Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Malik Heath led the Packers in all receiving categories during their final preseason tune-up against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday afternoon. Heath, the second-year receiver out of Ole Miss, led the Packers with five targets and a four-catch, 39-yard effort, including a third-quarter touchdown from Sean Clifford. The Packers sat Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, leaving the starting wide receivers to be Heath and Bo Melton, of whom Heath is battling to be the team's WR5 this season. The Packers have an embarrassment of riches at the receiver spot, so the team may opt to keep six on the 53-man roster, but the race is too close to call if the Packers only keep one. Heath was a sporadic contributor last season but was not fantasy-relevant. He shouldn't be drafted, but if any of the receivers ahead of him are hurt, Heath could contribute if he makes the roster.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Bo Melton scored a touchdown on a beautiful throw from rookie Michael Pratt on Saturday afternoon in the Packers' final preseason matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. With the Packers sitting Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, Melton got some extra time to shine on Saturday and delivered with that second-quarter score. Melton only earned two targets and caught one, but made it count. While the first four receivers are set in stone for the Packers, the fifth wide receiver slot is up for grabs between Melton and second-year pro Malik Heath, who also caught a touchdown on the day. The Packers may opt to keep both Melton and Heath on the 53-man roster, but if not, it's likely a decision between the two. For fantasy purposes, there's no need to draft Melton but keep an eye on him if any of the other receivers get hurt as Melton was productive toward the end of 2023 for the Packers.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall played well in the team's last preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles, completing 17 of 25 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns while adding 11 yards on the ground. The 26-year-old led the Vikings on five consecutive scoring drives and left the game with a 23-3 lead. The second-year quarterback out of BYU was on the roster bubble with the possibility of joining the Vikings' practice squad but may have made the final cut as Hall looked sharp and decisive. If Hall does indeed get cut, expect him to be swiftly signed by another team. The former BYU Cougar likely will enter the 2024 regular season as the Vikings' QB3 behind starter Sam Darnold and backup Nick Mullens.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers rookie quarterback Michael Pratt was solid in his final preseason outing against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday afternoon. Pratt was 8-of-12 for 80 yards with an 18-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter to Bo Melton. He also threw an interception in the third quarter to Trenton Simpson, where Pratt recklessly came flying in to make the tackle and was shaken up on the play. In the post-game press conference, head coach Matt LaFleur said Pratt "lost his wind" when trying to make the post-interception tackle. Pratt is battling incumbent backup quarterback Sean Clifford to be the QB2 behind Jordan Love this season, but the race is too close to call yet. The Packers travel to Brazil and open their season on September 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers quarterback Sean Clifford struggled yet again in the Packers' third and final preseason contest against the Baltimore Ravens. Clifford was 6-of-14 for 53 yards with a touchdown pass to Malik Heath in the third quarter. The second-year pro from Penn State Clifford and rookie Michael Pratt alternated every two drives in their heated QB2 battle behind Jordan Love. Pratt has outplayed Clifford in the last two preseason contests but the race is too close to call with Clifford having the leg up with one more season of experience. The winner of this battle will be Love's direct backup when the Packers travel to Brazil to open their regular season on Friday, September 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall played most of the second half against the Cleveland Browns on Saturday, looking sharp in his limited passing opportunities. The 2023 fifth-round pick completed four of his five passes for 87 yards and two scores while rushing for 11 yards on two attempts, including an incredible 71-yard bomb to Jeshaun Jones. The Vikings were ahead by multiple scores for much of Hall's playtime, so he did not have many chances to show off his arm, but he was effective when he could. The second-year quarterback bounced back from a disappointing first preseason game, and at a good time for that, too -- the backup quarterback position in Minnesota has been in flux with rookie J.J. McCarthy (knee) being placed on injured reserve earlier this week. Hall made his case to be on the 53-man roster for the Vikings and will need to fight off Nick Mullens and newly signed Matt Corral for the opportunity.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) will undergo surgery and is expected to be sidelined for six to eight weeks. "DaRon Bland experienced foot discomfort on Wednesday of last week during training camp in Oxnard," the team disclosed in a statement. "Imaging revealed a stress fracture in his foot." The 25-year-old had a monster season in 2023-24, finishing with a league-leading nine interceptions, returning five for a touchdown. Without question, his absence is significant for the Cowboys' defense overall. Rookie Caelen Carson is anticipated to take over while Bland is out of commission.
From RotoBaller
According to Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles, running back Chase Edmonds (undisclosed) is expected to begin the season on the injured reserve list. No surprise here, considering the veteran back has been battling an unspecified ailment throughout training camp. Of course, the No. 1 spot on the depth chart is held by Rachaad White, who narrowly missed the 1,000-yard rushing mark in 2023-24. As a result, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker will be looking for scraps, although neither player should be viewed as anything more than an insurance policy.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston will start in Saturday's preseason matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. Under normal circumstances, a lineup move for a preseason game wouldn't mean much. However, with Deshaun Watson (arm) having issues with "general arm soreness" of late, the Browns would benefit from giving Winston all the snaps he can handle. It also means Watson won't get his first taste of in-game action since November until the Browns commence the 2024-25 campaign on September 8 versus the Dallas Cowboys, so the signal-caller could have some residual rust to shake off. Of course, guys like Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and David Njoku (undisclosed) may suffer from a production standpoint if Watson struggles.
From RotoBaller
The Bears cut tight end Tommy Sweeney on Saturday. He signed a deal with Chicago a few months ago after spending his entire career in Buffalo. The 29-year-old appeared in 24 contests for the Bills. However, he had just 18 catches for 165 yards and one touchdown. With Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, and Marcedes Lewis on the roster, the Bears are set heading into the 2024-25 campaign. Regarding Sweeney's future, there's a chance he could at least earn a spot on another team throughout the National Football League. Yet, his fantasy value can't get any lower, nor will it improve anytime soon.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns have ruled out quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) for their preseason finale on Saturday night against the Seattle Seahawks. Watson, who has not played since having season-ending shoulder surgery last November, is next slated to play in the team's regular-season opener against the Dallas Cowboys in early September. It's not really a surprise after the 28-year-old signal-caller was held back in Wednesday's practice with general arm soreness. With Watson sitting on Saturday, backup Jameis Winston will draw the start versus Seattle. Watson is best considered as a QB2 with upside in fantasy after playing in a total of 12 games the last two years with Cleveland due to injuries. The former first-rounder proved in 2020 with the Houston Texans, though, that he has clear QB1 upside, throwing for a league-high 4,823 yards with 33 TDs and only seven interceptions.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie seventh-round wide receiver Brenden Rice has flashed with physicality in routes and catching in training camp and the preseason, enough to earn a spot on the 53-man roster and compete for time at receiver, but he probably is the sixth receiver on the depth chart. Fellow seventh-round rookie Cornelius Johnson struggled with drops in camp and hasn't had the positive days that many of his draft peers have, making him a long shot to make the team. The 22-year-old Rice is the son of Jerry Rice. He had 1,402 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns in his final two seasons at USC and could eventually become a nice red-zone weapon because of physicality. But for now, fantasy managers should only really consider him a long-term stash in dynasty/keeper formats.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver DJ Turner is a roster lock and is projected to be the team's WR3 behind Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker, according to The Athletic's Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed. Turner was already a great special teams player but has sealed his spot by making plays on offense while being lined up all over the field. Jalen Guyton is general manager Tom Telesco's guy from the Los Angeles Chargers and seems like a reliable option with some speed. Tyreik McAllister's punt return for a touchdown in the preseason finale on Friday night against the San Francisco 49ers may have sealed him the final WR spot over Kristian Wilkerson. Wilkerson is more likely to be signed back to the practice squad. Turner, 27, has no catches in his first two years in the NFL and is unlikely to be on the fantasy radar unless one of the players ahead of him on the WR totem pole goes down with an injury.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers second-round rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey missed time in training camp with an undisclosed injury but was back for the team's second preseason game against the Los Angeles Rams, where he caught one pass. McConkey has worked with the starting offense at slot receiver when the team is in three-receiver sets at practice and appears to be third on the receiver depth chart in LA behind DJ Chark and Joshua Palmer. The 22-year-old was the 34th overall pick in April and appears set to have a significant role in his first year in the NFL. McConkey excels as a route-runner and will need to gain plenty of chemistry with quarterback Justin Herbert in what is expected to be a run-first offense in 2024. But with the departure of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, McConkey will have a big opportunity and is worth a late-round flier for WR depth in fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed have listed Las Vegas Raiders rookie sixth-round running back Dylan Laube as the RB4 behind Zamir White, Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah and expect him to make the final 53-man roster out of training camp. White showed well for himself when he filled in for the injured Josh Jacobs last year, and now that Jacobs is out of town, White should lead this backfield in touches in 2024. However, Mattison was brought in to help share the load, especially on third down. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has praised White's receiving skills, so he won't exactly just be a two-down back. Abdullah is a trusted veteran who can also play special teams, while Laube is a nice project and will provide depth. The 24-year-old Laube is really only worth stashing in dynasty leagues for now, and his quickest path to playing time will be on third downs.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie first-round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (shoulder) didn't play at all in the preseason due to an aggravated shoulder injury that traces back to his college days, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. Pearsall last practiced in training camp on Aug. 6, but the good news is there is not enough significant structural damage to call into question his rookie season. Shanahan said he hopes Pearsall returns to practice this week, and if he does, it's a good sign for his availability for the regular-season opener on Monday night, Sept. 9, against the New York Jets. The 23-year-old partially dislocated his shoulder when he first hurt it in college, but it didn't stop the Niners from taking him 31st overall in April. His injury has added a wrinkle to the Brandon Aiyuk saga and should also be concerning to fantasy managers that have already invested in Pearsall in dynasty/keeper formats.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said that the team's starters will not play in the preseason finale on Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens. Along with quarterback Jordan Love, running back Josh Jacobs, wide receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave will not suit up for this one as the Packers try to avoid injuries to their key players as they prepare for the start of the 2024 regular season in two weeks. The next time we'll see Love running Green Bay's offense in a competitive game will be on Sept. 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles. A lot will be expected of Love in his second full season as the starter after he threw for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 picks in 17 regular-season games in 2023 before upsetting the Cowboys in the playoffs. His big season catapulted him to low-end QB1 status in fantasy formats.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers situation with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk remains unsettled, and the former first-rounder's long-term standing with the organization remains very much in the air. The two sides continue to work on a long-term contract extension, but nothing has been agreed upon yet. It was a good sign that Aiyuk traveled with the team to Las Vegas for their preseason finale on Friday night, but until something gets done contract-wise, Aiyuk won't be back on the field. The Niners do have an extension offer out there for Aiyuk, and the final year of the extension could be tweaked a bit to seal the deal. The Pittsburgh Steelers still have their trade offer for Aiyuk on the table, with it essentially being up to the 49ers to decide whether they want to trade him or continue working toward an extension. It remains to be seen what direction this goes, but the 26-year-old's fantasy value will be highest if he stays in San Fran.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Kristian Wilkerson made a solid impression in the Raiders' preseason finale, snagging three catches for 35 yards and a touchdown in Friday's 24-24 tie to the San Francisco 49ers. While this performance boosts his chances of making the final roster, fantasy managers should temper their expectations. Even if Wilkerson secures a spot, he's likely to be no higher than fifth or sixth on the depth chart. In the Raiders' offense, this translates to minimal regular-season opportunities, barring multiple injuries ahead of him. His preseason touchdown showcases some red-zone potential, but Wilkerson's fantasy relevance will be severely limited with established targets like Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers ahead of him. At best, he's a name to remember for deep dynasty leagues or as a potential in-season waiver wire option if injuries decimate the Raiders' receiving corps. For now, Wilkerson remains off the radar in all but the deepest of fantasy formats.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders rookie wide receiver Ramel Keyton turned heads with a team-leading four receptions for 76 yards in the Raiders' preseason finale against the San Francisco 49ers. While this performance certainly helps his case for making the 53-man roster, fantasy managers need to maintain perspective. Even if Keyton survives final cuts, he'll be buried behind established veterans and higher draft picks on the depth chart. His impressive 19.0 yards per catch average in this game hints at big-play ability, but opportunities to showcase this in the regular season will likely be few and far between. Keyton is competing for one of the final receiver spots, which typically translates to special teams duties rather than offensive snaps. For fantasy purposes, Keyton is nothing more than a name to file away in case of multiple injuries to the Raiders' receiving corps during the season. He's not draftable in any fantasy format at this time.
From RotoBaller