Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
The Invitational Live Stream
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Easop Winston Jr. caught three of his four targets for 47 yards and a touchdown in Saturday's preseason loss to the Tennessee Titans. The score was an absolute beauty. Barely a step ahead of cornerback Tre Avery, Winston looked over his shoulder as he crossed the goal line in time to snag a 23-yard arcing pass from Sam Howell for the touchdown. Winston also had a 15-yard reception with eight seconds left in the first half, advancing a drive that resulted in a field goal before the break. Winston is playing for a roster spot and, assuming he does make the cut, would be unlikely to challenge DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba for targets.
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Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey kicked a 66-yard field goal in a preseason win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Aubrey attempted two kicks, making both, one from 66 and the other from 54 yards out. He also made all three of his extra point attempts. Aubrey was the top scoring kicker in most fantasy formats last season, and all signs point to him once again being a top-five option at worst this year. He's worth being the first kicker off the board in most leagues.
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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Trey Lance tallied two touchdowns in a preseason win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Lance attempted 23 passes, completing 15 of them for 151 yards and a touchdown. He added seven rush attempts for another 34 yards and another touchdown. Lance tied for the team lead in rushes and rushing yards, and he did not take a sack. He soundly outplayed Cooper Rush, and while both may ultimately make the team if Dallas chooses to carry three quarterbacks, Dak Prescott will clearly retain the starting job.
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Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert rushed five times for seven yards during Saturday's victory against the Washington Commanders. He was not targeted in the passing game. Mostert was Miami's first RB in and out-carried his counterpart De'Von Achane by three. The 32-year-old only played the first series with the starters, as that was the Dolphins' lone possession of the first quarter. Running room was tough to find on a day when Washington's defense stifled Miami's ground game. The only player to rush for more than ten yards Saturday was backup RB Chris Brooks, who ran for a long gain of 59 yards. However, he gained just four yards on his other four carries. It wasn't a great showing for Mostert, but it is clear that he is still the Dolphins' preferred first option out of the backfield -- particularly in short-yardage situations. He's being selected as the RB23 as per Yahoo!'s ADP -- 42 picks after Achane -- and remains a strong option in fantasy drafts with built-in upside if the backfield were to become solely his.
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Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey made his first catch as an NFL player in a Chargers preseason loss to the Rams. McConkey did not play in the first Chargers preseason game, so Game 2 was his NFL debut. He was targeted just once and made his lone catch for a five yard gain. McConkey likely won't get a ton of run in the preseason given how big his offensive role is expected to be. As long as Justin Herbert (foot) is able to play, McConkey could be a PPR monster as early as Week 1.
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Los Angeles Chargers rookie running back Kimani Vidal led the Chargers backfield in their second preseason game. Vidal ran the ball 11 times for 49 yards, leading the team in both carries and yards. He was also targeted three times in the passing game, catching two for an additional eight yards. Vidal is behind at least Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins on the depth chart, but the sixth-round rookie has certainly shown some promise so far.
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New York Jets running back Isaiah Davis picked up 14 yards on four carries in Saturday's preseason win over the hosting Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Davis also caught his lone target for no gain in Saturday's victory over Carolina. The Jets chose the 22-year-old South Dakota State product in the fifth round of this past spring's NFL Draft to bolster their backfield depth following last year's losses of backups Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter. While he reeled in four passes for 33 yards in last week's preseason opener, Davis' impact in the receiving game figures to be minimal behind workhorse starter Breece Hall this season, and he looks to be no greater than the No. 3 option on the depth chart ahead of his final chance to make a case for a spot on New York's roster in next Saturday's preseason finale at MetLife Stadium against the New York Giants.
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Arizona Cardinals quarterback Clayton Tune got the start on Saturday in their contest with the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Tune was 8-of-10 passing for 79 yards, while adding two rushes for 15 yards and a touchdown. His touchdown was a 12-yard scamper after being flushed out of the pocket and rolling right to beat a defender to the corner of the end zone for the score. Tune is battling former Atlanta Falcon Desmond Ridder for the QB2 job behind Kyler Murray and Tune may just have the leg up on that job after tonight. You can leave Tune undrafted in fantasy, however, as Tune would only have fantasy value if Murray misses any time during the season.
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New York Jets running back Israel Abanikanda led the team with 29 rushing yards in Saturday's preseason victory over the hosting Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Abanikanda handled six carries in Saturday's win over the Panthers, rushing for 12 yards on his longest pickup. Abanikanda, a 2023 fifth-round pick out of Pittsburgh, should be able to make New York's roster as a third- or fourth-string back behind workhorse starter Breece Hall and rookie fourth-rounder Braelon Allen this season, but he's likely to need a number of variables to fall into his favor in order to muster fantasy relevance in 2024. Next Saturday's preseason finale in the Meadowlands against the New York Giants will be Abanikanda's final chance to establish his role on the Jets.
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