RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 5
Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave (ankle) did not participate in Wednesday's team practice. The second-year tight end recorded two limited sessions last week while tending to a quad issue ahead of the Packers' 31-29 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. He would ultimately suit up for the contest -- playing 33% of snaps -- but the ankle injury is new. The fact that he was not designated as even a limited participant does not bode well for his status, but his value was trending in the wrong direction anyway, with teammate Tucker Kraft dominating the team's TE snaps 227-to-108. The former second-round pick will have two more opportunities to upgrade his participation before the team's final injury report is revealed. Green Bay has a tantalizing matchup this Sunday when they hit the road to take on a Los Angeles Rams team, allowing the second most points per game. Still, Musgrave can be avoided for fantasy purposes, even if he plays.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet (knee) was listed as a limited participant on the team's first injury report of the week. The fifth-year tight end was the team's second-leading receiver (34 yards) in their 24-18 win over the Los Angeles Rams, participating in 90% of the snaps. He apparently picked up an injury sometime between now and then, though when and how severe it might be are currently unknown. It's a good sign for Kmet that he could at least get in a limited practice. The former second-round pick saw his usage spike in Week 3, with the team sans wide receiver Keenan Allen and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams attempting 52 passes. However, that came cratering back down upon the veteran wideout's return and a run-heavy game plan. He and the Bears will get a favorable matchup this Sunday at home against the Carolina Panthers. Despite this, Kmet will be an unrecommended volatile option.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo had his best game of the season in Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints. Koo nailed field goals from 53, 44, 42, and 58 yards. He's one of the best kickers in the league and has been perfect during the season so far. He is now impressively 5-for-5 on field goals of 40+ yards. The 30-year-old will look to continue his hot streak against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday. He is capable of nailing kicks in the clutch, and given the nature of the Falcons offense, it's likely they may need his help again. It's tough to say how many opportunities he'll be afforded, as kicker production is one of the hardest things to predict in the NFL, but he can be trusted to consistently hit from long distances. Koo is a must-start in fantasy leagues with kickers. He has a history of success, and the offense has given him enough kicks to succeed in fantasy. He should be locked into lineups when the Falcons take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Thursday Night Football.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier showed he deserves a more significant proportion of the Falcons' backfield opportunities when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5. His performance in Week 4 was his best of the season. He turned just eight carries into 60 yards (7.5 yards per carry) and caught two passes for 20 yards, good for 10.0 PPR fantasy points. The backup running back is highly efficient, averaging 6.15 yards per carry, and had proven his ability to be a solid lead back through the last four games of 2022 before lead back Bijan Robinson (hamstring) was drafted. The Bucs have struggled to stop the run this year, too. Robinson has struggled so far, and Allgeier's runs have been much more successful on average. He shouldn't be started yet, but he is a must-have handcuff for Bijan managers and a fine speculative bench stash. Should Tyler's role continue to grow, he could be start-worthy at some point.
From RotoBaller
Reporters again questioned New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh on Wednesday about the team's running back usage, but he might have hinted that not much will change moving forward. Specifically, Saleh was asked about rookie running back Braelon Allen and whether or not he'd be further integrated into New York's scheme. "He's already been integrated," said Saleh, "I feel like he gets a lot of run every week." The comments come a few days after the Jets head coach was suggested to use Allen more extensively in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He also remarked on how he believed Breece Hall's subpar performance against the Denver Broncos in Week 4 to be an "outlier" and credited the Broncos' defense for holding up. "Breece was batting 1.000 in goal-line situations this year. He's been doing great in short-yardage situations also." It would appear that fantasy managers can breathe a sigh of relief as the 20-year-old should not further eat into Hall's workload. Still, they must be disappointed at the division of touches thus far. He and the Jets will have another tough matchup this week when they take on the Minnesota Vikings in London.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals kicker Matt Prater (knee) was listed as a non-participant for the team's first practice of the week on Wednesday. Evidently the 40-year-old veteran came out of Sunday's 42-14 loss to the Washington Commanders a bit dinged up. Interestingly enough, Arizona held tryouts last Friday for kickers Anders Carlson and Chad Ryland, while Prater did not garner a designation. The Cardinals signed Ryland to their practice squad on Wednesday. Prater will need to get in at least one limited session over the next few days to boost his chances of suiting up in Week 5. However, if he can't, it would seem that Ryland would appear in his stead. The journeyman kicker has yet to miss a field goal or extra point attempt this season. Arizona will hit the road to take on their division-rival San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams (hamstring) is not expected to play in the Week 5 game because of his hamstring injury, according to sources.
Fantasy Spin: Adams is dealing with the injury and could be on the trade block as well, so he may be in a new uniform when he is cleared to play again. Fantasy players will need a backup plan ready while Adams is sidelined.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicker Chase McLaughlin has been impressive early in the season. He connected on both his field goals last week and converted 3-of-4 extra point attempts during last week's win over the Philadelphia Eagles. McLaughlin has yet to miss a field goal attempt this season and has been one of the more effective kicker so far. The hope is that his leg continues to be strong for Thursday's Week 5 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs offense has been able to produce 20 points or more in three of the first four games of the season. McLaughlin should continue getting chances and should be on the streaming radar for Week 5.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams WR Demarcus Robinson (hip) was limited during practice Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Fantasy Spin: Robinson has only caught five passes over the last three games and is has posted at least 50 yards in only one of the four games this season. He probably will see a few targets if active this week but can be avoided in fantasy leagues.
From TheHuddle
Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp (ankle) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2. DE Larrell Murchison (forearm) and CB Darious Williams (hamstring) were limited during practice.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard has been signed to the active roster ahead of the Thursday night matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The veteran wideout was elevated last week with the Bucs being shorthanded at wideout. He hauled in three receptions for 51 yards in the win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Shepard could once again be asked to play a bigger role with Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Trey Palmer (concussion) ruled out for Week 5. It's worth noting that both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are ahead of Shepard on the pecking order. That being said, Shepard could still end up with a quiet night despite being the third wideout on the roster. He's worth a look as a low-end flex option for fantasy managers in deep leagues for Week 5.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers CB Jaire Alexander (groin), DT Kenny Clark (toe), OG Elgton Jenkins (knee), TE Luke Musgrave (ankle) and DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2. CB Carrington Valentine (ankle), OT Jordan Morgan (shoulder) and LB Edgerrin Cooper (hip) were limited during practice.
From TheHuddle
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle (ribs) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Fantasy Spin: Kittle probably will be able to practice later in the week and should be available for the Week 5 game. He can be a starting option in all fantasy leagues if active.
From TheHuddle
San Francisco 49ers WR Chris Conley (oblique), WR Jacob Cowing (shoulder), DE Yetur Gross-Matos (knee), LB Fred Warner (ankle) and LB Dee Winters (ankle) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2. DT Jordan Elliott (knee), LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (calf), DT Kevin Givens (triceps), S Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) and OT Trent Williams (non-injury) were limited during practice. DT Kalia Davis (knee) and FB Kyle Juszczyk (shoulder) fully participated in practice.
From TheHuddle
Miami Dolphins linebacker Jaelan Phillips (knee) said that his 2024 season is over. Phillips will require reconstructive knee surgery and will not be able to rejoin the team for the rest of the year. It's a major blow for the Dolphins defense the rest of the way. The 25-year-old Phillips also suffered a season-ending Achilles injury halfway through the 2023 season. The 18th overall pick in 2021 out of Miami, Phillips picked up six tackles (two solo), a sack, one tackle for loss and two QB hits while defending two passes in four games this year before his knee injury. Fantasy managers in single-year IDP formats can obviously drop Phillips now. The Dolphins will be asking a lot more out of Emmanuel Ogbah at the linebacker position with Phillips out for the rest of the season. The Dolphins defense/special teams unit is in play as a streaming option for the second week against a punchless Patriots offense in Week 5.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin has been off to an extremely hot start to begin the season. Godwin has six receptions or more in every game with over 53 yards or more in each of those contests. The veteran wideout has also scored three touchdowns as the move back to the slot has done great things for his career. The biggest problem for Godwin's value is that he continues to battle with fellow wideout Mike Evans for targets. Luckily, the Bucs have gone pass-heavy early on which has given both receivers solid value most weeks. Godwin should once again be in the WR1 conversation for the upcoming matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (knee), who is officially listed on the Week 5 injury report with a knee injury, practiced in full on Wednesday. Fellow wideouts Braxton Berrios (ankle) and Malik Washington (quadriceps) were listed as limited. Beckham's knee injury caused him to be placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list to begin the 2024 season, but his 21-day practice window has now been opened and he could be activated and make his Dolphins debut as early as this Sunday versus the division-rival New England Patriots. Fantasy managers in most leagues can leave the 31-year-old veteran on the waiver wire given the fact that Miami's offense has taken a nosedive with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) on Injured Reserve. When he's ready, OBJ will be battling for playing time in a reserve role behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The three-time Pro Bowler (2014-16) had 35 catches for 565 yards and three TDs in 14 games for Baltimore in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams (hamstring) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Fantasy Spin: Adams is dealing with and injury and may also be the subject of trade talks, so his availability for Week 5 is uncertain at this point. Fantasy players should keep an eye on the situation because Adams is a starting fantasy option when healthy.
From TheHuddle
Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler (concussion) was able to practice on a limited basis on Wednesday. Ekeler suffered a concussion in the Week 3 win over the Cincinnati Bengals and wasn't cleared to play in the Week 4 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Head coach Dan Quinn said that Ekeler's status is trending up heading into their Week 5 game against the Cleveland Browns, although Ekeler still has steps to clear in the league's concussion protocol and must be cleared by an independent neurologist later this week. The 29-year-old's improving status and the fact that Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) was a DNP on Wednesday makes Washington's backfield one to watch heading into the weekend. Even if B-Rob is able to play, Ekeler will have RB3/flex appeal in PPR leagues if he's cleared to return. Ekeler has a rushing touchdown and nine receptions for 121 yards through his first three games in D.C.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving has continued to work his way into a larger role on this offense. Last week, Irving saw a career-high 10 carries for 49 yards and scored his first rushing touchdown of his career. Irving has seen 12 touches or more in three of the first four games this season. Lead back Rachaad White has struggled and Irving has played so well that it has turned into more of a committee approach. Honestly, Irving seems more like the lead back as his big-play ability is hard to ignore. He'll head into a tough matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night. A defense that has done a nice job at holding running backs in check. Irving should continue seeing an increased workload which should only increase his fantasy value. He's worth rostering in most fantasy formats and has flex appeal in certain formats for Week 5.
From RotoBaller
