Guest of the League
Best Ball SCOUT 78
FFL: Week 4 | NFL: Week 4

Lineup Prep: Super Bowl

Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pacheco is playing at high level


Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.

If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.

On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.

We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.

News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday. 

HOT PLAYS

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.

COLD PLAYS 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.

SLEEPERS

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 4

Player Notes
Marvin Harrison Jr. Sep 29 9:10pm CT
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Despite the Arizona Cardinals' struggles to score in Sunday's 42-14 loss to the Washington Commanders, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. found the end zone for the fourth time this season. In addition to the touchdown, Harrison Jr. caught five passes for 45 yards, securing all but one of his targets. He has emerged as a reliable playmaker for the Cardinals, someone they can depend on in tough situations. Harrison Jr. will likely remain a focal point in their game plan as the offense regains its scoring rhythm. Fantasy managers should continue to keep him in their starting lineups, even with a tough Week 5 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

From RotoBaller

Colby Parkinson Sep 29 9:10pm CT
Colby Parkinson

Los Angeles Rams tight end Colby Parkinson hauled in 4-of-7 targets for 33 yards in Sunday's 24-18 loss to the Chicago Bears. His long gain of the day went for just 11 yards. Parkinson and the rest of the Rams' passing attack couldn't get much going on a day where their only touchdown came on the back of a three-yard score on the ground by Kyren Williams. Since the loss of superstar wideout Cooper Kupp (ankle), quarterback Matthew Stafford has not thrown for more than 224 yards or more than one touchdown in a single outing. The 25-year-old tight end has seen his volume tick up each of the past three weeks, but he's yet to have a standout game despite the lack of quality options in LA's aerial assault. His seven targets were a season-high, but 7.3 total fantasy points are only good enough for the current TE14 on the week. Unless circumstances drastically change around him, the former fourth-round pick will not be a recommended fantasy option in Week 5 when the team hosts the visiting Green Bay Packers.

From RotoBaller

Jonathan Mingo Sep 29 9:00pm CT
Jonathan Mingo

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo racked up three catches and 24 yards on five targets in the team's 34-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The second-year wideout finished with the third-most yards and targets on the team but finished one reception shy of Chuba Hubbard for the same honor. The Panthers didn't get back into the win column in this one, but they at least made it a game against a Bengals squad starving for a win. After two weeks of an Andy Dalton-led offense, it is evident that the team is in much better hands with him under center. Mingo's five targets matched the previous season-high he accrued back in Week 1, but veteran WR Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette each accumulated double-digit targets in this one. The former second-round pick will be tough to trust moving forward as more than a dart throw option on a weekly basis until his usage ticks up in Carolina's passing attack. The Panthers will take on the 2-2 Chicago Bears on the road in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

James Conner Sep 29 8:50pm CT
James Conner

Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner delivered another solid performance in Sunday's 42-14 loss to the Washington Commanders, rushing 18 times for 104 yards and a touchdown. After managing just 17 rushing yards in the Week 3 loss to the Detroit Lions, Conner quickly put those concerns to rest with a strong bounce-back effort. He ran the ball effectively, showing power to break through tacklers and displaying impressive bursts. Conner should remain a fixture in fantasy lineups, as the Cardinals' offense will likely continue to lean on him while trying to snap their scoring slump. The veteran running back will look to build on Sunday's performance in a tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Zamir White Sep 29 8:50pm CT
Zamir White

The Cleveland Browns defense turned in a solid effort in a 20-16 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. Cleveland notched two sacks while forcing one turnover while holding the Raiders to 268 yards of total offense in the game. The Browns were led by Myles Garrett, who notched both of the team's sacks, and Isaiah McGuire, who forced a Zamir White fumble in the close loss. Cleveland's defense will have their work cut out for them in Week 5's road matchup against a red-hot Washington Commanders offense.

From RotoBaller

Parris Campbell Sep 29 8:50pm CT
Parris Campbell

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Parris Campbell caught all four of his targets for 17 yards and a touchdown during the team's 33-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 27-year-old scored on a one-yard grab for the Eagles' first touchdown of the game but did little else in this contest of note. The Eagles wide receiver corps combined for just 34 yards in this game with the absence of A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion). It is tough to say if Campbell will head back to the practice squad after this game with Britain Covey (shoulder, IR) out for the foreseeable future. His touchdown grab could have solidified his roster spot heading into the Eagles bye week, but he is not a name to keep an eye on for waiver purposes in redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller

Jahan Dotson Sep 29 8:50pm CT
Jahan Dotson

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jahan Dotson caught two of his four targets for 11 yards during the team's 33-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The former first-round pick had yet another shot to break out or even prove he belongs as the No. 3 receiver in Philadelphia, but again came up short. None of the Eagles' wide receivers did much in this contest, as they combined for just 34 yards while tight end Dallas Goedert nearly doubled their total on his own. The bye week could not have come at a better time for the Eagles, as they should enter Week 6 with their top targets A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) for their game against the Cleveland Browns. Dotson should be ignored in all redraft leagues for the time being.

From RotoBaller

Saquon Barkley Sep 29 8:40pm CT
Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley took 10 carries for 84 yards and caught two of four targets for 32 yards during the team's 33-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 27-year-old had another slow start in this game but rumbled for 59 yards on the first play of the second half to set up the Eagles for their second touchdown of the day. It was a play that saved him from having a poor fantasy outing, but if this is the floor for Barkley's production as a fantasy player, then these fantasy managers are in good shape. This was a tough matchup where the Buccaneers were able to key in on the Eagles' star back due to the absence of wideouts A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) so being able to extend his 100 or more yards combined streak intact is impressive to say the least. Philadelphia was seemingly blessed with the early bye week, and the team will look to regroup and regain their top two pass catchers before their Week 6 matchup against the Cleveland Browns.

From RotoBaller

Hunter Henry Sep 29 8:40pm CT
Hunter Henry

New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry caught two of his three targets for 12 yards during Sunday's loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Henry had a huge performance back in Week 2, but if you exclude that contest, he's averaging just two catches, 13 yards, and zero touchdowns per game. The veteran tight end is a talented player, but he simply doesn't command enough volume in the Patriots' subpar offense to justify starting him in most fantasy leagues. In fact, Henry can be dropped to waivers in leagues with 14 or fewer teams. There's always a chance he'll find the end zone in a given week, including next Sunday versus the struggling Miami Dolphins, but the odds are relatively slim and you're better off taking a flier on a different tight end with more upside. Henry falls outside the top 24 tight ends for fantasy football in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Jerry Jeudy Sep 29 8:40pm CT
Jerry Jeudy

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy caught six of his nine targets for 72 yards in a 20-16 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. Jeudy wound up leading the Browns in receiving yardage and targets while finishing behind only Jerome Ford in catches in the close loss. The veteran wideout has been a solid addition to the Cleveland offense this season, reaching at least 72 receiving yards in two of his four games while catching one touchdown. Jeudy remains behind Amari Cooper in the receiver pecking order but the Browns have been throwing the ball frequently enough to allow him to produce solid fantasy numbers. Jeudy will be a solid WR3 heading into a plus matchup against the Washington Commanders in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Dallas Goedert Sep 29 8:40pm CT
Dallas Goedert

Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert caught seven of eight targets for 62 yards during the team's 33-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The veteran tight end did not have another massive performance like last week, but was the only pass catcher that was on the same page as quarterback Jalen Hurts in this game and was able to lead the team in receiving yards for the second week in a row. The absence of A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) was felt heavily in this game and while their loss has been Geodert's fantasy gain, the bye week has come at the perfect time to remedy that issue. Fantasy managers will need to find a suitable replacement for the next week before plugging the 29-year-old back in during his Week 6 matchup against the Browns.

From RotoBaller

Joey Slye Sep 29 8:40pm CT
Joey Slye

New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye went 2-for-2 on field goals and also converted his lone extra point attempt during Sunday's Week 4 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Slye showed off his strong leg, hitting field goals from 54 and 63 yards out. His performance was highly rewarding for managers whose leagues award extra points for successful field goals from beyond 50 yards. Even as the Patriots' offense struggles, there's a clear path for Slye to achieve fantasy relevance. On the year, he's 8-for-9 on field goals and 4-for-4 on extra points. The stats speak for themselves, and Slye's stats suggest that he's a solid streamer heading into Week 5 versus the Miami Dolphins.

From RotoBaller

Christian Watson Sep 29 8:40pm CT
Christian Watson

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (ankle) was forced from his team's 31-29 loss to the Minnesota Vikings due to an ankle injury near the end of the first quarter. Watson ended the matchup without a catch on one target before his exit. After the game, head coach Matt LaFleur spoke with the 25-year-old wideout, and he said, "he told me he thought it was just a sprain." A sprain would be the best-case scenario for the former Bison, but whether it's of the low or high-ankle sprain variety is unclear. We're sure to get an update on him over the coming days, but you'd have to think he's at least a candidate for limited practice this week after having to get carted off the field. With the former second-round pick on the sideline, wide receivers Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and tight end Tucker Kraft all racked up at least eight targets. If Watson is forced to miss time, it's likely that quartet would benefit the most from his absence. The Pack will travel to LA next Sunday to face the Rams in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Dustin Hopkins Sep 29 8:40pm CT
Dustin Hopkins

Cleveland Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins made his lone field goal and made one of his two extra points in a 20-16 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. Hopkins drilled a 56-yard field goal in the first quarter but his missed extra point in the fourth quarter was tough as it put the Browns at a four-point deficit as they were attempting to complete the comeback. Hopkins has now made five of his six field goals and five of six extra points through four games this season. He will be a solid fantasy option heading into what could be a high-scoring game against the Washington Commanders in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Cade Otton Sep 29 8:30pm CT
Cade Otton

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton was basically invisible to begin the season, but has turned it around over the last few weeks. On Sunday, Otton hauled in six of his nine targets for 52 yards in the win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Otton now has 13 receptions on 17 targets for 99 yards over the last two games. Otton remains third on the pecking order, but he has found a way to produce over the last two games. He has forced himself into the TE2 discussion heading into next week's matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.

From RotoBaller

Breece Hall Sep 29 8:30pm CT
Breece Hall

Following Sunday's 10-9 loss to the Denver Broncos, New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh commented on running backs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen and how they might be used in goal-line situations moving forward. Specifically, reporters asked Saleh why he chose not to sub out Hall for Allen when the team was deep in Broncos' territory. "It was still kind of early when that play came about, but definitely something we can look at," said Saleh, "We're always going to lean on Breece, he's our workhorse back... It's definitely something to look at." The comments in question regard a series of plays where New York had a first-and-goal from the one-yard line, and Hall was stuffed on first and second-down handoffs. Braelon Allen was subbed in on third, but the Jets ran a pass play that fell incomplete. Despite intending to go for it on fourth-down, a penalty forced them to settle for a field goal. It's encouraging to see the Jets head coach give his RB1 the vote of confidence. However, one has to wonder if this will affect his decision-making for the remainder of the season. The rookie RB was a far more effective rusher Sunday, averaging 4.3 yards on his eight carries, while the presumed starter finished with four yards on ten attempts. The former Cyclone is unlikely to lose his job as the 1A in New York's backfield, but he may lose out on some valuable touches moving forward. The Jets will be the "home" team in Week 5 when they square off against the Minnesota Vikings in London

From RotoBaller

Jalen Hurts Sep 29 8:30pm CT
Jalen Hurts

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts completed 18 of 30 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown, adding eight carries for 20 yards, an additional score, and lost one of his two fumbles during the team's 33-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The loss of A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith was felt early and often in this game. Eagles wide receivers combined for just 34 yards, catching seven of their 20 targets. For context, tight end Dallas Goedert nearly doubled that receiving yard total on his own in this game. The lack of pass-catching talent was not the only issue. This was another game where Hurts has started slow and had to play catch up. The bye week could not have come at a better time for the Eagles. It should give them the chance to regroup and regain their top two pass catchers before a showdown with the Cleveland Browns in Week 6.

From RotoBaller

Jerome Ford Sep 29 8:30pm CT
Jerome Ford

Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford carried the ball 10 times for 58 yards and added seven catches for 27 yards in a 20-16 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. Ford appeared to be on his way to another mediocre rushing day before ripping off a 35-yard run late in the fourth quarter to boost his overall numbers. Despite his struggles on the ground, Ford supplemented his fantasy output with another strong day in the receiving department, catching all seven of his targets in the loss. Ford has now hauled in 17 of 20 targets through four games this season. With Nick Chubb (knee) still at least a few weeks away from being activated from the PUP list, Ford will be a solid RB2 heading into Week 5 against the Washington Commanders.

From RotoBaller

Amari Cooper Sep 29 8:30pm CT
Amari Cooper

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper caught four of his eight targets for 35 yards in a 20-16 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. Cooper could have had a much bigger afternoon but he had an 82-yard touchdown catch wiped away thanks to a holding penalty on center Nick Harris. As has been the case multiple times this season, Cooper also committed another tough drop, this time allowing an on-target pass to slip through his hands into a defender's for an interception. Cooper now has 16 catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns through four games. Despite struggling in three of his four games in 2024, Cooper will be a strong fantasy play against a weak Washington Commanders secondary in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Cameron Dicker Sep 29 8:20pm CT
Cameron Dicker

Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker attempted three kicks in a Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, making two of them. He made his only extra point try and one of his two field goal attempts. The field goal he made was a first quarter kick from 50 yards out. He missed a later 55 yard try in the third quarter. Dicker has been extremely accurate to start his career since last season, but his only weak spot might be kicks from outside of 50 yards. He and the Bolts head into their bye week and will return for a Week 6 game against the Broncos in Denver.

From RotoBaller