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Lineup Prep: Super Bowl

Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pacheco is playing at high level


Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.

If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.

On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.

We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.

News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday. 

HOT PLAYS

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.

COLD PLAYS 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.

SLEEPERS

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Adam Thielen Jun 26 2:00pm CT
Adam Thielen

The Charlotte Observer's Mike Kaye projects Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen to remain as the team's slot receiver in 2024 despite the addition of Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette. The 33-year-old Thielen managed to stay fantasy relevant in his first year in Carolina in 2023 despite rookie quarterback Bryce Young and the offense being one of the worst in the league. Thielen caught 103 of his 137 targets for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns in 17 starts. He should continue to be a safety blanket for Young this year, but the additions of both Johnson and Legette will inevitably take valuable targets away. Fantasy managers certainly shouldn't expect another 1,000-yard campaign for Thielen in 2024. You should be targeting Thielen as merely a late-round flier for receiver depth in deeper fantasy leagues.

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Deane Leonard Jun 26 1:30pm CT
Deane Leonard

Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Tarheeb Still might have been the most surprising player in the team's secondary during offseason workouts after the team's pass defense was their Achilles heel last year. Still was the team's fifth-round pick this year at 137th overall out of Maryland. He had an interception and had multiple pass deflections throughout minicamp. Safety Derwin James Jr. pointed to Still as a player who impressed him, while defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said he has appreciated how much Still has improved since the start of the offseason program. "He made a bunch of really nice plays out there," Minter said. The 22-year-old defensive back thrives in man-to-man coverage due to his aggressive and physical style of play. Still could immediately compete for a starting job with Deane Leonard this summer.

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Josey Jewell Jun 26 1:20pm CT
Josey Jewell

The Denver Broncos signed linebacker Cody Barton in free agency this offseason thinking that he would be a prime contributor on special teams and could carve out a niche on defense if things went well. However, Barton has put himself squarely in the battle for the starting middle linebacker job to replace the departed Josey Jewell. He will be competing with Jonas Griffith, who missed last year due to a torn ACL he suffered in training camp. Barton got plenty of work with the defensive starters this offseason in organized team activities and minicamp, so he will arrive to training camp this summer to compete for a starting job. The former third-round selection by the Seattle Seahawks in 2019 out of Utah has had 100-plus combined tackles in each of the last two years with the Seahawks and Washington Commanders, so there's a chance Barton jumps onto the IDP radar if he seizes a starting job and runs with it.

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Anthony Richardson Jun 26 1:10pm CT
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard said on The GM Shuffle podcast that second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder) will be "full-go" for the start of training camp at the end of July despite dealing with some shoulder fatigue during offseason activities. The shoulder soreness was something expected after Richardson had season-ending surgery on his right shoulder during his rookie season in 2023. Despite the fact that the 22-year-old former fourth overall pick played in just four games last year, his elite rushing abilities make him an attractive midrange QB1 going into his sophomore season. The 6-foot-4, 244-pounder also has above-average arm strength and has an incredibly high ceiling for fantasy managers if he can remain healthy. Once the elite names at the QB position come off the board in fantasy drafts, Richardson will be hard to pass up.

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Chidobe Awuzie Jun 26 1:10pm CT
Chidobe Awuzie

Tennessee Titans undrafted free-agent cornerback Gabe Jeudy-Lally took full advantage of available repetitions during organized team activities and minicamp this offseason due to veterans Chidobe Awuzie and L'Jarius Sneed having limited participation. Jeudy-Lally said his length and comfort in press coverage gave him confidence to play in defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson's aggressive scheme. "If I get up there and give myself the opportunity to win by getting my hands on guys and being in good position, it allows me to use my length to my ability, and everything falls into play from there," Jeudy-Lally said. He held his own in coverage against both receivers Treylon Burks and DeAndre Hopkins, so he could be a defensive back to watch in training camp this summer for the Titans.

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Tre'Davious White Jun 26 10:13am CT
Tre'Davious White

Los Angeles Rams new cornerback Tre'Davious White (Achilles) signed a one-year deal with the Rams on April 9 after being released by the Buffalo Bills. White continues to rehab this offseason after tearing his Achilles in Week 4 of last year. He was working off to the side with trainers for the majority of organized team activities before participating in the walkthrough in the final week. It remains to be seen how much White will be able to do in training camp this summer. "He's making good progress. He was able to partake in the walkthrough. It's obviously a significant injury that he's overcome. He's gotten a lot of good stuff done on the side. You could see he's really locked in and engaged in the meeting setting," head coach Sean McVay said. White's 18 career interceptions are tied for 11th-most among active cornerbacks, per Pro Football Reference.

Jalen Brooks Jun 25 10:50pm CT
Jalen Brooks

Dallas Cowboys wide receivers Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks are both candidates to open 2024 in the third slot on the depth chart behind CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks, according to Todd Archer of ESPN.com. Both players have showcased their talent during OTAs and are pushing to make the WR3 competition interesting this summer. In terms of the players' specific skill sets, Archer wrote, "Brooks was able to work through traffic well, especially on tight throws on slants. Tolbert worked all three receiver spots and was able to make plays at all different levels." There's clearly a path for both receivers to get involved this season, and Dallas has shown that its WR3 can have bursts of fantasy relevance in the past. Perhaps Tolbert or Brooks could be a late-round sleeper in redraft leagues this year.

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Nikko Remigio Jun 25 10:50pm CT
Nikko Remigio

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Nikko Remigio impressed while running with the first-team offense and is pushing to earn a spot on the 53-man roster, according to Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. An undrafted free agent back in 2023, Remigio earned more reps this summer with Xavier Worthy (hamstring) sidelined. Remigio may struggle to pass the likes of Worthy, Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney in the pecking order, but his strong summer and talent as a kickoff returner could be enough to secure a roster spot and earn a few extra looks on offense. He's off the fantasy radar but is a rising name to watch as the 2024 campaign draws closer.

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Kemoko Turay Jun 25 7:53pm CT
Kemoko Turay

Free-agent DE Kemoko Turay (Falcons) is expected to receive interest from multiple teams, according to sources.

From TheHuddle

Dante Pettis Jun 25 6:33pm CT
Dante Pettis

Chicago Bears WR Dante Pettis (undisclosed) missed a majority of the offseason workouts because of soft tissue injuries.

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Dallin Holker Jun 25 3:40pm CT
Dallin Holker

New Orleans Saints tight end Dallin Holker was a priority undrafted free-agent signing by the team following the 2024 NFL Draft, and with Juwan Johnson (foot) potentially missing the rest of the offseason due to foot surgery, he has a chance to crack the Week 1 roster. "It was apparent the Saints liked Holker when they guaranteed him $235,000 to sign as an undrafted rookie free agent this spring," ESPN's Katherine Terrell wrote. "Holker has a real opportunity to make the team now that Juwan Johnson is sidelined indefinitely by a foot injury. Foster Moreau is the only veteran tight end on the roster with experience, which means Holker, who has had an impressive showing so far, could find playing time quickly." Holker had a quiet three-year career at BYU before posting 64 receptions for 767 yards and six touchdowns in 2023 at Colorado State. While he wasn't an overly impressive athlete during the pre-draft process, he could have a path to opportunity. He should enter the fantasy radar in deep tight-end-premium setups, but he's likely not worth a draft choice yet.

From RotoBaller

Lawrence Cager Jun 25 3:30pm CT
Lawrence Cager

New York Giants tight end Lawrence Cager has hauled in just 19 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns through the first 20 games of his NFL career, but after the retirement of Darren Waller, he could earn legitimate playing time in 2024. According to Giants reporter Jordan Raanan, Cager has capitalized on his opportunities this offseason. "It looked this spring like Cager and fourth-round pick Theo Johnson will be asked to fill that pass-catching role," Raanan wrote. "Both received some first-team reps and made plays in what primarily serves as a passing camp. Coach Brian Daboll even mentioned that Cager was 'probably one of the most improved players throughout the offseason,' which could open the door for him to make a significant contribution this season." Expectations should be tempered for the 26-year-old, but there are unexpected tight-end breakouts every year, so his performance at training camp later this summer should be monitored.

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John Metchie III Jun 25 3:20pm CT
John Metchie III

Houston Texans wide receiver John Metchie III has had a slow start to his NFL career, but there have been plenty of factors to cause the quiet start. The Alabama product missed his entire 2022 rookie season coming off an ACL tear and being diagnosed with acute promyelocytic leukemia. He appeared in 16 games in 2023 but caught just 16 passes for 158 yards. However, ESPN Texans reporter DJ Bien-Aime suggests Metchie could be back to form in 2024. "Metchie is flashing signs of what made him a second-round pick in the 2022 draft." Bien-Aime wrote. His explosiveness appears back. He has also been in the rotation with the first-team offense." While Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell are locked into the starting lineup, Metchie has plenty of fantasy football intrigue if he secures the WR4 role. He'd be one injury away from entering the starting lineup in C.J. Stroud's offense, meaning he should be on the fantasy radar in deep leagues.

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Ray-Ray McCloud Jun 25 3:10pm CT
Ray-Ray McCloud

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud signed with the team this offseason, but he largely went unnoticed since the Falcons had a busy offseason of new acquisitions. However, ESPN Falcons reporter Marc Raimondi said McCloud could be more involved in the offense than expected. "Most figured McCloud, a veteran going into his seventh year, would make his mark primarily as a return man," Raimondi said. "But he also got reps with Atlanta's first team this spring and performed well, catching passes from Cousins for big plays. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson figures to use many wide receivers. McCloud will be in that mix." The 27-year-old has just 768 receiving yards and one touchdown through his first 77 games, so it's tough to get too excited about him. However, this report should at least put him on the fantasy radar in deep leagues.

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Trey Sermon Jun 25 2:00pm CT
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With no clear replacement for Zack Moss after he left in free agency this offseason, the likeliest option to ascend to the No. 2 running back spot behind starter Jonathan Taylor appears to be Indianapolis Colts RB Trey Sermon. His hard running style has earned him the first crack at the job during offseason workouts. Sermon is on his third team in four seasons in the NFL, but this is the closest he's come to establishing some consistency in his career. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2023. Things are looking up for Sermon with training camp on the horizon, but fellow backups Evan Hull and Tyler Goodson will also be factors in the competition this summer and in the preseason. The 25-year-old Sermon had 35 carries for 160 yards last year in Indy and would be a popular waiver-wire pickup in fantasy leagues if Taylor misses more time with an injury in 2024.

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Keion White Jun 25 1:20pm CT
Keion White

New England Patriots first-year head coach Jerod Mayo mentioned defensive lineman/edge rusher Keion White when asked if there was a player this offseason that has surprised him so far. "Keion has kind of taken that step forward as far as being a leader -- not as much vocally, but you see him actually leading the groups and working well," Mayo said of the 2023 second-rounder. White played 45.8 percent of the defensive snaps as a rookie last year and looks primed to increase that number in his sophomore campaign in 2024. In 16 games played (four starts) in his rookie season in 2023, White compiled 26 tackles (12 solo), one sack, three tackles for loss, five QB hits and three pass breakups for the Patriots secondary. Look for him to have a bigger role this year.

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DJ Turner Jun 25 1:20pm CT
DJ Turner

Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Dax Hill entered the offseason in a precarious spot. The first-rounder in 2022 was the starting free safety last year in an experiment that didn't go well. As a result, Hill was moved to outside cornerback, where he appears to be taking charge in a position battle with DJ Turner, a second-rounder from 2023 who started 12 games his rookie season. Hill has taken the position change in stride and was disruptive in 7-on-7 drills during mandatory minicamp earlier this month. He is shaping up to remain a useful player for the Bengals' secondary as they enter training camp this summer. The 23-year-old had 110 tackles (72 solo), 1.5 sacks, six tackles for loss, five QB hits, two interceptions and 11 pass breakups in 17 starts last year, but he may be less productive in IDP fantasy formats with the move to corner.

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Ray-Ray McCloud Jun 25 1:13pm CT
Ray-Ray McCloud

Atlanta Falcons WR Ray-Ray McCloud 'got reps with Atlanta's first team this spring and performed well,' according to ESPN.com's Marc Raimondi.

Fantasy Spin: McCloud will be worth using in leagues that reward fantasy points for return yardage, but the odds he earns significant playing time on offense - barring a rash of injuries - are low. Drake London and Darnell Mooney will start, while Rondale Moore will likely get the nod in three-receiver sets. McCloud will likely have to beat out sixth-round draft pick Casey Washington, who received some positive offseason hype, to be the team's fourth receiver.

From TheHuddle

Russell Wilson Jun 25 1:10pm CT
Russell Wilson

Unless something unforeseen happens, quarterback Russell Wilson will be the Pittsburgh Steelers' starting QB in Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons this fall. It's his job to lose in training camp and the preseason. "I'm really pleased with what I heard coming (out) of there with Russ," NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah said on the Rich Eisen Show. "I know there's been a lot of talk with him and Justin Fields. It's Russell Wilson's gig. Everything I've been told, they've been impressed with how he's thrown. Throwing with anticipation." The Athletic's Mark Kaboly also listed Fields as a "loser" in OTAs and minicamp because he feels Wilson has a chokehold on the starting gig right now. It doesn't really change anything from when head coach Mike Tomlin said Wilson would be in pole position as the starter earlier this offseason. Wilson is also embracing a leadership role and has embraced the city of Pittsburgh.

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Jody Fortson Jun 25 1:10pm CT
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The Miami Dolphins signed veteran Jonnu Smith this offseason to provide a receiving threat at tight end, but Jody Fortson Jr. stood out during spring practices. Fortson has a wide catch radius and has flashed the ability to pick up yardage after the catch. The former Kansas City Chiefs tight end has a challenging road to a meaningful workload in 2024 with both Smith and Durham Smythe on the roster, as well as the plethora of pass-catchers in Miami's offense, but the early returns on Fortson say he will be able to contribute when called upon. The 28-year-old spent all of last year on the Chiefs' Injured Reserve after having shoulder surgery, but he's healthy now and is a tight end to watch for now as we approach training camp this summer. The fifth-year pro could become an intriguing waiver-wire pickup this year if one of Smith or Smythe miss time due to injury.

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