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RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Bo Nix Sep 29 11:00pm CT
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Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix led his second straight upset road win over the New York Jets on Sunday on a rain-soaked afternoon by the score of 10-9. After his best game of his young NFL career in Week 3 against the Bucs, Nix unsurprisingly took a step back against a tough defense in adverse conditions, going 12-for-25 for just 60 yards, although he did throw the first touchdown of his career and avoided turnovers for the second straight week. His lone TD pass was a hook-up with receiver Courtland Sutton in the back of the end zone. He added five carries for three yards. The 24-year-old led the Broncos to just 186 total yards on the day and has thrown for one touchdown through his first four games in his rookie campaign. Nix has intriguing rushing ability and a strong arm, but he's inexperienced and doesn't have a great supporting cast. There's just very little fantasy upside right now, although he's heading into a much better matchup against Vegas in Week 5.

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Jordan Mason Sep 29 10:40pm CT
Jordan Mason

San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason pulled his weight for fantasy players in a 30-13 victory over the New England Patriots on Sunday. He finished with 24 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown, plus two catches on three targets for 37 yards receiving. He also had a 38-yard touchdown catch-and-run nullified by a questionable holding call in the second quarter. Fantasy managers using Mason as an RB1 have to be happy that rookie running back Isaac Guerendo only took one carry on Sunday after cutting slightly into Mason's workload for five carries in Week 4. In retrospect, it seems Guerendo's increased involvement in Week 3 was a function of receiver Deebo Samuel Sr.'s absence. Mason's been one of the great values for shrewd fantasy players in 2024 who took him late in drafts as a stash or snapped him up on waivers after Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) was ruled out before Week 1. Mason will once again be a bell-cow RB1 in CMC's extended absence next Sunday at home against the Arizona Cardinals.

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Brock Purdy Sep 29 10:00pm CT
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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy had a decent fantasy day in a 30-13 victory over the New England Patriots in Santa Clara. He finished with 15 completions of 27 attempts for 288 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He added 11 yards on five scrambles and fumbled twice, but lost neither. Purdy's touchdown came on a gutsy back corner throw to tight end George Kittle who had two defenders draped on him but high-pointed the catch. His interception was a long pass thrown into double coverage to receiver Brandon Aiyuk in the endzone. Sunday's game script limited Purdy's fantasy day, leading to a season-low 27 pass attempts. San Francisco tallied the first points, jumped to a 20-0 lead, and maintained control of the scoreboard throughout the game. In Week 5, Purdy and the 49ers will look to climb above .500 when they host the Arizona Cardinals.

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Rashee Rice Sep 29 9:43pm CT
Rashee Rice

Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice may have a torn ACL. Dynasty Analysis: This would be a significant blow to the title hopes of the Cheifs as Rice hasn't just been the best receiver on their team, but one of the best in the league. With 24 catches for 288 yards and two touchdowns, Rice had been electric though three games. Unfortunately, it looks like a freak collision with Patrick Mahomes is going to end his season. We'll wait to see the diagnosis tomorrow but it seems clear his knee injury is significant. Stay tuned.

Kareem Hunt Sep 29 9:43pm CT
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Dynasty | Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt had 69 rushing yards on 14 carries in a win against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: He added two catches for 16 yards. Hunt surprisingly led the Kansas City running backs with 16 touches, while Carson Steele (three touches and a lost fumble), and Samaje Perine (five carries) were afterthoughts. This could be a big development in Kansas City after the Chiefs potentially lost Rashee Rice for the season. Hunt will need to show more next week to be trusted in lineups but he should be on dynasty rosters everywhere after today's surprise workload.

Budda Baker Sep 29 9:43pm CT
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Arizona Cardinals S Budda Baker finished with 14 tackles, including 10 solo stops, in a 42-14 loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 4.

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Travis Kelce Sep 29 9:42pm CT
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Dynasty | Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had seven catches for 89 yards in a win against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Kelce had been famously quiet over the first three weeks but Kansas City got him much more involved today. Unfortunately for the Chiefs (but fortunately for dynasty managers), Kelce is likely going to be much more of a necessity than a luxury moving forward if Rashee Rice has indeed suffered a season-ending injury. Kelce remains a solid option and possible buy low candidate for contending teams.

Jordan Mason Sep 29 9:42pm CT
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Dynasty | 49ers running back Jordan Mason had 123 rushing yards, two catches, 37 receiving yards and a touchdown in a win against New England. Dynasty Analysis: Mason has been fantastic each and every week as he continues to keep the seat warm for Christian McCaffrey. While his short-term value is great, his long-term value is going to be in question when McCaffrey comes back. Still, Mason managers won't complain too much as he looks like the easy starter for at least another month. Mason is a locked and loaded RB1 until CMC makes his return.

Jauan Jennings Sep 29 9:42pm CT
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Dynasty | 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings had three catches for 88 yards in a win against New England. Dynasty Analysis: Another week, another solid game for Jennings. While this was a far cry from his 11/175/3 blow-up last game, he still led the 49ers in receiving yards for a second straight week and his six targets led the team. At this point, it's clear the 49ers don't really have an alpha receiver and Brock Purdy may just be good enough to keep Jennings, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk all valuable this season.

James Conner Sep 29 9:23pm CT
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Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner rushed 18 times for 104 yards and a touchdown and caught a nine-yard pass in a 42-14 loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 4.

Fantasy Spin: Outside of his dud against Detroit, Conner has been a reliable option for the Arizona offense and for fantasy owners. He has scored in three of the four games, topping 100 yards twice.

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Jacoby Brissett Sep 29 9:23pm CT
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New England Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett completed 19-of-32 passes for 168 yards, one touchdown and one interception in Week 4 against the San Francisco 49ers, and he added two runs for three yards while fumbling three times with one lost.

Fantasy Spin: Brissett's passing yardage total was actually a season high, so that tells you a little about his fantasy appeal. He has just two passing scores and the one pick. Brissett isn't doing much, except for keeping the starting job warm for rookie Drake Maye. For fantasy purposes, Brissett should be avoided until absolutely desperate in 2QB leagues when the byes kick in.

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Ladd McConkey Sep 29 9:13pm CT
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Dynasty | Chargers rookie receiver Ladd McConkey had five catches for 67 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Chiefs. Dynasty Analysis: While McConkey has yet to have a monster "blow-up" game, he's been about as consistent as a rookie can get with 24 targets, 176 receiving yards and a couple of scores through the first month of the year. He'll remain a decent high floor option moving forward and seems to have justified his late first round rookie pedigree thus far.

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Jayden Daniels Sep 29 9:13pm CT
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Marvin Harrison Jr. Sep 29 9:13pm CT
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Bobby Wagner Sep 29 9:13pm CT
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Washington Commanders LB Bobby Wagner finished with 11 tackles, including seven solo stops, and 0.5 sacks in a 42-14 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. Sep 29 9:10pm CT
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Despite the Arizona Cardinals' struggles to score in Sunday's 42-14 loss to the Washington Commanders, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. found the end zone for the fourth time this season. In addition to the touchdown, Harrison Jr. caught five passes for 45 yards, securing all but one of his targets. He has emerged as a reliable playmaker for the Cardinals, someone they can depend on in tough situations. Harrison Jr. will likely remain a focal point in their game plan as the offense regains its scoring rhythm. Fantasy managers should continue to keep him in their starting lineups, even with a tough Week 5 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

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Colby Parkinson Sep 29 9:10pm CT
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Los Angeles Rams tight end Colby Parkinson hauled in 4-of-7 targets for 33 yards in Sunday's 24-18 loss to the Chicago Bears. His long gain of the day went for just 11 yards. Parkinson and the rest of the Rams' passing attack couldn't get much going on a day where their only touchdown came on the back of a three-yard score on the ground by Kyren Williams. Since the loss of superstar wideout Cooper Kupp (ankle), quarterback Matthew Stafford has not thrown for more than 224 yards or more than one touchdown in a single outing. The 25-year-old tight end has seen his volume tick up each of the past three weeks, but he's yet to have a standout game despite the lack of quality options in LA's aerial assault. His seven targets were a season-high, but 7.3 total fantasy points are only good enough for the current TE14 on the week. Unless circumstances drastically change around him, the former fourth-round pick will not be a recommended fantasy option in Week 5 when the team hosts the visiting Green Bay Packers.

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Zach Ertz Sep 29 9:03pm CT
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Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz caught all three of his targets for 22 yards in a 42-14 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4.

Fantasy Spin: Ertz has a steady role in the offense, but he is limited to short, underneath routes. Despite his lack of upside, the tight end position is thin enough to give Ertz some streaming potential as bye weeks begin.

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Jonathan Mingo Sep 29 9:00pm CT
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Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo racked up three catches and 24 yards on five targets in the team's 34-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The second-year wideout finished with the third-most yards and targets on the team but finished one reception shy of Chuba Hubbard for the same honor. The Panthers didn't get back into the win column in this one, but they at least made it a game against a Bengals squad starving for a win. After two weeks of an Andy Dalton-led offense, it is evident that the team is in much better hands with him under center. Mingo's five targets matched the previous season-high he accrued back in Week 1, but veteran WR Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette each accumulated double-digit targets in this one. The former second-round pick will be tough to trust moving forward as more than a dart throw option on a weekly basis until his usage ticks up in Carolina's passing attack. The Panthers will take on the 2-2 Chicago Bears on the road in Week 5.

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Jeremy McNichols Sep 29 8:53pm CT
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Washington Commanders RB Jeremy McNichols rushed eight times for 68 yards and two touchdowns and caugt a six-yard pass in a 42-14 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4.

Fantasy Spin: McNichols served as a the backup to Brian Robinson Jr. with Austin Ekeler sidelined, and McNichols certainly made the most of the opportunity. Despite the strong showing, McNichols is unlikely to have a role once Ekeler is ready to return.

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