RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 5
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson was more efficient on the ground this week but was unable to turn it into a big fantasy outing as the team grabbed a hard-fought win in overtime over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Robinson finished the game with 61 yards on 12 carries while hauling in all three of his targets for 16 yards. The 5.1 yards per carry is a great stat to see, but with one less reception in this game and no touchdowns, he was unable to bounce back from a lackluster week against the New Orleans Saints. Tyler Allgeier was a bit more involved in this contest as he received nine total touches, but the story of this game was the passing game as Kirk Cousins threw the ball 58 times for 509 yards. Robinson's next chance to find the end zone will be against the Carolina Panthers in Week 6.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) has not practiced at all yet this week as he's dealing with what everyone is calling a "mild high-ankle sprain." The star back injured his ankle against the Pittsburgh Steelers in their Week 4 matchup, and Ian Rapoport believes that he's "likely to miss some time" moving forward. He noted that Taylor suiting up for their Week 5 game would be a big surprise. His status past this week will be something to monitor, especially since they don't have a bye week for added rest until Week 14. Trey Sermon is the next man up with Tyler Goodson ready to take some snaps in relief.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons WR Ray-Ray McCloud had six catches (on nine targets) for 66 yards versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday, Oct. 3.
Fantasy Spin: When you pass the ball 59 times, a lot of guys are gonna see action. That included McCloud, who has now been targeted five times or more in four of Atlanta's five games. He looks to be filling the WR3 slot behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney, but the veteran doesn't offer much to fantasy owners with his 66 yards tonight representing a new career high.
From TheHuddle
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins connected on 42 of his 58 passes for a franchise-record 509 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception during an overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday, Oct. 3. Cousins was sacked four times.
Fantasy Spin: Uneven for most of the first four games, Cousins morphed into Kirko Chainz on Thursday night, lighting up an injury-depleted Buccaneers secondary for 509 yards, which included a game-tying drive in the final seconds and a game-winning drive on the first possession of overtime. Obviously, this was a once-in-a-lifetime type performance from Cousins, but just go back to his days in Minnesota to remind yourself that he'll have weeks where he tops 300 yards with multiple TDs. He remains a nice QB2 for fantasy owners, though anyone that had him active tonight most definitely LIKED THAT!
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin had five receptions for 64 yards versus the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday, Oct. 3. He was targeted seven times.
Fantasy Spin: After a red-hot start, Godwin has gone back-to-back weeks with less than 70 yards and no touchdowns. He hasn't had a truly bad game, yet, but it feels like he's settling into more of that WR3 spot he's typically filled over the years for fantasy owners. Godwin had two of his better games of last season against the Saints (8-114-0 in Week 4, 3-81-1 in Week 17), so make sure he's in your lineup when those clubs renew acquaintances in Week 6.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans caught five passes (on seven targets) for 62 yards and a pair of touchdowns versus the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday, Oct. 3. They were the 99th and 100th touchdowns of Evans' 11-year career.
Fantasy Spin: While he still hasn't hit the 100-yard mark this season -- in fact, he's finished with less than 65 yards in all but one game -- Evans continues to demand a spot in your lineup by pushing his touchdown total on the year to five. On deck is the renewal of his legendary rivalry with Marshon Lattimore. Get your popcorn ready.
From TheHuddle
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney caught nine of 16 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns during Thursday's overtime win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was Kirk Cousins' most-targeted teammate as the quarterback attempted 58 passes for a franchise-record 509 yards through the air. Mooney delivered one of the best fantasy performances of his career, and he would've added even more points had he been able to catch a fourth-quarter pass that ultimately went through his hands and hit his chest. The 26-year-old seems to be enjoying a resurgence after leaving the Chicago Bears in free agency. Over his last four contests as a Falcon, Mooney is averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. He ranks as an appealing WR3/FLEX for Week 6 against the Carolina Panthers.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts converted eight targets into seven catches for 88 yards during Thursday's win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The young tight end still hasn't blossomed into a consistent fantasy option, but his productive showing in Week 5 was a step in the right direction. Of course, it was aided by a historic performance by Kirk Cousins, who attempted a whopping 58 passes and tallied a franchise-record 509 yards through the air. This type of yardage likely isn't sustainable for Cousins, but it's possible that his rapport with Pitts will hold strong moving forward. He remains a mid-to-low fantasy TE1 for Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver caught 12 of 13 targets for 154 yards and one touchdown during Thursday's overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. London was one of the main benefactors as quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for a franchise-record 509 yards in Week 5. He's now averaging 20.5 fantasy points (PPR) per game over the last four weeks, vaulting him into the high-end WR2 territory with WR1 upside. The 23-year-old can finally be trusted in fantasy lineups week after week. He's a must-start option heading into Week 6 against the Carolina Panthers.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford (head) was diagnosed with a concussion on Thursday night and did not return. He finished the Falcons' Week 5 game against the Buccaneers with three tackles, bringing his season total up to 28. Typically, players who enter concussion protocol miss at least one game. However, since the Falcons have 10 full days until their next contest, there's still a slight chance we could see Alford suit up for Week 5 against the Carolina Panthers. On the other hand, if he can't play, Antonio Hamilton would earn more snaps in the secondary.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield completed 19 of 24 passes for 180 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions in a Week 5 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. He added 42 yards on six carries.
Fantasy Spin: It was a tale of two halves for Mayfield, who did most of his damage before halftime with the Bucs scoring 24 points. In the second half, he did little, and the offense bogged down, resulting in Tampa Bay falling short at the end. The veteran continues to function on the edge of QB1 territory, accounting for three or more total TDs in three of five games this year but finishing with less than 200 yards passing three times as well. He averaged 278 yards, 2.5 TDs, and 1.5 INTs per game in two meetings with New Orleans in 2023. That should make him a viable starting option for Week 6.
From TheHuddle
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 42 of 58 passes for 509 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception during Thursday's overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cousins was truly dominant, setting a single-game franchise record for passing yards while leading his team to a come-from-behind victory. The veteran quarterback seems to have adapted quite well ever since a shaky Week 1 showing at home. It was a historic fantasy performance for Cousins, and while we can't count on him to throw for 509 yards and four touchdowns every week, he certainly inspired much-needed confidence in managers. Equally important was his impact on Atlanta's pass-catchers. Drake London had one of the best games of his career, catching 12 of 13 targets for a whopping 154 yards and one touchdown. Kyle Pitts found his groove with seven catches for 88 yards. Darnell Mooney turned 16 targets into nine catches, 105 yards, and two touchdowns, and he would've likely scored a third had he not dropped a pass that hit him in the chest in the final quarter. The Falcons' offense is trending upward with one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, and a tight end all on the fantasy radar heading into Week 6 against the Carolina Panthers.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens rookie running back Rasheen Ali (neck) was set to return to practice on Thursday, which opened his 21-day practice window to return from Injured Reserve. The fifth-round selection made the 53-man roster out of training camp but was moved to IR due to a neck injury in Week 1. Ali wasn't exactly wowing the coaches in training camp in August with his play, so we wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens took the whole 21 days to evaluate him in practices before adding him to the active roster as RB depth behind Derrick Henry and Justice Hill. The Marshall product also dealt with some injuries in college and primarily relies on speed in open space. Unless Henry or Hill miss time with an injury later in the year, Ali is probably going to primarily one to stash in dynasty/keeper formats.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers SS Jordan Whitehead (groin) is questionable to return to the Week 5 game against the Atlanta Falcons after exiting with a groin injury.
From TheHuddle
Denver Broncos running back Tyler Badie (back) missed practice for the second straight day this week on Thursday, and head coach Sean Payton said on Wednesday that could "possibly" be a candidate to go on Injured Reserve, which would cost him at least four games. Badie injured his back in the Week 4 win over the New York Jets and was carted off the field. The 24-year-old will almost certainly miss the Week 5 game against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders, with the Broncos likely officially ruling him out on Friday. Badie had nine carries for 70 yards in the Week 3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and might have been in line for a bigger workload before his back injury. For now with Badie likely out for multiple weeks, Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin should have safer roles as the 1A and 1B in Denver's low-scoring offense. Badie should stay on the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (knee) was limited in practice for the second straight day this week on Thursday. Receiver K.J. Osborn (shoulder) missed his second straight day of practice. Bourne, who is still on the Physically Unable to Perform list, said he "feels good" and that his knee has responded well to being back at practice this week. The Patriots aren't rushing the 29-year-old pass-catcher back, so it feels unlikely that he'll be activated from the PUP list in time to make his 2024 debut this Sunday in the divisional contest versus the Miami Dolphins. When Bourne does return, he'll be battling for targets with Demario Douglas and rookie Ja'Lynn Polk mostly in a pretty punchless offense led by veteran QB Jacoby Brissett. Bourne's best year came in 2021, when he had a 55-800-5 line in 17 games. He's currently rostered in just 1% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers are not opening the practice window for rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (chest) this week, but it won't be long until they do. "I know he is really close," head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters. "When he's good to go, we'll be pumped to have him back. Ricky is a hell of a player." Pearsall missed a bunch of valuable time in training camp due to a recurring hamstring issue and was then shot in the chest during a burglary right before the start of his rookie season. The 24-year-old remains on the Non-Football Injury list. The good news is it sounds as though he's close to getting on the practice field to work his way back. However, Pearsall has a lot of ground to cover and might need the full 21-day window before the Niners decide to put him on the active roster. Fantasy managers in single-year leagues probably shouldn't expect much, if anything, in 2024. Pearsall is currently rostered in only 8% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry needs 18 rushing yards to reach 10,000 for his career, and he is one touchdown shy of 100 total scores.
Fantasy Spin: Considering Henry has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season and enters Week 5 as the rushing leader, there is a good chance that he reaches both milestones against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
From TheHuddle
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (calf) was able to get through a limited practice session on Thursday. This is back-to-back limited practices for Wilson as he ramps up his football activities. The organization is hopeful that Wilson will be cleared to return to game action soon. Justin Fields has already been named the starter for the Week 5 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Fields has been a viable option for the Steelers, so it seems unlikely Wilson would take over even if he's healthy. Fantasy managers can leave Wilson on the waiver wire until further notice.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running backs Jaylen Warren (knee) and Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) were both unable to suit up for Thursday's practice. Warren is on the verge of missing his second straight week due to a lingering knee issue. There's still a chance he practices on Friday, but Warren is trending in the wrong direction. Patterson has also missed both practices to open the week and seems unlikely to go in Week 5. It's looking like Aaron Shampklin is in line to be the primary backup to Najee Harris for the upcoming matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
From RotoBaller
