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WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 5

Player Notes
Raheem Mostert Oct 4 11:10am CT
Raheem Mostert

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (chest) could play this weekend, according to Cameron Wolfe of the NFL Network. Wolfe noted that this will be determined following Friday's practice session. Mostert has been sidelined since Week 1 with a chest injury he suffered in the season opener. In that game, the veteran running back saw six carries and two targets. During this week, Mostert was able to log two consecutive limited practice sessions, which suggests he could be nearing a return. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to Friday's injury report, as it should provide clarity on his status heading into the weekend. If Mostert is able to suit up, he should be viewed as a flex option facing the New England Patriots, who have allowed the 18th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

From RotoBaller

Jason Sanders Oct 4 11:10am CT
Jason Sanders

Miami Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders will not be a recommended fantasy option in Week 5 when his team takes on the New England Patriots in Foxborough. Sanders has missed just two field goals on the season and has yet to miss an extra point attempt in four contests. However, scoring opportunities have been challenging to come by, with Miami punching in just three touchdowns through the first month of games. This offense continues to trend negatively until quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) returns. Despite the 28-year-old's trademark accuracy, fantasy managers may want to aim elsewhere for a more consistent kicking option that garners a higher floor and ceiling regarding weekly output. The former seventh-round pick is RotoBaller's K28 in this Week's rankings.

From RotoBaller

Josh Allen Oct 4 11:10am CT
Josh Allen

The Houston Texans enter Week 5 in the middle of the pack among fantasy defenses on the season, making them a highly risky play against the Buffalo Bills. Behind quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo has been excellent through four weeks. The Bills are one of three teams averaging more than 30 points, their 73.3% red zone touchdown percentage ranks third in the NFL, and they are scoring on nearly 49% of their drives overall, which is fifth-best in the league. Further, Buffalo is turning over the ball on fewer than 5% of drives and they have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks. Chances are good fantasy managers can find a better streaming option than Houston this week.

From RotoBaller

Ka'imi Fairbairn Oct 4 11:10am CT
Ka'imi Fairbairn

As one of two kickers in the NFL to have made six field goals from 50 or more yards, Houston Texans kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn remains an easy starting lineup decision with the Buffalo Bills visiting in Week 5. The UCLA product is 8-for-9 overall on field goals, perfect on extra points, and attached to one of the league's better offenses. Additionally, Buffalo's defense has allowed touchdowns on only half of its opponents' trips to the red zone so far this season. Playing indoors for a fifth straight game, Fairbairn is a top-five option among fantasy kickers this week.

From RotoBaller

Jaylen Wright Oct 4 11:00am CT
Jaylen Wright

Miami Dolphins running back Jaylen Wright may again be the primary backup in his team's backfield when they square off against the New England Patriots on Sunday. The rookie saw his highest snap share of the season in Miami's Week 4 31-12 loss to the Tennessee Titans, participating in 28 of 60 snaps (47%). In turn, Wright saw his most work on the year, handling nine carries for 32 yards and failing to bring in his sole target. Backfield mate Jeff Wilson Jr. (knee) returned to full practice on Thursday; however, the last time both were healthy in Week 3, the rookie saw one less snap and one less carry than Wilson but out-gained him by three yards and more than doubled the veteran's yards per carry (8.5). The former Volunteer will not be recommended in Week 5, particularly against a stout New England ground defense. Still, he'll be an asset to monitor over the coming weeks and would be an intriguing handcuff if he could hold onto his increased volume.

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Malik Nabers Oct 4 10:50am CT
Malik Nabers

New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of the Week 5 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. This doesn't come as much of a surprise given Nabers hasn't been able to practice this week. He continues to work his way back from a head injury he suffered in Week 4. The loss of Nabers is a significant hit to this Giants offense considering he has 35 receptions on 52 targets this season. Wan'Dale Robinson will likely gain the most value out of anyone on this offense with Nabers out. Robinson finished with 11 receptions on 14 targets with 71 yards last week. He figures to be a focal point in the passing game, especially with Nabers out.

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Baker Mayfield Oct 4 10:40am CT
Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield continued his effective play during Thursday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. Mayfield looked solid as he completed 19-of-24 passing attempts for 180 yards and three touchdowns in the overtime loss. Mayfield was accurate in this one as he only had a handful of incompletions with zero turnovers. He also added 42 yards on the ground on six carries as Mayfield looked good with his legs. Mayfield will now head into a tougher challenge against the New Orleans Saints defense in Week 6. Despite that, Mayfield has done enough to put himself in the QB1 conversation for that game.

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Jonnu Smith Oct 4 10:40am CT
Jonnu Smith

Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith will not be a viable fantasy option in Week 5 when his team lines up for a road tilt against their division-rival New England Patriots. The 29-year-old had a productive outing -- for a TE, anyway -- in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills when he reeled in 6-of-7 targets for 53 yards but has seen his production decline since then. Most recently, posting a goose egg on one target in the team's 31-12 loss against the Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins' offensive woes aside, it's unclear whether or not Smith is still the TE1 on this team, as teammate Julian Hill has out-snapped him each of the last two weeks and 125-to-100 on the season. The former still leads Hill in every statistical category. Still, the veteran tight end can't be a trusted source of consistent production as the fourth option at best in Miami's passing attack. He's RotoBaller's PPR TE26 ahead of Week 5.

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Joe Mixon Oct 4 10:30am CT
Joe Mixon

Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (ankle) is not expected to suit up for the Week 5 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Mixon hasn't played since Week 2 and it looks like he'll miss at least one more game. Mixon hasn't been able to practice this week, which puts him in the wrong direction ahead of Sunday's game. That being said, Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale figure to split up the backfield duties for at least one more week. Akers is looking like a low-end flex option after posting 53 yards on the ground on 13 attempts last week.

From RotoBaller

Khalil Shakir Oct 4 10:30am CT
Khalil Shakir

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of the Week 5 matchup against the Houston Texans. Shakir was pulled early during last week's game due to an ankle issue. It doesn't seem to be improving too well as he hasn't practiced this week. As a result, Shakir will sit out this week and will hopefully return in Week 6. His absence should mean increased roles for Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins. Also, tight end Dalton Kincaid should see more targets in the passing game with Shakir sidelined. Kincaid saw a season-high seven targets and finished with 47 yards last week.

From RotoBaller

Jaylen Waddle Oct 4 10:10am CT
Jaylen Waddle

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has an enticing Week 5 matchup in a road tilt against the New England Patriots. Waddle -- along with the other Dolphins skill players -- has been one of the more disappointing fantasy assets through the first month of the season as his team works through their offensive challenges down their starting (Tua Tagovailoa [concussion]) and backup (Skylar Thompson [ribs]) quarterbacks. However, New England's defense presents as an excellent opportunity for a bounce-back effort. The Patriots have been porous against opposing passing attacks through four weeks, allowing the fourth-most pass yards per play. Additionally, the Dolphins could be forced into a pass-heavy script, as New England has been one of the better teams at stopping the run. While it hasn't translated to on-field production, the 25-year-old has been one of the better separators in the league, garnering an "OPEN" score of 76 per ESPN analytics -- a top-six score in the NFL and ten points better than his running-mate Tyreek Hill. Waddle is RotoBaller's PPR WR44 in this week's rankings.

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Tyreek Hill Oct 4 10:00am CT
Tyreek Hill

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has a juicy matchup lined up this Sunday when his team hits the road to square off against their division-rival New England Patriots. The veteran speedster has seen his production dip over the last few outings since a massive seven-catch, 130-yard performance in the team's season opener. Not only has Hill had his offensive woes with quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) and Skylar Thompson (ribs) shelved due to injury. Also, Miami has faced three top-six defenses regarding net passing yards per play since then. Everything is working against the 30-year-old wideout, but he'll have an opportunity to get right against a New England defense that has been beaten by the pass all season. Touchdowns might be tough to come by, with the Pats allowing 21.8 points per outing, but the 1,016 passing yards they've let up are the sixth-most in the NFL. Hill is the WR28 this week in RotoBaller's Week 5 PPR rankings, with as good a chance as any to bounce back before Miami's Week 6 bye.

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Ray Davis Oct 4 9:50am CT
Ray Davis

Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis remains one of the best running back bench stashes across the league as the NFL enters Week 5. Under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills lean on James Cook and the running game. The rookie has been called upon to spell Cook on early downs. Veteran Ty Johnson would command the passing downs work if Cook suffered an injury. Blowouts have given Davis several opportunities, averaging over eight carries per game over the last three contests. In a closer game, his touches are likely cut in half. Keep Davis on fantasy football benches against Houston.

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C.J. Stroud Oct 4 9:50am CT
C.J. Stroud

The Buffalo Bills defense/special teams draws the Houston Texans in Week 5. The Texans are averaging a shade under 20 points per game, and their offense has taken a step back with Joe Mixon (ankle) sidelined. He's trending toward missing another game, which should slow down the Houston offense. However, Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are one of the best wide receiver duos in football, and C.J. Stroud has little issues connecting with them. Stroud also limits his turnovers (two interceptions). The Texans' quarterback is sixth in the league in sacks taken (13). However, one of Buffalo's best pass rushers, Von Miller, is suspended for four games and will miss this contest. There are better DST options on the waiver wire this week. Fantasy managers can pass on Buffalo.

From RotoBaller

Dalton Kincaid Oct 4 9:40am CT
Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid is the TE7 on the season, despite an up-and-down campaign so far. Kincaid hasn't topped 50 yards in any game and has only finished as a TE1 once. Fantasy managers can trust Kincaid's floor, especially given the state of the tight-end landscape. Josh Allen should throw the ball more often in what projects to be a more competitive matchup between Buffalo and Houston. Kincaid could see more targets if Khalil Shakir (ankle) is forced to miss the contest. The Texans surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to the position through four weeks, but the competition (Kylen Granson, Cole Kmet, Johnny Mundt, and Brenton Strange) isn't of Kincaid's caliber.

From RotoBaller

Curtis Samuel Oct 4 9:40am CT
Curtis Samuel

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel has played the fewest snaps of any Buffalo wide receiver this season but that could change in Week 5. Khalil Shakir (ankle) is in danger of missing the contest. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady stated to the media that he wants Samuel to be on the field more often. The veteran is averaging just 12 yards per game and secured three receptions or more just once. Samuel shouldn't be added to rosters in any standard-sized fantasy football league, but he's a name worth monitoring on Sunday, especially if Shakir is sidelined.

From RotoBaller

Devon Achane Oct 4 9:30am CT
Devon Achane

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane will have his work cut out for him this week when the team takes on the New England Patriots in Foxborough. The second-year back started the season off hot with back-to-back seven-catch games and 20+ fantasy-point outings. However, he's cooled over the last few weeks, with Miami posting just 15 total points combined over the two contests. New England has been one of the more stout defenses against opposing rushing attacks thus far, allowing just 4.0 YPC -- the seventh-best mark in the league. Despite this, the Texas A&M product could still leave his mark on this game if he can recapture his work in the passing game from early September. The Patriots' D has been easier to throw on this year, letting up the sixth-most yards and fourth-most yards per play (7.1) through the air, and that's likely where Miami will have to beat them to succeed. Achane is RotoBaller's PPR RB17 in this week's rankings and projects as an RB2 with upside.

From RotoBaller

James Cook Oct 4 9:20am CT
James Cook

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook suffered through the worst fantasy performance of his season in Week 4 but should bounce back against the Houston Texans. Cook was removed from the game due to a negative game script against the Ravens. He logged just 10 touches for under 50 yards. The game script on Sunday versus Houston should fare better for Cook's fantasy production. However, the Texans' defense is stronger against the run than the pass, and they've allowed the fewest passing yards to opposing running backs. The Bills shouldn't have many issues moving the football on offense, setting up more high-value opportunities for the lead running back. Start Cook across the board.

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Tutu Atwell Oct 4 9:20am CT
Tutu Atwell

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell has now posted back-to-back weeks with WR3 finishes and even boasted a 90% snap share in their Week 4 loss against the Chicago Bears. Atwell hauled in four of his six targets for 82 yards in that contest while receiving a 21% target share. Since Cooper Kupp (ankle) has already been ruled out again, Atwell will look to capitalize on more opportunities against a Green Bay Packers secondary that has been quite generous to opposing receivers. In fact, the Packers give up the ninth-most fantasy points to receiver groups in half-PPR formats with an average of 30.3 fantasy points per game. That gives Atwell some nice flex appeal for fantasy managers in half or full-PPR formats that might be dealing with some injuries or bye weeks.

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Keon Coleman Oct 4 9:20am CT
Keon Coleman

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman could be called upon more often against the Houston Texans on Sunday. Top wide receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday and is at risk of missing the game. If he does, Coleman and Dalton Kincaid should see a target bump. Still, it would be risky for fantasy football managers to trust the rookie in starting lineups. He'll see a lot of cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. on the outside and hasn't garnered enough target volume to be relied upon. Coleman is in the WR5 range against the Texans.

From RotoBaller