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Lineup Prep: Super Bowl

Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pacheco is playing at high level


Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.

If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.

On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.

We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.

News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday. 

HOT PLAYS

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.

COLD PLAYS 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.

SLEEPERS

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 4

Player Notes
Rome Odunze Sep 30 10:10am MT
Rome Odunze

Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze had a quiet outing in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams, catching just one of his three targets for 10 yards. This performance was a letdown after his breakout game the previous week. The return of veteran receiver Keenan Allen (heel) likely affected Odunze's targets, as he shifted back to a No. 3 role with Allen coming off a two-game absence. Consequently, Odunze saw a notable decline in production. Throughout his rookie season, he has struggled to make a consistent impact, recording two or fewer receptions in three of four games. His target and yardage totals this week marked his lowest yet, leaving him with ample opportunity for improvement in a Week 5 home matchup against the Panthers.

From RotoBaller

Cole Kmet Sep 30 10:10am MT
Cole Kmet

Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet had a modest outing against the struggling Los Angeles Rams secondary, finishing with three catches for 34 yards, including a long reception of 22 yards. After a quiet performance in Week 1, Kmet has maintained steady involvement in the offense, registering at least three targets in each of the last three games. However, this game was a disappointment following his breakout performance last week. The return of veteran receiver Keenan Allen (heel) may have affected Kmet's target share, as he experienced a notable reduction in workload compared to his 10-catch game against the Colts in Week 3. Kmet tied for second on the team in receptions and was the runner-up in receiving yards for the day. Nonetheless, his production on Sunday is likely more in line with his typical performance than what he achieved in the loss to Indianapolis.

From RotoBaller

Keenan Allen Sep 30 10:10am MT
Keenan Allen

Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen had a muted return from injury in Week 4 against the Rams. He finished the game with just three receptions for 19 yards on three targets. Coming back from a two-game absence due to a heel injury, Allen played a secondary role in the passing attack as Caleb Williams threw for only 157 yards and one touchdown. However, he may see a more prominent role in a favorable Week 5 home matchup against the Panthers. While Allen is a game-changer, his value for fantasy managers largely depends on the Bears' ability to establish a more consistent offensive rhythm.

From RotoBaller

D.J. Moore Sep 30 9:40am MT
D.J. Moore

Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore capitalized on a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Rams' struggling secondary in Week 4. He caught three of six targets for 22 yards and a touchdown in the Bears' 24-18 victory. Moore tied with Cole Kmet for second on the team in both receptions and targets. The highlight of his day came when he made a perfectly executed nine-yard touchdown catch from Caleb Williams, extending the Bears' lead to 17-9 late in the third quarter. Although his production was slightly lower this week, it's likely an outlier, considering his consistent involvement in previous games. Moore will look to rebound against a weak Panthers secondary at home in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

D'Andre Swift Sep 30 9:30am MT
D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift delivered his best performance of the season in Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. Swift totaled 165 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown, leading the team in rushing and receiving yards. The Bears successfully established a run game by utilizing Swift and getting him into open space. He finished with 16 carries for 93 yards, averaging a solid 5.8 yards per carry, and added seven receptions for 72 yards. Notably, he broke off a 36-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, extending the lead to 24-15. Signed to a three-year, $24 million contract in March, Swift managed 114 total yards through the first three weeks, averaging only 1.8 yards per carry. The Bears combined for 131 rushing yards after only managing 63 against the Colts. Swift also achieved season highs in receptions and receiving yards, making it a successful outing both on the field and for fantasy football owners. With the lead-back role firmly in his hands, he will next face the Panthers' defense in a Week 5 home matchup.

From RotoBaller

Roschon Johnson Sep 30 9:30am MT
Roschon Johnson

Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson saw increased usage in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams, serving as a change-of-pace option to help secure tough yards. He scored a one-yard touchdown in the second quarter, capitalizing on a strip-sack by Montez Sweat deep in Rams territory. Johnson's downhill rushing style made him an ideal choice for goal-line situations, while D'Andre Swift, who had struggled early in the season, found his rhythm once the Bears got him into open space. Chicago finished the game with 131 rushing yards, a significant improvement from the 63 they managed against the Colts. After impressing in his first outing of the season in Week 3, Johnson solidified his role as the clear No. 2 running back behind Swift. Although Swift had his best game yet, Johnson may have established himself enough to maintain his change-of-pace role and secure future goal-line opportunities.

From RotoBaller

Caleb Williams Sep 30 9:20am MT
Caleb Williams

This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had a strong performance against the Los Angeles Rams. Once Williams and the Bears' offense found their rhythm, they began to string together the kind of possessions the team and its fans hope to see regularly. It was Williams' most efficient outing yet, as he posted a quarterback rating of 106.6 and led four scoring drives. He threw for 157 yards and a touchdown, following a Bears rookie record of 363 yards on 52 attempts in a loss to Indianapolis the previous week. Williams described this game as a step forward, completing 17 of 23 passes, including a nine-yard touchdown to DJ Moore in the third quarter. Notably, he did not commit any turnovers after facing issues in the previous game, where he was intercepted twice and lost a fumble. This week, he took care of the football and orchestrated multiple drives that resulted in touchdowns. Williams bounced back from two consecutive games with multiple turnovers, showcasing an encouraging development as he prepares for a favorable Week 5 matchup against the Panthers next Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Wil Lutz Sep 30 9:10am MT
Wil Lutz

Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz came into the Week 4 contest against the New York Jets with a perfect 9-for-9 mark on field goals and 3-for-3 mark on extra-point tries through the first three weeks of the 2024 season. Unfortunately, he was not able to extend his perfect streak in the 10-9 upset win over the Jets on Sunday, going 1-for-2 on his field goals while making his lone extra-point try in a game that featured just one touchdown on the day. The 30-year-old's first miss of the year came from 50 yards out as the Broncos tried to make it a four-point lead late in the contest. In his defense, the field was wet from a steady rain all day. Lutz has been reliable so far in his time in Denver, dating back to last year, but he measures up as a volatile fantasy kicker in an offense that is averaging just 15.5 points per game through four weeks. He will have a little more streaming potential in deep fantasy leagues in Week 5 against the division-rival Raiders in Denver.

From RotoBaller

Josh Reynolds Sep 30 9:00am MT
Josh Reynolds

Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds entered the Week 4 contest against the New York Jets as Denver's leading receiver through the first three games. But in the 10-9 rain-soaked upset victory on Sunday over the Jets in Week 4, rookie quarterback Bo Nix only looked Reynolds' way two times, and he was unable to catch either of the two targets. We warned fantasy managers that Reynolds was an extremely volatile and desperate flex play in an offense that is among the worst in the NFL after four weeks of the 2024 campaign. Reynolds and the Broncos should be able to move the ball much better in a Week 5 divisional matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders, but expectations should remain low for Broncos pass-catchers not named Courtland Sutton. The 29-year-old caught 11 of his 17 targets for 174 yards and no touchdowns through the first three games.

From RotoBaller

Isaiah Likely Sep 30 9:00am MT
Isaiah Likely

Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely led the tight end group in receiving again but didn't ultimately make much of a difference in a blowout victory over the Buffalo Bills. The Coastal Carolina product finished with one reception for 26 yards on two targets. His counterpart, Mark Andrews, only received one target and failed to catch it. Likely's Week 1 performance is starting to look like a big outlier, as both tight ends have combined for just eight receptions and 107 yards since then. Likely seems to be the better of the two, as Andrews has posted goose eggs in the last two games, but neither one of them has contributed much towards a fantasy win. The Ravens will go on the road in Week 5 and take on one of their AFC North rivals in the Cincinnati Bengals.

From RotoBaller

Greg Dulcich Sep 30 9:00am MT
Greg Dulcich

Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich failed to haul in his only target of the day in Sunday's 10-9 upset win over the New York Jets on the road on Sunday. Both teams struggled to move the ball on a rain-soaked afternoon in the Big Apple, with Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix throwing for a total of 60 yards. Dulcich had five catches on 11 targets for 28 yards through the first two weeks of the season, but he has zero catches on just one target in the last two weeks as Nix continues to struggle as a passer early in his NFL career. Things are looking up for this lackluster offense with a Week 5 divisional clash at home against the Las Vegas Raiders, but Dulcich shouldn't be anywhere near starting fantasy lineups, even in two-TE leagues. Nix can barely support one receiver in fantasy, let alone an oft-injured tight end.

From RotoBaller

Mark Andrews Sep 30 8:50am MT
Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews continues his disappointing stretch of play in another winning effort by the team. The veteran especially looked bad after uncharacteristically dropping a wide-open catch that would have gone for a first down. That was his only target of the game as Lamar Jackson only threw the ball 18 times with the ground game cutting up the Bills' defense with ease. Andrews now has a total of six receptions for 65 yards and no touchdowns while putting up goose eggs in two straight weeks. His yards per game total of 16.3 is the worst mark of his career so far with his second-worst coming in at 34.5 during his rookie campaign. Moving forward, Andrews isn't a reliable starter, even in their AFC North matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Jaleel McLaughlin Sep 30 8:40am MT
Jaleel McLaughlin

Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin and the team's ground game was the most productive its been all year in the 10-9 upset win over the New York Jets on Sunday in Week 4. McLaughlin averaged 5.11 yards per carry on nine attempts, finishing with 46 rushing yards. He caught his only target for no gain. The 24-year-old could see more run moving forward if the back injury that caused Tyler Badie to be carted off is serious, but McLaughlin is still the clear No. 2 to Javonte Williams in an offense that has averaged 15.5 points through four games, which is fifth-worst in the NFL. McLaughlin was out-touched 18 to 10 and out-gained 80 to 46 in the win over the Jets. Even in a plus matchup in Week 5 against the division-rival Raiders, McLaughlin will belong on benches in most fantasy leagues. He's currently rostered in 22% of Yahoo leagues and has very little to no standalone value right now.

From RotoBaller

Zay Flowers Sep 30 8:40am MT
Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers was virtually invisible in the team's blowout win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night. As the number-one receiver, Flowers only saw two targets, one reception, and 10 yards with no carries. The game script was very run-heavy in this game, much like their game plan against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. The difference was that there weren't many manufactured touches for Flowers in this one. Justice Hill was the one to get the lion's share of targets in this game as the trend continues with Lamar Jackson only being able to feed one pass-catcher per game. Flowers will go up against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5 who are currently giving up an average of 25.6 fantasy points per game to opposing receiver groups in half-PPR formats.

From RotoBaller

Justice Hill Sep 30 8:30am MT
Justice Hill

Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill found the end zone for the first time this season as the Ravens dismantled the Buffalo Bills by a score of 35-10. Hill only saw four carries for 18 yards on the ground, but did most of his damage in the passing game. He saw six targets which he turned into six receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. The next-most targeted player in this game was Derrick Henry and Nelson Agholor who received three targets each. Hill has explosive ability when it comes to catching passes out of the backfield, and the Ravens' offense seems to rely a lot less on deeper throws this season. Head coach John Harbaugh will continue to get him involved, but Hill continues to be game script dependent, which would lead to more of a flex play in deeper leagues. He'll look to continue this type of performance against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Lamar Jackson Sep 30 8:20am MT
Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson puts together another QB1 performance in a blowout victory over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night. The two-time MVP finished the game with 156 yards and two touchdowns on 13-for-18 throwing as he added 54 yards and another touchdown on the ground with six carries. He did lose a fumble in the second quarter but made all the right plays outside of the one mistake. Currently, out of the top five fantasy finishers at quarterback, Jackson is the only one with fewer than 30 pass attempts. On the year, before the Monday night games take place, Jackson is the QB2 behind Jayden Daniels who had a fantastic game of his own. Jackson looked like a poised, veteran leader on Sunday night, as the offense finally returned to its run-first style of play. He'll go up against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5 who just gave up a top-ten fantasy outing to Andy Dalton in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

Derrick Henry Sep 30 8:10am MT
Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry put together one of the biggest performances in franchise history under the bright lights of primetime against the Buffalo Bills during a 35-10 blowout win. The King finished the game with 199 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries while adding three receptions for 10 yards and another score through the air. Henry could have had a second rushing touchdown but fumbled right on the goal line which was recovered by fullback Patrick Ricard for a touchdown. With 199 rushing yards, Henry posted the fifth-most in a single game in Ravens franchise history while registering the longest touchdown in the team's 29 years. This was also his first touchdown catch since 2019 and the fourth of his career. The Ravens will look to keep the good times rolling against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Raheem Mostert Sep 30 8:00am MT
Raheem Mostert

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (chest) is currently listed as questionable for the Monday night contest against the Tennessee Titans, but he's not expected to be upgraded to active. According to Tom Pelissero, the veteran back will miss another game with this chest injury which will already be his third missed game of the season. At 32 years old and with a long injury history, this has always been the risk with Mostert in terms of fantasy football. De'Von Achane will get as many opportunities on the ground and through the air as possible while Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright will split the backup duties against a Titans team who's on the tougher side against opposing running backs, giving up 16.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

From RotoBaller

Elijah Higgins Sep 30 7:50am MT
Elijah Higgins

Arizona Cardinals tight end Elijah Higgins caught two of his three targets for 12 yards in Sunday's loss to the Washington Commanders. Filling in for the injured Trey McBride (concussion), Higgins had a favorable matchup against a Commanders defense that has struggled in pass coverage this season. However, he failed to capitalize, as the Cardinals managed just 142 passing yards despite shifting to a pass-heavy game script. Although Higgins was on the field most of the snaps, there seemed to be no emphasis on getting him the ball. Given his limited involvement in this opportunity, Higgins remains a long shot as a streaming option next week against the San Francisco 49ers.

From RotoBaller

Greg Dortch Sep 30 7:50am MT
Greg Dortch

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Greg Dortch is still searching for his first touchdown of the season after the Cardinals suffered a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Commanders. Dortch caught all four of his targets for 38 yards which tied him for second-most receiving yards on the team with Michael Wilson. Despite being down for three quarters in this game, the Cardinals threw the ball only 22 times compared to 32 attempts on the ground. Dortch was able to at least catch 100% of the throws his way, but it hasn't turned into much fantasy success at all. Before the Monday night games kickoff for Week 4, Dortch sits at WR66 in half-PPR formats, and Trey McBride will likely be back soon, which turns into even fewer opportunities for him. The Cardinals will take on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5 on the road.

From RotoBaller