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WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Derrick Nnadi Jul 17 1:50pm CT
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The Kansas City Chiefs placed defensive end Charles Omenihu (knee), defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi (triceps), offensive guard Joe Thuney (pectoral) and cornerback Jaylen Watson (undisclosed) on the Physically Unable to Perform list on Wednesday. The team also placed defensive end B.J. Thompson (undisclosed) on the Non-Football Injury list and signed free-agent wide receiver Kyle Sheets. Omenihu suffered a torn ACL in the AFC Championship game against the Baltimore Ravens and had surgery on his knee in February, so the 26-year-old will not be ready for the start of the 2024 season. Nnadi was injured in the wild-card win over the Dolphins, and it remains to be seen if he'll be ready for Week 1. Thuney is expected to be ready for Week 1 and will be KC's starting left guard when healthy.

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Cordarrelle Patterson Jul 17 1:40pm CT
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It's highly probable that the Pittsburgh Steelers will label Cordarrelle Patterson as the Joker in his first year with the team. "Running back, kick returner, tackle, tight end I can do it all. Whatever they need me to do," Patterson said last month. The 33-year-old veteran floated from the RB room to the receiver room last year with the Atlanta Falcons under head coach Arthur Smith, who is now Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator. Patterson fully embraced the role in 2023 and was signed by the Steelers just hours after the NFL passed a new kickoff rule. He has returned 273 kicks in his career with an NFL-record nine touchdowns. Patterson was primarily a RB last year in Atlanta but had just 181 rushing yards and no TDs on 50 carries after posting a career-high 695 rushing yards in 2022. Pittsburgh hasn't offered clues on how they plan to use Patterson, but he'll most likely be used on kickoffs and as a depth option for the backfield.

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Xavier Worthy Jul 17 1:30pm CT
Xavier Worthy

Kansas City Chiefs rookie first-round wide receiver Xavier Worthy (hamstring), who suffered a hamstring injury and missed most of the offseason practices, will not start training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list. Worthy is good to go but will be eased back in at practices this summer. He's not going to get a ton of reps early on, but he's healthy, which is big as he tries to establish chemistry with quarterback Patrick Mahomes going into his rookie campaign. It's good news for the 21-year-old speedster, who isn't expected to be eased into the offense in Year 1. And with Rashee Rice likely facing a suspension, Worthy should be starting in three-wide sets right away, which makes him an intriguing late-round flier in fantasy drafts as a WR4/5 in a KC offense that is looking to bounce back after a down year in 2023.

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Xavier Worthy Jul 17 1:20pm CT
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes hinted that rookie first-round wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who recorded the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL history at this year's combine, won't be eased into the offense in his first year in the league. "There's no easing [him in]," Mahomes said. "He's going to have to be ready to go. We got a lot of competition on this offense." The 21-year-old speedster missed most of offseason practices due to a sore hamstring, so he's going to have to get up to speed quickly in training camp and the preseason as he competes for a starting role in 2024. With Rashee Rice likely to be suspended to open the year, Worthy has a good shot to be a starter in Week 1 alongside Marquise Brown. A receiver this quick and fast in an Andy Reid offense is extremely intriguing, making him worth a look as a WR4/5 this fall in redraft fantasy leagues.

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Malachi Corley Jul 17 1:20pm CT
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The New York Jets signed third-round wide receiver Malachi Corley to a four-year, $6.073 million rookie deal on Wednesday that includes a $1.237 million signing bonus. Corley was the 65th overall selection in April's NFL draft after he caught 79 passes for 984 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2023 with Western Kentucky. The 22-year-old comes highly touted for his yards-after-the-catch ability but could struggle to find regular playing time out of the slot for the Jets in his rookie season as long as Xavier Gipson stays healthy. However, Corley has drawn comparisons to Deebo Samuel and had 29 touchdowns in his last three seasons in college. If he can overtake Gipson at some point in 2024, he could be a popular waiver-wire pickup in single-year fantasy leagues in an offense led by future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers.

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Deshaun Watson Jul 17 1:10pm CT
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At his second annual 7-on-7 high-school showcase through his foundation, Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) didn't say whether he expects to be fully cleared for the start of training camp next week, but he did say that there have been no setbacks in his shoulder rehab. "I'm great," Watson said. The 28-year-old played in only six games in 2023 for the second straight year due to a right-shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery. The good news is that he was throwing during minicamp this offseason and is expected to be ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener, barring a setback this summer. Watson has QB1 potential when healthy, but he missed all of 2021 due to a suspension and has played in only 12 games the last two years due to injury, which makes him a risk/reward QB2 in fantasy in 2024 in what could be a make-or-break season.

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Bo Nix Jul 16 11:10pm CT
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The Denver Broncos and guard Quinn Meinerz have agreed to terms on a four-year, $80 million contract extension that includes $45 million guaranteed, per Adam Schefter of ESPN.com. This new deal keeps Meinerz under contract with the Broncos through 2028. Meinerz has blossomed into quite the success story since being selected out of Wisconsin-;Whitewater in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He finished last season with a stellar 88.7 PFF run blocking grade, which represented a career-best. Going forward, he'll be tasked with blocking for a young offensive core that includes Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime.

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Jared Goff Jul 16 9:43pm CT
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Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff absorbed a league-high 69 hits while throwing a pass in 2023, according to Pro Football Reference. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (65) was the only other quarterback to be hit more than 60 times.

Fantasy Spin: The 69 hits are 16 more than he absorbed in 2022. The Lions arguably upgraded what was already a very good line with the addition of Kevin Zeitler during the offseason, so the number of hits he takes in 2024 should decrease by a decent amount. Goff is generating some early league MVP buzz and has the weapons in place to enjoy his finest season to date if he can stay healthy. He isn't much of a run threat, but Detroit's offense might be so good that he could finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback anyway.

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Baker Mayfield Jul 16 9:33pm CT
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield finished in a tie with Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell in 2023 for the most batted passes in the league with 20, according to Pro football Reference. Mayfield finished fifth in batted passes with 16 during the 2022 season despite only playing in 12 games.

Fantasy Spin: The 2023 season saw Mayfield make some progress in avoiding batted passes, as he went from one batted pass every 21 attempts to one every 28.3 attempts. The fact that Mayfield is a shorter quarterback (6-foot-1) does not help matters, especially considering he does not throw off his toes like Drew Brees. Mayfield is a difficult projection for fantasy in 2024, as he likely owes a lot of credit for his career turnaround to former offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who left to take the head coaching job with the Carolina Panthers. As such, he should be considered a middling QB2 option in fantasy.

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Ricky Pearsall Jul 16 8:20pm CT
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San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (undisclosed) has been placed on the non-football injury list. According to Matt Barrows of The Athletic, the injury is not believed to be serious. The first-round rookie can be activated at any time, so perhaps this was merely a minor procedural move out of Santa Clara, California. During his final season at the University of Florida, Pearsall caught 65 passes for 965 yards and four touchdowns. However, he might not have a major impact with the 49ers right away. After all, he's behind Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey in the pecking order. Nevertheless, Pearsall's talent and the 49ers' strong offense make him an appealing fantasy option, especially in dynasty rookie drafts.

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Daniel Jones Jul 16 8:20pm CT
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New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (knee) is healthy and won't be placed on the PUP list ahead of training camp, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. The former first-round pick is recovering from a torn ACL but has progressed nicely and is not expected to have any limitations going forward. Injuries have been an issue for Jones in the past, but he should benefit from a rebuilt offensive line and receiver corps in 2024. Their most notable addition was Malik Nabers, the standout LSU receiver selected sixth overall in April's draft. While it's still too early to label the Giants as contenders or argue that Jones' massive extension was worth it, we can at least find some optimism in the fact that Jones will be a full-go coming out of this offseason. His modest running ability allows him to rank as a low-end QB2 option heading into 2024 fantasy drafts.

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Theo Johnson Jul 16 8:20pm CT
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New York Giants tight end Theo Johnson (hip) has been placed on the physically unable to perform list, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com. The Giants "hope" it's not a long-term problem for the rookie. Johnson caught 34 passes for 341 yards and seven touchdowns at Penn State last season, prompting the Giants to select him 107th overall in April's draft. It was a timely addition for New York's NFC franchise given that veteran Darren Waller retirement less than two months later. The Giants' current tight end depth chart is headlined by Johnson and Daniel Bellinger. Johnson may face an uphill battle to open 2024 as the Giants' No. 1 tight end given his injury and unfamiliarity with New York's system. This makes Bellinger the more intriguing option in redraft fantasy leagues, though Johnson has the edge in dynasty formats.

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Stephon Gilmore Jul 16 4:43pm CT
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Free-agent CB Stephon Gilmore (Cowboys) said he is still waiting to sign with a team but believes he can be a starting cornerback in the NFL.

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Davante Adams Jul 16 3:53pm CT
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Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams 'is expected to be with the Raiders as there has been absolutely no trade talk - period,' according to his agents on Tuesday, July 16.

Fantasy Spin: Adams' agents called recent trade talk "baseless, unfounded speculation." The 32-year-old's cap number for this season is $25.35 million and increases to $44.1 million over the final two years of the deal, so any interested party will likely need to make a series of moves in order to open up a spot for him. Even in what was a frustrating year for him with poor quarterback play, Adams still managed 103 catches for 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns. Although age is becoming a concern, he is still a solid fantasy WR1.

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Christian Watson Jul 16 3:40pm CT
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Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (hamstring) finally feels he's in a good place injury-wise following his offseason visit to a local specialist. As Matt Schneidman of The Athletic writes, "keeping Watson on the field is paramount for this group to reach its potential since he might be their biggest game breaker." The Packers have one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in the NFL, but that doesn't negate the fact that having the former first-rounder healthy would be huge for Jordan Love and the Packers' progression. "Maybe Year 3 is the one we finally see in consistent stretches the brilliance we've seen from Watson in spurts over the last two seasons," Schneidman added. Watson caught 28 passes for 422 yards and five touchdowns in 2023 as his faulty hamstring limited him to just nine games. His inability to stay healthy so far has dropped him to the WR4 range for fantasy football, but he could see his value rise by playing close to 17 games in 2024.

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Davante Adams Jul 16 3:20pm CT
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Given all the trade talk surrounding Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams this offseason, his agents, Kenny Chapman and Frank Bauer released a statement on Tuesday, saying: "This is baseless, unfounded speculation and Davante is expected to be with the Raiders as there has been absolutely no trade talk - period." Adams reiterated earlier this offseason that he fully plans to play the 2024 campaign with the Raiders, which will be his third with the organization. Despite the Raiders moving on quickly from Jimmy Garoppolo in 2023, the 31-year-old Adams had a fourth straight 100-catch season, in addition to 1,144 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. However, his yardage and TD total were his lowest marks since 2019. The QB situation isn't much better in 2024 with Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew, making Adams more of a low-end WR1 in fantasy than a high-end WR1.

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Caleb Williams Jul 16 3:10pm CT
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The Chicago Bears and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams agreed to terms on his rookie deal on Tuesday, according to sources. The rookie quarterback out of USC will received a slotted four-year, $39.49 million fully guaranteed contract that includes a $25.5 million signing bonus. Unsurprisingly, the 22-year-old was named the team's starting signal-caller back in May after the team traded Justin Fields to the Steeler and selected Williams with the first overall pick in April's draft. In addition to being the most NFL-ready QB in this year's draft class, Williams heads to Chicago with plenty of offensive weapons around him, giving him low-end QB1/high-end QB2 upside in fantasy in his first year in the league. His dual-threat abilities as a passer and rusher make him by far and away the most attractive dynasty/keeper QB this year.

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Daniel Jones Jul 16 1:30pm CT
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New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (knee) said during an appearance on "Simms Complete" on the Bleav Podcast Network that he has had a "pretty smooth process" with "no real setbacks" while recovering from a torn ACL that he suffered in 2023. "At this point," Jones said, "I'm doing pretty much everything running, cutting, everything I need to do." Once the former first-rounder returns to action during training camp this summer, he'll be playing for his job long-term, as his $47.8 million salary cap hit in 2024 is the fifth-largest in the NFL this year. If Jones gets hurt again in 2024 or disappoints, he could become a cap casualty with two years left on his four-year, $160 million deal. Even though the Giants added dynamic rookie wideout Malik Nabers this year, Jones will have to prove himself to both the G-Men and fantasy managers. Coming off a serious injury, he should be considered a low-end QB2 in fantasy.

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Kayshon Boutte Jul 16 1:20pm CT
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The state of Louisiana has dropped the underage gambling and computer-fraud charges against New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, according to Boutte's attorney. Boutte was arrested in January after he was alleged to have taken part in illegal sports betting during his time in college at LSU. It's great news for the 22-year-old that charges have been dropped, as he now is unlikely to be suspended in 2024 by the NFL. The Patriots selected Boutte in the sixth round (187th overall) last year, and he finished his rookie year in the NFL with just two catches on seven targets for 19 yards in five games played. New England's pass-catching corps is looking for someone to step up in a starting role in head coach Jerod Mayo's first year at the helm in 2024, but Boutte will have to perform in training camp to earn his spot on the active roster heading into Week 1.

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San Francisco 49ers All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has officially requested a trade after an offseason of unsuccessful attempts to reach a long-term contract extension. Despite a recent meeting, the 49ers haven't been willing to engage in negotiations since May, which has led Aiyuk to respectfully ask for a trade out of town. The 26-year-old former first-rounder is currently set to make $14.12 million in 2024 on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal. Assuming he isn't traded before training camp at the end of the month, it's highly likely that Aiyuk will hold out, which will make his fantasy draft status as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 more shaky. And if Aiyuk is traded before the start of the 2024 regular season, it will mean bigger offensive roles for wideouts Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings and rookie first-rounder Ricky Pearsall.

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