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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
D.J. Moore Jul 31 10:14am ET
D.J. Moore

Dynasty | The Bears have signed wide receiver DJ Moore to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: It's the largest contract extension in team history and pays Moore $110 million over four years with nearly $83 million guaranteed. This contract puts him right in line with megastuds Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown in terms of receiver contracts. The Bears struck gold last year by trading the top pick in the NFL Draft to the Panthers for what ended up being Caleb Williams (this year's #1) and Moore. After a 96/1,364/8 season, Moore is now locked in long-term and remains a low-end WR1 moving forward. Meanwhile, the Bengals and Cowboys are clearly losing any leverage with Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb, respectively.

Joe Milton III Jul 31 10:10am ET
Joe Milton III

New England Patriots quarterback Joe Milton III was selected in the sixth round of the 2024 NFL Draft following a six-year college career. The six-foot-five gun-slinger spent his final three seasons at Tennessee and started in 16 games. Last year, he completed 64.5% of his passes for 2,769 yards, 20 touchdowns, and five interceptions and added six touchdowns as a runner. He's been recognized for his rocket arm, but accuracy has been a concern throughout his career. However, according to Evan Lazar of Patriots.com, he has had a promising start to training camp. "With most of the attention on Brissett and Maye, Milton has put together a solid start to camp," Lazar wrote. "He has the liveliest arm I've ever seen in person, and that's not hyperbole. Milton's arm strength shrinks the field, and his drive throws are more impressive than his deep ball." While this is a positive report, the Patriots also added veteran Jacoby Brissett this offseason and drafted North Carolina's Drake Maye in the first round of April's draft, so he has almost no opportunity for playing time.

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Javon Baker Jul 31 10:00am ET
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New England Patriots rookie wide receivers Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker figure to play significant roles in their rookie seasons given the weak group of veteran pass-catchers on the roster. Evan Lazar of Patriots.com reports that the rookie duo has been "as advertised" to start training camp. "Polk has been featured with other regulars in the Patriots offense as a reliable underneath target," Lazar wrote. "As for Baker, he had a string of days with highlight-reel grabs. If all goes according to plan, the Patriots would have a big play (Baker) and possession (Polk) receiver, and that's how it's looked in practice." Polk was selected in the early second round of April's draft, which will likely give him a leg up against Baker, who was taken in Round 4. That said, the Patriots have a difficult target pecking order to navigate, and the passing offense will likely have limited upside under quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye. The future sounds bright for the rookie teammates, but both are likely stronger dynasty league options than 2024 fantasy studs.

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Andrei Iosivas Jul 31 9:50am ET
Andrei Iosivas

The Cincinnati Bengals drafted Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but 2023 sixth-round pick Andrei Iosivas could have a lead on him in the battle for the WR3 job following Tyler Boyd's departure. "For all the hype of Burton and his potential to make an impact filling the role vacated by Boyd, there's just no way to avoid the Andrei Iosivas hype," Paul Dehner Jr. of the Athletic said. " He's been the offensive star of camp, a trend that continued after his initial eye-popping debut playing in the slot for the first time in his life Wednesday." Dehner Jr. noted that Bengals wide receiver coach Troy Walters called Iosivas the team's third-best wide receiver last week. This position battle will be important to monitor in fantasy football, especially since Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have failed to play a full 17-game schedule over the last two years. Iosivas caught 15 passes for 116 yards and four touchdowns in his rookie campaign, but his path to playing time is a lot more clear heading into Year 2. He should be on the fantasy football radar as a late-round dart throw in best ball setups and deep fantasy leagues.

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Romeo Doubs Jul 31 9:40am ET
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Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs reportedly had a "fantastic" Spring earlier this offseason, and he has been a standout performer during training camp. The 2022 fourth-round pick has tallied 101 receptions for 1,099 yards and 11 touchdowns through his first 30 NFL games, and he posted an incredible 151-yard performance in his first postseason game last January. He often gets overlooked in the crowded Green Bay receiver room, but all signs point toward him remaining a key target for quarterback Jordan Love. "It has been really cool watching Romeo over these last three seasons; the steps he makes every single year," offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. "His route-running right now has been pretty tremendous. He's always had super-strong hands but the routes that he's putting on tape right now are pretty impressive and he ended the season last year, the last half of the season, he was playing at a pretty high level. He's really continued that in camp so far." Doubs has an average best-ball ADP around the 106 slot, while teammates Jayden Reed and Christian Watson come off the board well before him. If Green Bay's offense takes another step forward in 2024, Doubs could be a tremendous middle or late-round value heading into his third NFL campaign.

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Jalen McMillan Jul 31 9:30am ET
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Chase Claypool Jul 31 12:20am ET
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Russell Wilson Jul 30 9:50pm ET
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D.J. Moore Jul 30 9:20pm ET
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Arik Armstead Jul 30 7:40pm ET
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