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The Weekly Bender: Follow the Coaching Movement

Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer

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Coaching Changes


When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.

But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.

When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.

But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.

Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.

The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.

The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.

And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.

Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.

Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.

Bender out.

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Player Notes
Jake Bates Aug 11 8:20am CT
Jake Bates

Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates "had a rotten day [on a Friday in early August], missing at least a half-dozen field goals," according to Dan Graziano of ESPN.com, who attended training camp that day. (It bears mentioning that he converted his lone attempt in Week 1 of the preseason from 53 yards out.) Bates latched on with the Lions after an impressive run in the UFL, and while he's currently Detroit's only kicker, the team could look to bring in competition or a replacement. As Graziano writes, "It doesn't sound like this was a new problem, and you wonder if the Lions will end up looking elsewhere for their kicker before camp is out." Randy Bullock is the consensus top kicker available in free agency at the moment, but that could change as teams shake up their rosters over the next few weeks.

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Tutu Atwell Aug 11 8:20am CT
Tutu Atwell

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell is losing ground on the competition for WR3, but even if he drops to fourth on the depth chart, the team still has a plan for him. "The Rams run enough 11 personnel that the fourth receiver should get a healthy run," writes Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. "Atwell's quickness and speed make him a unique matchup, and he can play all three receiver spots in the Rams' offense. So barring a great offer, the Rams would rather ride out his contract year with hopes that he maximizes his role." Atwell hasn't quite lived up to expectations in three years since the Rams drafted him with a second-round pick, but he did start to come on strong last year (39 catches, 483 yards, and three touchdowns) when Cooper Kupp missed time due to injury.

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Taysom Hill Aug 11 8:10am CT
Taysom Hill

New Orleans Saints versatile playmaker Taysom Hill's role could look "slightly different" this season, according to Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. However, the team still expects to take advantage of his versatility. "Hill could play up to five positions fullback, running back, quarterback, tight end, and wide receiver," the two insiders wrote. "That doesn't mean he will play all five, but the Saints have those options available." Hill was an intriguing threat on offense once again last year, catching 33 passes for 291 yards and two touchdowns, rushing for 401 yards and four touchdowns, and passing for 83 yards and a touchdown. His production often fluctuated on a week-to-week basis, but managers benefitted from his big-play ability. He remains an appealing fantasy option given his positional eligibility at tight end.

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Jake Haener Aug 11 8:10am CT
Jake Haener

New Orleans Saints quarterbacks Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener (skin cancer) "are in a true battle for QB2," according to Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. While some teams say the role is up for grabs but have a clear favorite, that doesn't appear to be the case in New Orleans, where it truly is up for grabs between Rattler and Haener. "The key is, do we have a [QB2] or do we have two [QB3s]?" head coach Dennis Allen asked. "Two [QB3s] doesn't help you. So you want to see who steps up and earns the job. And that's what training camp is all about." In terms of the competition, Rattler has draft capital on his side; the Saints spent a fifth-round pick on him less than four months ago. Haener, meanwhile, has experience in the New Orleans system after spending all of 2023 in their organization. It's also worth noting that Haener, a fourth-round pick last year, recently underwent treatment for a rare form of skin cancer on his cheek, but it's not expected to impact his playing ability. This will be a fascinating positional battle to watch, though neither quarterback has much redraft appeal.

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Dalvin Cook Aug 11 8:00am CT
Dalvin Cook

The Dallas Cowboys could have running backs Miles Sanders and Dalvin Cook on their short list of targets as the regular season gets closer, according to Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN. The insiders note that the Cowboys are still evaluating their backfield, which is currently headlined by Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, and have started monitoring a few external options in case they feel the need to make an addition. Sanders is one of those players, and there's also a connection with Cook, who previously expressed interest in playing for the Cowboys. The latter is currently a more feasible option than the former given that Sanders is still under contract with the Panthers, but there's been speculation that he could be on Carolina's roster bubble. If the Cowboys do make a move at running back, it would add another confusing element for fantasy managers to decipher. Elliott, Dowdle, and the addition would presumably all be thrust to the low-end RB3 range while we try to figure out each back's expected usage.

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Jalen Tolbert Aug 11 8:00am CT
Jalen Tolbert

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert appears ready to have a big season, according to Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. "Tolbert looks the part of an NFL receiver now after a few early-career hiccups," they wrote. "[Dak] Prescott looks his way early and often in practice. Look for a big Year 3 for him." Tolbert appeared in all 17 games last season, making six starts along the way. He ultimately caught 22 passes for 268 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Now, the 25-year-old is competing for the No. 3 receiver role with Jalen Brooks, and it sounds like Tolbert might have the early advantage. Even if he's stuck playing behind CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks, Tolbert could display some fantasy relevance given that the Cowboys have a successful offense and are expected to throw the ball a lot. He's an intriguing end-of-draft option in deeper redraft leagues.

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Jelani Woods Aug 11 7:50am CT
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Indianapolis Colts tight end Jelani Woods "has yet to put together a day where he stood out" in training camp, according to Destin Adams of A to Z Sports. Woods missed all of last season due to injuries to his hamstrings, making it crucial that he use this summer's training camp and preseason to showcase himself. That hasn't happened, though, as the 25-year-old continues to drop passes and run with the second-team offense. As of now, Adams speculates that Woods is behind Moe Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Drew Ogletree, and Will Mallory in the pecking order. Such a dynamic would certainly leave Woods on the roster bubble with less than a month until the NFL regular season kicks off.

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Joe Burrow Aug 11 6:30am CT
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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow completed five of seven passes for 51 yards and a touchdown during Saturday's preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The star quarterback (and the primary offense as a whole) only played the first drive of the game, but they took advantage of their limited playing time by putting seven points on the board. For Burrow, injuries have been a major storyline throughout his young career. He missed six games as a rookie and seven last year, creating significant problems for the Bengals and fantasy managers alike. The wrist injury he suffered late in 2023 seems to have healed, but Cincinnati will likely continue to exercise caution with their franchise quarterback as Week 1 approaches. Once the season kicks off, Burrow will rank as a strong QB1 option for as long as he can stay healthy.

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Logan Woodside Aug 11 6:30am CT
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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Logan Woodside completed eight of 12 passes for 149 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions during Saturday's preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Woodside didn't enter the game until the fourth quarter, which means he's third on the depth chart behind Joe Burrow and Jake Browning. Nevertheless, Woodside might have inched a bit closer to the backup job by limiting incompletions, racking up yards, and leading a scoring drive. He still faces a challenge to surpass Browning on the depth chart, but Saturday's game was a step in the right direction. He'll presumably get two more opportunities to showcase himself as the Bengals move through their preseason schedule this month.

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Jake Browning Aug 11 6:30am CT
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Jermaine Burton Aug 11 6:20am CT
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Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Jermaine Burton converted four targets into three catches for 82 yards and a touchdown during Saturday's preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Burton has generated plenty of hype during his first training camp, so it was a bit of a surprise that he didn't enter the game until the third quarter and wasn't targeted until the fourth. Nevertheless, he made the most of his time on the field, leading the Bengals in receiving yards and also hauling in a 37-yard touchdown pass. A third-round pick out of Alabama, Burton continues to compete for the No. 3 receiver role with Trenton Irwin and Andre Iosivas. He's an appealing dynasty option, but it's a bit premature to pursue him in most redraft leagues.

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Tee Higgins Aug 11 6:20am CT
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Marquise Brown Aug 11 6:00am CT
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Dareke Young Aug 11 4:20am CT
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George Holani Aug 11 4:00am CT
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Seattle Seahawks running back George Holani found the end zone in Saturday's 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Holani entered the game after three straight Kenny McIntosh touches gave Seattle first down on the Chargers' 11-yard line. After taking the handoff he deftly bounced outside when his lanes up the middle were jammed, found the edge, and ran it in. The undrafted rookie out of Boise State finished the game with six carries for 24 yards and two receptions for another six yards through the air. Fellow rookie Kobe Lewis led Seattle's backfield with 10 carries. Both running backs are competing with McIntosh to see who will sit directly behind Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet on the depth chart. Their next opportunity for game action will come against the Tennessee Titans on August 17.

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Sam Howell Aug 11 3:40am CT
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Quarterback Sam Howell enjoyed a win in his debut with the Seahawks on Saturday. Howell went 16-for-27 for 130 yards and a touchdown as a passer in Seattle's 16-3 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. He also gained 17 yards on four rushes. The Chargers' aggressive pass rush kept pressure on Howell throughout the game resulting in several throwaways and broken plays. Howell's first score in a Seahawk uniform was a 13-yard touchdown pass to tight end Brady Russell early in the second quarter. The former Washington Commander came to Seattle via trade in the offseason to back up veteran Geno Smith, who was held out of the preseason game as a precaution. Howell will next be in action when Seattle takes on the Tennessee Titans on August 17.

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Trent Taylor Aug 11 2:00am CT
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San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Trent Taylor led the team in all-purpose yards in Saturday night's 17-13 loss at the Tennessee Titans. Taylor, 30, hauled in three receptions on six targets for 48 yards and ripped off a 21-yard gain on his lone carry. The Louisiana Tech product was drafted by San Francisco in 2017 but spent two years in Cincinnati before signing with Chicago in 2023, where he worked almost exclusively returning punts. Taylor is currently competing with a large number of receivers to make the roster. It's unlikely that Taylor will become fantasy-relevant in 2024. However, if you squint, you might see Taylor as the best Deebo Samuel, Sr. impersonator available in the 49ers' receiver room should something happen to the real deal.

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Jordan Mason Aug 11 1:20am CT
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San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason led the team in rushing in a 17-13 preseason loss at the Tennessee Titans. He finished the night with six carries for 34 yards and a touchdown while failing to haul in his only target in the passing game. Mason, 25, spent last year alternating between second and third in the 49ers' depth chart, getting most of his looks when all-world back Christian McCaffrey and fellow backup Elijah Mitchell were unavailable. Although backfield competitor Tyrion Davis-Price has flown to Philadelphia this year, Mason may have an even tougher time finding the field in 2024 as the 49ers have retained Mitchell, traded up to draft Louisville's Isaac Guerendo in the fourth round, and welcomed back Matt Breida after a four-year hiatus. Mason outperformed Breida on Saturday -- the latter took six carries for zero yards -- but Mason would require an injury to McCaffrey to be fantasy-relevant even if he beats out Guerendo and Breida.

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Joshua Dobbs Aug 11 1:00am CT
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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Joshua Dobbs assumed second-half quarterback duties in a 17-13 loss at the Tennessee Titans on Saturday night. Dobbs, who raised some eyebrows in 2023 with the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings, signed with San Francisco in March to back up starter Brock Purdy. Dobbs finished the night completing 14 of 20 passing attempts for 146 yards and one interception to go with one rushing attempt, which went for a six-yard touchdown. The 29-year-old former aerospace engineering major looked mostly sharp, though he was sacked once for a 15-yard loss. Dobbs will go undrafted in fantasy leagues, but would likely be worth a waiver-wire look if Purdy were to miss time, especially with the rushing upside he showed last season and the potent offense he'd be running.

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Patrick Mahomes Aug 10 10:40pm CT
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes looked sharp in limited action in Saturday night's preseason defeat to the hosting Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium, completing three of his four passing for 27 yards in the loss. Mahomes made a cameo on Saturday against Jacksonville, leading a scoring drive in the first quarter before his evening came to an end. After posting a career-low 4.5% touchdown rate and a career-worst 14 interceptions across 16 appearances last season, the 28-year-old three-time Super Bowl MVP is a clear positive regression candidate for 2024. While Mahomes' supporting cast looks much improved from what the Chiefs fielded in Week 1 of last year, Marquise Brown (shoulder) went down with a shoulder injury in this one, while Rashee Rice remains at risk of getting suspended at some point this year. All in all, Mahomes is a surefire top-shelf QB1 pick in the early rounds of fantasy drafts this summer.

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