Draft Day Winners and Losers
Mon Apr 29 11:53am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
White should be lead back
The draft is always so exciting, seeing where all the players get picked. But after the draft, the big issue is figuring out what it all means for their fantasy value. We thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers from draft day. These are some of the players that were picked but also some of the guys that were already on rosters, seeing their fantasy value get impacted from the draft. Adjust your rankings accordingly!
WINNERS
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. The Panthers did a great job of getting Young some much needed offensive help. The team took a receiver, running back and tight end in three of the first four rounds of the draft. Carolina already added Diontae Johnson this offseason, so the receiver corps should be much better after getting Xavier Legette in the first round. The receivers got very little separation last year, so it was hard to gauge Young. He needed help and got some this offseason. Carolina also took a possible franchise running back in Jonathon Brooks and hopefully a solid starting tight end in Ja’Tavion Sanders. Things are looking up for Young and this offense.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. Worthy could not have landed in a much better spot. He heads to one of the best offenses in football that has some openings at receiver, especially with the status of Rashee Rice a bit up in the air. Worthy has electric speed and the Chiefs should find plenty of ways to utilize that. He could be the new Tyreek Hill for this offense. Look for Worthy to make an impact right away.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Maybe one of the biggest surprises of the draft was the Cowboys not addressing their running back spot. Instead, the team signed Elliott after the draft. He is likely to be the starter in this top offense. He might not rack up the yards of past seasons, but has big touchdown potential in this offense. Elliott seems a pretty sure bet to get double-digit touchdowns. He could be a solid No. 2 for fantasy teams.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers. Brooks is returning from a major knee injury and could be slowed a little early in the season, but once he is back healthy look for him to the three-down back for the Panthers. He lands in a great spot for playing time, having little top talent to compete with for playing time. Brooks could really get the volume in this offense. He is our top rookie fantasy back.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders. Many thought the Raiders were another team that could address their running back spot during the draft, but that didn’t happen. They used a sixth-round pick on Dylan Laube, but he is not expected to challenge White for that starter’s job. It sure seems the Raiders are comfortable with White as their lead back. He has a chance to get a lot of touches in year two. His stock is going up.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The Chargers need help at receiver and McConkey helps fill that need. It would not surprise if he quickly became Justin Herbert’s favorite target in the passing game. We really like his chances to rack up the weekly looks in this offense. Someone has to fill the Keenan Allen void and McConkey seems the best bet out of the options at receiver for the Chargers.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills. Coleman is another rookie receiver that lands in a great spot for playing time. The departure of Stefon Diggs leaves a big opening for the Bills. Coleman could help fill that void. He has great size for the position and could be a top red-zone threat from day one for Buffalo. Coleman should get his chances from the get go, giving him a high ceiling for the coming year.
LOSERS
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins. Mostert had a monster season last year and helped many fantasy teams to championships. He is going to have a very hard time repeating, especially after the Dolphins picked Jaylen Wright in the fourth round. Wright is a speed back similar to Mostert but a lot younger with less wear on his tires. Remember, Mostert is 32 years old. He might end up falling to third on the depth chart after the addition of Wright.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze is a super talented player that could be a star in the NFL. But for his year, you have to worry about him being up and down. He has two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. This is going to limit the ceiling of Odunze. He will be a much better fantasy player in a few more seasons. For now, expect erratic production from the talented rookie.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams remains the lead back for the Rams and is coming off a breakout season. But the Rams picked Blake Corum in the third round. He is going to be a factor in the offense. He might get put a huge dent in Williams’ workload but the big concern is the goal-line work. Corum is more of a between the tackles runner that does well on short-yardage work. He could end up stealing some touchdowns from Williams, hurting his fantasy value.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders. Mayer was a second-round pick for the Raiders last year and showed well at times his rookie season. The Raiders couldn’t pass on the talented Brock Browers in this year’s draft, though. This move absolutely kills the fantasy value of Mayer. He is going to play second fiddle to Browers, getting few weekly looks. Browers is the clear tight end to own in this offense.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers. Pearsall is a talented pass catcher that can get in and out of his breaks in a hurry. He is a really good fit for the slot and could fill that role for the 49ers his rookie season. The problem is he has some of the top talent in all of football to compete with for targets. He could really be up and down his rookie season. He will look better in a year or two when he has a more defined role and less to compete with at receiver. His rookie season could be a tough one to gauge for fantasy owners.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Many considered Nabers the top receiver in this year’s draft. He is super talented with a high fantasy ceiling. The problem for Nabers is he got drafted by the Giants, a team that really struggled offensively last year. Plus, he has Daniel Jones throwing him passes. This is not a great landing spot for the talented Nabers. Jones needs to make some big strides this season if Nabers hopes to reach his potential. We aren’t sure that happens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
The San Francisco 49ers were remarkably balanced and efficient with their passing offense last year, but they attempted fewer passes (491) than any team in the league during the regular season. Despite that, the 49ers finished fourth in passing yards (4,384), and both Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle hit the 1,000-yard receiving mark. Last year was the beginning of the team's evolution into a more aggressive pass offense, one that put more of an emphasis on big shots downfield to its receivers and Kittle. After taking wideouts Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing in this year's draft, the offense is more capable against man coverage through the air. And given head coach Kyle Shanahan's trust in quarterback Brock Purdy, the investment in young receivers makes sense. The Niners called more pass plays than run plays in the playoffs, which could be a sign that Purdy will get more opportunities to make things happen with his arm in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is apparently not going to attend training camp without a new contract. Dynasty Analysis: Lamb has spent the Spring watching receivers get paid and now he wants his piece of the pie. That piece is going to be a two-plater as Lamb comes off a career-best 135/1,749/12 monster season. Dallas has little choice but to pay him and any trade rumors have been quickly shot down. Look for Lamb to eventually get his new deal. At this point, there's little to worry about a player many believe could be dynasty's greatest asset.
Dynasty | Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill is already talking about his contract status and reportedly would like a new deal. Dynasty Analysis: It was only a matter of time before Hill starting kicking the tires on a new deal. After all, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jaylen Waddle have all been paid already and CeeDee Lamb isn't far behind. Hill has hinted about retirement but this certainly makes it sound like he wants to maximize his earning power more than hang up the cleats any time soon. Chances are the Dolphins add some incentives and make him happy before re-upping him to fit back into the group of highest paid receivers. Hill is aging but few players are bigger weapons in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Jets running back Breece Hall is declaring himself fully healthy as the season approaches. Dynasty Analysis: We've seen some true glimpses of stardom with Hall, who famously tore his ACL late in his rookie season. As with most players, that injury takes a full year to recover from and another year to truly feel like it never happened. Hall still ran for nearly 1,000 yards last season and caught 76 passes on a team that was dreadful on offense. With Aaron Rodgers also back, Hall could be the RB1 this season and the chance to buy low on him is ending.
Dynasty | 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has expressed an interest in staying with San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: The fact Aiyuk wants a new contract is the worst kept secret in the league. The 49ers were unable to trade Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel during the draft and are caught in a salary cap nightmare as they simply can't pay everyone on their offense, especially with Brock Purdy eventually needing a new (and hefty) contract in the near future. Aiyuk wants to stay but also wants his money. There really isn't a clear indication of what's going to happen, so dynasty managers need to treat him as a "hold" right now. His value could easily go up or down based on a resolution this Summer.
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) missed the team's mandatory minicamp last month because he had a pre-planned trip to Egypt, according to sources. Rodgers attended every day of the team's Phase 1 voluntary workouts and missed one week of Phase 2 but attended every organized team activity workout, which were also voluntary. The future Hall of Famer originally planned his trip to Egypt during his recovery from the season-ending Achilles injury he suffered in Week 1 of 2023. While it was an unexcused absence, the Jets aren't concerned that it will impact Rodgers' season this fall as he recovers from his Achilles injury. Rodgers should be able to bounce back from a career-worst season in his final year in Green Bay in 2022, but fantasy managers also shouldn't be lumping him into the QB1 discussion at his age while coming off a serious injury.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs edge rusher Charles Omenihu (knee) suffered a torn ACL in the AFC Championship victory over the Baltimore Ravens last season. The 26-year-old recorded a pivotal sack-fumble of Lamar Jackson but suffered the major injury soon after. The timeline of his injury almost guarantees he won't be ready for the regular season, Omenihu said "it's going good," when asked about his recovery. "Slow process, everybody told me it was going to be like that, but it's been decent," Omenihu said. Kansas City has Chris Jones and George Karlaftis on the roster to provide pressure on quarterbacks, but Omenihu is an important depth piece for Steve Spagnuolo's defense. The 2019 fifth-round pick has posted 18.5 sacks through his first 72 games with the Texans, 49ers, and Chiefs.
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb (knee) has recovered from his knee surgery faster than trainer Brad Lester has ever seen before. 'I even had to ask him, 'Which knee was it again?'' Lester said. 'He said 'the left one.' I said, 'That's good that I can't even tell.' He's way ahead of schedule in my opinion. I will honestly say I have never seen anyone recover as fast as he has so far. After certain movements, I was kind of like, 'How do you feel?' And he'd say 'I was fine.' I was like, 'Man, this is pretty impressive.' To be seven months out and he didn't have any pains in the workout.'
Fantasy Spin: That's about all you could hope to hear after his catastrophic knee injury last year that tore his ACL, MCL and medial capsule. They may still slow-play him back as they have depth with Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman. The latter two will be matchup plays or flex options while Chubb is out. But Chubb could be a mid-to-low RB2.
From TheHuddle
Cleveland Browns TE Jordan Akins will be the team's TE2 on the roster, but the Browns are expected to monitor preseason cuts for young or veteran tight ends to add to their depth.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent S Duron Harmon (Browns) said he is interested in signing with the New England Patriots because he would like to finish his career with the team.
From TheHuddle
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce hopes to prove he's more than just a "deep threat." "I think there's a lot more to my game," Pierce said recently. "I just want to have the chance to be able to showcase that." The 24-year-old has displayed brief glimpses of promise in his first two seasons in the league, amassing 73 catches for 1,107 yards and four touchdowns in 33 games. Michael Pittman Jr. is the No. 1 wideout on the depth chart. However, Pierce seems eager to show everyone that he's more than a one-dimensional player, so he could be in line for his most productive season to date, especially if quarterback Anthony Richardson can play at a high level. He'll be competing for the No. 2 spot primarily with Adonai Mitchell, who the Colts selected in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets edge rusher Haason Reddick sat out the entire offseason program after being traded from the Philadelphia Eagles as he seeks a new contract. However, Jets reporter Zack Rosenblatt believes the team is unlikely to offer him a new deal before the start of training camp that begins on July 23. Reddick was unhappy with his deal in Philadelphia, which makes sense considering he has the sixth-most sacks since 2021 (38) but has the 19th-highest average salary ($15 million) among edge defenders. Rosenblatt said the organization could opt to guarantee his salary or add incentives to his deal to alleviate any issues, but this is a situation worth monitoring as the 2024 campaign approaches.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara may not report for the start of training camp if the Saints do not improve his contract situation, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.
Fantasy Spin: Kamara skipped some of the mandatory minicamp because of his contract situation, so fantasy players can keep an eye on the situation. He will be a weekly starting option in fantasy leagues during the regular season.
From TheHuddle
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey was selected at the beginning of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft, and he has a chance to make a significant impact right away after the organization moved on from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler this offseason. The veteran trio was responsible for most of L.A.'s receiving production over the last few seasons, so there are big holes to fill in Justin Herbert's offense. According to Herbert, McConkey has excelled right away. "He's just picked up the offense so easily. It's like he's been a four- or five-year vet," Herbert said. "He understands the game." The Georgia product didn't have impressive numbers in college, but he was sharing the field with standout tight end Brock Bowers in a run-heavy offense and dealt with several injuries. If he becomes Herbert's go-to target right away, he has at least weekly flex appeal and WR2 upside in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill signed a four-year, $120 million contract with the organization after he was traded from the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2022 offseason. However, he is seeking a new deal after Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown each signed new contracts this offseason that each exceed Hill's $30 million average salary. "I'm very proud of those guys, for guys like me, that's great," Hill said. "I'm 30 years old.. also looking for a new deal. I'm excited to see where I fit in." Hill's 3,509 receiving yards since 2022 are the most among all wideouts by 401 yards, so while he has the right to ask for more money, it could make the contract situation with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa more tricky to navigate.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills edge rusher Von Miller turned in the worst season of his career last year. The 35-year-old posted just three tackles and zero sacks in 12 games upon his return from a torn ACL that he suffered in 2022. The MVP of Super Bowl 50 said is aiming to get back on the right track in 2024. "My biggest individual goal is just getting back to playing my style of football," he said. "It's crazy how you get injured, and you come back, and you really shouldn't have even been playing," Miller said. "And people judge you by a product on the field. I could have easily sat out all of last season, but I couldn't do my teammates like that. I felt like being later in my career, I didn't want to sacrifice any of my years. But at the same time, I shouldn't have been out there." It sounds like Miller never felt like himself and he is "angry" heading into his 13th NFL campaign. Miller is the active leader in career sacks (123.5) and could move into 16th place all-time with just five sacks this season.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell is scheduled to play on his fifth-year option at $12.3 million this year, but the Falcons are expected to sign him to a second deal before negotiations get tense. While Terrell, the 16th overall pick in 2020, has been good for the Falcons, he's gone two seasons without an interception and has had some rough moments as well. The top of the cornerback market is at $21 million per year, and Terrell's camp is sure to ask for close to that, but the Falcons should push back and hope to come in around the $17 million range, according to The Athletic's Josh Kendall. The 25-year-old finished last year with 45 tackles (34 solo) and 11 pass breakups in 17 games. He's considered one of the better cover corners in the league, but the Falcons probably want to see him force more turnovers if they are going to pay him.
From RotoBaller
Former Minnesota Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn, who is heading into his fifth NFL season in 2024, has positioned himself as an early leader among New England Patriots receivers this offseason. Osborn will need to build on his offseason progress in training camp this summer, but he was usually first through drills during organized team activities and mandatory minicamp. ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss believes that Osborn, slot receiver Demario Douglas and rookie second-rounder Ja'Lynn Polk could easily be the team's top three targets to open the year if everyone is healthy. And Kendrick Bourne (knee) is expected to be healthy as he returns from a torn ACL and should be part of the mix as well. The 27-year-old Osborn should be used as more of a traditional receiver in New England, but he still has a ways to go to become fantasy relevant in standard 12-team redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots tried to trade into the end of the first round of April's NFL draft for a wide receiver, according to multiple NFL sources, but they eventually settled on Washington's Ja'Lynn Polk at No. 37 early in the second round. Polk's toughness and relentless mentality reflected well on the culture that executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf and first-year head coach Jerod Mayo hope to create. The 22-year-old's toughness and physicality have stood out since his days in high school. He caught 69 passes for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns with the Huskies in 2023 and has a chance to carve out an immediate niche role in New England's receiving corps in his rookie season. Mayo referred to Polk as a "self-starter." Polk will probably go undrafted in most single-year fantasy leagues, but he's a name to watch in training camp this summer.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets running back Breece Hall (lower half) missed some organized team activities and mandatory minicamp this offseason with an undisclosed "lower-half" injury, but Hall said it was out of precaution and he now feels "back to my old self." Hall was mostly rehabbing his torn left ACL last offseason and he admitted he returned a little tentative in 2023, but he still managed nearly 1,000 yards rushing and caught 76 passes for a league high 591 receiving yards in 17 games after quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury early in Week 1. The 23-year-old finished with 507 scrimmage yards in the final three games and is on the rise heading into 2024, especially with Rodgers now back healthy. In most fantasy formats, Hall is going to be the second RB off the board in drafts this fall after Christian McCaffrey.
From RotoBaller
