Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk caught two of three targets for 33 yards through the air during Sunday's preseason finale against the Washington Commanders. Polk, a rookie, will make the initial 53-man roster but was still competing for opportunities on Sunday. The depth chart isn't finalized yet and it's still unclear exactly what role he'll have in his rookie campaign, but there's a decent chance he could start alongside Demario Douglas. His usage could also depend on whether New England starts Jacoby Brissett (shoulder) or Drake Maye at quarterback in Week 1. As it stands, Polk is a solid dynasty target but can be avoided in most redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Mitchell Tinsley had his best game of the preseason on Sunday evening as he caught four passes for 37 yards. This starkly contrasts the previous two games, as he was held off the scoresheet against the Jets and caught only two passes for eight yards last week against the Dolphins. While he did not stand out during the first two games, his performance on Sunday evening may have earned him a spot on the final roster. Tinsley made the Washington roster as an undrafted free agent last summer after a big preseason but made only three minor appearances during the regular season. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to who will emerge as the No.2 wideout opposite of Terry McLaurin during the early parts of the season, as that role is still unknown as we enter the opening week of the regular season.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders kicker Cade York went 2-for-2 on field goal attempts and 1-for-1 on extra-point attempts on Sunday evening. York joined the Commanders via a trade from the Cleveland Browns on Thursday in exchange for a seventh-round pick. The Commanders waived Riley Patterson, who had struggled this preseason, which left York as the only kicker on the roster for Sunday's game. The 23-year-old was perfect on Sunday evening and should be expected to serve as the primary kicker in Washington going forward. York was selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft but only saw attempts in that season as he was waived before the 2023 season after struggling in his rookie campaign. While York will be left on the waiver wire in most leagues, he could be worth a look as a streaming option as the season progresses, especially if Jayden Daniels adjusts quickly to the professional level.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders quarterback Trace McSorley shined in the second half as he threw for 125 yards with a passing score and added 40 yards on the ground. The former Penn State product led the Commanders to all of their 20 points in the second half. McSorley tallied his passing score in the final minutes of the game on a four-yard pass to Martavis Bryant. Jeff Driskel got the starting nod as he is currently listed as the No.3 quarterback on the depth chart, but McSorley's performance does put him in the conversation to take over that role. McSorley appeared in six games in the 2022 season and got the start in a Week 16 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and threw for 217 yards. While his performance on Sunday evening may have earned him a spot on the final roster, he will only be fantasy-relevant if the quarterback room suffers numerous injuries.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Javon Baker was targeted seven times during Sunday's preseason finale against the Washington Commanders, but he finished the game with just two catches for 33 yards through the air. The fourth-round pick will make the initial 53-man roster, but his exact slot on the depth chart isn't yet confirmed. He's unlikely to crack the starting lineup and therefore can be avoided in most redraft leagues. Managers could justify selecting him in deeper dynasty leagues, though.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Joe Milton III completed just five of his 17 pass attempts for 78 yards through the air during Sunday's preseason finale against the Washington Commanders. He finished the game with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. Although Milton's stats were far from promising, he should still hold on to the third-string quarterback role given that his main competition, Bailey Zappe, didn't enter until the final drive Sunday. As long as Jacoby Brissett (shoulder) and Drake Maye are active on gameday, Milton will ride the bench as the emergency third-string quarterback during his rookie campaign.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders quarterback Jeff Driskel got the starting nod in Sunday's preseason finale as the Commanders opted to rest starting quarterback Jayden Daniels and backup Marcus Mariota. Driskel tallied 73 passing yards while going 12-for-18 with an interception and no scores. His longest pass of the evening was for 12 yards to wideout Mitchell Tinsley. While his performance was quite underwhelming, he faced many New England starters. Over the previous two preseason games, the 31-year-old totaled 169 passing yards with 68 rushing yards. Driskel is currently listed as the number three option on the depth chart, and seeing him get the starting nod in this game solidifies his position on the depth chart. Driskel has a tough path to being fantasy-relevant in 2024 and will only get an opportunity in the regular season due to injuries to the other two passers on the roster.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie running back Michael Wiley tallied 26 yards on the ground with a rushing score on Sunday evening. This was his second rushing score of the preseason, and he ran for 67 yards over the past three weeks. Wiley joined the Commanders as an undrafted free agent this offseason and could have earned a spot on the final roster, given his strong performance on Sunday. The Arizona product may eventually slot in as the No. 3 or 4 option on the depth chart as Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr. have fallen short of expectations this preseason. Wiley remains a name to watch in deeper leagues but will likely not be fantasy-relevant during his rookie campaign.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye completed 13 of 20 passes for 126 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions during Sunday's preseason finale against the Washington Commanders. He also had a deep touchdown pass that was nullified due to an offensive line penalty. Furthermore, Maye rushed three times for 17 yards in the contest. The No. 3 overall pick has progressively improved throughout his three preseason games, and when Jacoby Brissett (shoulder) exited Sunday's game early, Maye took full advantage of the extra reps. The Patriots' 2024 outlook is bleak, but it seems like the team may have a solid quarterback prospect in Maye. Now, all eyes will be on head coach Jerod Mayo as he names a starting quarterback, presumably within the next week. Brissett had been the early favorite to start Week 1, but Maye has made quite the push for that job lately. As soon as Maye is named the starter, he'll become a high-end QB3 for redraft purposes.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back JaMycal Hasty rushed four times for 21 yards during Sunday's preseason finale against the Washington Commanders. He also caught all three of his targets for an additional 24 yards through the air. Hasty is expected to make the Patriots' roster and could carve out a receiving role alongside fellow pass-catching back Antonio Gibson. This backfield still belongs to Rhamondre Stevenson, but Hasty and Gibson will earn some opportunities, especially after the latest chatter that New England wants to get its running backs heavily involved on screen plays. With that said, Hasty is a depth option within a weak offense. He can be avoided in most fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie fourth-round wide receiver Troy Franklin caught his only target for a 21-yard gain and carried the ball one time for nine yards in the team's 38-12 win over the Arizona Cardinals at Empower Field in the preseason finale on Sunday. ESPN's Jeff Legwold wrote earlier this week that Franklin has been slow to adjust to the physicality of NFL defensive backs, but considering the Broncos traded to up select him in the fourth round, he's still on track to make the final 53-man roster. It could come at the expense of third-year wideout Brandon Johnson, who had a team-high 83 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. Franklin has experience playing with rookie quarterback Bo Nix from their college days at Oregon, but as things stand now, he's most likely going to enter the regular season as the WR5 behind Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Tim Patrick and Marvin Mims Jr.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Johnson had a nice day at the office in the team's 38-12 blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals at Empower Field in Sunday's preseason finale. Johnson caught both of his targets in the contest for a team-high 83 yards and a touchdown. His touchdown came on a 46-yard bomb from quarterback Zach Wilson in the fourth quarter. The 26-year-old third-year pass-catcher also hauled in a 37-yard pass from Wilson a quarter earlier. Even with Johnson's big game to close out the preseason, he isn't guaranteed a spot on the final 53-man roster heading into the regular season. He's been competing with rookies Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele for the No. 5 role this summer after catching 19 of his 30 targets for 284 yards and four touchdowns for the Broncos in 13 games (two starts) in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Cowboys quarterback Trey Lance completed 33-of-49 passes for 323 yards with one touchdown, adding 90 rushing yards and another score in the Cowboys preseason finale. Dynasty Analysis: He also threw five interceptions. Yep. FIVE. This was as mixed a bag as you can find with a quarterback line and it matches his performance. Lance made great plays in both the run and pass game but a lot of it was wasted by mistakes. It's clear he has immense talent and also evident he's still reckless at times. Dallas has a decision to make but at this point it seems his roster spot is safe. It's hard to make a case for Lance on a dynasty roster if he gets beat out by Cooper Rush.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Josh Johnson finished off the preseason on Saturday with a seemingly tight grip on the backup role to Lamar Jackson. The veteran ended their blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers with 71 yards and a touchdown while throwing five completions out of seven attempts. Despite playing just the first three possessions, Johnson led the QBs in efficiency, yards, and rating, and was the only one to lead the team to a score. Throughout the preseason he totalled 253 yards and two touchdowns while throwing 20-for-30. Any of the quarterbacks that took the field for the Ravens this preseason aren't likely to see the field unless something happens to Lamar Jackson, but for fantasy managers relying on Jackson, it's nice to have a backup plan.
Las Vegas Raides quarterback Nathan Peterman completed 12-of-19 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his poise and experience in Friday's 24-24 tie to the San Francisco 49ers. Despite this, his path to fantasy relevance remains obstructed by Aidan O'Connell, who seems to have the inside track for the backup quarterback position behind Gardner Minshew II. Peterman's familiarity with the Raiders could aid his case for a roster spot, but from a fantasy perspective, this performance doesn't elevate him beyond a deep-league watchlist candidate. Even if secured, his role projects to be behind O'Connell, rendering Peterman largely irrelevant for fantasy rosters unless significant changes or injuries alter the depth chart. Fantasy managers should monitor the situation, but Peterman's fantasy impact looks minimal for the upcoming season.
The Chicago Bears have acquired Seahawks linebacker Darrell Taylor in exchange for a 2025 sixth-round draft pick, releasing defensive end Khalid Kareem to make room for him. Taylor, a second-round pick in 2020, missed his rookie season due to a leg fracture but has since made an impact as an edge rusher. Over the past three seasons, he has recorded 21.5 sacks in 49 games, with 13 starts. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, Taylor is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2024 season. Last year, he played all 17 games with five starts, totaling 5.5 sacks, seven tackles for loss, and eight quarterback hits while participating in 44 percent of the defensive snaps. The Bears, who struggled with pass rushing last seasonfinishing with the lowest sack percentage (4.64%) and the second-fewest sacks (30)are looking to boost their ability to pressure quarterbacks. Taylor and Montez Sweat are expected to play a significant role in addressing this need.
Denver Broncos rookie fifth-round running back Audric Estime only handled five carries in the team's preseason finale against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday at Empower Field and gained 18 yards (3.6 yards per rush), but he found the end zone for one of two Denver rushing scores in the 38-12 victory. Estime also caught his only target for a 14-yard pickup. Blake Watson led the backfield with 11 carries for 38 yards while also catching his only target for eight yards. The 20-year-old Estime got the start in this one and only played on one drive. If Samaje Perine makes Denver's final 53-man roster, Estime will likely begin his first season in the NFL as Denver's RB4 behind Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Perine. Estime is a physical, between-the-tackles runner and could be utilized in specific short-yardage and goal-line situations, but he can likely be left alone in 12-team fantasy leagues for now.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills linebacker Deion Jones was released on Sunday, according to a post from broadcaster Chris Brown on X. Jones' release isn't necessarily surprising, but it's still noteworthy given his veteran status and previous success in the NFL. He made the Pro Bowl with the Atlanta Falcons in 2017 and has tallied 731 tackles, 13 interceptions, 12 sacks, and five forced fumbles through 109 career games. In 13 games with the Carolina Panthers last year, Jones registered 35 tackles, one sack, and one interception. His experience as a key defender in the NFL should be enough to generate some buzz around his name on the open market. However, he may wait to sign a new deal until the dust settles after rosters trim down on Tuesday.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos third-string quarterback Zach Wilson got pretty much all the run in the preseason finale against the Arizona Cardinals at Empower Field on Sunday with rookie first-round starter Bo Nix taking a seat. In the 38-13 beatdown of Arizona, Wilson went 16-for-25 passing for 251 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while also carrying the ball two times for 22 yards and a rushing TD. Jarrett Stidham started the game and went 2-for-4 for 28 yards on just one possession. Wilson's best play of the day was a 46-yard touchdown pass to receiver Brandon Johnson in the fourth quarter. The 25-year-old QB also fumbled, but it was recovered by Denver. It was nice to see Wilson get some positive momentum heading into the regular season, but the former first-rounder is still expected to be Denver's QB3 behind Nix and Stidham when Week 1 arrives in two weeks.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs tight ends Noah Gray and Jared Wiley "can be interchangeable within the offense as the second tight end in some formations," according to Nate Taylor of The Athletic. Gray had an impressive campaign in 2023, and although Wiley hasn't necessarily stood out in his first training camp, it sounds like the coaching staff trusts him enough to get on the field over Gray at times. Of course, the exact depth chart doesn't matter much for fantasy football purposes since Travis Kelce is the clear-cut alpha tight end and remains the only Chiefs tight end worth rostering in redraft leagues. Even if Kelce misses time in 2024, the fact that Gray and Wiley are interchangeable would make it difficult to trust either in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller