Arrested Development | RealTime Fantasy Sports

QB Strength of Schedule

Thu May 23 11:12am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Prescott setup for big success

Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the quarterback position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the quarterbacks with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the quarterbacks that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

	QB SOS
1.	Miami Dolphins	313.6
2.	Cincinnati Bengals	314.77
3.	Los Angeles Chargers	317.32
4.	Denver Broncos	317.38
5.	Pittsburgh Steelers	320.33
6.	Houston Texans	320.74
7.	Buffalo Bills	321.01
8.	Philadelphia Eagles	323.71
9.	Kansas City Chiefs	325.08
10.	Washington Commanders	325.12
11.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	326.4
12.	Jacksonville Jaguars	328.45
13.	New York Jets	329.06
14.	New England Patriots	329.64
15.	Cleveland Browns	330.31
16.	Los Angeles Rams	330.72
17.	Arizona Cardinals	331.54
18.	Indianapolis Colts	331.69
19.	Seattle Seahawks	332
20.	Atlanta Falcons	332.73
21.	Baltimore Ravens	333.05
22.	San Francisco 49ers	333.05
23.	Detroit Lions	334.13
24.	Las Vegas Raiders	334.38
25.	New York Giants	334.72
26.	New Orleans Saints	336.27
27.	Minnesota Vikings	337.2
28.	Dallas Cowboys	339.64
29.	Chicago Bears	340.70
30.	Tennessee Titans	343.69
31.	Carolina Panthers	345.54
32.	Green Bay Packers	349.53

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks. Jordan Love already had a breakout season last year and could take his game to an even higher level this season. Love is shaping up to be a really intriguing QB1 this season. He is a player on the rise and seems setup for even more success this year.

A couple second-year quarterbacks have really favorable schedules, Will Levis and Bryce Young. Both seem like good No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks to take a chance. Their teams did well in upgrading the talent around them this offseason and a favorable schedule bodes well for them to take some steps forward this year.

Caleb Williams was the No.1 overall pick and the Bears gave him plenty of firepower to work with in year one. Williams has a lot of good going for him this year and could be the C.J. Stroud of this year’s rookie class. And having a favorable fantasy schedule helps Williams even more.

A couple veterans with favorable schedules are Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. Prescott is the one that stands out the most. The Cowboys are lacking top options at the running back spot, so it would not surprise if the Cowboys are really pass-heavy offensively. Prescott could really rack up the numbers this year.

There are some big-name quarterbacks on the opposite side of things, having very tough fantasy schedules. Tua Tagovalioa has the toughest schedule of all. He struggled a little down the stretch last year and now has the most unfavorable schedule for any fantasy quarterback. This is a little concerning.

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and whoever is starting in Pittsburgh, likely Russell Wilson, are other veteran quarterbacks that have a top-five unfavorable schedule for fantasy quarterbacks. Burrow is not a huge concern for us because we think they will still have success throwing the ball and he has a ton of talent around him at receiver. Herbert is a concern. The Chargers lost their top two receivers and could be a lot more run-heavy with a new coach in place. Herbert has some red flags for him this coming year, making him a bit of a risky pick for fantasy teams. Wilson is another veteran with a tough schedule. He also has Justin Fields pushing him to play, so Wilson is going to be a boom or bust fantasy pick.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy quarterbacks. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the quarterbacks with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

	QB PLAYOFF SOS
1.	Jacksonville Jaguars	292.02
2.	Houston Texans	299.33
3.	New York Giants	301.93
4.	Miami Dolphins	307.48
5.	Los Angeles Rams	308.45
6.	Detroit Lions	312.4
7.	Arizona Cardinals	313.15
8.	Kansas City Chiefs	313.45
9.	Buffalo Bills	313.6
10.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	317.53
11.	Cincinnati Bengals	318.03
12.	Baltimore Ravens	318.25
13.	Green Bay Packers	322.48
14.	Indianapolis Colts	322.83
15.	Pittsburgh Steelers	328.78
16.	Philadelphia Eagles	331.23
17.	Cleveland Browns	331.95
18.	Minnesota Vikings	334.68
19.	Atlanta Falcons	336.18
20.	Carolina Panthers	338.62
21.	Seattle Seahawks	338.65
22.	Las Vegas Raiders	341.18
23.	Los Angeles Chargers	341.22
24.	New York Jets	344.3
25.	New Orleans Saints	346.68
26.	Chicago Bears	347.07
27.	Tennessee Titans	348.42
28.	New England Patriots	355.23
29.	Denver Broncos	355.35
30.	Dallas Cowboys	359.62
31.	Washington Commanders	359.92
32.	San Francisco 49ers	363.47

There is just a team that makes both the top-five favorable quarterback schedule for the regular season and playoffs. That team is the Cowboys. So Dak Prescott has the third easiest playoff schedule in addition to having the fifth easiest regular season schedule. Prescott was a player looking pretty good even before seeing these schedules, so you might want to bump him up a few spots in your rankings after seeing this. Prescott could be a league winner in 2024.

The 49ers actually have the easiest fantasy quarterback schedule for the playoffs. So Brock Purdy could have a great run during the fantasy playoffs. He always has a high weekly ceiling, so things are looking great for him this postseason.

Now some rookie quarterbacks round out the team of having top-five fantasy quarterback playoff schedules. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Drake Maye are all likely starting for their teams later in the season, so they should help fantasy teams during the playoffs. They all have some question marks surrounding them but could be worth the gamble, especially if you have a dependable starter already on your roster. These rookies could make some noise late in the season.

On the opposite side of things, the Dolphins are the only team to have both a top-five unfavorable fantasy quarterback schedule for the regular season and playoffs. We already had a few concerns for Tagovalioa even before these schedules were released. And now seeing he has very challenging schedules for both the regular season and playoffs make him a player you might want to avoid come draft day.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have the toughest schedule for the playoffs. Lawrence has not lived up to expectations to date. He could have his best season to date this year, but his schedule during the playoffs is concerning. Lawrence could struggle when it matters most.

C.J. Stroud is the biggest name of any quarterback with a top-five unfavorable playoff schedule. We aren’t too concerned about this because some players can rise above the challenge. Stroud is one of those players. Things will be tougher for him in year two, but he will also progress and get better. Plus, he has Stefon Diggs added to the mix, which should improve that passing game even more.

Daniel Jones is another quarterback with a challenging playoff schedule. He is another fringe draft pick to begin with, so seeing him possibly have struggles down the stretch causes more trepidation when it comes to possibly drafting him. He might be another player to just steer clear of come draft day.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

QB Strength of Schedule

The Paur Report