Guest of the League
Dimes Best Ball 93
FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Top 3 Busts

Player Notes
Robbie Chosen Aug 9 8:55pm CT
Robbie Chosen

Dynasty | Free agent wide receiver Robby Chosen has signed with the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: The player formerly known as Robbie Anderson (and briefly as Chosen Anderson) will attempt to make the 53-man roster, though that could prove tough as he's bounced around the league in recent years. The news here may be the fact the 49ers are improving their depth chart in the hopes they can move Brandon Aiyuk here soon. Stay tuned.

Adonai Mitchell Aug 9 8:50pm CT
Adonai Mitchell

Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell is taking advantage of his increased playing time with the first team with Josh Downs (ankle) out. As per Kevin Bowen of The Fan, Friday was easily the best combined practice for him and teammate Alec Pierce. Both routinely worked with the starters, and notably, Mitchell ran out of the slot, hauling in three of three targets. The rookie wideout has nine receptions throughout training camp now, giving him the fourth-most among Colts pass-catchers, trailing only Michael Pittman Jr., Downs, and Kylen Granson. The Colts' coaching staff trusting Mitchell to expand his role so quickly is an encouraging sign. Downs' progress in return from injury is something to monitor, because if he were to miss time during the season, the former Texas Longhorn could return sleeper value in drafts this year. He's the NFFC WR66 (158 overall) currently in average draft position.

From RotoBaller

Noah Fant Aug 9 8:50pm CT
Noah Fant

Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald announced that he believes tight end Noah Fant (foot) will practice next week. He missed a bit of time over the last few days due to a foot injury incurred during Wednesday's practice, but it seems he'll be all good to return following the weekend. This is a good sign for the sixth-year veteran, as any time missed during the crucial install of Ryan Grubb's offense could cost him. Targets will be scarce for Fant, as he has DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to contend with for quarterback Geno Smith's targets. During Grubb's 2023 reign as coordinator for the Washington Huskies' offense, tight end Jack Westover finished the season with the fourth-most receptions and yards in Washington's offense. It seems fitting to project a similar situation here. Fant is the TE24 in NFFC ADP (207 overall) and is only a target in two-tight end and best-ball formats.

From RotoBaller

JuJu Smith-Schuster Aug 9 8:13pm CT
JuJu Smith-Schuster

Dynasty | The Patriots have released wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Dynasty Analysis: After a decent 2022 campaign in Kansas City, the Patriots signed Smith-Schuster to a three-year deal last off-season. Unfortunately, it turned out to be a mess as he posted just a 29/260/1 season in 11 games. With players like Demario Douglas and Ja'Lynn Polk apparently ready to move into prominent positions, he was simply expendable. At this point, he's still just 27 years old and should latch on to a team as a veteran presence. His dynasty value, however, is at an all-time low with little chance of really rising too much at this point in his career.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Tyrone Tracy Jr. Aug 9 8:13pm CT
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Dynasty | Giants running back Eric Gray rushed for 52 yards on four carries and added four catches for another 46 yards, scoring twice in his preseason debut. Dynasty Analysis: It was quite the stat sheet stuffer for Gray, which is great news. The bad news, however, is the fact he played well behind Tyrone Tracy and didn't log a snap with the starters. Gray remains a solid sleeper in dynasty leagues but we need to see him log some time against better competition before feeling too confident.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Tank Dell Aug 9 8:13pm CT
Tank Dell

Dynasty | Texans receiver Tank Dell had one catch for 34 yards and a touchdown in Houston's preseason opener. Dynasty Analysis: Now seemingly healthy, Dell returned to his explosive self by scoring on the opening drive before calling it quits on the day. The Houston offense looks to be one of the more productive next season and Dell seems to be a relative bargain at the moment in dynasty leagues as many are focusing their attention on Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Dak Prescott Aug 9 7:20pm CT
Dak Prescott

The Dallas Cowboys announced on Friday that quarterback Dak Prescott (ankle) was given a precautionary day off at training camp on Friday due to ankles soreness. It should be nothing to worry about, but Prescott is also not expected to play in Sunday's preseason opener versus the Los Angeles Rams. The 31-year-old continues to manage occasional ankle soreness stemming from his broken ankle several years ago and also caused a stir back in early July when he was seen wearing a protective walking boot on his right foot while on vacation. Prescott continues to maintain that he'll be a full-go for the start of the regular season in Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns despite not getting a long-term contract extension as he heads into the final year of his current deal. He had the best year of his career in 2023 but has a lower floor and ceiling than most big-name QBs because of his lack of rushing numbers.

From RotoBaller

Christian McCaffrey Aug 9 6:03pm CT
Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) said his injured calf is feeling good and that he is taking his recovery slowly so he can be ready for the start of the regular season.

Fantasy Spin: McCaffrey did not need to play in the preseason in order to prepare for the season, so he probably will not return to the field until the week before the opener. He is a must-start option in all fantasy leagues, but players should keep an eye out in case he suffers a setback.

From TheHuddle

Brock Bowers Aug 9 6:00pm CT
Brock Bowers

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler writes that Las Vegas Raiders first-round rookie tight end Brock Bowers is going to be difficult to keep off the field in 2024. Bowers has been as advertised as a playmaker in training camp while also proving stouter as a run-blocker than anticipated. His versatility has been evident early on. Michael Mayer will be a factor at the position, but Bowers seems inevitable. "Brock is different," head coach Antonio Pierce said. "He's a tight end, because that's what he's labeled as, but he can play all over the field. ... He's even more special with the ball in his hands." The 21-year-old was easily the best TE prospect in this year's draft class and figures to have low-end TE1 value immediately in fantasy as a safety blanket for either QBs Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell. It's possible Bowers will be the team's second leading receiver behind Davante Adams.

From RotoBaller

C.J. Stroud Aug 9 5:50pm CT
C.J. Stroud

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and wide receiver Stefon Diggs are among the team's healthy starters that will play in the second preseason contest on Friday on the road against the hosting Pittsburgh Steelers. Stroud and the rest of the starting offense were held out of last week's Hall of Fame game against the Chicago Bears, but they'll get some action in the second preseason game. The 22-year-old Stroud and the rest of the starters that play on Friday will likely only play for a couple of drives, at the most, but it will give us our first look at his connection with new wideout Diggs in a game setting. Stroud's marvelous first NFL season in 2024 has vaulted him into midrange QB1 status in fantasy circles, especially after the addition of Diggs this offseason. Diggs, meanwhile, will see his fantasy stock fall in a new environment in which he'll have more competition for targets.

From RotoBaller

Cordarrelle Patterson Aug 9 5:40pm CT
Cordarrelle Patterson

The Pittsburgh Steelers activated running back/wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (undisclosed) from the Non-Football Injury list on Friday after he passed a physical. Patterson will now be able to join the rest of his teammates in practice at training camp. The 33-year-old followed Arthur Smith from Atlanta to Pittsburgh and will most likely serve as the team's kick returner on special teams. The former 29th overall pick by the Minnesota Vikings in 2013 out of Tennessee produced a career-high 695 rushing yards and eight touchdowns for the Falcons in 2022 but fell back to Earth big time in 2023, seeing 50 carries for only 181 yards. In Pittsburgh's backfield, he's third on the depth chart behind Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and will most likely be used sparingly as more of a gadget player when he's not returning kicks.

From RotoBaller

Shaquill Griffin Aug 9 5:40pm CT
Shaquill Griffin

The Minnesota Vikings acquired cornerback Nahshon Wright from the Dallas Cowboys on Friday in exchange for cornerback Andrew Booth, according to sources. The trade is pending physicals on both players. Wright was taken in the third round (99th overall) by Dallas in 2021 out of Oregon State and produced just 37 tackles (27 solo), an interception and five pass breakups in 32 games (three starts) in his first three years in the league. The 25-year-old defensive back figures to be a backup at cornerback in Minnesota behind Shaquill Griffin in his first year in the NFC North. Booth, a second-round selection (42nd overall) in 2022 out of Clemson, will also likely be a backup in his new home in Dallas. The 23-year-old has 20 tackles (19 solo) and one pass breakup in his first two years in the NFL in 23 games (two starts).

From RotoBaller

Bo Nix Aug 9 5:30pm CT
Bo Nix

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton said on Friday that rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix will start the team's second preseason game next week at home against the visiting Green Bay Packers. Jarrett Stidham, who opened training camp as the starter on the unofficial depth chart, is starting the preseason opener at Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. Stidham entered the offseason with a leg up in the QB competition this summer, mainly because of his experience last year in Payton's offense. It doesn't mean he'll be starting in the Week 1 season opener in Seattle against the Seahawks, though, and both Stidham and Nix have been splitting first-team reps in camp to this point. Stidham may be the safer game manager to begin the year for Denver, but the Broncos drafted Nix in the first round for a reason. Neither QB profiles as anything more than a low-end QB2 in superflex leagues this year.

From RotoBaller

Logan Thomas Aug 9 5:20pm CT
Logan Thomas

The San Francisco 49ers announced on Friday that they released tight end Logan Thomas. It remains to be seen if Thomas' release has anything to do with a hamstring injury that kept him out of some training camp practices in the last week. He was set to serve as depth at the tight end position behind All-Pro George Kittle after signing a one-year deal this offseason, but now he'll be looking for an opportunity elsewhere. Eric Saubert will now be the primary backup at the position in San Francisco for Kittle. Injuries have been the story of Thomas' career for the most part and have kept him from reaching his true potential. The 33-year-old did manage to play in 16 games in 2023 in his final year with Washington and caught 55 passes for 496 yards and four touchdowns.

From RotoBaller

Jarrett Stidham Aug 9 5:20pm CT
Jarrett Stidham

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton announced on Friday that quarterback Jarrett Stidham will start the team's preseason opener on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium against the hosting Indianapolis Colts. Rookie first-rounder Bo Nix will start the second preseason game next week in Denver versus the Green Bay Packers. Nix will also appear after Stidham leaves the game on Sunday, with Zach Wilson following Nix. Stidham opened training camp atop the team's unofficial depth chart and has had the edge to win the starting job to open the 2024 regular season, mainly because of his experience in Payton's offense from a year ago. Stidham and Nix have split first-team reps at camp, and if Nix outperforms Stidham in the preseason, there remains a chance that the rookie could start in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks. Whoever wins the job in Denver will be a low-end QB2 in superflex leagues, at best.

From RotoBaller

Brandon Aiyuk Aug 9 5:10pm CT
Brandon Aiyuk

The San Francisco 49ers have made a renewed effort in recent days to strike a long-term deal with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, according to sources. The situation is fluid and other teams, including the Pittsburgh Steelers, are still in the mix. But now a return to San Fran appears increasingly possible. Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz writes that Aiyuk had a sit-down meeting with head coach Kyle Shanahan and others in the organization where "some open and candid thoughts were expressed." There is optimism Aiyuk won't be dealt now after it looked like the two sides relationship was fractured beyond repair just a few days ago. The likeliest landing spots for Aiyuk are Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and both locations would most likely be bad news for his fantasy value in 2024. If the 26-year-old former first-rounder stays in the Bay Area, he'll be a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 target in fantasy.

From RotoBaller

Cordarrelle Patterson Aug 9 4:43pm CT
Cordarrelle Patterson

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Cordarrelle Patterson (hamstring) passed his physical Friday, Aug. 9, and has been activated from the Active/Non-Football Injury list.

From TheHuddle

Darnell Mooney Aug 9 4:13pm CT
Darnell Mooney

Dynasty | Falcons wide receiver Rondale Moore has sustained a knee injury and is out for the season. Dynasty Analysis: He's already been placed on IR, so this is official. Moore was hoping for a fresh start with the Falcons this season after never really breaking out in Arizona. Unfortunately, he fell behind Ray-Ray McCloud early in training camp, then went down with this injury in practice. It's a tough break for Moore, who is going to be a tough hold in a dynasty league. Meanwhile, Darnell Mooney and McCloud likely get a short-term bump as a result.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Marquis Haynes Aug 9 4:13pm CT
Marquis Haynes

Arizona Cardinals DE Marquis Haynes was released Friday, Aug. 9.

From TheHuddle

Genard Avery Aug 9 3:53pm CT
Genard Avery

Indianapolis Colts WR Ashton Dulin (hamstring), LB Jaylon Carlies (hip), DE Genard Avery (leg) and CB Clay Fields III (undisclosed) did not participate in practice Friday, Aug. 9.

From TheHuddle