RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 5
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson strung together another solid fantasy day on Sunday night in the win over Pittsburgh. The third-year tight end corralled six of seven targets for 70 yards serving as quarterback Dak Prescott's security blanket. Both Brevyn Spann-Ford (three targets) and Luke Schoonmaker (two targets) mixed into the offense, but Ferguson's usage remained strong. The 25-year-old has not scored a touchdown yet this season but remains a no-brainer start at a shallow tight end position. He should be played in all lineups as a TE1 heading into next week's matchup with the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb only touched the ball six times in Sunday night's 20-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Lamb was targeted nine times, accounting for 22% of the team's targets, but only hauled in five receptions for 62 yards. He also rushed once for a two-yard gain. Without a touchdown, it was a disappointing fantasy outing for Lamb. The Cowboys' star receiver will look to bounce back next week against a pass-funnel Detroit defense. He now ranks ninth in the league in receiving yards (378) through the first five weeks of the season.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys receiver/return specialist KaVontae Turpin was involved in the offensive game plan in the Sunday night win over Pittsburgh. Turpin was targeted five times, catching four passes for 50 yards. He also rushed once for a six-yard loss. The 28-year-old is not on the fantasy radar at this time even with Brandin Cooks (knee) currently on the shelf. With Jalen Tolbert's breakout Sunday night game, Turpin is no higher than the fourth option in Dallas' passing attack even without Cooks in the lineup. His offensive usage is encouraging as an added dimension to Dallas' offense, but he has not seen consistent enough week-to-week work to be considered a fantasy option.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle carried the load on the ground on Sunday night in the last-minute 20-17 win over Pittsburgh. Dowdle rushed 20 times for 87 yards while also securing both targets for 27 yards and a touchdown. The 26-year-old has emerged as the lead running back in Dallas over the past two weeks and is now safely in the RB2 discussion solely based on workload. Dowdle should be rostered in all leagues going forward and is an RB2/Flex play weekly depending on the matchup. Next week could be a setback against a stout Detroit run defense, but Dowdle appears to have taken the backfield over from Ezekiel Elliott.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott continued to see his workload decline on Sunday night. The veteran rushed just six times for 17 yards as opposed to Rico Dowdle's 22 touches. Elliott has been phased out of the running game over the past two weeks and is now firmly off of the fantasy radar. The 29-year-old is valuable in pass protection, but cannot be counted on in fantasy due to his lack of volume. He does not need to be rostered in most formats, as he would only be startable should Dowdle miss time. Feel free to cut ties prior to a tough Week 6 matchup with the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys third-year receiver Jalen Tolbert had the best game of his young career on Sunday night in the win over Pittsburgh. Tolbert led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He caught seven of 10 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. The 25-year-old's touchdown came at the most opportune time, as he hauled in a four-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Dak Prescott with just 20 seconds remaining on the clock to take a 20-17 lead. Playing in a full-time role with Brandin Cooks (knee) sidelined, Tolbert showed that he is capable of high-end production as Dallas' number two receiver. He should be rostered as a depth option in most formats heading into Week 6's matchup with the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott overcame an up-and-down game by marching down the field on a 15-play, 70-yard drive in 4:36 to topple the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-17 on Sunday night. Prescott found wide receiver Jalen Tolbert in the end zone from four yards out, connecting with just twenty seconds on the clock to win the game. The veteran quarterback completed 29-of-42 passes for 352 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also scrambled once for a gain of three yards. Despite the tough matchup and the stormy weather conditions, Prescott had a solid fantasy day. He will remain in QB1 territory heading into next week's matchup with the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos defense/special teams unit was considered a must-start in Week 5 going up against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders, who were missing receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) and running back Zamir White (groin). They lived up to expectations in the 34-18 blowout win in Denver, accounting for 16 fantasy points thanks to three sacks, and three interceptions, one of which was returned 100 yards for a score by star cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Surtain had two of the team's three picks on the day, which forced the Raiders to bench quarterback Gardner Minshew II in favor of Aidan O'Connell. The Broncos defense is for real, folks. They have allowed 14.6 points per game (second-fewest) and currently rank fourth in fantasy points after five weeks. They belong on all fantasy rosters now and have a solid upcoming matchup in Week 6 against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey got involved in Week 5 in the 34-18 blowout win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. Humphrey was only targeted twice by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, but he made the most of his limited opportunities by catching both of his targets for 48 yards, which led all Denver receivers on the day. The yardage was just two yards shy of his season-high back in Week 2 in the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, when he caught four of five targets for 50 yards. Humphrey has 12 receptions for 135 yards and no touchdowns on 17 targets through five games in his second year with the Broncos and remains well off the fantasy radar in most leagues. He will continue to fight for limited targets with Josh Reynolds, rookie Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. in what has mostly been an inconsistent offense in Denver.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz delivered for fantasy managers that streamed him in the 34-18 Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. The Broncos offense finally came alive against a struggling Raiders defense, allowing Lutz plenty of opportunities to kick for points. He ended up making both of his field goals (long of 51) and he also converted all four of his extra-point opportunities. Lutz would have had his second missed field goal of the year, if not for a Raiders penalty allowed him to try again with time expiring in the first half as the Broncos took a 13-10 lead and never looked back. It was a nice bounce-back performance after he missed his first field goal of the year in the 10-9 win over the Jets in Week 4. The 30-year-old now ranks as the No. 6 fantasy kicker in overall points, although he'll have more volatility as a streamer in Week 6 against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fewest points per game (12.5) in the league.
From RotoBaller
For the second straight week, Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds saw just two targets from rookie quarterback Bo Nix in the 38-14 blowout win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. Reynolds caught one of those two targets for a nine-yard touchdown reception, his first score of the 2024 season. The 29-year-old pass-catcher entered the Week 4 upset win over the New York Jets leading the team in receiving yards, but he's caught just one pass on four targets for the nine-yard touchdown the last two games. It was especially disappointing that he didn't do much as the team scored a season-high 34 points. Courtland Sutton will continue to be the unquestioned top target for Nix, and Denver's offense to this point hasn't been explosive enough to sustain more than one wideout for fantasy purposes. Reynolds belongs on the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues heading into Week 6 against the Chargers.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams tight end Colby Parkinson was heavily involved in the passing game throughout the 24-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers. The former Seattle Seahawk saw more targets in this game than his first two seasons combined and he's already two targets shy of tying his career-high in a single season. Parkinson registered 52 yards and seven receptions on 13 targets against the Packers but couldn't find the end zone. His yardage totals haven't been eye-popping, but he's seen five or more targets in four of the team's five games. The Rams head into their bye week next with a game against the Las Vegas Raiders on deck for Week 7.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has yet to make his first NFL start, but that could change in Week 6 according to Adam Schefter. Head coach Jerod Mayo had a noticeable tone change when it came to answering questions about the team's quarterback situation, and another game where the offense was barely able to move the ball could set the change in motion faster than previously expected. The Patriots are dead last in passing yards per game, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage while coming in at third-to-last in passer rating. While they sit at 1-4 in the middle of a four-game losing streak, Maye could finally get his first start against the Houston Texans in Week 6.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson was the lone pass-catcher to find the end zone in the 24-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. He finished the game with three receptions for 28 yards and a score on five targets. In terms of target share, Robinson was fourth in line after Colby Parkinson, Jordan Whittington, and Tutu Atwell all saw double-digit targets. Robinson at least salvaged a bit of fantasy scoring with his touchdown for any of the fantasy managers who needed his services. The Rams move into their bye week next, which may be enough time for Cooper Kupp (ankle) to return in Week 7, which would lower Robinson's fantasy ceiling.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Jordan Whittington (shoulder) was very busy on Sunday during the team's 24-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers. The rookie wideout received 10 targets and turned it into seven receptions for 89 yards which was enough to be the top receiver on the team. He was also the only one to average double-digit yards per reception in this contest. Unfortunately, Whittington was seen in a sling when he left the locker room after the game and it looks to be a shoulder injury. There hasn't been any news about it just yet, but the team moves into a bye week, so he'll likely receive some tests and get some rest as the week moves on.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford came up short in a comeback attempt against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday as they dropped to 1-4 on the season. The former Detroit Lion posted 260 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on 29-for-45 throwing. He was sacked three times in this game but made the best of his situation with so many injuries decimating the receiving corps. While Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (knee) remain sidelined, Stafford's ceiling has quite a low cap on it. Fortunately, they head into their bye week in Week 6 to allow some rest ahead of Week 7.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers was arrested Saturday morning with some very serious charges coming his way. According to Ryan Breslin, the eight-year veteran is set to be charged with assault and battery, assault and battery with a dangerous weapon, strangulation, and possession of a class "B" substance. He's scheduled to appear in court on Monday, and the Patriots made a statement saying that they are aware of the situation but have no further comment at this time. This will likely be a case where the legal system will need to play out before Peppers receives punishment from the team or the NFL, so more information should come out after his court date.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson continues to be given too little opportunity to succeed by his offense. Against the Denver Broncos in Week 5, the seventh-year vet drilled his only attempt and converted a single extra point in Sunday's 34-18 loss. That's not a recipe for fantasy success for a kicker. He converted an extra point attempt early in the first quarter, a 40-yard attempt late in the first, and didn't have another attempt for the remainder of the game. The Raiders offense was stymied by the Broncos defense. Carlson has attempted just four field goals in his last two games and can't make up for that lack of volume with many extra points since his team isn't scoring much. He is still not worth picking up off waivers and should be dropped from rosters. The Raiders face an excellent Pittsburgh Steelers defense in Week 6 that's allowed the fifth-least fantasy points to opposing kickers this season. With the tough matchup against Pittsburgh, fantasy managers should look elsewhere for a streaming kicker option in Week 6.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) was forced to leave the team's game on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills after hauling in a 67-yard touchdown pass from C.J. Stroud. According to Adam Schefter, the team is now considering Collins day-to-day with the hamstring injury that he seemingly suffered on that play. While the Texans were able to hold on and win the game, losing Collins would be a big blow to the offense while the backfield is already banged up. Collins is currently the WR2 on the season in half-PPR formats, so his status will need to be monitored throughout the week with hamstring issues usually causing more nagging problems.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (ankle) had a brief moment on the field on Sunday where he was unable to get up after a hit, causing the entire crowd to go quiet. Luckily, the veteran QB could get up and stay on the field to finish the game against the Minnesota Vikings. While speaking to the media, head coach Robert Saleh confirmed that Rodgers suffered a low-ankle sprain and "All the preliminary stuff says he'll be fine." Despite throwing three interceptions in this contest, Rodgers and the offense had brief moments where they flashed their potential. The good news is that he should be able to get on the field in Week 6 with an added day of rest before taking on the Buffalo Bills next Monday night.
From RotoBaller
