Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell caught two of his four targets for 18 yards and a touchdown in the team's win against the Bengals. Mitchell played alongside all of Indy's starters, confirming that he will likely run with the ones for the Colts this season. With Josh Downs (ankle) sidelined with an injury, Mitchell has a shot at competing for the No. 2 receiver in the offense behind Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy managers should prioritize Mitchell as a high-upside WR3/4 this upcoming season.
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Indianapolis Colts tight end Kylen Granson caught two his three targets for 17 yards in the team's win against the Cincinnati Bengals. Granson's third and final target came from Anthony Richardson and was intercepted for a pick-six by Cincinnati. Granson played alongside all of Indy's starters in the first and second quarters, indicating that he locked up the job as TE1 for the Colts this season. While it's unlikely that the volume in the Colts' passing attack this season can propel Granson into fantasy relevance, fantasy managers can consider him a streaming option with a chance to be upgraded depending on how he is utilized.
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Indianapolis Colts running back Tyler Goodson ran the ball 13 times for 57 yards in the team's preseason win against the Bengals, leading the team in both categories. Goodson also caught two of his three targets for an additional ten yards in the air. For the third preseason game in a row, Goodson has come in as the second running back behind Jonathan Taylor and has seen impressive production in each game. While Trey Sermon (hamstring) is sidelined, Goodson appears to have locked up the RB2 role behind Taylor, making him a name to keep an eye on as a potential handcuff this season. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor this backfield as Goodson vies for the RB2 spot.
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Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman was the team leader in targets in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, but he only hauled in one of his four passes for six yards in the defeat. Hardman brought in a short six-yard reception from backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in a goal-to-go situation in the second quarter on Thursday against the Bears. After catching the game-winning pass for the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, Hardman is back to provide the club with some depth in the receiving corps, and there's not much reason to believe he won't be a part of the 53-man roster. The 26-year-old veteran deep threat isn't likely to play many snaps when KC's receiving corps is healthy, but he could see some more action in the early going with Marquise Brown (shoulder) currently sidelined.
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Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney made an appearance in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, reeling in two of his three passes for 26 yards in the loss. Toney's long gain of the night came on a 20-yard reception from backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in the first quarter on Thursday against Chicago. It was an important performance for Toney, who is fighting to keep his roster spot as a cut candidate on the Chiefs this summer after an utterly disastrous 2023 season. Even if the 25-year-old former first-round pick keeps his job in KC's receiving corps, he isn't likely to be anything more than a gadget player who is used sparingly in 2024.
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Kansas City Chiefs running back Deneric Prince flopped in his final chance to leave an impression in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, going backward for one yard on three rushing attempts and catching his lone pass for three yards in the defeat. Prince had a chance this summer to unseat incumbent veteran Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) as KC's No. 2 back as he deals with post-traumatic stress disorder, but Thursday's effort likely wasn't enough for him to seize the primary change-of-pace role behind workhorse starter Isiah Pacheco. The 24-year-old power back remains likely to make KC's roster as a third- or fourth-string RB, but undrafted rookie Carson Steele has turned heads during the preseason, and Keaontay Ingram also showed well on Thursday against the Bears.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Carson Steele impressed once again in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, rushing for 50 yards and a touchdown on just four carries in the defeat. Steele produced a 31-yard, tackle-breaking run to set up his own scoring plunge in the second quarter on Thursday against Chicago. The 21-year-old undrafted rookie out of UCLA has burst onto the scene with the Chiefs this summer, showcasing plenty of versatility and pass-blocking ability with his 228-pound frame. As KC's backfield hierarchy behind workhorse starter Isiah Pacheco remains murky, Steele has likely done enough during the preseason to make the 53-man roster as a fullback even if the team decides to employ four true RBs.
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Chicago Bears wide receiver/running back Velus Jones Jr. led the team in rushing in the team's preseason finale against Kansas City. The converted wide receiver is getting more looks in the backfield during training camp. He made the most of his opportunities Thursday night, tallying 13 carries for 111 yards. That included a 39-yard touchdown late in the third quarter. Jones also caught two passes for 11 yards. The 2022 third-round pick has yet to make an impact at wide receiver, so the move may be enough for him to make the final roster. He also projects to be Chicago's primary kick returner in 2024.
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From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Tyler Scott caught six passes for 99 yards in the team's 34-21 preseason win over the Kansas City Chiefs. He also rushed once for 17 yards to place the Bears in the red zone for an eventual touchdown. With several wide receivers resting and others injured, Scott played well into the second half. He still has the inside track to be fourth on the wide receiver depth chart behind DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and rookie first-round pick Rome Odunze. The 2023 fourth-round pick caught 17 passes for 168 yards in his rookie season.
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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Logan Woodside had a decent showing in Thursday's preseason loss to the Colts. The signal-caller went 16-for-21 passing for 98 yards. He also fumbled, although he made up for it by connecting with Jermaine Burton late in the contest for a touchdown. Of course, Joe Burrow is the No. 1 option in Cincinnati. However, with Burrow having issues staying healthy over the years, there's a chance Cincinnati may rely on their backups at some point in the season. While Jake Browning will likely keep his spot behind Burrow on the depth chart, Woodside may have done enough to secure a place on the roster entering Week 1. With that said, his value in both redraft and dynasty formats can't get much lower, especially while Burrow and Browning are healthy.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals running back Trayveon Williams led the way in the preseason loss to the Indianapolis Colts. He didn't do much in Cincinnati's first two exhibitions. However, the 26-year-old finished Thursday's contest by totaling a game-high 66 rushing yards off 11 carries, adding five catches for 11 yards. Williams, the No. 182 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, has spent his entire career with the Bengals. Yet, he's been limited to only 62 touches in 40 career games. With Williams behind Zack Moss and Chase Brown on the depth chart, his workload isn't expected to increase this season. As a result, managers won't look in his direction in most fantasy drafts, although there is streaming potential if Moss or Brown get hurt. The Bengals will begin the 2024-25 campaign with a Week 1 visit from the New England Patriots.
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Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent threw for 57 yards on three completions and ran for a five-yard touchdown in the team's preseason finale Thursday night. The rushing score was set up by a 44-yard reception to wide receiver Nsimba Webster a few plays prior. Bagent played one more drive which resulted in a turnover on downs before getting the rest of the night off. The undrafted second-year quarterback is entrenched as the backup to Caleb Williams on Chicago's depth chart. He looks like one of the better backups in the NFL, picking up two wins in four starts as a rookie.
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Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Jermaine Burton had a game-high four catches for 56 yards in Thursday's preseason loss to the Colts. The 2024 No. 80 overall pick struggled in the Bengals' second preseason contest. However, on Thursday, he turned it around to end his preseason with two trips to the end zone. The Bengals enter the 2024-25 campaign with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as the top wideouts on the depth chart. Yet, the No. 3 spot is far from a lock. While Andre Iosivas and Trenton Irwin could begin the season by getting more attention from Joe Burrow, Burton may eventually surpass them in production (and snaps). Fantasy managers should view the rookie as a late draft stash, especially since there is a good chance he'll be a waiver target at some point during the year.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals running back Trayveon Williams led the way in the preseason loss to the Indianapolis Colts. He didn't do much in Cincinnati's first two exhibitions. However, the 26-year-old finished Thursday's contest by totaling a game-high 66 rushing yards off 11 carries. Williams, the No. 182 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, has spent his entire career with the Bengals. Yet, he's been limited to only 62 touches in 40 career games. With Williams behind Zach Moss and Chase Brown on the depth chart, his workload isn't expected to increase this season. As a result, managers won't look in his direction in most fantasy drafts, although there is streaming potential if Moss or Brown get hurt. The Bengals will begin the 2024-25 campaign with a Week 1 visit from the New England Patriots.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders started working wide receiver Kazmeir Allen in at running back at training camp last week, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury mentioned to reporters that Allen's "explosive" traits remind him of a Deebo Samuel-type player. The Commanders are looking for a way to keep Allen as they head into the 2024 regular season. The 24-year-old went undrafted last year out of UCLA and spent most of 2023 on Washington's practice squad. He's still well off the fantasy radar in all formats, but Allen is a name to file away, especially after the Commanders traded Jahan Dotson to the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday. Washington is looking for young players to step up on offense, but it remains to be seen if Allen will be one of those guys. During the preseason, he has four carries for 15 yards and a fumble while also catching one pass for a 12-yard gain.
From RotoBaller
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Packers Wire's Zach Kruse believes that Green Bay Packers running back Emanuel Wilson is likely to make the 53-man roster out of training camp with rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) still sidelined and veteran AJ Dillon (neck) also dealing with a stinger. Wilson, who went undrafted last year out of Fort Valley State, saw only 14 carries in seven games in his rookie season for 85 rushing yards. He added four receptions for 23 yards through the air. If both Lloyd and Dillon are not ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener, there's a chance that the 25-year-old will open the year as Josh Jacobs' primary backup. Wilson is mostly a between-the-tackles weapon because of his power and burst, but don't sleep on his skills as a pass-catcher. For now, Wilson is probably only worth stashing in dynasty/keeper leagues, but that could change early in 2024, depending on the health of both Lloyd and Dillon.
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New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (foot) made his return to team drills at training camp practice on Thursday. It's the first time that Johnson has taken part in team drills since being activated from the Physically Unable to Perform list on Tuesday. The 27-year-old wasn't able to practice with the rest of his teammates for the start of training camp at the end of July after having surgery on his foot back in January. He's unlikely to play in the team's preseason finale on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans but should be ready to go for Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers on Sept. 8, barring a setback in practices of the next two weeks. Johnson will be on the TE2/3 borderline after taking a step back in 2023 with 37 receptions for 368 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games (11 starts) in his fourth year in New Orleans. Do-it-all offensive weapon Taysom Hill will likely continue to be a thorn in Johnson's side.
From RotoBaller