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RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 6

Player Notes
Dak Prescott Oct 11 9:50am CT
Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott remains a top fantasy option ahead of Week 6's matchup with the Detroit Lions. Prescott is currently third in the league in passing yards per game behind just Geno Smith and Jordan Love and should continue to put up big numbers against Detroit's softer secondary. The Lions' defense has been a pass-funnel defense all season long, as they rank third in run defense but sixteenth in pass defense. Their defensive weaknesses match up well with Dallas' offensive strengths, creating a potential shootout with many fantasy points to go around. Prescott should benefit, as he grades as one of the top quarterback options for Week 6.

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Rico Dowdle Oct 11 9:50am CT
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Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle has asserted himself as the workhorse running back over the past two weeks, most recently taking 65% of rushing attempts in Week 5's win. Although Dowdle should see a heavy workload in Week 6 against Detroit, the matchup is one of the toughest on paper. Detroit has allowed the seventh-least fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, likely making Dowdle a touchdown-dependent option this week. With that being said, there will likely be a lot of touchdowns in this game given that it has the highest projected point total of any game this week (52). Dowdle grades as a low-end RB2 option this week.

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Ezekiel Elliott Oct 11 9:50am CT
Ezekiel Elliott

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has seen his role diminish in the past few weeks. Elliott has taken a clear step back to Rico Dowdle, who had 22 touches compared to his six last week. This week, Dallas draws a tough running back matchup against Detroit. With Elliott's diminished workload along with a tough matchup, he should not be started anywhere this week. Elliott can be safely dropped in most formats, as he now serves as Dowdle's handcuff.

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Andy Dalton Oct 11 8:50am CT
Andy Dalton

Carolina Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton revived the offense for a couple of weeks until they ran into the Chicago Bears defense in Week 5. Dalton watched the end of the game from the bench as Bryce Young returned under center for a bit in the fourth quarter. In Week 6, the Panthers will take on the Atlanta Falcons who have some holes in their defense but haven't given up too many big fantasy outings to opposing quarterbacks. They're averaging 17.3 fantasy points allowed per game which slots them right in the middle of the pack. The Falcons offense, led by Kirk Cousins, will likely come out firing against a weak Panthers defense, so this game could turn into a huge passing effort from Dalton as long as he plays the entire contest. With a banged-up receiving corps, however, it doesn't seem too likely that Dalton will register a big week.

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Jonathan Owens Oct 11 8:40am CT
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Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker (concussion) has officially been ruled out for the team's Week 6 contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. Brisker has been one of the leaders of a very good defensive unit that has kept the Bears in striking distance every game. They enter this week as a top-four unit in terms of fantasy points scored so far this season. Elijah Hicks and Jonathan Owens are the next two safeties on the depth chart and Hicks will likely be the one to take over for Brisker in this game. The Jaguars finally bounced back with a win in Week 5, but Trevor Lawrence has proven to slip up more often than not, so this defense has serious potential.

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Chuba Hubbard Oct 11 8:20am CT
Chuba Hubbard

Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard has enjoyed some big fantasy success over the last few weeks since Andy Dalton took over as the starting quarterback. He's registered finishes of RB7, RB7, and RB5 in half-PPR formats across those weeks. After a brief offensive improvement to win their first game, the offense has slowly returned to the not-so-great version we've seen before. Now, Hubbard goes up against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6 who are the fifth-toughest defense against opposing running backs. They're only allowing an average of 15.9 fantasy points per game to backfields. Hubbard remains the best starting option from the Panthers' offense, but his upside is limited if the Falcons can get out to an early lead.

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Zamir White Oct 11 8:00am CT
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Russell Wilson Oct 11 8:00am CT
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Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (calf) technically won the starting job in training camp, but hasn't been able to take the field due to a calf injury. In fact, the Steelers were ready to trot him out as the starter in Week 1 until the calf flared up a few days before kickoff, allowing Justin Fields to step in earlier than expected. Since then, Wilson has dressed as the emergency QB and has slowly worked his way to taking second-team reps. Head coach Mike Tomlin didn't explicitly say that Wilson would eventually take his spot back, but he said that "the door is ajar" in terms of a potential QB swap. While Fields has looked much improved from his days with the Chicago Bears, the passing game leaves a lot to be desired. Wilson may get the chance to see if he can breathe new life into it.

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Jakobi Meyers Oct 11 7:50am CT
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Las Vegas Raiders wide receivers Davante Adams (hamstring) and Jakobi Meyers (ankle) both registered DNPs for Thursday's injury report. Reports last week suggested that Adams would be healthy by this week, but as the week has progressed, he's increasingly been unlikely to play in Week 6's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is all while the team is looking for trade partners for the superstar receiver even though the trade market looks like it's going cold due to their asking price. Meyers, on the other hand, reportedly "seemed fine" and missing practice was more to make sure he's healthy by game time. Fantasy managers should still monitor his status leading up to the mid-afternoon kickoff on Sunday.

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Curtis Samuel Oct 11 5:10am CT
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Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel (foot/toe) was limited in Thursday's practice. Despite being limited, he was back on the field after missing Wednesday's practice. Samuel has been dealing with a foot/toe injury from a turf toe issue that has lingered since the preseason. This adds to a Bills injury report already crowded at the wide receiver position, with Khalil Shakir (ankle) and Mack Hollins (shoulder) also dealing with injuries. Samuel will have a few more chances to log a full practice to avoid an injury designation ahead of Monday's matchup with the New York Jets. The 28-year-old caught just one pass for zero yards in last week's loss to the Texans, despite his increased playing time. Samuel has been a non-factor in fantasy so far and is a dart throw (ranked WR70 at RotoBaller) at best in a tough matchup against the Jets in Week 6.

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Justin Herbert Oct 11 5:00am CT
Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) was limited in Thursday's practice session. He has now been limited in back-to-back practices ahead of the week's final session on Friday. Although it is not clear if Herbert will be a full participant tomorrow, there is a belief that he has made progress with his ankle. Herbert looked clearly hobbled in the team's last game against the Kansas City Chiefs, where he threw for just 179 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers are coming off a bye week, giving Herbert more time to recover before a divisional matchup with the Denver Broncos. Herbert is mainly an option in 2QB and Superflex leagues in Week 6, as he's ranked QB23 out of all quarterbacks in the latest RotoBaller rankings.

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Gus Edwards Oct 11 4:50am CT
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Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards (ankle) did not participate in Thursday's session. This makes the second straight missed practice for Edwards, who was not on the field Wednesday either. If he does not practice on Friday, it is unlikely he will suit up for the Week 6 matchup against the Denver Broncos. Edwards' last action was before the bye week when he ran the ball six times for 19 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. Edwards is rostered in 33% of leagues and is not on the fantasy radar, even if he is healthy for Week 6. Kimani Vidal should see an uptick in snaps if Edwards is ruled out in Week 6.

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Rashod Bateman Oct 11 4:50am CT
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Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman (groin) was limited in Thursday's practice. This was Bateman's first practice of the week after missing Wednesday's session. He is battling a groin injury heading into Sunday's matchup with the Washington Commanders. The Commanders' secondary is ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. Bateman is coming off his best performance of the season, receiving eight targets and catching four of them for 58 yards and a touchdown. If active, Bateman will look to capitalize on a favorable matchup and build upon that success if the groin injury doesn't hold him back. Bateman is ranked RotoBaller's WR53, making him a borderline flex play in Week 6.

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George Kittle Oct 11 4:30am CT
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San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle amplified his dominance at the fantasy tight end position during a 36-24 Thursday night victory in Seattle. The two-time First-team All-Pro caught five of six targets for 58 yards and two touchdowns. Kittle now has five touchdowns in his last four games and is averaging 14.5 points per game in Yahoo default scoring, while second place is held by Dallas Goedert and Brock Bowers at 10.5. That's the widest margin between two consecutively ranked players in the entire tight-end landscape. Kittle has had similar stretches during his career and he's always been streaky, so fantasy managers who have been propelled by Kittle to early winning records may consider selling high to win-desperate teams. Kittle and the Niners will face the Kansas City Chiefs at home in a Week 7 Super Bowl LVIII rematch.

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Jauan Jennings Oct 11 3:50am CT
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San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings contributed modestly to a 36-24 victory over the Seahawks in Seattle on Thursday night. The former seventh-rounder caught three of five targets for 27 yards. While conventional wisdom held that Jennings would fade into the background after his monster performance in Week 3 upon the return of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. from injury, he has maintained more relevance in San Francisco's offense than expected. For example, Jennings has out-targeted Brandon Aiyuk in three of the past four weeks and has only one fewer reception than Deebo Samuel Sr. in the past three weeks. Still, Jennings will be a touchdown-dependent low-floor FLEX when the 49ers have their main pass-catchers healthy, including in a Week 7 rematch of Super Bowl LVIII against the Kansas City Chiefs at home.

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Deebo Samuel Oct 11 3:10am CT
Deebo Samuel

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. popped off in a 36-24 victory over the Seahawks in Seattle on Thursday night. The former South Carolina Gamecock caught three of five targets for a team-high 103 yards and a touchdown. He also took four carries for 15 yards rushing. The first touchdown of Week 7 came on a 76-yard catch-and-run when a Seattle defensive back misread the trajectory of the ball, leaving Samuel Sr. to easily outrun a linebacker to the end zone. Samuel Sr. has now exceeded projections in three of five games in 2024. He'll have some extra time to enjoy the win before a Week 7 marquee matchup at home versus the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Brandon Aiyuk Oct 11 2:50am CT
Brandon Aiyuk

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk fell back into his early-season fantasy slump during a 36-24 victory over the Seahawks in Seattle. He finished with two catches on four targets for 37 yards, and one other reception -- for a good chunk of yardage -- called back on a holding penalty. He is still searching for his first touchdown of 2024. Coming into the game as a consensus WR1, Aiyuk has now come in under projections in five of six contests. Quarterback Brock Purdy spread the ball around in this one, as Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings had six, five, and five targets respectively. With Aiyuk's underperformance stretching into October, Jennings' out-targeting of Aiyuk in the past three of four weeks should be acknowledged -- still, sell-low at your own risk. Aiyuk is fully capable of burning impatient fantasy players. San Francisco will need Aiyuk in a Week 7 Super Bowl LVIII rematch at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Tyler Lockett Oct 11 1:53am CT
Tyler Lockett

Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett had four receptions (on eight targets) for 65 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 against the San Francisco 49ers.

Fantasy Spin: This was supposed to be the year that Jaxon Smith-Njigba supplanted Lockett as the No. 2 receiver in Seattle and made the veteran obsolete. So far, that has not happened. Lockett has topped 60 yards four times in six games, and he has a 26-339-1 line on the season. He's not what he was at his peak, but Lockett remains a decent WR4/WR5 type that can be plugged into your lineup as needed.

From TheHuddle

Isaac Guerendo Oct 11 1:30am CT
Isaac Guerendo

San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Isaac Guerendo filled in nicely for starter Jordan Mason in a Week 6 36-24 victory versus the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mason left the game with an apparent shoulder injury in the second quarter and came back in for one carry just after the half, never to return. Guerendo did most of the replacement work, finishing with 10 carries for 99 yards. He was not targeted in the passing game. Though Guerendo looked competent overall, it's worth noting that the bulk of his yardage came on a fourth-quarter 76-yard run that salted the game away for San Francisco. He may have scored on the play but appeared to pull up at the last second to allow the 49ers to work more clock. Guerendo will be a top waiver target heading into Week 7 against Kansas City if Mason is sidelined, but it's worth noting that fourth-year back Patrick Taylor Jr. was involved as well, with five carries and a target of his own in Mason's absence.

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Geno Smith Oct 11 1:13am CT
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Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith completed 30 of his 52 passes for 312 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in a Week 6 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

Fantasy Spin: Outside of his two interceptions, both of which came on poor decisions, Smith played well against the 49ers. He came within inches of connecting with DK Metcalf for a touchdown before halftime, and then had a TD to Metcalf called back on an illegal motion penalty. Unfortunately, close doesn't cut it for fantasy owners, and Smith, despite attempting more than 250 passes this season, has thrown just one TD in each of his six games. That's QB2 production. While his high usage makes him someone you can roll the dice on as needed, thus far he isn't delivering.

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