RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Kansas City Chiefs tight ends Noah Gray and Jared Wiley "can be interchangeable within the offense as the second tight end in some formations," according to Nate Taylor of The Athletic. Gray had an impressive campaign in 2023, and although Wiley hasn't necessarily stood out in his first training camp, it sounds like the coaching staff trusts him enough to get on the field over Gray at times. Of course, the exact depth chart doesn't matter much for fantasy football purposes since Travis Kelce is the clear-cut alpha tight end and remains the only Chiefs tight end worth rostering in redraft leagues. Even if Kelce misses time in 2024, the fact that Gray and Wiley are interchangeable would make it difficult to trust either in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Nate Taylor of The Athletic projects that Kansas City Chiefs rookie Carson Steele will make the initial 53-man roster as a depth running back or primary fullback. The Chiefs seem to have hit the jackpot with Steele, an undrafted free agent whose physicality is nearly unparalleled at the running back position. Kansas City still lists him as a fullback, but he never played there at UCLA. Furthermore, Taylor projects the Chiefs to release all running backs not named Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, meaning Steele would function as the de facto RB3 in Kansas City. Regardless of the exact depth chart dynamic, Chiefs fans and fantasy football managers alike have to be very excited about what they've seen from Steele this preseason. He's an intriguing speculative addition in dynasty formats.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett (shoulder) exited Sunday's preseason finale after taking a sack. He finished his day having completed two of four passes for 19 yards through the air. Drake Maye replaced Brissett and played the remainder of the first half. The Patriots are one of the few NFL teams still holding a competition for their starting quarterback job, and it remains to be seen whether Brissett's injury and Maye's extra reps Sunday could swing the pendulum in the rookie's favor. Regardless of who wins the job coming out of training camp, neither quarterback will have much appeal in redraft fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos are expected to carry backup quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham on their initial 53-man roster, according to comments from head coach Sean Payton following Sunday's preseason finale. In discussing the quarterback room of Wilson, Stidham, and rookie Bo Nix, Payton said, "I see the three of them making it." Nix has already been declared the Broncos' starter, and it sounds like both Wilson and Stidham will keep their jobs, too. It's unclear which signal-caller will be given the backup designation and which quarterback will serve as the emergency third-stringer on gameday, though it's worth noting that Stidham appeared to have the edge on Wilson prior to Sunday's preseason contest. Regardless of the exact depth chart, Nix is the only Broncos quarterback worth considering for a roster spot in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints receiver A.T. Perry hauled in two receptions for 67 yards in Sunday's preseason loss to the Tennessee Titans. The second-year receiver flashed as a deep threat as a rookie and continued his impressive run of big plays this preseason. He projects as a starter in three-receiver sets with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed and is an intriguing late-round stash.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints receiver Equanimeous St. Brown had an impressive preseason showing in Sunday's loss to the Tennessee Titans as he fights for a spot on the initial 53-man roster. St. Brown hauled in three catches for 40 yards and a score in the loss, including an impressive over-the-shoulder touchdown grab from rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler. The seventh-year pro hopes to make the roster over the likes of Cedrick Wilson, Bub Means, and Mason Tipton.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson started in Sunday's preseason finale, marking his first preseason action of the year after opening training camp on the PUP list. The veteran tight end was one of the lone Saints starters to suit up for the game, and his action was short-lived as he was just targeted once. Nonetheless, it was encouraging to see Johnson on the field after missing a significant portion of training camp. He will be ready to roll in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints quarterback Jake Haener started in Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans. The second-year pro completed 8-of-17 passes for 87 yards while also gaining six yards on a scramble. Haener was outplayed by rookie Spencer Rattler in a pivotal game for the backup quarterback job. The backup will likely be named this week with roster cutdown day on Tuesday. Haener finished the preseason with 270 passing yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler was impressive in the team's final preseason game. Rattler completed 7-of-13 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown while also scrambling twice for 13 yards. The 23-year-old had two highlight-reel passes, showcasing the ability to be a future NFL starter. It remains to be seen if he has won the backup job over second-year quarterback Jake Haener, although he outplayed his competition on Sunday. Rattler remains an intriguing dynasty league stash, given that incumbent quarterback Derek Carr appears to be on a short leash along with head coach Dennis Allen.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (shoulder) is set to return to practice on Monday, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. This is great news considering Pearsall has been sidelined throughout the preseason due to a lingering shoulder issue. However, there is still plenty of time for Pearsall to get ready to play before the season opener. The saga of Brandon Aiyuk is still ongoing, which makes Pearsall's value difficult to determine. He's unlikely to have great fantasy value right away, but is worth a look in deep leagues. Pearsall has a bright future, so he's worth the investment in dynasty formats or keeper leagues.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) is uncertain to be available for the season opener, according to head coach Shane Steichen. Downs has been sidelined since he suffered a high-ankle sprain in early August. The 23-year-old appears to be making progress, but he still has more work to do before being ready to play. The absence of Downs is a blow to this offense considering he registered 68 receptions for 772 yards in 17 games last season. If he misses time, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell would both see a boost in targets and fantasy value early in the season.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos defensive back Damarri Mathis (ankle) was removed early during Sunday's preseason finale against the Arizona Cardinals. Mathis had to be carted off the field after suffering what looked to be a bad ankle injury during Sunday's game. The assumption is that the Broncos will have Mathis undergo further testing to determine the severity of the injury. At the moment, it's uncertain if Mathis will be ready to play in the regular season opener. That being said, Riley Moss would likely be the next man up to start alongside Patrick Surtain, assuming Mathis misses time. The absence of Mathis would certainly be a hit to the Broncos secondary.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints kicker Charlie Smyth (groin) didn't suit up during Sunday's preseason contest against the Tennessee Titans. The rookie kicker has been dealing with an ongoing groin issue since Friday. Head coach Dennis Allen said that the team wanted to play it safe and hold Smyth out of this game. In his absence, Blake Grupe handled the kicking duties during the preseason finale. He connected on both his field goal attempts and made all three of his extra point attempts as well. It remains to be seen which kicker the team decides to ride with into the regular season. Grupe is probably the favorite after making 30-of-37 field goal attempts and all 40 extra point attempts during his rookie season with the Saints in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Damiere Byrd has been released by the organization on Sunday. The veteran latched onto the Bills in August after being cut by the Washington Commanders. Byrd spent most of his 2023 campaign on the practice squad with the Atlanta Falcons. He caught his lone pass of the preseason for 20 yards during Saturday's game. His best year came with the New England Patriots in 2020 when he caught 47 passes for 604 yards and one touchdown in 16 games. Since then, Byrd hasn't done anything noteworthy, so now he'll look to catch on elsewhere as depth.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Dolphins have released quarterback Mike White. Dynasty Analysis: White was signed to a two-year contract worth $8 million last season but has seemingly lost the backup job to Skylar Thompson this off-season. He had some nice moments with the Jets in the past but obviously didn't do enough to comfort the Dolphins in the event Tua Tagovailoa was to get injured again. He'll hit the free agent pool and likely resurface as a backup somewhere but the shine is clearly off White and he doesn't belong on dynasty rosters at the moment.
Dynasty | The Dolphins have released quarterback Mike White, paving the way for Skylar Thompson to be the backup quarterback. Dynasty Analysis: This is interesting as White was signed to a two-year contract worth $8 million last season. Thompson outplayed him in training camp and Miami obviously feels better about Thompson under center should Tua Tagovailoa suffer an injury or miss time. Thompson isn't an option in conventional dynasty leagues but would be worth a look in very deep 2QB formats.
Dynasty | The Jaguars have released wide receiver Denzel Mims. Dynasty Analysis: The former Jets second round pick was trying to carve out a roster spot but it wasn't meant to be in Jacksonville. Still just 25, Mims could latch on elsewhere but this is a bad sign for his career. After failing to impress with the Jets over three seasons and in short time with the Lions and Steelers as well, Mims is looking for his fourth team in less than a year. He's well off the dynasty radar at this point and has no business on a dynasty roster.
Dynasty | Browns wide receiver Jamari Thrash caught 4-of-6 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown in Cleveland's final preseason game. Dynasty Analysis: This was a much needed sign of hope for anyone who drafted Thrash late in initial dynasty rookie drafts as we hadn't heard much from him this off-season. Unfortunately, it may be a little too late as the Browns could have their depth chart relatively settled. If Thrash can crack the final roster, he's a good candidate for a deep league roster spot.
Dynasty | Lions quarterback Hendon Hooker completed 12-of-20 passes for 114 yards with a touchdown and an interception, adding 93 rushing yards in the Lions final preseason game. Dynasty Analysis: Hooker really hasn't been impressive this off-season after missing all of 2023 rehabbing his injury. At this point, it looks like he's lost the backup job to Nate Sudfeld and his roster spot is in jeopardy. Hooker's status will be one to watch in the coming weeks as he'd likely latch on somewhere but getting released would be a bad sign for his future dynasty prospects.
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski isn't concerned about the health of quarterback Deshaun Watson (arm). He didn't suit up for the team's preseason finale versus the Seattle Seahawks. However, Stefanski downplayed any speculation regarding Watson's "arm soreness," stating he feels "great" about the signal-caller's health. In addition, Stefanski expects Watson to participate fully in upcoming practices, although he's already comfortable with the amount of work his quarterback has put in this offseason. While the coach isn't concerned, the same can't be said for fantasy managers, considering Watson's limited time on the field in the last few seasons. But the Browns open the season in a few weeks against the Cowboys, so many questions will get answered.
From RotoBaller
