Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (back) was not spotted at Friday's practice. That makes a third consecutive absence at training camp due to a back issue for Kamara, who appears all but certain to sit out Sunday's preseason game against the hosting San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Fantasy managers shouldn't be concerned with Kamara's injury at the moment, but it would certainly be encouraging to see him back on the field at some point next week with the regular season quickly approaching. It doesn't help the Saints that there remains no sign of second-year back Kendre Miller (hamstring) at practice. Veteran power back Jamaal Williams makes sense as a bench stash in deep fantasy leagues while New Orleans' backfield remains banged up, and he figures to draw the start on Sunday against San Francisco.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals agreed to terms on a three-year, $16.5 million contract extension with kicker Evan McPherson on Friday, according to his agents. McPherson will earn $10 million in new money in the first year of the deal, the most ever for a three-year kicker extension. The 25-year-old former fifth-round pick in 2021 out of Florida earned his extension by making 83.9% of his 93 field-goal attempts in his first three seasons in the NFL with the Bengals, including going 126-for-132 on his extra points in 49 regular-season games. McPherson went 26-for-31 on field goals and a perfect 40-for-40 on extra points in 17 games for Cincy last year. All five of his missed FGs in 2023 came from over 50 yards out. With quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) back from injury, McPherson should be drafted as a top-12 fantasy kicker in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Rams plan to hold out the same players that missed the preseason opener in Saturday's preseason contest against the Los Angeles Chargers, including wide receiver Cooper Kupp and running back Kyren Williams. Kupp has been healthy this summer during training camp, but head coach Sean McVay isn't taking any chances with the team's key players in the preseason this year. It remains to be seen if the 31-year-old Kupp or other key players will even suit up for the preseason finale next week. Kupp missed the first four games of 2023 with a hamstring injury, so it makes sense as to why the Rams want to rest him this summer. With better health, a bounce-back campaign in 2024 is possible for a player only a couple years removed from a league-high 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, but the presence of rising star Puka Nacua won't help Kupp's cause.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles rookie wide receiver Johnny Wilson (head) is in the league's concussion protocol after getting injured in a joint practice on Tuesday and not being able to suit up for the preseason game against the New England Patriots on Thursday night. Wilson will be hoping to get cleared in time for the team's final preseason contest on Aug. 24 against the Minnesota Vikings. The 23-year-old sixth-round selection caught one of his three targets for seven yards in the preseason opener last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Injury aside, Wilson is going to have a tough time finding much of a role in Philly in his first NFL season while being behind A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Parris Campbell on the receiving depth chart.
From RotoBaller
The saga between the San Francisco 49ers and disgruntled wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is reaching a critical point with only 20 days until the start of the 2024 regular season. Things have gone back and forth between the two sides, and at times a trade has seemed imminent. However, general manager John Lynch on Friday said that he understands the "urgency" of the matter involving Aiyuk. "I can tell you, we feel the urgency to have him, the season's approaching, and we have ample time," Lynch also said. The GM wouldn't say what the odds were of Aiyuk staying in San Fran and didn't give a timetable for a final decision. Lynch said there's no animosity between the club and Aiyuk. From a fantasy perspective, Aiyuk's value will be the highest in 2024 as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 if he stays with the Niners. If he cannot reach an extension with San Fran, a trade to the Steelers could be in the works.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo said that "the competition isn't over" for the starting quarterback job in Week 1 of the regular season between veteran Jacoby Brissett and rookie first-rounder Drake Maye. Mayo said that Maye has made strides, but he wants to see the whole operation be faster with Maye running the show. Maye has gone 8-for-14 for 66 yards and a rushing score in two preseason games to this point, while Brissett has gone 3-for-10 for only 17 yards and an interception. It's possible that the 21-year-old rookie will get more reps with the first-team offense in training camp practices before the final preseason contest next week. Brissett is still probably the favorite to start in Week 1, but he's probably not going to be able to hold off Maye for long if he continues to play like he has in the preseason.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen expressed concern when running back Kendre Miller (hamstring) got hurt three weeks ago in training camp about being able to make the team from the training room. Allen said that sentiment hasn't changed at this point, not just with Miller, but any young player who hasn't gotten to show enough for a true evaluation. The 22-year-old former third-round in 2023 has been a disappointment since entering the NFL. The former TCU star also dealt with nagging injuries in his rookie season and played in only eight games, carrying the ball 41 times for 156 yards and one touchdown and catching 10 passes for 117 yards. He's currently third on the RB depth chart behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams and could be falling further. Miller is off the fantasy radar for now in single-year leagues.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (calf) did an extensive workout on a side field at training camp on Thursday and appears to be getting close to a return to practice. It's great news for the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick and NFL's reigning rushing leader. McCaffrey is recovering from a calf strain that he suffered earlier this month and is not going to play at all in the preseason as a result. But as long as the 28-year-old All-Pro is on track to be ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener on Monday night against the New York Jets on Sept. 9, he'll remain the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy selection in upcoming drafts. As of right now, the 49ers don't seem worried that CMC will miss the start of the regular season, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on his progress.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (foot) shed his walking boot on Thursday and was working out in the weight room. Herbert had a walking boot on for exactly two weeks while he deals with a plantar-fascia injury in his foot. It's good news that the 26-year-old is out of his boot, but it remains to be seen when he'll actually rejoin his teammates at training camp practices as he prepares for the start of the 2024 season. As long as he doesn't have any setbacks with his foot, it's likely that Herbert will be ready for the Week 1 regular-season matchup against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert's fantasy stock was already on the decline before his foot injury with his top targets -- Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams -- all departing in the offseason and with a run-first offense expected under the new coaching staff.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (back) left individual drills on Thursday due to back tightness, which was later confirmed as a back injury, according to Katherine Terrell of ESPN. The rookie lineman was the 14th overall pick this year and is expected to step into a starting role to protect quarterback Derek Carr. His status for the team's next preseason game on Sunday is to be determined. Fuaga looked great in his first preseason game, as he allowed no pressures and received a pass-blocking grade of 77.2 from PFF. Having him healthy heading into the regular season will likely be the team's priority.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (unknown) was not at practice on Thursday night and the reason is still unknown. The star wideout rejoined his teammates on Monday after the birth of his son and has practiced as usual since then. His absence is more than likely a short-term deal but it would be worth monitoring as it remains to be seen if he suits up for a preseason game this year. The quarterback battle continues while Adams' fantasy impact weighs heavily on who wins between Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Trey Sermon (hamstring) continues to battle hamstring issues since suffering the injury during the team's first preseason contest against the Denver Broncos. The fourth-year back has separated himself as the leader for the backup position, but the hamstring issue has opened the door for the next two backs to move up the depth chart. Right now, Tyler Goodson seems to be leading that race with Evan Hull following him. Jonathan Taylor is still the workhorse of the backfield, however, so the fantasy impact of the backup competition will come to fruition if Taylor is hurt and has to miss any action.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte turned four targets into three catches for 23 yards during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. His longest play was a 13-yard reception. Boutte was the Patriots' most productive pass-catcher in the contest, leading the team in receptions and yards while tying for the most targets. The second-year receiver likely isn't going to be a fantasy weapon in 2024, but this performance should still be highlighted as it gives Boutte a stronger chance of making the roster and carving out a role down the stretch.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Javon Baker was targeted four times during Thursday's preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he finished the contest with just one catch for 12 yards. Even though the rookie's production was limited, fantasy managers should pay most attention to the fact that he tied for the team lead in targets. All four of the passes thrown his way came from rookie Drake Maye, who saw the field in the second and third quarters. Baker is worth a late-round pick in deeper fantasy leagues given that he could still carve out a meaningful role in the Patriots' offense this season.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye completed six of 11 passes for 47 yards during Thursday's preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles. He also showed off some mobility, rushing four times for 15 yards and adding a touchdown on the ground. After an uninspiring performance over a limited sample size last week, Maye earned more opportunities this week and finally showed flashes of a potential starting quarterback. It's still unclear whether he'll start over Jacoby Brissett when the regular season comes around, but this appearance was promising nonetheless. Specifically, fantasy managers can get excited about the fact that the Patriots dialed up a designed run around the goal line for the rookie.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett completed just three of seven passes for 17 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Brissett played the entire first quarter, leading three unsuccessful drives, the middle of which saw the Patriots move close to the goal line before Brissett threw a costly interception in the end zone. This uninspiring outing falls in line with less-than-glowing reports out of Patriots training camp, suggesting that the gap between Brissett and rookie Drake Maye may be shrinking. As of now, Brissett's experience probably still gives him the slight edge for QB1 in New England, but it should be noted that Maye had a very good performance Thursday against Philadelphia.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 18 yards on six carries during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. He was not targeted in the passing game. Stevenson, of course, saw all of his reps come with the first-team offense. Even though he only played in the first quarter, he led the Patriots in touches and rushing yards. Fantasy managers can't (and shouldn't) take too much stock in Stevenson's appearance Thursday, but it does bear mentioning that his quarterback situation is still a bit murky as Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye continue to battle for the starting job. Regardless of which quarterback gets the bulk of the reps in 2024, Stevenson should be heavily involved both on the ground and in the passing attack.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Joseph Ngata caught all five of his targets for 88 yards during the team's 14-13 preseason win over the New England Patriots. The second-year receiver flashed similar skills on occasion last preseason but spent most of his time on the practice squad. There is a fight for the final few receiver spots between Ngata, veteran John Ross, and E.J. Jenkins, but Ross has seen plenty of reps with the second team in practice and has seemed to have the most buzz out of the group this preseason. If Ngata can have another strong outing next week, perhaps he can nab one of the final roster spots. If not, expect the young receiver to latch onto the Philadelphia practice squad.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Will Shipley took five carries for 15 yards and caught all four of his targets for 31 yards during the team's 14-13 win over the New England Patriots. Kenneth Gainwell again got the start Thursday night with the second-team offense but was replaced much earlier this week by Shipley, who saw snaps with No. 2 quarterback Kenny Pickett. The rookie only saw one target last week, but was targeted by both quarterbacks throughout the game and was far more efficient with them than Gainwell. While Shipley may open the season as the No. 3 on the depth chart, he can easily push for passing down snaps and earn more playing time as the season rolls on unless Gainwell can step it up compared to last year. Neither will retain any fantasy relevance in redraft leagues unless Saquon Barkley misses time.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Tyrion Davis-Price took four carries for 28 yards and caught his lone target for no gain during the team's 14-13 win over the New England Patriots. The former San Francisco 49er did well with his touches but did not see playing time until late in the game and seems to be far behind Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley on the depth chart. The Eagles are looking to find their No. 4 back, and rookie Kendall Minton has been staving off Davis-Price for that final spot. The loser will likely land on the practice squad heading into the regular season. It will be interesting to see who gets in the game first during the Eagles' final preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings next Saturday.
From RotoBaller