RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis is expected to start during the team's final preseason game next weekend. Levis and a majority of the starters sat out of their second preseason game after getting in a few reps during the preseason opener. It sounds like the plan is for Levis to play around three or four series during their matchup against the New Orleans Saints next weekend. The 25-year-old is looking to build off his rookie season where he threw for 1,808 passing yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions in nine starts with Tennessee. The Titans have given Levis the chance to be the full-time starter and show what he can do. The organization has made upgrades on offense, but Levis still remains a shaky weekly fantasy option in 12-team redrafts.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (hamstring) is uncertain to suit up for Monday's practice session, according to head coach Sean McVay. Stafford has been sidelined since leaving early during Wednesday's practice due to hamstring tightness. The Rams are downplaying the severity of the issue but will likely re-evaluate his status on Monday. The 36-year-old is fully expected to be ready to play in the season opener. In the meantime, Stetson Bennett and Dresser Winn will continue getting increased reps under center.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver James Washington has been released by the organization on Sunday. It looks like Washington was the odd man out as the Falcons needed to cut someone to add safety Justin Simmons to the roster. At this point, Washington is nothing more than depth on any NFL roster. His best season came in 2019 with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Washington recorded 44 receptions, 735 receiving yards and three touchdowns during that season. Since then, Washington has regressed appears to be nothing more than a back-end depth option. He could land elsewhere before the season begins, but Washington is unlikely to make a big impact anywhere.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Raiders have named Gardner Minshew their starting quarterback. Dynasty Analysis: Minshew beats out Aidan O'Connell for the job, though neither was overly impressive this off-season. Minshew was fine in Indianapolis last season, throwing for 3,305 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He slots in as an uninspiring game manager who should help keep the offense afloat but far from elite. His grip on the job won't be too strong but this is a major blow to the draft stock of O'Connell.
Dynasty | Falcons running back Jase McClellan ran for 55 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries in Atlanta's preseason loss to Baltimore. Dynasty Analysis: It was a solid performance for McClellan, who is attempting to make the team behind Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. While he likely won't have much of a role behind those two and has done little to push Allgeier for the backup job, McClellan's name remains one to keep on watch lists.
Dynasty | Bears receiver Dante Pettis had three catches for 53 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears preseason win against the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Pettis is attempting to lock down the fourth receiver job behind DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze and this likely helped. He's bounced around the league for a few years but has typically produced when called upon. He's another name to keep filed away should he win the job and see the Bears incur an injury or two at the receiver position.
Dynasty | Bears receiver Rome Odunze had one catch for 45 yards and one carry for 16 yards in the Bears preseason win against the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Odunze nearly had a highlight reel touchdown catch but his foot touched out of bounds. Odunze has clearly looked NFL ready all off-season and could push Keenan Allen to be the second receiver for the Bears this season. While dynasty managers may need to be a little patient with him, it certainly seems as if this top-3 rookie pick has a long and productive career ahead of him.
Dynasty | Giants quarterback Daniel Jones completed 11-of-18 passes for 138 yards with two interceptions in the Giants preseason loss to Houston. Dynasty Analysis: Ouch. Jones was seeing his first action since tearing his ACL last season and this wasn't pretty as one of the interceptions resulted in a pick-six. Jones was fortunate to see the Giants pass on quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft but he's going to need to play much better quickly to retain his job beyond the first part of this season and certainly for anything beyond that.
Dynasty | Texans wide receiver John Metchie had six catches for 68 yards and a touchdown in Houston's preseason win against the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: The preseason reports on Metchie have been all positive and this just solidifies those. Unfortunately, he's buried on a depth chart behind Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell at the moment. However, Diggs is on what amounts to a one-year deal and Metchie could be waiting in the wings for a bigger role in the future. He's a player to certainly keep your eye on in dynasty leagues and a possible back-of-the-roster stash at the moment.
Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had four catches for 54 yards in the Giants preseason loss to Houston. Dynasty Analysis: The Giants offense looks anemic but you can hardly blame Nabers, who looks like he can get open against just about anyone. Daniel Jones needs to improve quickly for Nabers to unlock his full potential but everything we've seen thus far merits him being a top two rookie draft pick. In short, Nabers looks the part of a future dynasty WR1.
Dynasty | Chiefs rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy caught three passes for 62 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City's preseason loss to Detroit. Dynasty Analysis: Check, please. Worthy has done nothing but impress since joining the Chiefs and it's clear he's going to have an early role with Kansas City this season. With unparalleled speed to burn, Worthy is looking like a very solid first round rookie pick at the moment. While expectations need to be tempered a little, he sure looks like a lot of fun.
Dynasty | Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson completed 8-of-10 passes for just 47 yards in Pittsburgh's 9-3 preseason loss to Buffalo. Dynasty Analysis: This was Wilson's first preseason action and it wasn't pretty. At this point, it honestly seems as if Wilson has lost the mojo he once had in Seattle and has turned into more of a game manager than a playmaker. While Justin Fields hasn't done much to unseat him, Fields does at least add a different dynamic with his rushing ability. It seems this quarterback battle is far from settled and we're going to need to see more before truly evaluating the fantasy potential of this offense. Wilson remains a flimsy QB2 at the moment.
Dynasty | Cardinals rookie Trey Benson ran for 43 yards on nine carries in the Cardinals preseason loss to the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: it's been a relatively quiet preseason for Benson, though he looked a bit better in this one. Still, he's done little to unseat James Conner and is looking like a clear handcuff and backup at the moment. A solid second round rookie pick, Benson is going to need an injury or some ineffectiveness from Conner to carve out a meaningful role early it seems.
Dynasty | Panthers rookie running back Dillon Johnson had 83 yards and a touchdown in the Panthers preseason loss to the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: You have to take this with a grain of salt as the Jets sat out 32 (!) players in this one. Still, Johnson churned out some tough yards and is making a case to make the team behind Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, Jonathan Brooks and Raheem Blackshear. He's another player to simply keep on preseason dynasty watch lists at the moment.
Dynasty | Rams rookie receiver Jordan Whittington had five catches for 52 yards in the Rams preseason win against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Texas does nothing but produce wide receivers it seems. Whittington has done nothing but impress thus far in camp and at this point, it would be a shock to see him not make the final roster. While he's stuck behind Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and possibly some others, he's looking roster worthy in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Cowboys quarterback Trey Lance completed 15-of-23 passes for 151 and a touchdown, while adding 34 rushing yards and another score in the Cowboys preseason win against the Raiders. Dynasty Analysis: Lance has been working to unseat Cooper Rush for the backup job behind Dak Prescott and this won't hurt. It's really the first positive sign we've seen from Lance in some time and it could even make a quarterback-needy team knock on Dallas' door to see if a trade is possible next week. Lance remains a possibility for a back-end roster spot in deep dynasty leagues, despite his early career struggles.
Dynasty | Gardner Minshew has been named the starter for the Las Vegas Raiders, pushing Aidan O'Connell to the bench. Dynasty Analysis: Yikes. It seems O'Connell just didn't show enough improvement this off-season for the Raiders to truly trust him with the job. Instead, they're going with a more conservative Gardner Minshew and likely playing some run-first football moving forward. This is a massive blow to the stock of O'Connell, who the Raiders could be quick to turn to, but will be holding a clipboard for the foreseeable future. He's a tough hold on dynasty rosters after this turn of events.
Dynasty | The Falcons have released wide receiver James Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Washington was hoping to make a comeback with the Falcons but he was apparently unable to make a strong enough impression in camp to stick around. He'll look to latch on somewhere else but it's late in the game for a veteran to make a team. His career prospects seem to be on fumes at the moment and he's not someone to consider on a dynasty roster at the moment.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, there hasn't been much talk between Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and the team regarding a new contract. Chase, who has a base salary of $1.1 million for the 2024-25 campaign and a $21.8 million team option for 2025-26, has been with the Bengals at training camp. However, he hasn't been participating. Without question, Chase is a top wideout in the National Football League, recently finishing the 2023-24 season by catching a career-high 100 passes for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns. Yet, with other top wideouts getting big money, Chase wants to be paid sooner rather than later. There haven't been any updates on whether the contract situation will keep him off the field. But Chase's fantasy value will dip if he doesn't start practicing soon.
From RotoBaller
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson has the "edge" to win the No. 1 spot on the depth chart for Week 1. While Fowler added Justin Fields has at least done enough to make things "interesting," head coach Mike Tomlin appreciates Wilson's "command of the offense." The 35-year-old is coming off two miserable seasons in Denver. He also battled a calf injury during training camp. With that said, Tomlin will likely wait a bit longer before announcing the team's starting signal-caller. Although Wilson may have always been the favorite to start in Week 1, Fields could enter the equation if things don't go as planned for the veteran.
From RotoBaller
