Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (calf) did an extensive workout on a side field at training camp on Thursday and appears to be getting close to a return to practice. It's great news for the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick and NFL's reigning rushing leader. McCaffrey is recovering from a calf strain that he suffered earlier this month and is not going to play at all in the preseason as a result. But as long as the 28-year-old All-Pro is on track to be ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener on Monday night against the New York Jets on Sept. 9, he'll remain the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy selection in upcoming drafts. As of right now, the 49ers don't seem worried that CMC will miss the start of the regular season, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on his progress.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (foot) shed his walking boot on Thursday and was working out in the weight room. Herbert had a walking boot on for exactly two weeks while he deals with a plantar-fascia injury in his foot. It's good news that the 26-year-old is out of his boot, but it remains to be seen when he'll actually rejoin his teammates at training camp practices as he prepares for the start of the 2024 season. As long as he doesn't have any setbacks with his foot, it's likely that Herbert will be ready for the Week 1 regular-season matchup against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert's fantasy stock was already on the decline before his foot injury with his top targets -- Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams -- all departing in the offseason and with a run-first offense expected under the new coaching staff.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (back) left individual drills on Thursday due to back tightness, which was later confirmed as a back injury, according to Katherine Terrell of ESPN. The rookie lineman was the 14th overall pick this year and is expected to step into a starting role to protect quarterback Derek Carr. His status for the team's next preseason game on Sunday is to be determined. Fuaga looked great in his first preseason game, as he allowed no pressures and received a pass-blocking grade of 77.2 from PFF. Having him healthy heading into the regular season will likely be the team's priority.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (unknown) was not at practice on Thursday night and the reason is still unknown. The star wideout rejoined his teammates on Monday after the birth of his son and has practiced as usual since then. His absence is more than likely a short-term deal but it would be worth monitoring as it remains to be seen if he suits up for a preseason game this year. The quarterback battle continues while Adams' fantasy impact weighs heavily on who wins between Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Trey Sermon (hamstring) continues to battle hamstring issues since suffering the injury during the team's first preseason contest against the Denver Broncos. The fourth-year back has separated himself as the leader for the backup position, but the hamstring issue has opened the door for the next two backs to move up the depth chart. Right now, Tyler Goodson seems to be leading that race with Evan Hull following him. Jonathan Taylor is still the workhorse of the backfield, however, so the fantasy impact of the backup competition will come to fruition if Taylor is hurt and has to miss any action.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte turned four targets into three catches for 23 yards during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. His longest play was a 13-yard reception. Boutte was the Patriots' most productive pass-catcher in the contest, leading the team in receptions and yards while tying for the most targets. The second-year receiver likely isn't going to be a fantasy weapon in 2024, but this performance should still be highlighted as it gives Boutte a stronger chance of making the roster and carving out a role down the stretch.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Javon Baker was targeted four times during Thursday's preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he finished the contest with just one catch for 12 yards. Even though the rookie's production was limited, fantasy managers should pay most attention to the fact that he tied for the team lead in targets. All four of the passes thrown his way came from rookie Drake Maye, who saw the field in the second and third quarters. Baker is worth a late-round pick in deeper fantasy leagues given that he could still carve out a meaningful role in the Patriots' offense this season.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye completed six of 11 passes for 47 yards during Thursday's preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles. He also showed off some mobility, rushing four times for 15 yards and adding a touchdown on the ground. After an uninspiring performance over a limited sample size last week, Maye earned more opportunities this week and finally showed flashes of a potential starting quarterback. It's still unclear whether he'll start over Jacoby Brissett when the regular season comes around, but this appearance was promising nonetheless. Specifically, fantasy managers can get excited about the fact that the Patriots dialed up a designed run around the goal line for the rookie.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett completed just three of seven passes for 17 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Brissett played the entire first quarter, leading three unsuccessful drives, the middle of which saw the Patriots move close to the goal line before Brissett threw a costly interception in the end zone. This uninspiring outing falls in line with less-than-glowing reports out of Patriots training camp, suggesting that the gap between Brissett and rookie Drake Maye may be shrinking. As of now, Brissett's experience probably still gives him the slight edge for QB1 in New England, but it should be noted that Maye had a very good performance Thursday against Philadelphia.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 18 yards on six carries during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. He was not targeted in the passing game. Stevenson, of course, saw all of his reps come with the first-team offense. Even though he only played in the first quarter, he led the Patriots in touches and rushing yards. Fantasy managers can't (and shouldn't) take too much stock in Stevenson's appearance Thursday, but it does bear mentioning that his quarterback situation is still a bit murky as Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye continue to battle for the starting job. Regardless of which quarterback gets the bulk of the reps in 2024, Stevenson should be heavily involved both on the ground and in the passing attack.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Joseph Ngata caught all five of his targets for 88 yards during the team's 14-13 preseason win over the New England Patriots. The second-year receiver flashed similar skills on occasion last preseason but spent most of his time on the practice squad. There is a fight for the final few receiver spots between Ngata, veteran John Ross, and E.J. Jenkins, but Ross has seen plenty of reps with the second team in practice and has seemed to have the most buzz out of the group this preseason. If Ngata can have another strong outing next week, perhaps he can nab one of the final roster spots. If not, expect the young receiver to latch onto the Philadelphia practice squad.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Will Shipley took five carries for 15 yards and caught all four of his targets for 31 yards during the team's 14-13 win over the New England Patriots. Kenneth Gainwell again got the start Thursday night with the second-team offense but was replaced much earlier this week by Shipley, who saw snaps with No. 2 quarterback Kenny Pickett. The rookie only saw one target last week, but was targeted by both quarterbacks throughout the game and was far more efficient with them than Gainwell. While Shipley may open the season as the No. 3 on the depth chart, he can easily push for passing down snaps and earn more playing time as the season rolls on unless Gainwell can step it up compared to last year. Neither will retain any fantasy relevance in redraft leagues unless Saquon Barkley misses time.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Tyrion Davis-Price took four carries for 28 yards and caught his lone target for no gain during the team's 14-13 win over the New England Patriots. The former San Francisco 49er did well with his touches but did not see playing time until late in the game and seems to be far behind Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley on the depth chart. The Eagles are looking to find their No. 4 back, and rookie Kendall Minton has been staving off Davis-Price for that final spot. The loser will likely land on the practice squad heading into the regular season. It will be interesting to see who gets in the game first during the Eagles' final preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings next Saturday.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy underwent surgery for a torn meniscus and is out for the season. Dynasty Analysis: There was hope his injury was a partial tear that could be trimmed but that wasn't the case and a full repair was needed. It's not catastrophic as McCarthy wasn't the presumed starter but his chance of starting later in the year are now gone. Sam Darnold will have a golden opportunity moving forward as the starter, though Minnesota could also kick the tires on some veteran options. McCarthy will likely fall a couple of spots in rookie drafts as a result.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee completed 15 of 19 passes for 140 yards and lost a total of four yards on four carries during the team's 14-13 win over the New England Patriots. Kenny Pickett was again the starter in this game but had another uninspiring performance while being sacked three times. The starters were rested again this week in favor of the second string, but McKee maximized his minutes this week as he pushes to make the roster as the emergency quarterback. For what it's worth, the 24-year-old was given reps with the second-team offense this past week and has been pushing Pickett for the No. 2 spot, but it is still seen as the No. 3 on the depth chart heading into the regular season.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks (knee) was seen in the blue medical tent early Thursday during practice due to knee soreness. According to Nick Harris of the team's site, it is "not expected to be a major concern moving forward." With star wideout CeeDee Lamb missing time due to a contract holdout, the Cowboys' offense has been leaning on Cooks early and often in practice. While this does not appear to be a long-term issue, it is worth mentioning that Jalen Tolbert is the third wide receiver on Dallas' depth chart, and it's quite the falloff after that. If the eleventh-year wideout's knee does not improve quickly, expect the Cowboys to seek veteran help at the position. Cooks is Yahoo!'s WR59 in ADP and could be a nice value in an offense that should funnel targets to him, Lamb, and Jake Ferguson.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Kenny Pickett completed 11 of 13 passes for 67 yards and added two carries for six yards during the team's second preseason game against the New England Patriots. The former first-round pick started the game with a quick three-and-out but led the offense down the field for a field goal on the second drive. Pickett was sacked three times on his second-to-last drive and was taken out at the start of the second half for Tanner McKee. The 26-year-old is averaging 6.2 yards per completion through two starts and has done little to impress, although he has played with no starting receiver thus far. McKee had a solid night and was getting more second-team reps this past week in practice, but there is little doubt that Pickett will head into the regular season as the No. 2 behind Jalen Hurts. Pickett will play against the Minnesota Vikings next Saturday, but may not get the start if the starters see action for the first time this preseason.
From RotoBaller
Updating a previous report, Philadelphia Eagles WR John Ross (concussion) suffered a concussion during the preseason game against the New England Patriots Thursday, Aug. 15.
From TheHuddle
Despite participating fully in one-on-one drills, Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (undisclosed) reportedly took just one snap during team drills at Thursday's practice. On one rep in particular, Njoku caught a touchdown but got up slowly and was seen walking gingerly away from the end zone. No clarity has been given on what or how severe the injury is, though Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski noted the veteran tight end is "sore." Fortunately, Cleveland's starters are not slated to suit up this weekend when the Browns face off against the Minnesota Vikings. Therefore, Njoku will have nine days to work back to health before a potential appearance during their preseason finale with the Seahawks on Aug. 24.
From RotoBaller
The Atlanta Falcons placed kick returner/wide receiver Jakeem Grant Sr. (hamstring) on injured reserve Thursday. Atlanta signed Grant to a one-year contract last Saturday, and he was expected to compete for a role as a return specialist. He injured his hamstring this week at practice, and it's unclear how much time he will miss. However, Grant could play again this year if he is able to reach an injury settlement with the team. The 2016 sixth-round pick was set to experience his first action this season since 2021 after suffering back-to-back season-ending injuries the previous two preseasons (Achilles, knee). With him and Rondale Moore on IR, Atlanta is expected to seek more depth behind Avery Williams to compete for kick returner duties.
From RotoBaller