Guest of the League
2023/2024 Dashs ONE and DONE Est. 2011
One and Done - FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

This Week in the TFC (7-2)

Player Notes
KJ Hamler Jul 15 1:20pm CT
KJ Hamler

Wide receiver KJ Hamler (heart), the former second-round pick of the Denver Broncos in 2020, signed a Reserve/Futures deal with the Buffalo Bills earlier this year and is looking to make a comeback in 2024 after already facing plenty of adversity in the NFL. Hamler struggled with a hamstring injury in his rookie year and tore his ACL in 2021 before dealing with another hamstring issue in 2022 and a partially torn pectoral muscle last year. In addition to all those injuries, he felt severe heart pain last summer and was diagnosed with pericarditis, an inflammation of the tissue that surrounds the heart. The 25-year-old signed with the Colts' practice squad in late September but was never elevated to the active roster. The speedy downfield threat is facing an uphill battle to make Buffalo's roster out of training camp this summer, even with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer around.

From RotoBaller

Nick Chubb Jul 15 1:10pm CT
Nick Chubb

An Instagram post on Monday morning showed Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (knee) doing two squat reps with what appears to be a total of 12 45-pound plates on a Tsunami Max bar. It's especially impressive, considering Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Week 2 game against the Steelers on Sept. 18 of last year that required two surgeries -- one to fix damage to his MCL, the medial capsule and meniscus, and the second to fix his ACL. The four-time pro Bowler suffered a similar injury, except for the torn ACL, in the same knee at Georgia in 205. Chubb isn't putting a timetable on his return but also didn't dismiss the possibility of being ready for Week 1 against Dallas this fall. He started running in April but didn't do any on-field work during OTAs or minicamp. The 28-year-old is likely to be eased in this year, which makes him more of a risky RB3 in fantasy than a surefire RB1.

From RotoBaller

Tyreek Hill Jul 15 9:43am CT
Tyreek Hill

Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill said he's content with his contract situation, and he's focused on winning a championship.

Fantasy Spin: Cheetah was the WR1 for much of the season before he was hampered with a leg injury. Now 30, that is something to keep an eye on. He's still worthy of a top-three selection at the position, but he could slide with the younger options at the position.

From TheHuddle

Jordan Addison Jul 14 7:30pm CT
Jordan Addison

According to a report from the Los Angeles Daily News, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison was arrested on Friday night for suspicion of DUI. Police were notified and responded to an area near LAX, where Addison was reportedly found asleep at the wheel and blocking several lanes. He was taken into custody and released a few hours later. The 2023 No. 23 overall pick finished his first year in the NFL by amassing 70 catches for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns. While it's unknown if Addison will face any discipline from the NFL or team, his fantasy stock could take a hit from managers unwilling to draft him in fear of a possible suspension.

From RotoBaller

Caleb Williams Jul 14 7:20pm CT
Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams remains without a contract. Yet, the rookie is apparently not concerned about it, considering he reported he hasn't been involved in negotiations. "I'm not handling that," said Williams when asked about a potential deal. "My lawyers and attorney and everybody, the head of the Bears, everybody up there up top is handling that. That's not my position that I'm handling." There are several issues holding things up. However, Williams doesn't have an NFLPA-certified agent, so it's unknown who is orchestrating things behind the scenes on his behalf. The 2024 No. 1 overall pick has plenty of pressure on him heading into his inaugural year, especially since he is replacing Justin Fields, a move that didn't sit well with some. With that said, Williams is expected to have more than a few impressive rookie showings, although fantasy managers should expect growing pains.

From RotoBaller

Tyreek Hill Jul 14 7:00pm CT
Tyreek Hill

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill recently endorsed quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for a new contract. However, the wideout is adamant he's not concerned about his deal, believing the organization will do right by him. "I know when it's time for me to get a deal, the Miami Dolphins will do what's right," said Hill during an interview with Omar Kelly of The Miami Herald. "The contract, it'll come. Whenever it comes, I'll be happy." Several wideouts around the National Football League have already received market-altering deals. But it appears Hill isn't concerned, meaning it shouldn't be a distraction heading into the 2024-25 campaign. With that in mind, the multi-time Pro-Bowler should remain one of the first receivers taken in every fantasy draft ahead of Week 1.

From RotoBaller

Kyle Pitts Jul 14 6:50pm CT
Kyle Pitts

According to Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts is "learning basically two positions." "There's some tight end, and there's some wide receiver," said Robinson in an interview with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "So, he's got a lot on his plate. I'm just excited to see him continue to get more comfortable in the system...We'll move him around the formation. We'll use him as a blocker. We'll use him as a receiver. We'll use him all across the board." The 23-year-old has appeared in 44 games for the Falcons over the last three seasons, amassing 2,049 yards and six touchdowns off 149 catches. But with a new coaching staff in Atlanta, it's safe to say that Pitts could be in line for the best year of his career, assuming he remains involved in the offense as advertised during the offseason.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers Jul 14 4:53pm CT
Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers says his Achilles' tendon 'feels good' ahead of training camp, he told reporters on Saturday, July 13. 'My Achilles feels good, you know. I felt really good at the end of last year,' Rodgers said. 'Then, you know, there's always that kind of plateau part. It's just about getting back into it. I felt good all spring.'

From TheHuddle

Kyle Juszczyk Jul 14 12:40pm CT
Kyle Juszczyk

San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk admits that he was "hurt" when the team came to him this offseason and asked him to take a pay cut after just completing his seventh Pro Bowl campaign with the organization. With so many other highly paid players on the team and several others in line for big pay days, the 49ers' front office made some cost-cutting moves in the offseason, including releasing defensive tackle Arik Armstead after he declined to take a pay cut. Juszczyk accepted his pay cut and remains the highest-paid fullback in the league at more than $4.5 million per season. "No knocks on other fullbacks in the league, but I'm the best fullback in the league," Juszczyk said. The 33-year-old will once again have a key blocking role for the best running back in the league in 2024 in Christian McCaffrey.

From RotoBaller

Tua Tagovailoa Jul 14 12:30pm CT
Tua Tagovailoa

The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have yet to work out a long-term contract extension, but Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill believes his QB should be one of the highest-paid signal-callers in the league. "For people to like sit here and try to discredit Tua and say he's not deserving of a contract is wild to me," Hill said. "A lot of guys on the team understand his value and understand that we need him. We need his leadership, we need the mindset that he brings into each and every week. It's there. It's like Terminator almost, man. I feel like he should be one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league." Tagovailoa is heading into his fifth year in the NFL and is coming off a career year in which he led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards and added 29 touchdowns while completing 69.3% of his passes in 17 regular-season games.

From RotoBaller

Tee Higgins Jul 14 12:10pm CT
Tee Higgins

The Cincinnati Bengals and star wide receiver Tee Higgins won't come to terms on a long-term contract extension by Monday's deadline. Higgins has signed his franchise tag and will play on the one-year pact in 2024 before becoming one of the top free agents next offseason. This outcome had appeared evident for some time, but now it's official. The 25-year-old will be highly motivated to produce a bounce-back season in 2024 after playing in just 12 games last year due to injuries while finishing with a career-low 42 catches for 656 yards and five touchdowns. It's possible the Bengals could franchise tag Higgins again next year or work out a tag-and-trade deal. Higgins should bounce back if he and quarterback Joe Burrow stay healthy, but his fantasy ceiling is probably capped as a WR2 with Ja'Marr Chase being the team's WR1.

From RotoBaller

Cameron Sutton Jul 14 10:03am CT
Cameron Sutton

Pittsburgh Steelers CBs Josiah Scott and Beanie Bishop Jr. are the two most likely candidates to win the team's starting nickel cornerback job, as a result of CB Cameron Sutton receiving an eight-game suspension from the National Football League. Sutton will be eligible to return for Week 10's game versus the Washington Commanders.

From TheHuddle

De'Vondre Campbell Jul 14 8:43am CT
De'Vondre Campbell

San Francisco 49ers LBs Ezekiel Turner, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Curtis Robinson, Jalen Graham, Tatum Bethune and Dee Winters are all under consideration to start at strongside linebacker to begin the 2024 season if LB Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) is unavailable to play weakside linebacker. Once Greenlaw is healthy, LB De'Vondre Campbell is expected to move from weakside linebacker to strongside linebacker.

From TheHuddle

George Kittle Jul 13 10:03pm CT
George Kittle

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle led all tight ends with 15.7 yards per reception last year, and his 7.4 yards after the catch were tied for the most at the position.

From TheHuddle

Travis Kelce Jul 13 9:13pm CT
Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce's 10.6 yards per catch in 2023 were a career low, but his 65.6 receiving yards per game and 51 first downs ranked first among tight ends.

Fantasy Spin: Kelce is no longer the unquestioned No. 1 fantasy option at the position, but he is still one of the steadiest tight performers with arguably the safest floor.

From TheHuddle

Adam Thielen Jul 13 8:40pm CT
Adam Thielen

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen feels he has more to prove to himself despite being in the NFL for over a decade. "I talk to the young guys about this all the time, is no matter who you are, no matter how old you are, no matter how many years you've been in the league, you have something to prove," Thielen said in an interview. "You have to have that mindset every single day." The 33-year-old is coming off a productive season, amassing his first 1,000-yard receiving campaign since 2018 while finding the end zone four times. Although the Panthers have a lot of question marks regarding the offense, it appears Thielen is not ready to stop being a reliable fantasy asset anytime soon.

From RotoBaller

Bijan Robinson Jul 13 12:20pm CT
Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson was slowed by a left-ankle sprain in the offseason, but he'll be fine for training camp and is ready for the team to put more on his plate in his sophomore season. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and head coach Raheem Morris haven't been shy about saying the plan is to use Robinson like the 49ers use RB Christian McCaffrey. He finished 15th in the league in 2023 with 976 rushing yards while also adding 58 receptions for 487 yards and eight total touchdowns. With a more diversified attack on offense after Atlanta stuck with a wide-zone rushing attack in 2023, there's plenty of room for growth for Robinson as a high-end RB1 in fantasy, especially with quarterback Kirk Cousins now leading the offense. "I'm going to be more of a runner that does everything else," Robinson said.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers Jul 13 12:10pm CT
Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) said he "feels good" when asked about his status with training camp approaching at the end of July. Rodgers tore his Achilles on the first offensive series in Week 1 last fall and missed the rest of his first year in New York. However, he miraculously returned to practices late last season and said his surgically repaired Achilles has felt good throughout the offseason and during organized team activities a month ago. A healthy Rodgers should give Gang Green a realistic shot at the postseason given all the weapons they have on offense, but fantasy managers should temper expectations for a 40-year-old signal-caller coming off a major injury. If he stays healthy, Rodgers could easily finish as a top-15 fantasy QB, but relying on him as your QB1 is a risky proposition.

From RotoBaller

Justin Simmons Jul 13 11:33am CT
Justin Simmons

Free-agent S Justin Simmons (Broncos) is not sure when he'll sign with a team in free agency, he said on Thursday, July 11. 'Who knows? I could sign tomorrow, I could sign two weeks into camp, I could sign the first game of the season. You just never know how these things go,' he said. 'So, it's caused me to slow down and give up control because it's not in my control.'

From TheHuddle

Audric Estime Jul 12 10:06pm CT
Audric Estime

Denver Broncos rookie fifth-round running back Audric Estime (knee) missed most of the offseason program after undergoing a minor scope of his knee, but he's expected to be "full-go" for the starting of training camp in a few weeks, according to head coach Sean Payton. In limited action in front of the media this offseason, Estime looked the part of a RB who can bring more short-yardage toughness to Denver's backfield, but it remains to be seen if he can supplant Javonte Williams as an every-down option in 2024. The 20-year-old from Notre Dame is probably a long shot to become the team's lead back, at least earlier in his rookie season, but he could take over goal-line duties fairly quickly, which could make him worth a late-round flier in deep fantasy leagues as a handcuff for Williams.