RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 5
The Dallas Cowboys' defense has had a very up-and-down season through the first month. They looked like the unit we were all used to a season ago in Week 1 against Cleveland, but quickly fell off a cliff for Weeks 2 and 3. Week 4 against the Giants was no tough test, and now Dallas will face a conservative Pittsburgh Steelers offense in Week 5. Quarterback Justin Fields has been on a hot streak, accounting for six touchdowns and one turnover in the past three games. There are better streaming options available this week. Dallas is a fringe startable unit, but check free agency first for a better option against a weaker offensive unit.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson has been one of the few consistent tight end options this season. With Brandin Cooks (knee) ruled out for Sunday night's game in Pittsburgh, Ferguson should figure to see a consistent target share again. Ferguson has seen 21.6% of passes come his way when in the lineup this season, accounting for the second-highest percentage of targets on the team behind only CeeDee Lamb. The 25-year-old should be thrown into lineups this weekend in all formats despite going up against a tough Pittsburgh secondary. Dallas has leaned on the passing game and should continue to do so in Week 5.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey has been the top option at his position this season. The Cowboys play in Pittsburgh on Sunday night in what could be a lower-scoring game. Despite the tough matchup, Aubrey should remain in all lineups. The number one kicker in fantasy cannot be cut from rosters, forcing him into lineups in a tough matchup. Downgrade expectations for Aubrey this week, although he still remains a top-three option at the position.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Noah Brown (groin) was ruled out for Sunday's game, according to JP Finlay of 1067 The Fan. Brown participated in Wednesday's practice in a limited fashion but was unable to practice on Thursday, which suggests the injury was more severe than previously expected. The 28-year-old has begun to emerge as the No.2 wideout opposite of Terry McLaurin, as he has caught three passes in every game and saw a season-high four targets last week. Through this stretch, Brown has averaged 37 yards each game. Fantasy managers should expect Terry McLaurin, tight end Zach Ertz, and running back Austin Ekeler to see a slight uptick in targets with Brown sitting out. Third-round pick Luke McCaffrey could also see an increase in playing time along with Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown and are worth a look as a flex option in 14+ team leagues.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb remains one of the top fantasy options at the position going into Sunday night's matchup with Pittsburgh. Despite a road matchup in a tough nighttime environment against the eighth-best secondary against opposing receivers, Lamb remains a no-brainer start due to his high volume share and unlimited fantasy ceiling. With Brandin Cooks (knee) ruled out for the game and Rico Dowdle (wrist) banged up, even more work should go Lamb's way in prime time. The 25-year-old is one of the few matchup-proof players in fantasy and should be started in all formats this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) was seen at Friday's practice, according to Ben Standig of The Athletic. Standig noted that the portion of practice that was open to the media was very brief and did not provide much clarity on his status heading into Sunday. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to the injury report later on Friday afternoon as the Alabama product will likely carry a designation into the weekend as he did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. The 25-year-old has enjoyed an excellent start to the season as he has found the end zone in all but one game and eclipsed 100 yards in two of them. If Robinson suits up, he should be viewed as a high-end RB2. If he is unable to play, fantasy managers should lock Austin Ekeler into their lineup, as he should be expected to see a significant uptick in opportunities.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert should see an expanded role on Sunday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brandin Cooks (knee) has been ruled out, opening up an every-down role for the 25-year-old. Tolbert has 13 receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown through four games. He recorded a season-high nine targets and 82 yards against Baltimore in Week 3. While Pittsburgh's secondary (8th against opposing receivers) is no easy matchup, Dallas has gotten little production out of their rushing attack this season and has been forced to lean on the pass. Tolbert should see targets on Sunday, making him a flex candidate with many bye weeks and injuries limiting available options.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler (concussion) was officially cleared to play on Sunday, according to JP Finlay of 1067 The Fan. Ekeler logged a full practice on Thursday and will now return to game action this weekend. The former Charger suffered a concussion in Week 3 and was unable to suit up last weekend. Through his first three games as a Commander, Ekeler has taken the backseat to Brian Robinson Jr. as he has typically been deployed in passing situations. The 29-year-old has tallied at least 22 receiving yards in every game, with a high of 52 in Week 1. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to Brian Robinson Jr.'s status heading into the weekend, as he has been dealing with a knee injury throughout the week. If Robinson were to miss Sunday's game, Ekeler should see an uptick in work and be viewed as a solid RB2 with upside.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins defense/special teams is one of the more intriguing plays in Week 5 when they face the New England Patriots on the road. Miami's defensive unit has allowed the seventh-most points per game in the league this year (25.8) but is averaging just the sixth-fewest yards per game to opposing offenses (282.0). Conversely, New England's offense ranks at the bottom of the league in total offense per contest (238.8) and second-to-last in scoring (13.0 PPG). The Dolphins will be missing linebacker Jaelan Phillips (knee) for the rest of the season and could be down safety Jordan Poyer (shin) after he was forced from their 31-12 loss to the Tennessee Titans. However, the Fins have recorded an interception in back-to-back outings and three sacks in 2-of-4 contests thus far. They're RotoBaller's DST8 for this week's rankings.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has strung together back-to-back QB1 fantasy performances, but the same should not be expected from the veteran heading into Sunday night's matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has the sixth-best defense against opposing quarterbacks through the season's first month, creating a tough matchup for the Cowboys' signal caller. Brandin Cooks (knee) has also been ruled out, leaving Prescott with fewer options in the passing game than usual. Prescott is still playable, but beware that both his ceiling and floor will be more limited than usual. Consider sitting the 31-year-old in one quarterback leagues.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz enters Week 5 against Buffalo coming off his most productive game of the season, albeit for just three catches and 34 receiving yards. The veteran tight end is still playing a ton of snaps for Houston nearly 84% but he hasn't been the pass-catching option fantasy managers had hoped thus far. However, Buffalo blitzes less than any team in the league and Houston's backfield has been impacted by injuries, possibly opening the door for a higher volume of short-yardage throws that could benefit a tight end. Still, Schultz has been tough to trust in a Texans offense with many mouths to feed.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (concussion) is "good to go" for Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers, according to Dani Sureck of the Arizona Cardinals. McBride suffered a concussion during their Week 3 loss to the Detroit Lions and was held out of last weekend's game. During the first three weeks of the campaign, McBride has seen at least six targets his way in every game, with a high of nine in the opening week. The tight end has caught at least five passes in two games and averaged 40.7 yards in each game. Fantasy managers should confidently lock the 24-year-old into their lineup this weekend as a high-end TE1 despite facing a tough San Francisco defense.
From RotoBaller
With his former Buffalo Bills teammates visiting this week, Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs continues to be a solid WR2 play. The 30-year-old has allayed concerns about his usage on a new team by playing 81% of snaps, drawing more than eight targets per game, and putting up three top-20 finishes in four weeks. The Bills' pass defense ranks first against fantasy wide receivers thus far, but Diggs and fellow wideout Nico Collins are drawing so much volume each week that they still belong in starting lineups. And if you're a believer in revenge games, the former Bill is definitely looking for a big performance on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills have been awfully tough on pass catchers in 2024, but Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins remains in elite territory as the two sides prepare to clash in Week 5. The 25-year-old receiver looks to be entering his prime with a capable supporting cast, and the early returns have been excellent. Collins leads the NFL in receiving yardage and is drawing 10.8 targets per game. Buffalo has allowed the third-fewest air yards in the NFL and ranks No. 1 against fantasy wide receivers, though Collins has produced against everybody he has played in 2024. Until that changes, the Michigan product should be valued as a WR1 in any format.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud faces a marquee game on Sunday with the Buffalo Bills in town. The quarterback's sophomore campaign is off to a solid start: he already has surpassed the 1,000-yard mark, he has a 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and the Texans are 3-1. Next up is a steady Bills defense that has blitzed less than any team in the NFL and allowed the third-fewest air yards. Stroud and the Texans can expect to see a lot of coverage-heavy looks against the Bills, especially with running back Joe Mixon (ankle) unlikely to see the field. Even so, the second-year quarterback is at the helm of a dangerous offense, making him a safe QB1 play in this matchup.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Devin Singletary (groin) will practice on Friday, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN. This is a great sign as Singletary did not practice earlier this week. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to his status during Friday's practice as it should provide clarity on his availability for Sunday's game. Through his first four games as a New York Giant, the 27-year-old has logged at least 40 snaps in every game and has been deployed as a three-down back. He has seen double-digit rushing attempts in every game and received at least four targets in two out of the four games. If the former Buffalo Bill is able to suit up, he should be viewed as a low-end RB2. If not, rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. is worth considering as an upside flex option in deeper formats.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (chest) could play this weekend, according to Cameron Wolfe of the NFL Network. Wolfe noted that this will be determined following Friday's practice session. Mostert has been sidelined since Week 1 with a chest injury he suffered in the season opener. In that game, the veteran running back saw six carries and two targets. During this week, Mostert was able to log two consecutive limited practice sessions, which suggests he could be nearing a return. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to Friday's injury report, as it should provide clarity on his status heading into the weekend. If Mostert is able to suit up, he should be viewed as a flex option facing the New England Patriots, who have allowed the 18th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders will not be a recommended fantasy option in Week 5 when his team takes on the New England Patriots in Foxborough. Sanders has missed just two field goals on the season and has yet to miss an extra point attempt in four contests. However, scoring opportunities have been challenging to come by, with Miami punching in just three touchdowns through the first month of games. This offense continues to trend negatively until quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) returns. Despite the 28-year-old's trademark accuracy, fantasy managers may want to aim elsewhere for a more consistent kicking option that garners a higher floor and ceiling regarding weekly output. The former seventh-round pick is RotoBaller's K28 in this Week's rankings.
From RotoBaller
The Houston Texans enter Week 5 in the middle of the pack among fantasy defenses on the season, making them a highly risky play against the Buffalo Bills. Behind quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo has been excellent through four weeks. The Bills are one of three teams averaging more than 30 points, their 73.3% red zone touchdown percentage ranks third in the NFL, and they are scoring on nearly 49% of their drives overall, which is fifth-best in the league. Further, Buffalo is turning over the ball on fewer than 5% of drives and they have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks. Chances are good fantasy managers can find a better streaming option than Houston this week.
From RotoBaller
As one of two kickers in the NFL to have made six field goals from 50 or more yards, Houston Texans kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn remains an easy starting lineup decision with the Buffalo Bills visiting in Week 5. The UCLA product is 8-for-9 overall on field goals, perfect on extra points, and attached to one of the league's better offenses. Additionally, Buffalo's defense has allowed touchdowns on only half of its opponents' trips to the red zone so far this season. Playing indoors for a fifth straight game, Fairbairn is a top-five option among fantasy kickers this week.
From RotoBaller
