Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill is expected to have a considerable role in the team's red zone rushing game plan, as per Luke Johnson of NOLA.com. "Game speed is obviously different than practice speed, but the Saints' improved run game looks like it's applied to the red zone as well...and though we didn't see it Friday, Hill should continue to have a huge role in that area of the field." Hill is one of the more versatile NFL athletes in recent history and though he is listed as a tight end, it appears he aims to take a good deal of work from the backfield this season. It will be interesting to see exactly how Klint Kubiak will deploy him in 2024, but as he is a member of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, it wouldn't be surprising to see Hill used innovatively. He is Yahoo!'s TE19 in drafts and could provide great value if he has a rushing load like last year. The 34-year-old would become a more intriguing fantasy asset should he garner positional eligibility at running back.
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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Josh Johnson finished off the preseason on Saturday with a seemingly tight grip on the backup role to Lamar Jackson. The veteran ended their blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers with 71 yards and a touchdown while throwing five completions out of seven attempts. Despite playing just the first three possessions, Johnson led the QBs in efficiency, yards, and rating, and was the only one to lead the team to a score. Throughout the preseason he totalled 253 yards and two touchdowns while throwing 20-for-30. Any of the quarterbacks that took the field for the Ravens this preseason aren't likely to see the field unless something happens to Lamar Jackson, but for fantasy managers relying on Jackson, it's nice to have a backup plan.
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Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Ainias Smith caught six of nine targets for 36 yards during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The fifth-round rookie finishes the preseason on a high note, leading the Eagles receiving corps in targets by a four-target gap from the next closest receiver. Smith only caught eight balls in total this preseason and failed to reach 50 yards total in receiving. With Jahan Dotson recently being acquired this past week and names like veteran John Ross having strong preseason performances, it will be tough for the 23-year-old to make the final roster. Smith will likely land on the practice squad after the team makes their final cuts.
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Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Parris Campbell caught both of his targets for 34 yards during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The former Indianapolis Colt finished a quiet preseason as a starter on Saturday but faces the chance of not making the final roster heading into the regular season. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Jahan Dotson are locks to make the final roster, but Campbell, rookie Ainias Smith, John Ross, and Kendall Minton are all fighting for the final few spots with none making a strong case for themselves over the others. The 27-year-old will likely latch on to the practice squad or be scooped up by a wide receiver-needy squad heading into Week 1 of the regular season.
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Philadelphia Eagles running back Tyrion Davis-Price took 12 carries for 56 yards and lost a fumble during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The 23-year-old was given the start on Saturday but has an uphill battle to make the roster with Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Gainwell, and rookie Will Shipley getting a rest to end the preseason. Davis-Price committing a turnover in his lone start likely didn't help his chances of making the final roster. The former San Francisco 49er will likely land on the practice squad if he is cut in the coming weeks leaving the trio of Barkley, Gainwell, and Shipley as locks to make the Week 1 roster.
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Carolina Panthers wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette (ankle) left the team's preseason finale against the Buffalo Bills early on Saturday after landing awkwardly completing a catch in the second quarter. The 24-year-old hauled in 2-of-3 targets for 11 yards while contributing 27 yards on two punt returns and a field-flipping 46 yards on his lone kick return. Smith-Marsette was productive before he picked up the injury and is expected to be the team's returner this upcoming season. Barring the severity of his ankle issue, that could still be the case. It's a bit early to tell how impactful the NFL's new kickoff rules will be come the start of the regular season. However, fantasy managers may want to keep the Iowa product on their radar as a sneaky option, depending on how your league values return yards. His Yahoo! ADP is far down enough that he'd be best suited as a prospective waiver-wire add.
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Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Kenny Pickett completed six of nine passes for 58 yards during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The former first-round pick played the entire first half and ended the preseason with his third-straight underwhelming performance. While Pickett has started all three preseason games and has not played with any of the starting receiving corps, he has done little to nothing. While third-string quarterback Tanner McKee had a poor performance as well Saturday, he has looked much better this preseason and has made a strong case to be the No. 2 option behind starter Jalen Hurts. Because the Eagles made a trade for him this offseason, the 26-year-old will likely be the backup come Week 1. With that said, McKee is a name to watch this upcoming week.
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Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee completed 13 of 21 passes for 115 yards, threw one interception, and lost a fumble during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The 24-year-old had been making a strong case to challenge Kenny Pickett for the No. 2 spot but ended the preseason on a low note with two turnovers. With that said, McKee still looked better as a passer than Pickett Saturday proving that he can push the ball downfield while the offense was inept with Pickett. The former Steelers starter will likely end up as the top backup to starter Jalen Hurts come Week 1. Still, McKee should have safely secured himself the emergency quarterback role with his overall strong preseason totals.
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Buffalo Bills wide receiver Justin Shorter caught two of his three targets for 15 yards in Saturday afternoon's preseason loss to the visiting Carolina Panthers at Highmark Stadium. Shorter's long gain of the day came on a 10-yard reception in Saturday's defeat to the Panthers. The 24-year-old wideout was a fifth-round pick out of Florida by the Bills in the 2023 NFL Draft, but he didn't see the field in any capacity during his rookie season in Orchard Park a year ago. Shorter still has a chance to make Buffalo's final 53-man roster as depth for the receiving corps, but he'll probably end up being a healthy inactive on gamedays more often than not while the team is healthy.
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Dallas Cowboys running back Royce Freeman ran the ball eight times in the Cowboys preseason finale, gaining 35 yards. He was targeted once in the passing game, making a catch for a seven yard gain. Freeman's usage in the preseason essentially locked up his role as the third running back on the depth chart, behind Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. Freeman would need injuries ahead of him in order to develop real fantasy relevance, but he's worth keeping an eye on just in case.
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Dallas Cowboys rookie wide receiver Ryan Flournoy scored another preseason touchdown in the Cowboys preseason finale against the Los Angeles Chargers. Flournoy was targeted three times, making all three catches for 30 yards. He also added four yards on the ground with his lone rushing attempt. The sixth-round rookie's touchdown came in the second quarter on an 11-yard pass from Trey Lance. Flournoy had a fairly impressive preseason, but he's likely still not in a starting role once the regular season begins.
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Los Angeles Chargers running back Jaret Patterson led the team in carries for the third straight preseason game. In the finale, Patterson carried the ball six times, gaining 27 yards. He added one catch on two targets for an additional 12 yards. Patterson is third at best on the Chargers depth chart behind Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, but his usage in the preseason shows that he may indeed be part of the team's plans on offense, at least as a depth piece.
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Buffalo Bills wide receiver KJ Hamler saw a variety of usage in Saturday afternoon's preseason loss to the visiting Carolina Panthers at Highmark Stadium, catching each of his three passes for 11 yards and rushing three times for 21 yards and a touchdown in the defeat. Hamler, a wideout by trade, lined up as a running back before plowing his way past the end zone for a short Bills score in fourth quarter on Saturday against Carolina. After Hamler missed all of 2023 as he stepped away from football altogether for treatment of a heart issue, it was nice to see the 25-year-old former second-round pick make a significant impact in the preseason finale. There's a chance Buffalo keeps him on the 53-man roster as depth for the receiving corps following this solid performance, but Hamler is unlikely to see many opportunities in 2024.
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Dallas Cowboys running back Deuce Vaughn ran the ball nine times in the Cowboys preseason finale, gaining 53 yards. He was targeted twice in the passing game but was unable to come up with either catch. Vaughn ended up with the most carries among Cowboys running backs, although quarterback Trey Lance led the team with 11. Vaughn is buried on the depth chart and likely ticketed for a special teams role, but he's shown some rushing ability in case injuries strike the top Cowboys runners.
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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Trey Lance struggled in a preseason loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday. Lance attempted 49 passes, completing 33 of them for 323 yards, one touchdown, and five interceptions. He added 11 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown, leading the team in both carries and rushing yards. It was a strong game on the ground for Lance, but the passing game wasn't clicking, as the Chargers defense was all over Lance for the five picks and also two fumbles. If Lance makes the team as the third quarterback, he'll be behind starter Dak Prescott and backup Cooper Rush.
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Buffalo Bills running back Darrynton Evans made his case to make the final roster in Saturday afternoon's preseason defeat to the visiting Carolina Panthers in Orchard Park, tying for the team lead in receiving with three catches for 28 yards and a touchdown while adding 15 rushing yards on three carries. Evans certainly put together a nice day on Saturday against the Panthers, shedding a tackle and high-stepping his way across the end zone to give the Bills a lead in the second quarter, but his performance was overshadowed by undrafted rookie Frank Gore Jr., who also scored but produced a whopping 101 yards. Evans, 26, is not as likely to make Buffalo's 53-man roster following Gore's standout showing, and he probably wouldn't be any greater than the No. 4 back on the depth chart even if he does stick around.
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Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Derius Davis touched the ball once in the Chargers preseason finale, but he made it count. Davis took the ball up the sideline for a 70-yard touchdown run, breaking tackles and avoiding defenders along the way. It was an impressive run for the former fourth round pick, but he appears to be headed for a special teams role as a returner who may occasionally fill in on offense.
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Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Simi Fehoko scored a long touchdown in a preseason win against the Dallas Cowboys. Fehoko was targeted twice, making two catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. His score came on a huge throw from Easton Stick that ended up as a 78-yard touchdown pass. Fehoko dominated the Chargers passing game in preseason play, but he's not expected to see much time on offense once the regular season begins.
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Buffalo Bills running back Frank Gore Jr. made a statement in Saturday afternoon's preseason loss to the visiting Carolina Panthers at Highmark Stadium, rumbling for 101 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. He caught one of his two targets for no gain. It was one chunk pickup after another on Saturday against Carolina for Gore, who plowed his way into the end zone for a Bills score in the third quarter. None of James Cook, Ray Davis, or Ty Johnson made an appearance in the preseason finale, so it was left to Gore and Darrynton Evans to compete for a spot on Buffalo's roster, with the former passing his final test with flying colors. While Evans hit paydirt through the air, Gore outproduced him in the yardage department in a big way, likely giving the 2024 undrafted rookie a leg up in the competition over the incumbent veteran.
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Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Easton Stick played all of Saturday's preseason finale against the Dallas Cowboys, leading the Bolts to a 26-19 win. Stick attempted 29 passes, completing 12 for 187 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He added 17 yards on the ground on four carries and took two sacks. Most of Stick's production came on a 78-yard touchdown pass to Simi Fehoko in the second quarter. Stick is the likely QB2 for the Chargers, a position that could be critical this season with starter Justin Herbert dealing with a foot injury that could linger into the season.
From RotoBaller