RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 3
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III will look to continue his modest production when the team squares off against the Kansas City Chiefs in a Sunday night home tilt. The sixth-year veteran has been more involved in Atlanta's offense than initially anticipated in 2024. He's recorded the third-most snaps of any Falcons wideout (91) -- behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney -- and leads all Atlanta pass-catchers with 12 targets. McCloud is also just nine yards behind Mooney in receiving yardage for the team lead (94). The 27-year-old is unlikely to continue leading the team in such categories as the season churns on. However, he should remain involved and will become a more intriguing option in deeper leagues as Kirk Cousins continues to shake off the rust and recovers from his 2023 Achilles injury. The Falcons will have their work cut out for them this week against a tough Chiefs defense, but McCloud looks like a decent WR4 for now.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Kameron Johnson (ankle) has officially been ruled out for Sunday's Week 3 home matchup against the Denver Broncos. Johnson started the week with a limited practice on Wednesday before downgrading to a DNP on Thursday and Friday. In anticipation of his absence, Tampa Bay has elevated wide receiver Sterling Shepherd off its practice squad for depth at the position. The 22-year-old rookie has been a distant option for the Bucs so far in 2024, recording the fewest snaps of all wideouts (11) and failing to earn a single target in the passing game. His lone touch on the year was a carry he advanced for no gain. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will remain the de facto top two targets for Baker Mayfield, with Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer picking up the scraps in a smash spot for the team this weekend.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins placed wide receiver Grant DuBose (shoulder) on injured reserve Saturday due to a shoulder injury. DuBose popped up on the Dolphins' injury report this past Wednesday as a limited participant in practice. He then proceeded to miss Thursday and Friday before a trip to IR was determined as his best course of action. He'll now miss at least the next four games. The 23-year-old has recorded just one catch for 13 yards across three targets thus far and has logged the fourth-most wide receiver snaps for the team (39) behind Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Braxton Berrios. With DuBose on the shelf, expect Robbie Chosen to absorb his snaps. However, it is difficult to recommend any Miami wideout with quarterback Skylar Thompson filling in for an injured Tua Tagovailoa (concussion). The Dolphins will take on the Seahawks in Seattle this Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell grabbed just one of his four targets for 30 yards in the team's Week 2 loss. Now he and the Colts gear up to host the Chicago Bears in a Week 3 matchup on Sunday. Despite not stuffing the stat sheet, Mitchell has racked up nine targets in his first two games, nearly connecting with QB Anthony Richardson on multiple deep passes. Despite the favorable usage, the Colts will welcome back WR Josh Downs (ankle) back into the rotation, and it's unclear how affected Mitchell's snap share from the first two weeks will be. On top of that, Chicago has done a decent job of quieting down receivers, allowing the 12th-least fantasy points to the position. Fantasy managers might want to keep Mitchell on the bench in Week 3, waiting to see how the playing time splits up between the receivers now that Downs is making his season debut.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce held up his hot start to the season in Week 2 when he caught five catches for 56 yards and another touchdown. Pierce has been a mainstay in the Colts offense so far and has been on the receiving end from multiple deep shot passes from QB Anthony Richardson. He now gears up for a home matchup against the Chicago Bears, a team that's allowed the 12th-least fantasy points to the position. While Chicago's No. 1 piece in the secondary in Jaylon Johnson will likely be more focused on Michael Pittman Jr., it does open up the opportunity for Pierce to produce. That being said, he doesn't provide an incredibly safe floor with the limited passing volume by this Colts offense. Combining all that, fantasy managers in deeper leagues can look to Pierce as a boom-or-bust FLEX option in Week 3, hoping he can catch a few deep passes from Richardson.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is coming off an incredibly productive Week 2 showing, running the ball 12 times for 103 yards. He also grabbed two of his four targets for another 32 yards in the air. He now gets ready for a Week 3 home matchup against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have been in the middle of the pack defending the run this season, allowing the 15th least fantasy points to RBs. Despite the average matchup, Taylor can make up for that with his high-end volume. Taylor has seen an 88.9% opportunity share this season, the fourth most amongst all backs. With all that in mind, Taylor is a strong start again in Week 3, and managers in all formats can target him as an RB1.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is coming off of a weak Week 2 showing, throwing for just 204 yards, one touchdown, and totaling three interceptions. He also ran the ball four times for 37 yards on the ground. He now gears up for a matchup with the Chicago Bears, a team allowing the sixth-least fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. While on paper the matchup isn't great, Richardson and the Colts' offense is expecting WR Josh Downs (ankle) back in action, a key piece for them in the receiving game last season. As always, Richardson's rushing upside makes him an elite fantasy quarterback week in and week out, and this week isn't the exception. While Richardson doesn't provide as safe of a floor as some of the other top-tier QB options with his low passing volume, he still makes for a strong start in all formats in Week 3.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo has been one of the more reliable kicking options over the last few years. Koo looks to continue that in 2024 as he has yet to miss a kick through two weeks of the season. He connected on all three of his field goal attempts during last week's win over the Philadelphia Eagles. He should continue to get chances if this offense can continue clicking like they did in Week 2. The Falcons should be able to move the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs who rank in the middle of the road in terms of defense. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable with Koo as their kicker for Week 3.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (hip) has been cleared to play ahead of the Week 3 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The young back opened up the week as a limited participant, but it appears he's fully healthy now. The Falcons continue to use a run-heavy approach, which is good news for Allgeier. However, Bijan Robinson is the lead back and the primary option in the running game. Last week, Allgeier did rush nine times for 53 yards in the win over the Philadelphia Eagles. He's averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season, which is great to see. However, the weekly volume is unknown and Allgeier is barely involved in the passing game. That being said, Allgeier is at best a boom-or-bust RB4 for Week 3.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney is coming off a decent performance, but a game that could've been much bigger. Mooney and quarterback Kirk Cousins haven't quite been on the same page early in the season. Luckily, Mooney was able to salvage his value last week with a 41-yard touchdown. He hauled in three of his seven targets for 88 yards and a TD in the win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2. The hope is that Mooney can build off that during Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Mooney is technically the No. 2 option on this offense, but they've struggled to move the ball through the air. Mooney does carry some flex appeal, but is more of a boom-or-bust deep league option.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Tim Patrick has been elevated from the practice squad ahead of the Week 3 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Patrick is back on the active roster for the second week in a row. Last week, Patrick hauled in two of his four targets for 12 yards in the loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 30-year-old can only be elevated one more time following Sunday's game, after which the Lions have to sign him to the active roster if he want him to play. Patrick might end up sticking on the team as depth, but probably won't have much of a role behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in this offense.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tackle Vita Vea (knee) is currently listed as doubtful ahead of the Week 3 matchup against the Denver Broncos. Vea missed the first two practice sessions of the week before getting in a limited session on Friday. The superstar tackle suffered a MCL sprain during the Week 2 win over the Detroit Lions. It sounds like the Pro Bowl nose tackle might be able to play through the issue, but we'll see if the Bucs decide to take the cautious approach instead. If Vea sits, Greg Gaines would likely be asked to step up and start against the Denver Broncos. The loss of Vea would be a significant blow to the Bucs defense that is already dealing with a handful of injuries.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby (shoulder) is considered questionable ahead of the Week 3 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Bigsby was limited in practice all week due to a lingering shoulder issue that he suffered last week. At first, Bigsby was considered active for Week 3, but now has been downgraded to questionable on the injury report. Bigsby rushed 12 times for 73 yards in the season opener, but saw little action in Week 2 due to his injury. Travis Etienne Jr. is the lead back, but it seems like the Jaguars do want to involve Bigsby as well. Bigsby will fall into the RB3 conversation if cleared for Monday's game.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys DE Carl Lawson and LB Nick Vigil were elevated from the practice squad for Week 3 on Saturday, Sept. 21.
From TheHuddle
Los Angeles Chargers LB Bud Dupree (illness) is expected to play in Week 3, per source on Saturday, Sept. 21.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Kameron Johnson (ankle) and DT Vita Vea (knee) were downgraded to out for Week 3 on Saturday, Sept. 21. Also, WR Sterling Shepard and DL Mike Greene were elevated from the practice squad.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions WRs Tim Patrick and Allen Robinson were elevated from the practice squad for Week 3 on Saturday, Sept. 21.
From TheHuddle
Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram (hamstring) did not practice on Saturday, Sept. 21, and was ruled out for Week 3. Also, RB Tank Bigsby (shoulder), DB Darnell Savage (quadriceps) and WR Tim X. Jones were limited and are questionable, OT Cam Robinson (knee) was a full participant and has no designation, and DE Arik Armstead (rest) did not practice but carries no designation.
From TheHuddle
Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram (hamstring) did not practice once again on Saturday, Sept. 21, and has been ruled out for Week 3.
Fantasy Spin: No surprise here, as head coach Doug Pederson said earlier in the day that Engram wasn't expected to play. Engram's absence offers a slight bump to the Jags' top pass-catchers but Jacksonville doesn't have a viable starting option at tight end behind him.
From TheHuddle
New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill (chest) has been downgraded to doubtful for Sunday's matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. The veteran tight end left the Week 2 win over the Dallas Cowboys with a chest injury and spent time at a local hospital getting tests done. Thankfully, he avoided a significant injury. However, Hill was a limited participant in practice the past two days, making him a likely longshot to play against the Eagles. Juwan Johnson will see an uptick in targets and snaps, with Hill likely out of the lineup.
From RotoBaller
