RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 5
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday due to an ankle injury. The 24-year-old did not show any signs of a previous injury during their Week 4 match against the Baltimore Ravens. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor the injury report throughout the week. Shakir has operated as the No.1 option for Josh Allen in the Buffalo passing attack, as he has averaged 4.5 receptions with 57.5 yards per game. He caught a season-high six passes with 72 yards and a score in Week 3 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. If Shakir were to miss Sunday's game, tight end Dalton Kincaid and wideouts Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins could see an increase in targets.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III (ankle) logged a full practice on Wednesday and does not carry an injury designation ahead of Thursday's tilt against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. McCloud was a limited participant on Monday and Tuesday due to an ankle injury but was able to practice in full on Wednesday, suggesting the injury was minor. Last week, McCloud caught a season-high six passes for 52 yards and ran a season-high 31 routes. Fantasy managers should view the 27-year-old as a WR3 with upside, as he has begun to have a significant role in the Atlanta passing attack. DFS players should consider using McCloud as a flex play, as he should be on the field quite often.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (hamstring) is off the injury report and will suit up on Thursday evening when the Falcons face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, according to Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network. Robinson was limited during Monday's and Tuesday's practice sessions due to a hamstring injury, but seeing that he does not carry an injury designation into Thursday's game suggests the injury was not serious. Fantasy managers should feel confident slotting Robinson into their lineup as a high-end RB1. The 22-year-old has had a slow start to the season, averaging just 14.2 PPR points per game, but has an excellent opportunity to get back on track on Thursday as the Buccaneers have allowed the 24th-most points to opposing running backs.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Fantasy Spin: Patterson was productive in Week 4 before the injury, so fantasy players can keep an eye on his status during the week. He will see some touches if he is cleared to play in Week 5 but can be avoided in most leagues.
From TheHuddle
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson (calf) was limited during practice Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Fantasy Spin: Wilson is believed to be making progress in his recovery, but he probably will continue to be sidelined as long as Justin Fields is playing well. He could start for the Steelers at some point this season but should be avoided for now.
From TheHuddle
Atlanta Falcons LB Troy Andersen (knee) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2, and has been ruled out for Week 5. RB Jase McClellan (illness) was limited during practice and is listed as questionable. WR Ray-Ray McCloud (ankle) and OT Kaleb McGary (knee) fully participated in practice and are not on the injury report.
From TheHuddle
Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams sees the New York Jets as one of his preferred destinations if he traded because of his familiarity with QB Aaron Rodgers, according to sources.
Fantasy Spin: Adams was linked to the Jets during the offseason, so this could be a possibility before the trade deadline. He would still see plenty of targets if he joined the Jets and would still be a starting option in all fantasy leagues.
From TheHuddle
Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams sees the New Orleans Saints as one of his preferred destinations if he traded because of his familiarity with QB Derek Carr, according to sources.
Fantasy Spin: The Saints probably are a longshot for Adams because they do not have much salary cap space available, but fantasy players can keep an eye on the situation. He has shown a good connection in the past with Carr and could be a starting option in all leagues if he moved to the Saints.
From TheHuddle
Carolina Panthers LB Shaq Thompson (Achilles) underwent surgery Wednesday, Sept. Oct. 2, to repair his Achilles injury, according to head coach Dave Canales.
From TheHuddle
Carolina Panthers LB Josey Jewell (groin, hamstring), LB Shaq Thompson (Achilles), LB Jadeveon Clowney (non-injury), CB Troy Hill (non-injury) and DE A'Shawn Robinson (non-injury) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2. LB Charles Harris (shoulder), OG Robert Hunt (hip), OG Damien Lewis (elbow), S Nick Scott (shoulder), DT Shy Tuttle (foot), CB Lonnie Johnson (hip) and C Andrew Raym (head) were limited during practice.
From TheHuddle
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (knee) will be listed as a limited participant at Wednesday's practice with a knee injury, but head coach Robert Saleh is not concerned about his availability for Sunday's contest against the Minnesota Vikings in London. Rodgers reportedly missed the team's stretching period, which will cause him to be labeled as limited, but his injury is considered minor. The four-time NFL MVP was sacked five times in the ugly Week 4 loss to the Denver Broncos and said he is dealing with a little bit of swelling in his knee. Even if Rodgers was fully healthy, he would not be worth starting in single-quarterback fantasy football leagues against Minnesota, who leads the NFL in sacks (17) through four weeks. Rodgers is the QB18 on the season and is averaging just 14.3 fantasy points per game.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots center David Andrews (shoulder) will undergo surgery to repair his injured shoulder and is likely to miss the rest of the 2024 season, according to head coach Jerod Mayo. This is a significant loss for the struggling Patriots offense, as Andrews has played in 124 games dating back to 2015 with New England. The Patriots already have a young and banged-up offensive line, and potential run-blocking and protection issues will only exacerbate the lack of high-end skill players on the roster. Andrew's absence could also give New England more reason to refrain from starting rookie quarterback Drake Maye this year.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings are opening tight end T.J. Hockenson's (knee) practice window this week, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Last year's PPR TE1 in fantasy points per game is working his way back from a late-season ACL tear and began the 2024 regular season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. He has missed the required four games to be able to return and is now set to get back on the practice field. While this is a promising development for fantasy managers who are stashing him, it would be somewhat of a surprise if he's active for the game against the New York Jets on Sunday. The organization has 21 days from his return to practice to move him to the active roster, and he'll likely need a ramp-up period. That said, given the lack of production at the tight end spot this season, Hockenson is arguably a must-start as soon as he's ready to play. Minnesota's offense led by Sam Darnold is far exceeding expectations so far, so Hockenson could finish as a high-end TE1 in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders RB Austin Ekeler (concussion) is trending in the right direction to play in Week 5, head coach Dan Quinn said on Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Fantasy Spin: Ekeler was on pace to have a big game in Week 3 before his early exit, as he scored a touchdown and had two catches and 57 yards from scrimmage. He's on the flex radar entering Week 5.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) has not played since Week 1 against the Washington Commanders, and he has already been ruled out of the Week 5 Thursday Night Football contest against the Atlanta Falcons with a foot injury. Winfield was able to get a limited practice session in on Wednesday, but he evidently is not ready to suit up. There is optimism that he will be able to return in Week 6 against the New Orleans Saints given the mini-bye ahead after a Thursday night game, but for now, the Pro Bowler remains sidelined, and Christian Izien will continue to see extended playing time.
From RotoBaller
Earlier this week, Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams let the organization know that he would prefer to be traded. The team is out to a 2-2 start and Adams is reportedly working through a hamstring issue, but it appears his time in the Sin City could be coming to an end. Many have speculated that he could be eyeing a reunion with Aaron Rodgers with the New York Jets, but according to sources, the New Orleans Saints are also a preferred destination. The six-time Pro Bowler notably wanted to be traded from the Green Bay Packers to the Raiders in 2022 to play with his former college teammate Derek Carr, so he might have the chance to rejoin Carr with New Orleans. If he is eventually traded to New Orleans, wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed would likely take significant hits to their rest-of-season fantasy football outlooks. Needless to say, this is a situation worth keeping a close eye on.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Trey Palmer (concussion) have been ruled out of the Thursday Night Football contest against the Atlanta Falcons, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. McMillan suffered a hamstring injury in last Friday's practice and did not play in Week 4, while Palmer suffered a concussion in the win over the Philadelphia Eagles. With both wideouts banged up, veteran receiver Sterling Shepard caught three passes for 51 yards. He has since been signed to the active roster following last week's practice-squad elevation, so he should occupy the WR3 role behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in Thursday's NFC South clash. Shepard is not a great option for traditional leagues, but he can be utilized as a desperation flex play in deeper setups.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 201 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games of the 2024 campaign, but over the last two weeks, he has mustered just 66 yards on the ground. He has also fumbled one time in all four contests, which has led to head coach Jerod Mayo considering starting Antonio Gibson ahead of him. "That's definitely under consideration," Mayo said. "We can't preach ball security is job security and still have him out there the majority of the time." Gibson has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 11.7 yards per reception through his first 36 touches this year, so it would not be surprising if he at least starts to eat into Stevenson's workload. However, New England extended Stevenson's contract this offseason, so it would be somewhat of a surprise if he's benched for a significant stretch. All that said, there's a chance the New England backfield morphs into more of a committee approach, which would hurt Stevenson's fantasy outlook and enhance Gibson's. Gibson should be picked up in leagues of 12 teams or more based on Mayo's comments.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DL Calijah Kancey (calf), WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and WR Trey Palmer (concussion) did not practice on Wednesday, Oct. 2, and have been ruled out for Week 5. Also, S Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) and OL Luke Goedeke (concussion) were limited but were ruled out, WR Mike Evans (knee, calf), OT Tristan Wirfs (knee) and DL William Gholston (knee) were limited but carry no designation, and C Graham Barton (ankle), DL Greg Gaines (ankle), DL Logan Hall (foot), WR Kameron Johnson (ankle), TE Ko Kieft (ankle) and DL Vita Vea (knee) practiced in full and have no designation.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (knee, calf) was limited at practice for the second straight day on Wednesday, Oct. 2, but carries no designation for Week 5.
Fantasy Spin: Evans was limited twice and didn't practice once before posting his best game of the 2024 campaign, so there's no concern here. Evans is a high-end WR2 with upside.
From TheHuddle
