Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
The Detroit Lions are still planning to have running back Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener. "Gibbs, our plan is get him going next week. He's trending the right way and we're hoping day after the Pittsburgh game, I think we're going to get a lot of guys back," head coach Dan Campbell said. The Lions play their preseason finale this Saturday against the Steelers, so hopefully Gibbs will return to practice this Sunday and be ready for the start of the 2024 regular season in the first week of September. The 22-year-old second-year back has missed more than a week of training camp due to a hamstring injury, and while some fantasy managers may have moved him down their draft boards as an RB1 because of the injury, he may not end up missing any time at all to begin the year. Gibbs finished as the RB10 in half-PPR leagues in his rookie season and is currently ranked as RotoBaller's No. 6 RB.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said that all of the team's starters are expected to play in the preseason finale on Saturday in Seattle against the Seahawks. Most notably, it means that quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) will make his preseason debut after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in 2023. When Watson takes the field this Saturday, it will be his first NFL game action since Week 10 of last year. The 28-year-old former 12th overall pick by the Houston Texans in 2017 missed all of the 2021 campaign due to a season-long suspension and has played in 12 combined games for the Browns the last two years due to injuries. Watson never looked comfortable running the offense in 2023 and will need to stay healthy and produce for fantasy managers to consider him as anything more than a risky, low-end QB2 option.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles rookie cornerback Cooper DeJean (hamstring) is getting outside-corner reps in team drills at training camp practice on Tuesday with the second-team defense. DeJean, the 40th overall pick in this year's NFL draft back in April, is a bit behind after injuring his hamstring in late July at the start of camp. In addition to working as an outside cornerback, DeJean is also seeing work with the backup defense out of the slot. It's not great that the 21-year-old defensive back is working with backups this summer, but the good news for the Eagles is that he's back on the practice field. With just two weeks until the start of the 2024 regular season, it would be surprising if the Iowa product is in Philly's starting lineup on defense in Week 1 of the regular season. He's hoping to play in the preseason finale against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (ankle, foot) went down at training camp practice on Tuesday with an apparent ankle/foot injury and was seen walking with a limp. It comes just as Johnson returned to the practice field after missing less than a week with a minor groin injury. It's not great news for the big offseason acquisition, but we'll have to wait for more word on the severity of Johnson's ankle/foot injury. When healthy, the 28-year-old former Pittsburgh Steeler has been one of second-year quarterback Bryce Young's favorite targets in training camp. The former third-rounder had his first 1,000-yard season in 2021 in Pittsburgh but has regressed since and even went without a touchdown in all of 2022. Carolina's offense figures to be better in 2024, and Johnson should be Young's top target when healthy, giving him WR3/flex value. Check back for more updates on Johnson's condition.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (hand) is dealing with a minor hand injury, according to NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe. The Pro Bowl wideout wore a removable brace on his right hand during practice on Tuesday, but he was in full uniform. Given Hill's steep cost in fantasy drafts, this is not great news, but it sounds like the ailment will not limit him when meaningful action begins next month. Since teaming up with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2022, Hill has averaged 119 receptions for 1,754 yards, and 10 touchdowns over the last two seasons. He's riskier than ever before since he turned 30 years old this offseason, but his week-winning upside makes him worth a top-three selection in all formats. His Week 1 matchup, the Jacksonville Jaguars, allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2023. He should get out to a hot start.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins EDGE Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) has been activated off the PUP list and is inching closer to a return. Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver praised Phillips, saying, "I'm certainly not counting that kid out of anything. He looks great. He looks like the Jaelan Phillips we all expect to see." Initially, there were concerns about whether Phillips would be ready for the start of the 2024 season, but now the focus has shifted to how many snaps he might play in the opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars and early in the season. Phillips did not participate in Saturday's preseason win over the Commanders, as the Dolphins are likely being cautious with their 2021 first-round pick. He may have another opportunity to play in Friday's preseason finale against the Buccaneers, but it's possible he may not suit up until the Week 1 game against the Jaguars. With Miami needing a solid pass rush, Phillips' return is crucial. If he can't return to form, it will boost Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle to produce even more offensively if the defense struggles.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers have waived cornerback Lamar Jackson (knee) with an injury designation. The third-year player from Nebraska, who was competing for a spot in the Panthers' secondary, was injured during Saturday's 15-12 preseason loss to the New York Jets. If Jackson clears waivers, he will be placed on the Panthers' Injured Reserve list, sidelining him for the entire 2024 season. However, if he and the team reach an injury settlement, he could return to play later in the season. Jackson, who went undrafted in 2020, initially signed with the New York Jets before being waived and has since had stints with the Jets, Chicago Bears, and Denver Broncos before joining the Panthers this offseason.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo has yet to decide on his starting quarterback for Week 1, stating, "When I know, I'll let you know." The competition remains tight between rookie first-round pick Drake Maye and veteran Jacoby Brissett. Brissett, who has been taking most of the first-team reps in training camp, brings experience with 48 career starts across five teams in his eight-season career. Meanwhile, Maye, the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, has steadily improved. He led the Patriots' offense to 10 points, including a rushing touchdown, during 25 snaps against the Philadelphia Eagles in preseason action. Mayo has praised Maye's commitment and progress since joining the team. The upcoming preseason finale against the Commanders will be crucial for the coaching staff to evaluate the quarterbacks in a game-like scenario. Regardless of who secures the starting role, neither quarterback is expected to have a significant fantasy impact.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Mike Williams (knee) is eager to return to team drills this week. After passing his physical and rejoining practice on August 7, Williams has been limited to individual drills while he recovers from a torn ACL. The 29-year-old has struggled with injuries in recent seasons, missing 19 games, including playoffs. Returning to team drills would give Williams two weeks to build chemistry with quarterback Aaron Rodgers before the Jets' season opener against the San Francisco 49ers on September 9. These reps are crucial for Williams, who joined the Jets this offseason with uncertainty about his readiness for Week 1. If he can stay healthy and develop a connection with Rodgers, Williams could become a valuable, though unpredictable, flex option in the Jets' passing game alongside top receiver Garrett Wilson.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon on quarterback Kyler Murray "leaps and bounds ahead" of last year. Murray was forced to miss the first half of the 2023 season while recovering from a torn ACL. The Cardinals went 1-8 without him and 3-5 in games he started. This summer has been smooth sailing for Murray, and Gannon said this week that the ability to focus on football is a good thing for the quarterback. Fortunately for the Murray believers out there, he showcased no significant ill after-effects of the ACL injury regarding his efficiency as a ball carrier. His 5.55 yards per carry over his eight games last season aligns with his career average 5.8. The emergence of tight end Trey McBride as a plus-level pass-catching option and the offseason acquisition of Marvin Harrison Jr. to Arizona's offense should provide Murray with two competent go-to choices in the passing game. Between the belief in the coaching staff and a pair of high-level playmakers, Murray is an intelligent middle-round target to aim for to fill your QB roster spot.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders have named Jayden Daniels their starting quarterback. Dynasty Analysis: No real surprise here as Daniels really wasn't challenged much by now journeyman Marcus Mariota in camp. He's been impressive in limited action and in training camp, so Washington clearly sees no reason to keep him on the bench. Daniels remains a top-2 pick in Superflex formats but also remains one of the bigger boom or bust players at the position we've seen in some time.
Dynasty | The Falcons are sitting quarterback Michael Penix Jr for the final preseason game. Dynasty Analysis: This seems unusual considering Kirk Cousins is the clear starter. However, the Falcons brass is simply saying they've seen enough of Penix to know what they have and don't want to risk injury. While camp reports have been glowing, we still haven't seen enough of him to really determine how good he may be and likely won't barring a catastrophe regarding Cousins. Penix remains a high upside player who dynasty managers will need to be very patient with.
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Russell Gage (undisclosed) was signed midway through training camp and jumped in immediately to find the end zone in his first practice. However, he suffered an undisclosed injury shortly thereafter and has only appeared on a side field while working with a trainer since. Time is running out for Gage to get healthy to make a case he belongs on the 53-man roster. Meanwhile, receiver Devontez Walker (rib) played just six offensive snaps in the second preseason game against the Falcons, and head coach John Harbaugh said afterward he's still dealing with a rib injury. The fourth-round rookie hasn't had many moments in practice during camp, has had few opportunities in games and has battled physical issues. It's highly unlikely Baltimore would outright cut a fourth-round selection, but Walker is running out of time to prove he warrants a game-day role when the regular season kicks off in two weeks.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens rookie fifth-round running back Rasheen Ali (neck) had a quiet start to training camp, struggled in short-yardage situations in the preseason opener against the Eagles and suffered what head coach John Harbaugh called a stinger. Ali hasn't been on the field since and didn't play in the second preseason game on Saturday against the Falcons. His top competitor for the No. 3 RB role, Owen Wright, caught a touchdown pass on Saturday. Ali has a lot of ground to make up on Wright this week and must first get back on the field at training camp. The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec suggests Ali isn't guaranteed a 53-man roster spot out of camp at this point, and the Ravens have cut or traded rookie fifth-round picks in two of the past three years. The 23-year-old obviously is not on the fantasy radar in redraft leagues right now.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Anthony Miller was signed a week ago and initially just looked like another fresh and healthy body to help get the Ravens through the preseason. However, Miller has made an instant impression with his speed and is at least in the mix late in training camp for a 53-man roster spot, according to The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec. It remains to be seen if he has done enough to pass Tylan Wallace on the receiver depth chart, though. Miller has made a few plays in just about every Ravens practice and had three receptions on three consecutive plays in the second preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons. The 29-year-old former second-round pick in 2018 by the Chicago Bears out of Memphis hasn't appeared in an NFL game since 2021, when he caught six passes for 25 yards and a touchdown in three games with Houston and Pittsburgh. Even if Miller somehow makes the final roster, he'll be coming off the bench for Baltimore.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver DJ Chark came up limping after the opening play of 11-on-11 work at training camp practice on Monday and was grabbing at his left-hip flexor. It's something to watch for the rest of the practice week and heading into the team's preseason finale this Saturday against the Dallas Cowboys. In his first year in LA, the 27-year-old is expected to help replace receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams alongside Joshua Palmer and rookie second-rounder Ladd McConkey in starting three-wide sets. Chark is no stranger to injuries -- he missed 22 games from 2020 to 2022 -- and if he's forced to miss time entering the start of the 2024 regular season, it will open up playing time for former first-rounder Quentin Johnston. Chark should be better than he was in 2023 in a bad Panthers offense if he can stay healthy this year, but he should be left to the waiver wire to begin the year in 12-team leagues.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo has been working with the first-team offense ahead of first-round pick Xavier Legette throughout training camp. Mingo and Terrace Marshall Jr. combined for three catches in Saturday's preseason loss to the New York Jets after each had a drop in the preseason opener, and it sounds like they'll be the more reliable bets for snaps in three-receiver sets with veterans Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen for quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers chose Legette with the final pick of Round 1 in this past spring's NFL Draft to augment their receiving corps, but the team may not thrust him into a featured role to begin Year 1. Fantasy managers in redraft leagues should consider Legette a dart-throw WR5/6 flier at the end of 12-team drafts this summer, but the 23-year-old wideout does have a chance to become Carolina's preferred deep threat at some stage of the 2024 season.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson looks leaner and quicker this year, and with a new contract signed, he's emerged as a confident leader for head coach Jerod Mayo's new program. Stevenson looked sluggish at times in New England's paltry offense a year ago, rushing for a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry over 156 attempts, so fantasy managers are hoping the drop in his weight gets him back up closer to the 5.0 YPC he put up across 210 carries back in 2022. The 26-year-old power back remains a volume-dependent RB2 option for 2024 in what is a rebuilding Patriots offense, and after catching 38 passes in 12 appearances last season, Stevenson's managers are hoping that receiving back Antonio Gibson doesn't take away too many targets out of the backfield this fall.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons LB Matt Judon is not pushing for a new contract after being traded to the team, he said on Monday, Aug. 19.
From TheHuddle
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Monday that the team's starters will play in Friday's preseason finale against the hosting Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. "You'd love to get maybe two quarters out of them," Pederson said. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence did not appear in Saturday's preseason win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and while Pederson seems to have an eye on extended reps for his star and veteran players on Friday against Atlanta, fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if the starters end up coming out of the game after a quarter of action. With Christian Kirk (calf) out of action for this week, fantasy managers will be looking out for Lawrence, star running back Travis Etienne, rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and veteran tight end Evan Engram in the final exhibition outing.
From RotoBaller