Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk has earned a starting job in the team's crowded WR room. Polk has been a regular contributor in the Patriots' top offensive unit this week. The 22-year-old second-round rookie out of Washington looks to offer New England some help in the receiving corps after the club fielded a historically poor offense in 2023, and his fantasy upside in Year 1 is likely to remain limited largely due to the uncertainty at quarterback. Although Polk doesn't grade out as an overly talented athlete based on workout metrics, and his college production was overshadowed by rookie first-rounder and former teammate Rome Odunze, he could end up seeing a decent amount of volume in 2024 as a WR5/6 fantasy flier at the end of drafts this summer.
Las Vegas Raiders rookie first-round tight end Brock Bowers (foot) missed Tuesday's training camp practice after he sat out of the second preseason game on Saturday against the Dallas Cowboys due to a sore foot. Bowers' foot injury is worth watching with the 2024 regular quickly approaching in several weeks, but as of right now, his injury doesn't appear to be serious enough to make him questionable for the Week 1 regular-season opener against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers. The 21-year-old from Georgia was the 13th overall pick in April and figures to immediately serve as Vegas' top pass-catching TE over Michael Mayer. Volume-wise, it's possible that Bowers is the No. 2 pass-catcher behind WR1 Davante Adams, making him worth a fantasy draft selection as a low-end TE1. The 6-foot-4, 265-pounder could be a beast in yards after the catch in his first year in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk had another meeting on Monday, and talks continue to progress on a long-term contract extension, according to sources. There has been movement on a deal, but there are some minor details that still need to be ironed out with ownership approval. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been close to acquiring Aiyuk in a trade, but the Steelers' latest offer on a long-term extension has reportedly pushed the 26-year-old first-rounder back to the negotiating table with his current squad. At this point with two weeks remaining before the start of the 2024 regular season, it seems likely that Aiyuk will remain in San Fran, regardless of whether an extension is agreed upon. The Niner reaching an extension with Aiyuk in the next several weeks is the likeliest outcome, which would be the best possible news for fantasy managers that have already drafted Aiyuk as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (back) returned to training camp practice on Tuesday. Kamara didn't exactly do much in a light practice session on Tuesday, but it was a good sign nonetheless to see him back in action after being held out since Aug. 13 with back tightness. It remains to be seen if the Saints will want the 29-year-old veteran to play at all in the preseason finale this Sunday against the visiting Tennessee Titans, but either way, it looks as though he'll be good to go for the Week 1 regular-season opener in early September. The five-time Pro Bowler averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in 2023 for the second time in the last three years, but he made up for it by catching 75 passes for 466 yards in 13 games. Kamara is obviously more attractive in point-per-reception fantasy leagues as an RB2, but if his volume dips at all in the passing game, we could see his fantasy value crater very quickly.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots rookie tight end Jaheim Bell suddenly found himself at the top of the depth chart early this week with Hunter Henry (lower body) and Austin Hooper (undisclosed) held out of practice and Mitchell Wilcox (calf) leaving practice early with his injury. Bell has taken a lot of reps and caught touchdowns from three different quarterbacks as he is making the most of the opportunity on the field with several tight ends ahead of him out for recent practice sessions. While Bell should not be drafted in fantasy football for 2024, he could be somebody to keep an eye on if injuries continue to strike the tight end room. The 23-year-old from Florida State should get plenty of work in the Patriots' final preseason game against the Washington Commanders on Sunday night.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco's rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (shoulder) won't be practicing with the team this week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan did leave a glimmer of hope that Pearsall could play in the 49ers preseason finale on Friday against the Las Vegas Raiders, but it's looking like that window is closed. There is still some time between now and the 49ers Week 1 opener against the Jets on September 9, but Pearsall may not be heavily involved due to him missing critical installation time, especially with Brandon Aiyuk not practicing. For fantasy purposes, Pearsall is merely a late-round contingency pick in the event of an injury to Deebo Samuel or Aiyuk. The path to playing time seems a bit murky even then, as Jauan Jennings is also involved at wide receiver.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said that the healthy starters will play on Friday, including starting quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield stated that he isn't expecting to play too much, so it's important to play well when they're out there. With the Buccaneers hosting the Miami Dolphins this Friday in their final preseason tune-up, Mayfield and company will get a handful of game snaps and then make way for other players further down the depth chart. Notably, Mayfield did not suit up for the Bucs' second preseason matchup against the Jaguars. The team looks to keep its starting quarterback healthy after posting a 28-touchdown season in 2023 while adding over 4,000 passing yards. Mayfield still has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so all is well in Tampa for this passing game. At worst, Mayfield is a streaming quarterback option in fantasy, but he could be a low-end fantasy starter in a pinch if the matchup is right.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (hamstring) exited Saturday's preseason contest with the Buffalo Bills and was ruled out with a hamstring injury. Head coach Mike Tomlin spoke on Tuesday, saying "He is probably out for this week, but not anything that's a long-term concern." Tomlin is putting a positive spin on a negative with Warren, but the fact is Warren may miss multiple weeks and as of now, Warren's Week 1 status is in jeopardy. When healthy, Warren is one of the biggest sleeper candidates in fantasy football, as he's part of a two-headed backfield with Najee Harris and now is coached by one of the preeminent offensive coordinators for his skills, Arthur Smith. Warren was an upside RB2 before this injury but is probably more of a high-end RB3 in fantasy with some of the concern about his hamstring.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper (undisclosed) did not practice on Tuesday, per Zac Jackson of The Athletic. Despite not practicing, Cooper was present for the team's walkthrough in the middle of the practice session. Though Cooper did leave practice on Thursday during 11-on-11 drills, the specific reason or injury was not made known. Head coach Kevin Stefanski did note that Cooper was "sore." The unquestioned top wide receiver for the Browns entering 2024, the 30-year-old Cooper put up a career-high 1,250 receiving yards in his 2023 campaign. Cooper is a worthwhile pick as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in fantasy football drafts as a stable floor play with a dash of upside. Even with the team adding Jerry Jeudy in the offseason, Cooper is still the top dog in the pecking order for quarterback Deshaun Watson.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara (back) is participating in practice Tuesday, Aug. 20.
From TheHuddle
Updating a previous report, Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper (undisclosed) did not participate in practice Tuesday, Aug. 20, but did participate in the walkthrough.
From TheHuddle
Minnesota Vikings tight end Robert Tonyan (back) returned to practice Tuesday. Tonyan had been out of training camp and the preseason since July 31. Tonyan was still a limited participant in practice. He only participated in positional drills and sat out of the team portion of practice. His return is a welcome one for the Vikings' depth at tight end as starter T.J. Hockenson (knee) continues to recover from a torn ACL and MCL. Tonyan recorded 11 receptions for 112 yards and no touchdowns with the Chicago Bears in 2023. The 30-year-old signed with the Vikings in May as a veteran depth piece. He is unlikely to be a major fantasy contributor in 2024, especially once Hockenson returns.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan suggested that running back Christian McCaffrey's (calf) obsession with practice reps has him unconcerned with the running back's calf strain. When speaking with reporters on Tuesday, Shanahan explained that McCaffrey is so deliberate with every rep he can take when healthy, that the missed time should not affect his ability to perform at a high level. McCaffrey is the engine that drives the 49ers offense. He finished 2023 with 1,459 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns to go along with 67 receptions for 564 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. McCaffrey is currently the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy despite the injury. Shanahan's interview should only serve to appease fantasy manager worries about drafting McCaffrey.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (back) returned to practice on Tuesday. Charbonnet sat through the Seahawks' second week of preseason with back tightness. Charbonnet finished his rookie season in 2023 with 462 rushing yards, 209 receiving yards, and one rushing touchdown. He still appears to be squarely behind Walker in the Seahawks' pecking order. With a new regime entering the fold, fantasy managers will need to see how these backs will be deployed at the start of the season. For now, Charbonnet is merely a high-quality insurance back.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is reportedly having promising contract talks with the team, according to owner and general manager Jerry Jones. Lamb has been holding out during the preseason and training camp as he seeks a contract extension. Lamb finished 2023 with 1,749 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns on a league-leading 135 receptions. He is fully worth a top-of-the-market wide receiver extension. The Cowboys are cutting contract negotiations dangerously close to the regular season. All Cowboys fans and fantasy managers can do is hope that the two sides can come to an agreement in the next few weeks.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (hamstring) was back in team drills on Tuesday. Stafford left a joint practice with the Dallas Cowboys with hamstring tightness last week. The Rams have remained cautious with the injury. All reports have suggested that the coaching staff was unconcerned about the injury. Stafford returned to individual drills on Monday. Tuesday's ramp-up to team drills suggests that the injury may be progressing well. Stafford threw for 3,965 yards and 24 touchdowns in 15 games in 2023. Stafford is highly important to the fantasy success of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams as well as the Rams' success as a whole. For now, Stafford's injury should be monitored by fantasy managers to ensure that he returns to play fully healthy before Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (undisclosed) exited team drills at Tuesday's practice and did not return. Little information is available on Barkley's status. Given Barkley's relatively extensive injury history, any potential injury news is concerning. Barkley ran for 962 yards and six touchdowns and added 41 receptions for 280 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games with the New York Giants in 2023. Barkley is joining an Eagles squad with the No. 2 PFF-ranked offensive line. He figures to meet or succeed his 2023 numbers in a significantly better offense in 2024. As a second-round pick in fantasy, Barkley could be one of the game's best values. With draft season in full swing, fantasy managers should keep a close eye on this situation to ensure that it does not need to impact draft strategies.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is confident in the backfield's one-two punch of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, according to Adam Schultz of Athlon Sports. "I watch [Ekeler] and I'm like, 'This guy is tremendous,'" Kingsbury said. He's as quick and as fast and as strong as I've seen him. Have just been really pleased. The compliment of him and [Robinson] is great. You have a power back who has great hands and then you have a quick-twitch smaller guy who's been a 100-catch guy in the NFL. So, couldn't be more pleased with that one-two punch and the different things that we'll be able to do with both those guys." Evidently and perhaps unsurprisingly, the Commanders are expecting good things from the combination of Robinson, a younger power back, and Ekeler, a veteran with experience as an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield. Robinson is the preferred fantasy option given his expected volume and touchdown opportunities, but it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which both backs are starter-worthy options in fantasy football this year.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts tight end Jelani Woods (toe) will miss "considerable time," head coach Shane Steichen told Stephen Holder of ESPN.com. "I don't have a timetable on it," Steichen explained. Holder added that Woods' absence will extend into the regular season and could impact roster decisions. The Colts have plenty of options with Woods, including a potential injured reserve placement before or after rosters trim down in one week. None of the Colts' tight ends are appealing options in fantasy football this year, but an injury to Woods could create some additional opportunities for the team's top two players at the position, Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox.
From RotoBaller
Extension talks between the Cincinnati Bengals and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase have been "mysterious," according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. This situation is particularly unique because, as Schefter notes, Chase still has two years left on his current contract. That's what makes these negotiations different from those between the Dallas Cowboys and CeeDee Lamb, as well as the San Francisco 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk. The Bengals are reportedly willing to strike a deal with Chase before the season, but Week 1 isn't a firm deadline in the team's eyes. On the other hand, Schefter highlighted recent comments from former NFL receiver Chad Johnson who believes that the two sides are making progress, but Chase might be inclined to hold out if he doesn't have a deal by the start of the season. As of now, the chances of that happening are slim, but should he miss time, Tee Higgins would be the Bengals' top receiver and a borderline WR1 in fantasy football. Fantasy managers must continue to monitor this situation in hopes of gaining more clarity before the regular season kicks off next month.
From RotoBaller