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RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Jared Goff Oct 1 10:13am CT
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Dynasty | Lions quarterback Jared Goff completed 18-of-18 passes for 292 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a win over Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: He also caught a touchdown pass from Amon-Ra St. Brown. His effort featured the most completions in a game without an incompletion in NFL history. Goff was masterful on the evening and has complete control of this Lions offense here in his fourth season. A relative "throw-in" years ago in the Matthew Stafford trade, Goff continues to impress. He'll remain being a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 as we move forward.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Oct 1 10:13am CT
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Dynasty | Jaxon Smith-Njigba had eight catches for 51 yards in a loss to the Lions on Monday night. Dynasty Analysis: JSN now has 25 catches in four games in what amounts to be his breakout season thus far. While he is still looking for his first touchdown, his floor is starting to look pretty safe on a weekly basis. While best served as a secondary option as long as DK Metcalf is around, his dynasty value seems to be on the rise again.

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Zach Charbonnet Oct 1 10:13am CT
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Dynasty | Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker had 80 rushing yards, four catches, 36 receiving yards and three touchdowns in a loss on Monday night to Detroit. Dynasty Analysis: Walker returned from a short-term injury with a fury as he did all his rushing damage on just 12 carries. Even better, Zach Charbonnet had only two carries, looking like a backup and not a "1B" yet again. Walker looks locked in as a RB1 moving forward and his dynasty value is going to continue ticking up.

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Mason Rudolph Oct 1 10:13am CT
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Dynasty | Titans quarterback Will Levis injured his shoulder and was replaced by Mason Rudolph in a win against Miami on Monday night. Dynasty Analysis: Levis completed the game going 3-for-4 for 25 yards with one interception on the night. After spending the rest of the game roaming the sidelines and not getting medical attention, it's fair to wonder just how "injured" he was. Tennessee is saying he's the starter moving forward, but his play has been less than inspiring this season. In fact, Levis now has 12 touchdowns and ten interceptions over his 13 games in the NFL, with four of those scores coming in his first ever start. The ice is getting thin in Tennessee.

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Tyler Huntley Oct 1 10:13am CT
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Jaylen Wright Oct 1 9:50am CT
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Will Levis Oct 1 9:40am CT
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Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo recorded one catch for five yards in the team's win over the Dolphins on Monday night. With quarterback Will Levis (shoulder) exiting early, Okonkwo was not a factor, seeing just three targets in the game as the Titans relied heavily on the running game. The three targets were actually a season-high for the tight end, who has not become a big part of the Titans' offense yet. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for options at the position, and Okonkwo can be left on the waiver wire.

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Jaylen Waddle Oct 1 9:40am CT
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Jared Goff Oct 1 9:30am CT
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The Seattle Seahawks defense/special teams had a tough outing in Week 4. After being one of the top units through the first three weeks of the season, the Seahawks allowed 389 yards and 42 points in Week 4. They also allowed Lions quarterback Jared Goff to go 18/18 through the air. The jury is still out on how good this defense actually is. This game turned out to be a track meet and resulted in 71 total points between the two teams. The Seahawks D/ST did manage to record three sacks against a talented Lions O-line. That is encouraging going forward. The Seahawks have now recorded 14 sacks on the season.

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Tyreek Hill Oct 1 9:30am CT
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Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught 4-of-7 targets for 23 yards in the team's 31-12 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. He added 19 yards on three carries. Hill's receiving yardage is a new season-low, while the four catches he racked up were the most since he had seven way back in Week 1. The Dolphins offense as a whole has been largely disappointing since losing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) in the team's loss to the Bills in Week 2, and the veteran wideout now has three consecutive single-digit fantasy point outings. On a positive note, Hill still garners a 23.1% target share on the team, but his managers are in a tough spot, considering that a top-three pick was used on him in this summer's drafts. Miami's next time out will be a juicier matchup when they hit the road to square off against the New England Patriots. However, expectations of the 30-year-old's output must be tempered as this offense doesn't move the same without their field-general. Hill will again be a low-end WR2 for the matchup.

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Devon Achane Oct 1 9:10am CT
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Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane rushed ten times for 15 yards and brought in all three of his targets for an additional 14 yards in Monday night's 31-12 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Woof. The carries, targets, receptions, and yards were all season-low marks for Achane. He was out-gained on the ground by quarterback Tyler Huntley (40), wide receiver Tyreek Hill (19), and backfield mate Jaylen Wright (32), who all racked up fewer carries than the second-year RB. While Wright was more efficient with his work, he didn't receive his first touch until halfway through the second quarter. It's an outing to forget for the former Aggie, but fantasy managers have to be disappointed, as it's the second contest in a row in which he's failed to score more than single-digit fantasy points. The former third-round pick will have a better matchup his next time out when the team takes on the New England Patriots in Week 5. However, it's hard to trust him as anything more than an RB3 for the time being, with Miami's offense in a tailspin.

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Zach Charbonnet Oct 1 9:10am CT
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Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet was limited to two carries for 15 yards but did record five catches for 39 yards in a loss to the Lions in Week 4. With Kenneth Walker III returning to action, Charbonnet was not involved in the run game as Walker saw a team-high 12 carries. The UCLA product salvaged his night with his pass-game work and he could keep that going moving forward. However, with Walker back in the mix as the lead back, Charbonnet's value and upside are limited. He had some good games with Walker out, but it appears that Charbonnet will take a bit of a back seat in the running-back pecking order.

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Nick Chubb Oct 1 9:00am CT
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Tyler Huntley Oct 1 8:50am CT
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Tua Tagovailoa Oct 1 8:30am CT
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Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is reportedly "symptom-free" and is on track to return to the field as soon as Week 8 according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Tagovailoa is eligible to return from the IR in Week 8 and could be back on the field by then after suffering a concussion in the team's Week 2 loss to the Bills. With a history of concussions, Tagovailoa's return to the field was not a given but it looks like he is eyeing a comeback from his latest scary head injury. The Dolphins are now 1-3 and the offense is struggling mightily without Tagovailoa on the field.

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Jameson Williams Oct 1 8:00am CT
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Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams caught a 70-yard touchdown pass from Jared Goff on Monday night against Seattle and led the team in receiving with two catches for 80 yards. Williams saw just two targets in the game but showed his big-play ability by turning in the 70-yard TD. The Alabama product can turn a few touches into a big fantasy day because of that big-play threat. It makes him a little bit risky week-to-week but he has mostly rewarded fantasy managers this season. Williams will have to fight for targets with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the Lions' offense but his explosiveness on the outside makes him fantasy viable.

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David Montgomery Oct 1 7:50am CT
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Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery scored a rushing touchdown in Week 4 against Seattle, carrying 12 times for 40 yards and a 1-yard score while adding one catch for 40 yards on Monday night. The Lions' power back showed off his strength by shaking off a tackle in the backfield on his touchdown run but was not overly efficient at 3.3 yards per carry in this game. Jahmyr Gibbs was the featured runner against Seattle with 14 carries for 78 yards and two TDs. Montgomery continues to be heavily involved in tandem with Gibbs and there has been plenty of fantasy production to go around for the talented duo. Montgomery has also shown he can be productive catching passes out of the backfield which only adds to his fantasy value. He should be a fantasy RB1 moving forward.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown Oct 1 7:50am CT
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Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown caught six passes for 45 yards and a touchdown and also threw a touchdown pass to Jared Goff on Monday night against Seattle. St. Brown caught all six of his targets but didn't see a massive workload as the Lions' had their ground game going as well in the game. Against a good Seahawks' secondary, St. Brown worked mostly the short field with his long completion in the game being 17 yards. He was able to execute a 7-yard trick play in which he found Goff for a passing touchdown as well which helped his fantasy night. The former USC star should continue to emerge in this offense as the season progresses but there is a lot of competition for looks with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield and Jameson Williams coming on at wide receiver.

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Kenneth Walker III Oct 1 7:40am CT
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Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III had a massive Week 4 upon his return from an oblique injury. Walker rushed for 80 yards and three touchdowns on 12 carries. The starting role was firmly in Walker's hands as he out-touched running back Zach Charbonnet 16 to seven. Walker looked awesome evading Lions defenders and ripping off chunk plays. He accounted for three of the Seahawks' four touchdowns and kept them in the game until the end. When Walker has played this season, he has looked the best that he has looked possibly in his entire career. He remains firmly in the RB1 conversation when the Seahawks take on the New York Giants in Week 5.

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D.K. Metcalf Oct 1 7:40am CT
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Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf finished Monday night's game with seven receptions for 104 yards. He did lose a fumble in the first half that proved to be costly as the Seahawks were never able to close the one-touchdown gap with the Lions. Metcalf has now gone over 100 yards in three straight games. This offense looks really good in 2024 and should only continue to improve as the players and coaching staff get more comfortable. Unlike in previous seasons, this Seahawks regime has made it a point to force-feed Metcalf the ball. He is currently on pace for 153 targets which would shatter his previous career high. Look for Metcalf to continue his excellent run when the Seahawks play the New York Giants in Week 5.

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