Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
The Invitational Live Stream
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Monday that the team's starters will play in Friday's preseason finale against the hosting Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. "You'd love to get maybe two quarters out of them," Pederson said. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence did not appear in Saturday's preseason win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and while Pederson seems to have an eye on extended reps for his star and veteran players on Friday against Atlanta, fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if the starters end up coming out of the game after a quarter of action. With Christian Kirk (calf) out of action for this week, fantasy managers will be looking out for Lawrence, star running back Travis Etienne, rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and veteran tight end Evan Engram in the final exhibition outing.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said on Monday that he expected running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) to practice. Reid added that the club is trying to get him headed in the right direction and says he hasn't discussed with general manager Brett Veach whether he's a candidate for injured reserve to start the season. Edwards-Helaire didn't suit up in Saturday's preseason game against the Detroit Lions, and he must be dealing with a pretty significant illness if a possible stint on the IR is even a consideration at this point. The former first-round pick lines up as one of the change-of-pace backs behind workhorse starter Isiah Pacheco in KC's backfield this season, but Deneric Prince would become the preferred handcuff to roster if CEH's absence were to extend into the regular season.
From RotoBaller
NFL.com's Lance Zierlein believes running back Dameon Pierce may struggle to make the team with several RBs on the roster having better one-cut feels. Pierce has struggled for the Texans during the preseason, allowing the door to open for Cam Akers, Jawhar Jordan, and Dare Ogunbowale to potentially end up with roster spots in Houston's backfield instead of him behind workhorse starter Joe Mixon. The 24-year-old former fourth-round pick was one of fantasy's breakout stars in 2022, rushing 220 times for 939 yards while totaling five touchdowns in 13 games, but he ceded lead-back duties to veteran Devin Singletary during the second half of last year. Teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, and Cincinnati Bengals could give Pierce a look if we were cut, but his fantasy appeal is limited at the moment.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Sunday night that he's "hoping" that rookie running back Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) will return to training camp practice this week and get some snaps in Friday's preseason finale against the Las Vegas Raiders on the road. Guerendo could easily be looking at a redshirt rookie season in the NFL after initially injuring his hamstring at the start of training camp on July 24. The 24-year-old fourth-rounder has missed three-plus weeks of valuable reps in camp, including both of the team's preseason games to this point. Saying San Fran's backfield has been beat up this summer would be an understatement, as Christian McCaffrey (calf), Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) and Jordan Mason (hip) also have injury designations. When healthy, the speedy Guerendo figures to be the Niners' RB3, but he's behind the eight ball developmentally already and can be avoided in standard 12-team fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks (knee) worked with the rehab group off to the side during training camp practice on Monday. Cooks has been held out of practice and the team's second preseason game on Saturday since injuring his knee at practice last Thursday, but the 30-year-old veteran's injury isn't believed to be too serious. However, with CeeDee Lamb, the team's No. 1 wideout, still holding out due to a contract dispute, quarterback Dak Prescott's top receiving targets in practice are now Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin, Jalen Cropper and Jalen Brooks. Before Cooks' knee injury, he was developing great chemistry with Prescott, and he could bounce back in 2024 with Michael Gallup no longer around after putting up a 54-657-8 line in 16 regular-season games last year. Cooks probably isn't a 1,000-yard receiver anymore, but he could have some use as a WR4/flex in the right matchups for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Sunday night that he's "hoping" that rookie first-round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (shoulder) will return to training camp practice this week and also get some reps in Friday's preseason finale against the Las Vegas Raiders. Pearsall was surprisingly taken by the Niners at the end of the first round of April's NFL draft, but he began training camp on the Non-Football Injury list with a hamstring issue and has been missing valuable reps of late with a nagging shoulder ailment. The good news is the 23-year-old could get back on the field this week. Pearsall will probably only be worth a draft selection in redraft leagues if the Niners trade Brandon Aiyuk before the start of the regular season, but that is looking increasingly unlikely. If Aiyuk sticks around in 2024, Pearsall will be battling Jauan Jennings for targets as the team's WR3 in his rookie campaign.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (foot) practiced at training camp on Monday for the first time since July, when he was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis. Herbert was placed in a walking boot at the end of July but ditched the boot last Thursday. He was seen making stationary throws before Saturday's preseason contest against the Los Angeles Rams and has now taken the next step in returning to practice. The 26-year-old will now have two weeks worth of practices before the Week 1 regular-season opener on Sept. 8 against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Pain tolerance will probably be an issue for Herbert along the way and even potentially into the regular season, but the Chargers have never seemed to worried about him missing time to begin the year. In more of a run-first offense under the new coaching staff and no longer without his top weapons in Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams, Herbert's fantasy stock has fallen to QB2 status.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants restructured the contract of left tackle Andrew Thomas to create $3.34 million in salary cap space on Monday. The move gives the Giants $18 million to work with as teams prepare to make their final signings heading into the season. The Giants have plenty of holes to plug along the offensive line and could use a more established No. 2 wide receiver opposite rookie Malik Nabers. It will be difficult for the Giants to put a lot of that cap space to good use this late in the preseason with so many quality players signed already. However, with final roster cuts around the corner, cap casualties of other teams could be prime selections for the Giants.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers were reportedly a call away from landing wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers. However, new details about the situation have shed light on the hold-up of the talks. The Steelers offered Aiyuk less than $28 million annually for a new contract. The offer has pushed Aiyuk back to the contract negotiation table with the 49ers. It appears that Aiyuk may not be able to get the top-of-market contract he seeks after all. Aiyuk is coming off a career year in which he caught 75 passes for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns. He is due for a new contract as he enters the fifth year of his rookie deal. Aiyuk has not participated in training camp or the preseason while he seeks a new contract. For now, fantasy managers will need to monitor whether the Steelers will increase their offer or if Aiyuk will come to terms with the 49ers.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Broncos quarterback Bo Nix compoleted 8-of-9 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown in Denver's preseason game against the Packers. Dynasty Analysis: Simply put, Nix has done nothing to make Sean Payton think of starting anyone else week one. This was the latest positive sign as he looked poised in the pocket and again took care of the football. Nix looks like a player with five years of college experience and ready to take on his new challenge. At this point, he's looked competent enough to keep the fantasy values of Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, and others afloat, though there will clearly be some bumps in the road. He remains a second round rookie pick in conventional drafts and creeping higher in 2QB leagues as we await official confirmation of him starting.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders have named Jayden Daniels their starting quarterback. Dynasty Analysis: No real surprise here as Daniels really wasn't challenged much by now journeyman Marcus Mariota in camp. He's been impressive in limited action and in training camp, so Washington clearly sees no reason to keep him on the bench. Daniels remains a top-2 pick in Superflex formats but also remains one of the bigger boom or bust players at the position we've seen in some time.
Dynasty | The Falcons are sitting quarterback Michael Penix Jr for the final preseason game. Dynasty Analysis: This seems unusual considering Kirk Cousins is the clear starter. However, the Falcons brass is simply saying they've seen enough of Penix to know what they have and don't want to risk injury. While camp reports have been glowing, we still haven't seen enough of him to really determine how good he may be and likely won't barring a catastrophe regarding Cousins. Penix remains a high upside player who dynasty managers will need to be very patient with.
Miami Dolphins WR Odell Beckham Jr. (undisclosed) is not expected to practice this week, according to head coach Mike McDaniel.
From TheHuddle
The Buffalo Bills announced that quarterback Josh Allen, along with the team's other starters, will not play in Saturday's preseason finale against the Carolina Panthers. Head coach Sean McDermott originally planned to play his starters, but after the team saw multiple players suffer injuries over the weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers, they are not taking any chances. Backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (knee), wide receivers Curtis Samuel (toe) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (neck), and tight end Quintin Morris (shoulder) are all expected to miss multiple weeks.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars QB C.J. Beathard (groin) will not play in the final preseason game because of a groin injury, according to head coach Doug Pederson.
From TheHuddle
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford (hamstring) was limited to individual drills during practice Monday, Aug. 19.
Fantasy Spin: Stafford likely will be eased back into practice so the team can make sure he is ready for Week 1. He has one of the better receiver duos to work with in the NFL but may only be a No. 2 quarterback in most leagues.
From TheHuddle
Buffalo Bills WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (neck) and TE Quintin Morris (shoulder) are expected to miss several weeks because of injuries.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (undisclosed) did not practice on Monday, but head coach John Harbaugh said, "Don't worry about Mark; he's going to be fine." The 28-year-old was involved in a car crash last week, but he reportedly did not suffer any injuries. It's unclear why Andrews is currently out of action, but it doesn't sound as if he's at risk of missing any meaningful time. Andrews missed seven games last season after suffering a cracked fibula and an ankle ligament injury, but he returned for the AFC Championship Game against the Kansas City Chiefs. He should be ready to go when the season begins, and even though rising wideout Zay Flowers presents solid target competition, Andrews could still be Lamar Jackson's top target in the passing game. He's priced around the TE5 spot in preseason drafts and has overall TE1 upside.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins released running back Salvon Ahmed on Monday, according to NFL insider Ari Meirov. Ahmed went undrafted out of Washington in 2020 and spent four years with Miami following a brief stint with the San Francisco 49ers. In 38 career games, he rushed 163 times for 593 yards and five touchdowns to go along with 40 receptions for 274 yards and one score. With the Dolphins adding rookie Jaylen Wright to an already-crowded running back room featuring Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, the writing was on the wall for the end of Ahmed's tenure in Miami. Given the injury rate at the running back position, it wouldn't be surprising if he's on an active roster for another team before the 2024 NFL season wraps up.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent RB Anthony McFarland (Steelers), FB Zander Horvath (Saints), WR Jadon Janke (Texans) and LB Dequan Jackson (Jaguars) signed with the Miami Dolphins Monday, Aug. 19. Terms of the contracts were not disclosed. The team also released RB Salvon Ahmed, waived/injured LB Zeke Vandenburgh (undisclosed) and placed WR Willie Snead (undisclosed) and OG Sean Harlow (undisclosed) on the Reserve/Injured list.
From TheHuddle