasy managers considering drafting him in single-year leagues in 2024 will want to keep a close eye on how the 21-year-old's skills will translate in a more physical environment in training camp this summer. The LSU product was in the shadow of Malik Nabers in college and is probably going to struggle for consistent targets in 2024 as long as Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and Evan Engram all stay healthy.

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Isaiah Likely Jun 20 11:10am CT
Isaiah Likely

Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely has been behind All-Pro veteran Mark Andrews to begin his NFL career, but his flashes of upside could lead the team to implement even more 12 personnel in 2024. According to Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic, Likely has continued to impress this offseason. "Likely's work in OTAs and minicamp gave Monken even more reason to polish those multiple tight end sets," Zrebiec wrote. "From making highlight-reel one-handed catches in the middle of the field, to finding openings underneath, to pulling away from defenders after receptions, Likely looked like a player who will be hard to keep off the field." The Coastal Carolina product averaged 13.9 PPR fantasy points per game in six contests with Andrews sidelined last season. He has top-five upside if Andrews has to miss any time this year, and he might even have rare value from a backup tight end in fantasy football.

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Tylan Wallace Jun 20 11:10am CT
Tylan Wallace

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Tylan Wallace is battling for a roster spot this offseason, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Athletic. The 25-year-old faced a similar set of circumstances last year, but he turned in a quality training camp and ultimately remained on the 53-man roster. Wallace will need to impress on special teams to earn the last chair on the wide receiver depth chart, and the absence of standout returner Deonte Harty from OTAs has allowed him to show what he can do. The 2021 fourth-round pick has just seven receptions for 67 yards to his name in 37 career games, but a 76-yard punt return for a touchdown last year showed he can make an impact in other aspects of the game.

From RotoBaller

Adam Thielen Jun 20 11:10am CT
Adam Thielen

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen quietly had a productive season in 2023, especially considering he was catching passes from a rookie quarterback in one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Thielen, who turns 34 before Week 1, racked up 103 receptions for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns in his first season with the organization. He accounted for 31% of the team's overall receiving yards. Although the team invested in wideout Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, Joe Person of the Athletic believes the veteran will remain a key contributor. "Thielen might not be counted on as much during his age-34 season, but he'll be a big part of the offense," Person wrote. Thielen is a three-time 1,000-yard receiver and has the most chemistry with Young, so he might be underrated based on his current price in drafts. On most platforms, he's being selected outside the top 70 wideouts.

From RotoBaller

Drew Lock Jun 20 11:10am CT
Drew Lock

New York Giants quarterback Drew Lock signed with the organization as a free agent this offseason, and given the struggles of Daniel Jones, many have speculated he could push for the starting job. However, Giants reporter Connor Hughes believes he is not a legitimate threat to take the QB1 job. "[Lock] isn't that good. Very obvious of that during offseason program. He's a serviceable starter, but I don't think he's a threat to be the starter unless it really hits the fan," Hughes wrote on X. The former second-round pick by the Denver Broncos out of Missouri has thrown for 5,283 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in his first 28 game appearances. He has a 9-14 record as a starter. While Jones has had plenty of downs, he's had more flashes of upside than Lock, so he's likely simply the better player. Given New York's lack of weapons, Lock would have limited fantasy upside if he's called into action this year.

From RotoBaller

Jonathan Garvin Jun 20 11:10am CT
Jonathan Garvin

The Dallas Cowboys are working out free-agent defensive lineman Jonathan Garvin, according to NFL.com. The former seventh-round pick by the Green Bay Packers played in 38 games from 2020 to 2022 and compiled 32 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two pass deflections before being released last offseason. He spent the spring with the Birmingham Stallions this year and tallied 20 tackles and 3.5 sacks en route to a UFL Championship. The Cowboys signed fellow UFL defender Gareon Conley on Tuesday, so he has a legitimate chance to earn an offseason roster spot if he impresses in his workout.

From RotoBaller

James Washington Jun 20 11:10am CT
James Washington

Veteran wide receiver James Washington, who is currently a free agent, will attempt to make a comeback, according to a post on his personal Instagram account. Washington is best known for his time in Pittsburgh, but he also worked around injuries to play in two games with the Dallas Cowboys in 2022. The former second-round pick's list of injuries included a Jones fracture, which required surgery. Washington looked to play in the NFL in 2023 but was cut by both the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts last August. Ultimately, while Washington has received steady NFL interest, his last meaningful contributions at the pro level came in 2021 when he caught 24passes for 285 yards and two touchdowns. Fast forward three years and Washington is looking to rejuvenate his career. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler notes that multiple teams have inquired about Washington. However, he remains off the fantasy radar for the time being.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Conklin Jun 20 11:10am CT
Tyler Conklin

New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin "made multiple acrobatic catches" and was "one of the stars of OTAs," according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. Rosenblatt notes that Conklin stands to gain a lot from Aaron Rodgers being healthy and available during the 2024 season. The tight end did catch 61 passes for 621 yards last year, but he failed to find the end zone and ultimately finished the campaign with the second-lowest catch rate of his career. Between making his own impact on the practice field this summer and getting Rodgers healthy to lead the offense, Conklin has a real chance to thrive in 2024. As long as he remains atop New York's depth chart through camp, he could sneak into the top-24 range for fantasy football tight ends.

From RotoBaller

Khalil Herbert Jun 20 11:10am CT
Khalil Herbert

Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert could find himself on the roster bubble as the summer continues, according to Adam Jahns of The Athletic. During a new 53-man roster projection, Jahns and Kevin Fishbain tabbed Herbert to make the team out of training camp, but Jahns also wrote that "it wouldn't be surprising if Herbert is considered on the bubble at Halas Hall." The 26-year-old appeared in one dozen games last year, rushing for 611 yards and two touchdowns on 132 carries. He also added 20 catches, 134 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. While he certainly showed flashes of meaningful production in 2023, he lost opportunities to Justin Fields at times. Fields is now gone, but he's been replaced by Caleb Williams, who is still mobile enough to make plays happen with his legs. Most importantly, though, the Bears signed D'Andre Swift, who will enter Week 1 as the starting running back, barring an unforeseen development. Therefore, Herbert, who is entering a contract year, could become expendable as the Bears opt to give more reps to Swift and second-year back Roschon Johnson.

From RotoBaller