Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel had a breakout day on Thursday at training camp. On his last catch of the day, he broke open on the right side with Cam Lewis in coverage. It sounds like Samuel is impressing at practice, which bodes well for his standing in Buffalo's wide open receiving corps following the departures of top targets Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. The 27-year-old veteran is set to be one of quarterback Josh Allen's preferred options in three-receiver sets alongside rookie Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir in 2024, but he could also see some work on the ground as well, with 121 rushing attempts for his career. His ceiling may be limited by a role with a low average depth of target, but Samuel is looking like a high-floor WR3/4 option in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. looked slimmer during spring drills than he had last year, and he appears to have lost even more weight for the start of training camp. "I think he looks great," head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the offense took its first snaps in 11-on-11 drills. "I thought he looked great in OTAs and minicamp. And I think he looks better today." The 49ers are practicing without two wideouts, Brandon Aiyuk and first-round pick Ricky Pearsall (hamstring), so Samuel's fantasy draft stock remains in a state of flux until a clearer picture emerges of how this receiving corps might look for the start of the regular season. The 28-year-old Pro Bowl wideout totaled 12 touchdowns in 15 appearances in 2023, placing second at his position in PPR fantasy points per route run (0.67) and first in fantasy points per target (2.74) over 89 targets, and he's being treated as a WR1 bet at his second-round ADP this summer.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (leg) worked into offseason practices this spring for the first time since his season-ending leg injury early last season and took nearly a full share of first-team repetitions in team drills next to Terrel Bernard in the first training camp practice this week. The Bills said they are going to have a plan so that Milano doesn't put too much on his plate too soon, and there may even b some reps or whole practices off this summer. But the 29-year-old is way ahead of players like Tre'Davious White in 2022 or Von Miller last year this point in camp. As long as he doesn't have any setbacks with his leg, the Bills should have one of the best defenders to open the 2024 regular season. The former fifth-rounder in 2017 out of Boston College was a Pro Bowler in 2022, when he had 99 tackles (72 solo), 1.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, seven QB hits and three picks (one for a TD) in 15 starts.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid is a popular breakout candidate in 2024 as he heads into his second season because of his approach, talent and on-field connection with quarterback Josh Allen. Kincaid was also excellent on the first day of training camp practice this week, and the potential is there for him to be one of the Bills' top targets in 2024. However, from the looks of things on the first day, those expecting Kincaid to take over the full-time pass-catching role from Dawson Knox this year and push the veteran TE into a backup role may have their hopes dashed, according to The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia. Both Kincaid and Knox worked heavily with Allen, and neither player worked in with backup QB Mitchell Trubisky. It's something worth watching, and as long as Knox stays healthy, it could keep Kincaid from reaching true breakout status as a TE1 in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans CB Chidobe Awuzie (calf) is expected to miss 'a few weeks' with a calf injury, according to Jim Wyatt of TennesseeTitans.com.
From TheHuddle
The Denver Broncos added $1.5 million in incentives on Thursday to wide receiver Courtland Sutton's contract for the 2024 season. Sutton still has two years left on his current deal. The 28-year-old was set to make $13.6 million this year and $14 million in 2025 and was a potential training camp holdout candidate, but he has reported this week and now has added incentives to be productive for the Broncos. Not only will Sutton be losing quarterback Russell Wilson, who he had developed considerable chemistry with, but he'll now be taking passes from either Jarrett Stidham or rookie Bo Nix in 2024. Volume shouldn't be the problem as Denver's unquestioned top pass-catcher, but efficiency probably will be, as well as some serious touchdown regression after he put up a career-high 10 scores. Sutton profiles as a low-upside WR4/flex in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Amidst some talk about a trade and/or a contract extension, Tennessee Titans veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins sounds like he wants to stay with the Titans in 2024 and beyond. "I take it day by day. I love Tennessee. I love what Miss Amy's doing. This is the happiest I've been with any organization. I'll let that speak for itself," Hopkins said. The five-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro wideout recorded the seventh 1,000-yard season of his career in 2023 in his first year in Tennessee and also recorded seven touchdowns in 17 games. The 32-year-old veteran wasn't as productive deep down the field for the Titans last year, though, and the addition of wideout Calvin Ridley is going to take valuable aerial targets away. This should be a pass-happy offense under new head coach Brian Callahan, but Hopkins' fantasy stock is down entering 2024, and managers should consider him as more of a WR3/4.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans head coach Brian Callahan discussed the team's tight end room at training camp earlier this week. "It's not a room that's gonna be dominated by one guy We're gonna fill the tight end role with a lot of different players, as opposed to maybe just one or two guys like some teams do," Callahan said. Chigoziem Okonkwo was the team's top pass-catching tight end in 2023, but that resulted in only 54 receptions on 77 targets for 528 yards and one touchdown in 17 games (11 starts) in his second NFL season in an offense that didn't see a lot of passing volume. The 24-year-old is probably the best bet to lead the position again in 2024, but it doesn't guarantee he'll be a weekly fantasy play, especially after the team added receiver Calvin Ridley this offseason. Competing with Okonkwo for playing time at the position will be Josh Whyle and Nick Vannett.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen said at training camp on Thursday that the team isn't going to limit second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder) as a runner. "People ask this, too 'Hey, are you gonna limit the run game?' And I kind of think like, 'Shoot, are you gonna limit Steph Curry from shooting 3-pointers. Well, that's one of Anthony (Richardson's) strengths. We're not gonna get away from that," Steichen said. General manager Chris Ballard said earlier this week that the 22-year-old former first-rounder will be full-go in camp after needing season-ending right-shoulder surgery after just four games played in his rookie season in 2023. Because of his playing style and ability to extend plays with his legs, Richardson is more injury-prone than some other QBs, but he also has elite upside. Despite having never played a full season, Richardson is going to a popular midrange QB1 target in fantasy drafts this fall.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said that quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) "is read to go" and medically cleared for training camp, but that the team will do some "modifications" for his work this summer. Cousins will not start camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list, which is great news for all involved in Atlanta's offense heading into the 2024 campaign. The 35-year-old veteran tore his Achilles in late October last year and is now attempting to learn a new offense in his first year with the Falcons. Although he won't be throwing to All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson anymore, Cousins will have plenty of weapons around him in his new home. But with no rushing ability and coming off a serious injury going into his age-36 campaign, Cousins has a limited ceiling and cannot be trusted as anything more than a midrange QB2 in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said that quarterback Russell Wilson (calf) "woke up with a tight calf" on Thursday and was held out of training camp practice. Tomlin is calling Wilson day-to-day. With Wilson taking the day off, backup Justin Fields got first-team repetitions. The 35-year-old Wilson probably won't miss much time and is still fully expected to open the 2024 regular season as Pittsburgh's QB1 after two disappointing seasons with the Denver Broncos. At this point in his career, Wilson's leadership abilities are probably his greatest asset on the football field. In what is expected to be more of a run-first Steelers offense, Wilson will be more of a game manager in his first year in the Steel City and won't have a ton of fantasy upside as a low-end QB2 in fantasy with receiver George Pickens as his No. 1 wideout.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton agreed to a restructured contract that can pay him up to $15.2 million in 2024, including $1.5 million in new incentives, according to sources Thursday, July 25.
Fantasy Spin: Sutton should be viewed as a WR3 option in drafts given the shaky offense and questionable options at quarterback.
From TheHuddle
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson (calf) is considered day-to-day with a calf injury, according to sources Thursday, July 25. In Wilson's absence, Justin Fields took first-team reps at quarterback.
Fantasy Spin: This will be something to monitor for the Steelers wide receivers. Wilson is most likely a mid-QB2 with limited upside in Arthur Smith's offnse.
From TheHuddle
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins (Achilles) was medically cleared to practice, according to sources Thursday, July 25. The Falcons will be diligent with his workload, but Cousins is still expected to receive all first-team reps.
Fantasy Spin: Cousins has a great group of weapons around him to be a solid QB2 with some QB1 upside in certain weeks as long as he's healthy.
From TheHuddle
New York Jets LB Haason Reddick was placed on the Reserve/Did Not Report list Thursday, July 25.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (illness) returned to practice on Wednesday after missing Monday and Tuesday's action with an illness, but the two-time NFL MVP left the field after just one hour. According to team reporter Jamison Hensley, Jackson " looked weary while walking across the field and into the team facility." The former No. 32 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft has missed at least one practice every year due to an illness, but the bright side is it is not a major injury. For now, Baltimore is going to take it slow with Jackson. "We are going to work him back in, for sure," Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken said with a smile. "I know I'm being kind of a smartass. You'll have to ask him how he feels. But he was great in meetings. When we were on the field at the start [of practice], he said he was feeling good." The team has its first scheduled day off on Thursday, so hopefully, the day off will allow Jackson enough time to feel better and return to full practice in short order. He remains a high-end QB1 in fantasy football heading into his seventh pro campaign.
From RotoBaller
Earlier in the week, it was reported that Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love will not practice at training camp until he reaches an agreement on a new contract with the organization. According to NFL insider Dianna Russini, the two sides are getting close to reaching a deal. "Based on my conversations today, it's all making progress and heading there. Just not done at this time," Russini wrote on X. The 2020 first-round pick finally got a chance to start in 2023 following the departure of Aaron Rodgers, and he exceeded all expectations with 4,159 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. More importantly, he led Green Bay to a playoff victory over the No. 2 seed Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Wild Card round despite having one of the youngest offensive supporting casts in the NFL. Given the boom of the quarterback market, don't be surprised if Love signs a deal in the $50 million-salary range.
From RotoBaller
According to NFL insider Adam Schefter, the Los Angeles Rams fear Derion Kendrick (knee) suffered a torn ACL at the start of training camp. The former sixth-round pick is expected to start for L.A. in 2024, so this is a troubling development for the team and the 23-year-old defensive back. Since entering the league in 2022, Kendrick has racked up 92 tackles, one interception, and 14 pass deflections in 32 games. The two-time College Football Playoff National Champion will likely miss the entire 2024 campaign if additional testing confirms the initial diagnosis of a torn ACL, which could open the door for veteran Tre'Davious White to play a more significant role in his first season with the Rams.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has been in the offseason retirement rumors over the last two seasons, but he is back for a 16th NFL campaign (fourth with the Rams), and team reporter Stu Jackson said he is looking sharp at the start of training camp. "Matthew Stafford picked up where he left off with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but best connections were on TD passes to TEs Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen," Jackson wrote on X. The 36-year-old gun-slinger is unlikely to be a trustworthy fantasy option in single-QB leagues, but he's a fine backup or QB2 in Superflex or two-QB formats. Stafford has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in nine of the 10 seasons that he has played in at least 16 contests. With a healthy Kupp and more experienced Nacua, don't be surprised if Los Angeles' continues to have a high-powered passing attack.
From RotoBaller