Draft Day Winners and Losers
Mon Apr 29 11:53am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
White should be lead back
The draft is always so exciting, seeing where all the players get picked. But after the draft, the big issue is figuring out what it all means for their fantasy value. We thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers from draft day. These are some of the players that were picked but also some of the guys that were already on rosters, seeing their fantasy value get impacted from the draft. Adjust your rankings accordingly!
WINNERS
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. The Panthers did a great job of getting Young some much needed offensive help. The team took a receiver, running back and tight end in three of the first four rounds of the draft. Carolina already added Diontae Johnson this offseason, so the receiver corps should be much better after getting Xavier Legette in the first round. The receivers got very little separation last year, so it was hard to gauge Young. He needed help and got some this offseason. Carolina also took a possible franchise running back in Jonathon Brooks and hopefully a solid starting tight end in Ja’Tavion Sanders. Things are looking up for Young and this offense.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. Worthy could not have landed in a much better spot. He heads to one of the best offenses in football that has some openings at receiver, especially with the status of Rashee Rice a bit up in the air. Worthy has electric speed and the Chiefs should find plenty of ways to utilize that. He could be the new Tyreek Hill for this offense. Look for Worthy to make an impact right away.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Maybe one of the biggest surprises of the draft was the Cowboys not addressing their running back spot. Instead, the team signed Elliott after the draft. He is likely to be the starter in this top offense. He might not rack up the yards of past seasons, but has big touchdown potential in this offense. Elliott seems a pretty sure bet to get double-digit touchdowns. He could be a solid No. 2 for fantasy teams.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers. Brooks is returning from a major knee injury and could be slowed a little early in the season, but once he is back healthy look for him to the three-down back for the Panthers. He lands in a great spot for playing time, having little top talent to compete with for playing time. Brooks could really get the volume in this offense. He is our top rookie fantasy back.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders. Many thought the Raiders were another team that could address their running back spot during the draft, but that didn’t happen. They used a sixth-round pick on Dylan Laube, but he is not expected to challenge White for that starter’s job. It sure seems the Raiders are comfortable with White as their lead back. He has a chance to get a lot of touches in year two. His stock is going up.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The Chargers need help at receiver and McConkey helps fill that need. It would not surprise if he quickly became Justin Herbert’s favorite target in the passing game. We really like his chances to rack up the weekly looks in this offense. Someone has to fill the Keenan Allen void and McConkey seems the best bet out of the options at receiver for the Chargers.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills. Coleman is another rookie receiver that lands in a great spot for playing time. The departure of Stefon Diggs leaves a big opening for the Bills. Coleman could help fill that void. He has great size for the position and could be a top red-zone threat from day one for Buffalo. Coleman should get his chances from the get go, giving him a high ceiling for the coming year.
LOSERS
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins. Mostert had a monster season last year and helped many fantasy teams to championships. He is going to have a very hard time repeating, especially after the Dolphins picked Jaylen Wright in the fourth round. Wright is a speed back similar to Mostert but a lot younger with less wear on his tires. Remember, Mostert is 32 years old. He might end up falling to third on the depth chart after the addition of Wright.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze is a super talented player that could be a star in the NFL. But for his year, you have to worry about him being up and down. He has two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. This is going to limit the ceiling of Odunze. He will be a much better fantasy player in a few more seasons. For now, expect erratic production from the talented rookie.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams remains the lead back for the Rams and is coming off a breakout season. But the Rams picked Blake Corum in the third round. He is going to be a factor in the offense. He might get put a huge dent in Williams’ workload but the big concern is the goal-line work. Corum is more of a between the tackles runner that does well on short-yardage work. He could end up stealing some touchdowns from Williams, hurting his fantasy value.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders. Mayer was a second-round pick for the Raiders last year and showed well at times his rookie season. The Raiders couldn’t pass on the talented Brock Browers in this year’s draft, though. This move absolutely kills the fantasy value of Mayer. He is going to play second fiddle to Browers, getting few weekly looks. Browers is the clear tight end to own in this offense.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers. Pearsall is a talented pass catcher that can get in and out of his breaks in a hurry. He is a really good fit for the slot and could fill that role for the 49ers his rookie season. The problem is he has some of the top talent in all of football to compete with for targets. He could really be up and down his rookie season. He will look better in a year or two when he has a more defined role and less to compete with at receiver. His rookie season could be a tough one to gauge for fantasy owners.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Many considered Nabers the top receiver in this year’s draft. He is super talented with a high fantasy ceiling. The problem for Nabers is he got drafted by the Giants, a team that really struggled offensively last year. Plus, he has Daniel Jones throwing him passes. This is not a great landing spot for the talented Nabers. Jones needs to make some big strides this season if Nabers hopes to reach his potential. We aren’t sure that happens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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- Week 5 Inactives
Arizona Cardinals kicker Matt Prater (left knee) returned to practice in a limited capacity on Friday. This was an improvement after he missed two consecutive practices, but it still leaves some uncertainty about his availability. The Cardinals are officially listing him as questionable for Week 5 versus the San Francisco 49ers. Prater has remained quite effective in his age-40 season, converting all 10 of his extra points attempts and all six of his field goal attempts. Fantasy managers can continue to start Prater in leagues with 12 teams or fewer.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans running back Cam Akers is trending toward drawing his third consecutive start in Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills. Akers has seized an increased role in the Houston backfield with both Joe Mixon (ankle) and Dameon Pierce (sidelined). Mixon has already been ruled out for this week's contest, and while the Texans are leaving the door open for Pierce, he missed two of three practices this week and faces an uphill battle to play. Therefore, it's looking like Akers will draw the start for the third week in a row. He has posted limited results on reduced opportunities during that span, registering just 74 rushing yards, eight receiving yards, and one touchdown. On a promising note, Akers could fare better this week against a porous Bills run defense. Buffalo has allowed the second-most fantasy points and the second-most receptions to opposing running backs this year, positioning Akers in the low-end RB2 tier for Sunday's clash.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints defense has held opposing offenses to 20 points or fewer through the first four weeks of the season. The team is averaging two takeaways and 2.5 sacks per game as well. In Week 5, the Saints hit the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. The Chiefs are usually a threat to put up points but injuries have ravaged Kansas City's offense, leaving them short of personnel. Additionally, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been shaky so far, tossing about five interceptions against his six touchdown passes. The Chief's o-line has done well at limiting pressure on Mahomes, at least, and will make it hard for Carl Granderson and the rest of the Saints' front line to add to their sack total. The Saints are viable in deeper leagues and not a bad bet based on their performance through the first four weeks of 2024.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr started the season by posting more than 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games. However, in Weeks 3 and 4 the signal-caller couldn't crack double digits. Carr went 28-for-36 last week, setting new highs in completions and pass attempts in the young season, but he failed to reach 250 passing yards for the fourth straight game. In Week 5, the Saints head to Kansas City to play the Chiefs on Monday night. The Chiefs permitted Justin Herbert to throw for just 179 yards in Week 4 and they have given up just 13.5 fantasy points per game over their last three. Carr faces the additional challenge of playing behind an offensive line missing three starters that is facing an aggressive defensive front led by lineman Chris Jones. Unless you are managing a two-QB league team dealing with bye week complications, then Carr should be left on the wire in Week 5.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints' tendency to run 12 personnel concentrates their passing attack on wide receivers Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. Shaheed owns a 25.5% target share as a result and, leaving out the egg he laid in Week 3, he is averaging 18.3 PPR points per game in 2024. In Week 5, the Saints head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Monday night. The Chiefs have done well to limit opposing wide receivers' production in 2024, holding them collectively to 113 yards per game. Still, Shaheed has shown several times over that his ability to break a big play and the Saints will likely need to look to him again to have a shot at getting past Kansas City. There may be additional work for him as the other main weapons in the Saints' offense, Olave (hamstring) and Alvin Kamara (hip/ribs) both popped up on the team's injury report this week. Shaheed's long touchdown potential keeps him in the WR3 range for Week 5 and he can have a slight boost in value in leagues that award points for return yards.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots' defense should garner significant fantasy appeal heading into Week 5 versus the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have limped to the finish line in each of their last three games, losing to the Bills, Seahawks, and Titans all by at least 19 points. The absence of Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has been a major factor as the Dolphins are averaging just 8.3 points over the last three weeks. While the Patriots might be a tier down from even the Titans, New England's defense has legitimate top-five upside as it prepares to face an offense led by Tyler Huntley. Miami quarterbacks have three fumbles over the last two weeks and have struggled to produce points and yardage, giving the Patriots a great opportunity to capitalize. Their defense is a top-12 unit in fantasy football for this week.
From RotoBaller
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense/special teams unit could be an interesting waiver wire add in Week 5 against the Indianapolis Colts. With Jonathan Taylor already ruled out and Anthony Richardson potentially also out, that leaves an offense led by Joe Flacco and Trey Sermon in the backfield. While Flacco played solid in relief last week, he could be prone to turnovers, especially with a lackluster run game behind him. If the Jaguars defense can make the Colts offense one-dimensional, they could be primed for a big day. The defense hasn't been great so far this season, but a banged-up division rival seems like a prime matchup for an improved performance. Even if Richardson does suit up, the Jaguars are a decent play, as the young QB has been turnover prone during his short career. Fantasy managers can do better, but the Jaguars D/ST is a solid option in Week 5 that is very likely available on the waiver wire.
From RotoBaller
The Chicago Bears' defense and special teams aim to maintain their strong performance against the Carolina Panthers this week. While some may be hesitant to back the Bears due to the Panthers averaging 30 points per game with former Bear Andy Dalton at quarterback, the Bears represent the most formidable challenge Dalton has faced. Dalton boasts a 66.2% completion rate in his two starts and averages 269.5 passing yards per game. This improved play has contributed to wide receiver Diontae Johnson achieving back-to-back games with over seven catches, 80 receiving yards, and a touchdown for the first time in his career. The Bears have yet to allow more than 21 points in a game and are tied for third in the NFL with eight takeaways. Expect the Bears to slightly disrupt Dalton's resurgence and force him into a turnover or two.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings will try to continue his unlikely run as a fantasy difference-maker when the team squares off against the Arizona Cardinals at home on Sunday. Against New England last week, Jennings paced all 49ers receivers with three receptions on six targets for 88 yards. It was one thing for Jennings to have a career day in Week 3 with Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle absent, but it was quite the surprise to follow it up with a fantasy-useful performance with everyone healthy. Arizona's pass defense is tied for 14th in half-PPR points allowed to opposing wide receivers, which makes for a decent opportunity for San Francisco's receivers. However, Jennings is still a dubious bet to continue producing like he has, given the talent of Samuel Sr., Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk demanding targets. Jennings is a consensus WR4 and a risky FLEX play in Week 5.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. will line up against the Arizona Cardinals at home on Sunday. Last week versus New England, Samuel Sr. caught three of five targets for 58 yards plus two carries for 14 yards rushing after spending some time on the injury report. His day, disappointing as it was, was somewhat saved by a single 53-yard reception. Arizona, coming into the game tied for 14th in half-PPR fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, represents a decent opportunity for Samuel Sr. Also worth noting is that the Cardinals' defense has been sixth-worst against the run and Samuel Sr. usually gets at least a couple of carries. He's averaging 13 half-PPR points in fantasy so far. Start a healthy Samuel Sr. as a back-end WR1 in Week 5.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze is set for a bounce back this Sunday against a vulnerable Carolina Panthers secondary. In Week 5, Odunze will go up against the 19th-ranked pass defense in the league, allowing an average of 209.3 yards per gamean encouraging matchup for him. He has a chance to score this week, as the Panthers have surrendered multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. Last week, Caleb Williams missed Odunze on a potential deep touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams, but both players are improving with each game. While Odunze's long-term potential is clear, his current 14.9% target rateranking 78th among wide receiversmakes him less appealing as a fantasy starter. He won't be a reliable option until the Bears' offense finds its rhythm or Odunze surpasses Allen in targets. However, with a favorable matchup against the Panthers, he could see the end zone, positioning him as a WR4 with significant risks and potential rewards.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is a borderline starter this week, thanks to a favorable matchup against the struggling Carolina Panthers secondary. In Week 5, Kmet will face the 19th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, which allows an average of 209.3 yards per game, presenting a solid opportunity for him. However, with all three starting wide receivers now healthy, Kmet's usage has reverted to more typical levels following his breakout in Week 3. He has been held to under 35 receiving yards in three of his four games this season. Kmet appeared on the Bears' first practice report for Week 5 as limited due to a knee injury. Still, he participated fully in practice the following day, likely clearing him for Sunday's matchup against the Panthers. He has a chance to score this week, as the Panthers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game this season.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos is a solid fantasy option for Week 5 against the Carolina Panthers. Although he has struggled in the past two weeks, managing only one field goal in each game, he did convert all three of his extra point attempts and his lone field goal in the Bears' 24-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4, totaling six points. As one of the top streaming kickers and a viable bye-week replacement, Santos has a favorable matchup this week. The Panthers allow a league-high 32.3 points per game and an average of 2.3 field goals per contest. With this in mind, the veteran kicker presents an appealing lineup option for fantasy managers in Week 5.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift is a solid RB3 for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers, presenting a promising opportunity. Last week, he had his best performance of the season against the Rams, totaling 16 carries for 93 yards, one touchdown, and seven receptions for 72 yards. Before Week 4, Swift had struggled, not exceeding 30 rushing yards or 24 receiving yards in any game. He led all Bears players in carries, rushing yards, targets, receptions, and receiving yards while scoring a touchdown. Although it's concerning that Roschon Johnson handled the goal-line work, Swift's overall snap distribution keeps him relevant. He demonstrated his potential in a favorable matchup, and the Panthers have allowed the second-most rushing yards and touchdowns to running backs. In Week 5, Swift will look to capitalize on this advantageous matchup against Carolina's 29th-ranked run defense, which concedes an average of 148.8 yards per game.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson is set to build on his increased usage in Week 5 against the Carolina Panthers. He aims to capitalize on a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense ranked 29th in the league, allowing an average of 148.8 rushing yards per game. While Johnson maintained a consistent snap rate of 37% in Week 4 and he only had seven touches for 26 rushing yards, he didn't see a significant uptick in his offensive role. Meanwhile, D'Andre Swift regained the lead in red zone snaps, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects. However, Johnson has shown himself to be an effective runner between the tackles, particularly in short-yardage situations. Given the Panthers' struggles against the run, Johnson could be a worthwhile option as a high-end RB4 for those hoping for a touchdown opportunity.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a strong WR2 option this week against the struggling Carolina Panthers secondary. Moore is tied for seventh in the NFL for red zone targets, helping to maintain his fantasy value. Although he had a modest performance last week, he salvaged it with a touchdown. In last year's matchup against the Panthers, Moore led the Bears with five receptions for 58 yards, playing alongside Tyson Bagent in place of the injured Justin Fields. With Moore and Caleb Williams developing chemistry, the veteran wideout could have a standout game against Carolina on Sunday. He aims to exploit a shaky Panthers defense in Week 5 and would love to prove them wrong for trading him, especially in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (heel) aims to bounce back this Sunday in Chicago against a notably weak Carolina Panthers secondary. After missing some time due to a heel injury, Allen returned last week but saw limited action, with just three targets and seven air yards. The Bears' offense has struggled to succeed in the passing game, making target competition a mess. In Week 5, however, Allen will go up against the 19th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 209.3 yards per gamean advantageous matchup. He has a solid opportunity to find the end zone, as the Panthers have given up multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. Although the Bears' overall lack of passing volume has hindered Allen's production, a healthier status combined with a favorable matchup could lead to a more productive fantasy outing. He's currently a WR3, but if the Bears are forced to throw, he can exceed that expectation.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk gets another opportunity to break out of his early-season funk when the 49ers face the Arizona Cardinals at home in Week 5. Last week, Aiyuk disappointed fantasy managers with two receptions of five targets for 48 yards. Even more disheartening was perennial fantasy non-factor Jauan Jennings continuing his hot streak to lead the 49ers in receiving on the day against New England. It isn't panic time quite yet though. Aiyuk is averaging 6.25 targets per game, compared with last year's 6.56 per-game pace and he's tied for 10th in the NFL in red zone targets to wide receivers. Arizona has been mediocre at stopping wide receivers in fantasy, allowing 27.5 half-PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers. A good matchup at home plus suitable usage so far makes Aiyuk a worthy WR2 in Week 5.
From RotoBaller
This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams offers a high-risk, high-reward choice as he faces the struggling Carolina Panthers. In Week 5, Williams will encounter the NFL's 19th-ranked pass defense, which allows an average of 209.3 yards per gamean advantageous matchup for him. He's poised to find the end zone against the Panthers, who have given up multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. After throwing for 363 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3, Williams had a quieter performance with just 157 yards in Week 4. It's reasonable to anticipate his production will land between those outings, aiming for at least 225 passing yards and a couple of scores this Sunday in Chicago. Williams emerges as a solid QB2 with significant upside in this favorable matchup as he seeks to impress fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye looks to build off last week's productive outing with a big game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 5. The veteran was the 11th-ranked kicker in terms of fantasy points last week, and this week, he benefits from an even more favorable matchup. The Dolphins have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing kickers so far, which gives Slye a great opportunity to be added as a solid streamer off waivers. He's not a top-12 kicker every week, but he's certainly making the case for specifically Week 5.
From RotoBaller
