RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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- Colts G Will Fries carted off with right lower leg injury
- Bengals lose CB Dax Hill to knee injury vs. Ravens
- Dolphins RB De'Von Achane injured, ruled out vs. Patriots
- Colts QB Anthony Richardson inactive vs. Jaguars
- Vikings RB Aaron Jones (hip) out for rest of game vs. Jets
- Broncos place RB Tyler Badie (back) on injured reserve
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- Five Saints players ruled out for MNF game vs. Chiefs
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 5
- Bender's Favorite NFL DFS Pickem Picks: Week 5
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Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper caught four of his 10 targets for 60 yards in a 34-13 loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 5. Cooper turned in a solid afternoon, although it comes as a bit of a disappointment as he failed to capitalize on an excellent matchup against a leaky Washington secondary. That being said, the veteran at least bounced back after going for just 35 receiving yards in Week 4 against the Las Vegas Raiders. Cooper has struggled with drops this season, which, coupled with a struggling Cleveland offense, has made him a risky weekly play in fantasy leagues. He will likely settle in as a low-end WR3 in Week 6's road matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
According to Fox Sports' Jay Glazer, the Packers hope to "salvage" their relationship with wide receiver Romeo Doubs. The wideout skipped a few practices throughout the week and was suspended for the Week 5 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams. However, the Packers plan to meet with Doubs in the coming days, hoping to resolve the issue between both sides. With that in mind, the Packers are expected to lean heavily on Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks versus Los Angeles, and that could be the case moving ahead if Doubs doesn't return and Christian Watson (ankle) remains on the shelf.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry salvaged his fantasy outing against the Cincinnati Bengals with a clutch 51-yard run in overtime which set up their game-winning field goal. The King posted 92 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries while adding one reception for four yards. For most of this game, he couldn't find much running room as he averaged around three yards per carry at one point. The 51-yard run in overtime put him back into the RB1 conversation while allowing the Ravens to grab their third win of the season. He'll look to continue his scoring streak against the Washington Commanders in Week 6.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) didn't return to Sunday's matchup with the Buffalo Bills. He's been one of the NFL's top wideouts this season. Unfortunately, there's concern about his health moving ahead after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 5. According to KPRC's Aaron Wilson, the Texans are "optimistic" that the injury is "short-term," so it appears fantasy managers could see him back for the Week 6 matchup with the New England Patriots. Collins will likely undergo more tests in the next day or two and may also miss some practices. If he's ruled out, it will likely mean more targets for Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers kicker Jake Moody (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. The veteran has played well in Week 5, making both field goal tries. However, he suffered a right ankle injury while attempting a tackle. Moody left the field on his own, which is encouraging. But there's a chance he won't be back for the rest of the contest. If that's the case, the Niners will turn to fullback Kyle Juszczyk, the team's emergency kicker.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith caught 5-of-8 targets for 62 yards in the team's 15-10 victory over the New England Patriots. He lost one yard on his sole carry. Quarterback Tyler Huntley looked improved in his second start, leading Miami to their second win on the season. Despite the mediocre stat total, Smith played an integral role in the offense in this one -- seeing four of his receptions culminate in a first down. The 29-year-old received most of his work in the short area of the passing chart but was missed at least once on a deep shot by Huntley. Smith's totals were all good for second on the team Sunday, and fantasy managers who rolled with him have to be happy about his output. In Week 6, Miami will get their bye week, giving Huntley a bit more time to improve his rapport with the Dolphins' skill players. The former third-round pick will be tough to trust as a viable fantasy option coming out of the bye. However, the tight end's recent production and an enticing matchup against the Indianapolis Colts firmly put him on the streaming map for a position that has been volatile, to say the least.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill hauled in 6-of-9 targets for 69 yards in Sunday's 15-10 win over their division-rival New England Patriots. It was a decent bounce-back effort for the 30-year-old, who posted his first double-digit fantasy outing since Week 1. It wasn't a world-beating performance, but fantasy managers who stuck with him must be encouraged at least a little. Quarterback Tyler Huntley appeared to be much more competent in his second start, and Hill's targets, receptions, and yards all led the team. His big play of the day was a 21-yard catch on 1st-and-18 with Miami pinned back deep in their own territory after a holding call. That drive would eventually culminate in the Dolphins' second touchdown since Week 2 -- a 3-yard rush by fullback Alec Ingold. With the team heading into their Week 6 bye, Huntley will have an extended time frame to build more rapport and chemistry with Hill and the other Miami skill players. The long-time Chief will now have a week of rest before an enticing Week 7 matchup against a Swiss cheese-like Indianapolis Colts defense that just got torched for 37 points by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson put together another brilliant performance as he brought the team back from down 10 in the third quarter to a 41-38 win in overtime over the Cincinnati Bengals. Jackson had his best passing performance of the season, as he finished with 348 yards and four touchdowns on 26-for-42 throwing. He added 55 yards with 12 carries on the ground, but no scores this time around. Jackson did fumble twice, which came on bobbled snaps, but one of those turned into a ridiculous play where he stiff-armed a rusher and threw a fall-away touchdown to tight end Isaiah Likely. The two-time MVP will likely end up as the QB2 or QB1 once Week 5 is over. His next game in Week 6 could turn into another shootout in the battle for the DMV against the Washington Commanders.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns running back D'Onta Foreman carried the ball nine times for 44 yards and added a 16-yard catch in a 34-13 loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 5. Foreman unexpectedly found his way back into the game plan after he saw just six carries over the previous two contests. He ultimately wound up in a near split with starter Jerome Ford, who had 12 touches in the loss. Foreman's weekly usage has become tough to predict and he is likely to lose most of his current touches once Nick Chubb (knee) is ready to return, which could be in the next couple of weeks. Foreman will not be a fantasy consideration heading into a Week 6 road matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 29-of-54 passes for 244 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in a loss to Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: After five weeks, a few things are becoming clear. First, Rodgers can still throw the bal with amazing accuracy. Second, his age and recovery from injuries is really limiting his mobility. Finally, this offense is out of synch. Rodgers has been fine but he simply isn't good enough to carry a team at this stage in his career. If the Jets fail to land someone like Davante Adams, this may be the theme all season. For the first time in his career, Rodgers doesn't look like a QB1.
Dynasty | Jets running back Breece Hall had 23 rushing yards, three catches and 14 receiving yards in a loss to the Vikings in London. Dynasty Analysis: Ouch. After five games, Hall still doesn't have 200 yards rushing or a single game with more than 62 on the year. His three touchdowns and 21 total catches have helped, but this is now getting very concerning. Braelon Allen took six more touches away today and had 28 yards of his own. It seems the Jets are fine with a two-back system and really not using either effectively. Hall is still a player to keep in your lineup but the dream of him becoming an elite RB1 this season has effectively turned into a nightmare.
Dynasty | Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson caught 13 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 22 targets in a loss to the Vikings in London. Dynasty Analysis: Wilson was the entire offense for the Jets while many of you were sleeping this morning. At this point, New York looks content just abandoning the run and trying to just get Wilson the football. It's great in fantasy football, but likely not sustainable. Still, this was Wilson's best game and any "buy low" window for him in dynasty leagues slammed shut across the pond.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed just 14-of-31 passes for 179 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in the Vikings win against the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: Darnold did what he could after losing Aaron Jones to a hip injury, but this was by far his worst game of the season. Amazingly, Darnold still sits on top of the world after five weeks with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season. While he may not be completely matchup proof, he'll remain a solid QB1 option moving forward.
Dynasty | Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby had 101 rushing yards, one catch, 28 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: Well, here we go. Bigsby had 13 carries and one catch, while Travis Etienne had just six carries and six catches for 60 total yards. At this point, this is a clear timeshare and Bigsby is looking like the "A" with Etienne as the "B." It's a huge development in dynasty leagues as Etienne's star is fading quickly while Bigsby's value is clearly on the rise.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Joe Flacco completed 33-of-44 passes for 359 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in a loss to the Jaguars. Dynasty Analysis: It was just another day at the office for Flacco, who has made a habit of coming out of the bullpen and putting up huge games. Flacco made Deshaun Watson look pretty bad last year and his performance today didn't exactly make Anthony Richardson's early season struggles look any better. Still, it was against the Jaguars and they aren't exactly employing the Legion of Boom. Flacco will be under consideration to play again as long as Richardson sits out.
Dynasty | Colts running back Trey Sermon had 38 rushing yards, six catches, 25 receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss against Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: Sermon scored a late touchdown to turn a disappointing day into a decent one. His fantasy point total will be enough to make most happy but he certainly didn't do anything to make anyone forget about Jonathan Taylor. Sermon is roster worthy but he's a tough start moving forward for an offense that seems pretty hit and miss.
Dynasty | Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce had three catches for 134 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Jaguars. Dynasty Analysis: Pierce could have easily had two scores, but was ruled down inside the five yard line on a deep catch from Joe Flacco. Pierce has turned into a bit of a one-trick pony with the deep ball being his most effective weapon, but he certainly made the most of it today. With Joe Flacco at the helm, Pierce looks to have more fantasy appeal. We'll see what happens moving forward but Pierce looks like he's at least solidified his spot on dynasty rosters this season.
Dynasty | Jaguars running back Travis Etienne had 17 rushing yards, six catches and 43 receiving yards in a win against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: This is getting very concerning as Etienne was out-touched 14-12 by Tank Bigsby, who also posted 129 total yards and two touchdowns. It was clear this off-season the Jaguars didn't want to use Etienne as a true workhorse but few could have predicted someone would take his job at the top of the depth chart. However, it looks like that's happening at the moment as Bigsby has simply looked better through the first month of the season. Both of these players are looking like flex players at the moment and their dynasty values are clearly heading in opposite directions.
Dynasty | Colts wide receiver Josh Downs had nine catches for 69 receiving yards in a loss against Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: Downs was solid again this week and had 12 total targets to lead the Colts. While Michael Pittman is the clear WR1 in the offense, Downs has started to finally fulfill his potential. With Joe Flacco at the helm, it seems all the Colts pass catchers simply have more value. We'll see what happens with this group when Anthony Richardson comes back but this is very positive for Downs after being very up and down throughout his career.
Dynasty | Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas had five catches for 122 yards and a touchdown in a win against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas has been one of the most consistent fantasy receivers in the league over the first five weeks of the year and this was just his latest solid performance. With three touchdowns in five games and a total of 34 targets in five weeks, the rookie belongs as a staple in fantasy lineups and has clearly justified a mid-first round rookie pick this off-season.
