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RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 4

Player Notes
Jonathan Mingo Sep 27 8:50pm CT
Jonathan Mingo

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo could see his usage tick up in Week 4 when the team hosts the Cincinnati Bengals. Mingo was already set for a more significant role, with wide receiver Adam Thielen (hamstring) heading to injured reserve. Now, the second-year wideout could be an even more prominent target, with Diontae Johnson (groin) turning up on the team's injury report after missing Thursday's practice. Johnson did log a limited session on Friday, but he's listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's matchup. Fellow wideout Xavier Legette is also projected to pick up some slack in the Panthers' passing attack. Even before Thielen's injury, Mingo was the next man up, as he had the third-most WR snaps on the team after Week 2. It remains to be seen if quarterback Andy Dalton will attempt nearly 40 passes again (37), but if he does and Johnson is not at 100%, Mingo would have the opportunity to post a productive line. Cincinnati's defense hasn't let up a ton of yardage through the air thus far, but they have been quite porous on the ground -- allowing the eighth-most rush yards in the league. Mingo projects as a low-end FLEX with upside for the affair.

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Skylar Thompson Sep 27 8:30pm CT
Skylar Thompson

Miami Dolphins quarterback Skylar Thompson (ribs) was listed as limited in the team's Friday practice. It's the second practice in a row he's been designated as such. While the news that he has been able to participate in some fashion is at least encouraging, reports out of Thursday's practice were not exactly glowing. Thompson was seen with a brace under his pads and did not take many throws. Additionally, head coach Mike McDaniel has yet to be inclined to name a starter for Miami's Week 4 matchup against the Tennessee Titans. His lack of a decision is partly due to his desire to gain a competitive edge, but maybe he is holding off to see if the 27-year-old can make enough progress to suit up. Perhaps this is a pain management issue for the former seventh-round pick. Regardless, he'll have one more chance to positively affect his status ahead of this week's contest in the team's final practice on Saturday. If he cannot play, either Tyler Huntley or Tim Boyle will get the start for the Fins. It is believed Huntley will be named the starter. However, fantasy managers will want to monitor this situation for a few more days.

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Bo Nix Sep 27 8:00pm CT
Bo Nix

The New York Jets defense draws a great matchup at home against the Denver Broncos in Week 4. The Broncos have struggled on offense this season, ranking 23rd in points per game and 26th in yards per game through three weeks. The Jets boast one of the more talented defenses in the league and find themselves in a great spot against rookie quarterback Bo Nix in front of their home crowd. With New York installed as 7.5-point home favorites in a game with a low 39.5 over/under, fantasy gamers should start the Jets defense with confidence heading into Week 4.

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Tyler Conklin Sep 27 7:50pm CT
Tyler Conklin

New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin had his best game of the season in Week 3, catching five passes for 93 yards in a win over the New England Patriots. Conklin will look to stay hot in a home game against the Denver Broncos in Week 4. The Broncos have been vulnerable against tight ends this season, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position through three weeks. On the other hand, Denver has been extremely tough on wide receivers, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game. As such, the Jets could look to lean on Conklin when they take to the air in Week 4, making him an interesting option as an upside TE2 for fantasy managers.

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Greg Zuerlein Sep 27 7:50pm CT
Greg Zuerlein

New York Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein had made two of his three field-goal attempts and all seven of his extra points through the first three games of the season. He will look for more chances to kick in Week 4's home matchup against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have been stingy against kickers this season, allowing just the 25th-most fantasy points per game to the position thus far. Zuerlein hasn't been getting enough field-goal attempts to trust in fantasy this season, leaving him outside of the top 15 at the position for Week 4.

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Mike Williams Sep 27 7:40pm CT
Mike Williams

New York Jets wide receiver Mike Williams has shown moderate improvement in each of his three games this season as he gets further and further removed from a torn ACL that he suffered in 2023. Williams will look to continue his upward trajectory at home in Week 4 against the Denver Broncos. Denver has been tough on opposing wideouts this season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position through three games. That being said, Garrett Wilson should occupy most of lockdown cornerback Patrick Surtain II's attention in Week 4, which would free Williams up for a larger target share. Williams is by no means a safe fantasy play but he's on the board as a boom/bust flex option heading into Week 4.

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Raheem Mostert Sep 27 7:40pm CT
Raheem Mostert

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (chest) was listed as a limited participant in practice on Friday for the second day in a row. Mostert suffered a chest injury in the Week 1 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and has missed the last two games. However, with two limited showings this week, he could be on his way to returning for a Week 4 tilt on Monday night versus the Tennessee Titans at Hard Rock Stadium. Pain tolerance is the issue for the 32-year-old veteran, but he is optimistic he'll have a chance to play on Monday. Even if Mostert manages to be active against the Titans, he'll most likely be the No. 2 behind explosive back De'Von Achane, limiting his flex appeal in fantasy lineups, especially if he's eased back in. In the season opener, Mostert played 44% of the snaps (Achane had 52%) and produced just nine yards on six carries while catching two passes for 10 yards. Mostert is shaping up as an extremely volatile flex option in Week 4.

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Allen Lazard Sep 27 7:40pm CT
Allen Lazard

New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard has been revitalized in his second year with the team, having caught three touchdowns through three games. He will look to stay hot in Week 4's home matchup against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have been tough on fantasy wideouts this season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game thus far. That being said, No. 1 receiver Garrett Wilson should draw most of the coverage from star cornerback Patrick Surtain II on Sunday, leaving Lazard to enjoy an easier matchup. Lazard is a boom/bust play in Week 4 but he's worth considering as a flex option, especially for fantasy gamers dealing with injuries to key players.

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Jahan Dotson Sep 27 7:30pm CT
Jahan Dotson

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jahan Dotson will go on the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. The 24-year-old has been quiet through three weeks, amassing just three receptions for 14 yards. While he has come along slow as he learns the Eagles offensive system, he has increased his snap percentage each week, ending last week with 88%. However, Dotson failed to impress with no A.J. Brown (hamstring) last week, but now has the chance to step up against with DeVonta Smith (concussion) ruled out and Brown questionable. Rookie Johnny Wilson is another name that will see an increase in usage, but Dotson is the one who is expected to be the No. 2 receiver if Brown is active and the top one if Brown sits out again. The matchup shouldn't scare anyone away for fantasy purposes, but because no wide receiver outside of Brown and Smith has done anything this year thus far, the former Washington Commander is tough to trust. If Brown is out, Dotson turns into a risky flex play, while he remains a WR4/5 if Brown is active.

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Trevor Lawrence Sep 27 7:30pm CT
Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence should be closer to drop consideration than starting consideration for fantasy managers in Week 4 against the Houston Texans. The Houston defense has been solid so far this year, but for the struggling Jaguars offense, that is still a tough matchup. Lawrence has put up around ten fantasy points in each of the first three games, a terrible output for a starting fantasy QB. The former top pick has played far from that level, putting up just two passing touchdowns through three games. After being blown out 47-10 by the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, it is easy to completely write off Lawrence and the Jaguars offense. However, a matchup with a division rival the week after an embarrassing blowout could mean a more motivated and improved version of the Jacksonville offense. For now though, Lawrence at best should be kept on benches, and at worst be dropped by fantasy managers in Week 4.

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Dallas Goedert Sep 27 7:30pm CT
Dallas Goedert

Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert will go on the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. The 29-year-old had the best receiving performance of his career last weekend, nabbing 10 of 11 targets for 170 yards. The Eagles were without A.J. Brown (hamstring) and lost DeVonta Smith (concussion) later in the contest, leaving the door wide open for Goedert to have a massive performance. The same could happen this week, as Smith was ruled out and Brown is currently listed as questionable. If both miss, the veteran tight end becomes the immediate top target for quarterback Jalen Hurts against a stiff Tampa Bay defense. While the matchup is not favorable, fantasy managers should continue to start Goedert this week with all of the injuries along the Eagles receiving corps.

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Kenneth Walker III Sep 27 7:30pm CT
Kenneth Walker III

Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (oblique) put in a second straight day with a limited practice on Friday. Walker has missed the last two games with an oblique injury but has an extra day of rest this week heading into a Week 4 contest on Monday Night Football versus the Detroit Lions on the road. As things stand now, the 23-year-old appears to be on track to return, barring a setback, but he could also go down as questionable on the team's final injury report on Saturday. A questionable tag would make Walker a difficult fantasy decision with his game being on Monday night, unless managers have backfield mate Zach Charbonnet handcuffed to him. Walker is Seattle's clear lead back when healthy. Charbonnet is a plug-and-play option in fantasy without Walker. In the last two games that Walker missed, Charbonnet had a total of 32 carries for 129 yards and three touchdowns while adding eight receptions for 47 yards. Check back Saturday for Walker's official Week 4 designation.

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Jake Elliott Sep 27 7:30pm CT
Jake Elliott

Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott will go on the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. The 29-year-old had the best season of his career in 2023 but has been off to a slow start in 2024. Last week was a defensive back-and-forth between the Eagles and Saints, leaving Elliott with one failed field goal attempt and only one extra-point conversion. Things should be better this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Eagles offense could struggle to move the ball with DeVonta Smith (concussion) out and A.J. Brown (hamstring) questionable. Elliott is shaping up to be a boom-or-bust streaming option in Week 4.

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Braelon Allen Sep 27 7:30pm CT
Braelon Allen

New York Jets running back Braelon Allen has run for at least 55 yards or a touchdown in each of his past two games as he looks to carve out a meaningful role in the running game behind Breece Hall. The rookie running back will look to continue to ascend when he takes on the Denver Broncos at home in Week 4. The Broncos have been mediocre against running backs in 2024, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game to the position through three weeks. Allen remains behind Hall but he is getting enough work to merit consideration as a flex option in fantasy moving forward. The Broncos have done an excellent job shutting down opponents' passing attacks this season, so the Jets could skew a bit more run-heavy than usual in Week 4. Treat Allen as an RB3/ flex option this weekend.

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Johnny Wilson Sep 27 7:20pm CT
Johnny Wilson

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Johnny Wilson will go on the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. The rookie caught the first reception of his young career last week, but did nothing of note past that and even committed a costly penalty. However, with DeVonta Smith (concussion) out this week and no guarantee that A.J. Brown (hamstring) will make his return after being labeled as questionable, Wilson should see an increase in usage. His snap percentage has gone up slowly each week, and Wilson should easily clear the 33% of snaps that he played last weekend. Anyone outside of Smith and Brown have done little to nothing for the Eagles through three weeks, but there is no real choice for quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Eagles coaching staff if those two options are not available. The 23-year-old should be considered on the flex borderline in deep leagues if Brown sits and is closer to a WR4/5 if Brown is active.

From RotoBaller

Travis Etienne Sep 27 7:10pm CT
Travis Etienne

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. should be considered a serviceable RB2 in Week 4 against the Houston Texans. The Houston defense did well against the run in the first two weeks, limiting the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears rushing attacks. In Week 3, they got torched by the Minnesota Vikings, led by Aaron Jones, who put up 148 total yards on 24 touches. The Jaguars offense has struggled, coming off a 47-10 smackdown against the Buffalo Bills last Monday. A matchup with a division rival coming off an embarrassment on Monday Night Football could be the motivation needed for a resurgence. However, expectations should be tempered, as especially with Evan Engram out once again, the offense is more likely to continue being unkind to its fantasy assets. Etienne Jr. is still a good starting option for fantasy managers, but until the offense shows signs of life, Etienne Jr. is capped at an RB2 level against the Texans.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Hurts Sep 27 7:10pm CT
Jalen Hurts

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts will go on the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a rematch of last year's Wild Card Round in Week 4. The 26-year-old struggled last week against a tough New Orleans defense, committing two turnovers and failing to score a touchdown. That was without star receiver A.J. Brown (hamstring) and the No. 2 option DeVonta Smith (concussion) left the game early. Brown is currently listed as questionable after putting in a few limited practice sessions to end the week, so Hurts could have his top target back to face off against a Buccaneers defense that will bring the blitz early and often. The rushing touchdowns have not been as plentiful for the dual-threat quarterback, but how he looks when he chooses to run the ball is eerily reminiscent of when he was a front-runner for the league MVP a few weeks ago. Even with weapons missing, fantasy managers should continue to fire up Hurts as a top-12 option this week and expect better numbers after the team's Week 5 bye.

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Saquon Barkley Sep 27 7:10pm CT
Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley will face off against the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay in Week 4. The 27-year-old is coming off of a great game in which he carried the Eagles to victory over the New Orleans Saints, scoring two touchdowns on 21 touches and tallying over 150 yards. The Tampa Bay defense is no slouch against the run and is led by star defensive tackle Vita Vea. With that said, because DeVonta Smith (concussion) has already been ruled out and A.J. Brown (hamstring) is listed as questionable, Barkley is in line for a massive workload and should have heavy involvement in the passing game. Even if Brown suits up, there is no reason to expect a lighter workload than the 21 touches Barkley amassed last week. Consider the former New York Giant a top-three fantasy option in Week 4.

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Patrick Mahomes Sep 27 7:10pm CT
Patrick Mahomes

Los Angeles Chargers outside linebacker Joey Bosa (hip) did not practice all week and has been ruled out for Week 4 against the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs. The oft-injured Bosa injured his hip on the first play of the Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and will sit out this weekend. The Chargers have their bye coming in Week 5, so the earliest the 29-year-old All-Pro pass-rusher can return to action will be in Week 6 against the division-rival Denver Broncos. It's unclear if he'll be ready to go by then. In addition to Bosa, linebacker Junior Colson (hamstring) is also out, while cornerback Kristian Fulton (knee) and defensive back Deane Leonard (hamstring). All-Pro safety Derwin James Jr. is serving a one-game suspension. It's a bad time to have key defenders sitting out against Patrick Mahomes and company. We're fading the Bolts' defense/special teams unit this week.

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Cade Otton Sep 27 7:00pm CT
Cade Otton

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton is coming off his best game of the season during last week's loss to the Denver Broncos. Otton hauled in seven of his eight targets for 47 yards in the blowout loss. Before that game, Otton had one reception for five yards entering Week 3. Fantasy managers should view Otton's seven-catch performance as more of a fluke than anything else. He's heading into a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles defense that has been a solid job against the tight end spot. Fantasy managers should view Otton as a low-end TE2 for this Week 4 matchup.

From RotoBaller