Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White continues his strong showing during training camp with his fast and physical running style. Showing that he's a great fit for new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy's scheme, White has been bouncing off of defenders throughout practice on Tuesday. White received six carries for 23 yards and punched in a touchdown from two yards out in the first preseason contest against the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday as he sits perched on top of the depth chart at the running back position without much opposition. A breakout candidate in his third season as a pro, the former Georgia Bulldog is a worthwhile mid-round pick in fantasy drafts as an RB2 who could be a big value this season with Josh Jacobs now in Green Bay.
From RotoBaller
A growing rapport is developing between Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and third-year tight end Isaiah Likely. A fourth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina in 2022, Likely has been making waves over the last few days as Sunday's star of practice, along with numerous connections on Monday with Jackson. After Monday's practice, offensive coordinator Todd Monken stated, "We expect him to have a great year." Likely saw more time in 2023 when top tight end Mark Andrews was injured with a broken fibula, but with a quarterback who loves throwing to tight ends, Likely could see an uptick in work even with Andrews healthy. While Likely is a deeper-league pick in fantasy drafts, his involvement in the offense should be monitored if he sees more time on the field in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix will start his first game this Sunday at home against the Green Bay Packers in the second preseason game. Nix was a solid 15-of-21 passing for 125 yards and a touchdown pass while adding 17 yards on the ground. The offense under Nix scored two touchdowns, looking poised in his first action as a pro. Nix looks to carry this momentum with him into this Sunday's game with the Packers in front of a home crowd that will be excited to see the No. 12 pick from April's NFL Draft suit up. The quarterback situation for Week 1 of the regular season is up in the air at this point, but another strong performance from the former Oregon Duck will go a long way toward cementing his status as the starting quarterback to open the NFL season.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills recently evaluated former Tennessee Titans and New York Jets wide receiver Corey Davis during a tryout. Davis, who retired briefly before making a comeback, was the fifth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft and is looking to rejoin the league. Over his six-year career, Davis has accumulated 273 catches for 3,879 yards and 17 touchdowns. His standout season came in 2020 with the Titans, where he recorded career highs with 65 receptions, 984 yards, and five touchdowns. Afterward, Davis signed a three-year, $37.5 million contract with the Jets. The Bills' interest in Davis follows the placement of receiver Chase Claypool on season-ending injured reserve and comes in the wake of trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for a 2025 second-round pick earlier this offseason. In response, the Bills have also added Curtis Samuel through free agency on a three-year deal and selected Keon Coleman with their top pick in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys are still negotiating with wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, but a deal remains elusive. Despite over a year of discussions, the Cowboys' best contract offer has yet to reach Lamb's desired figure of nearly $35 million annually, in line with the Vikings' Justin Jefferson, the NFL's highest-paid non-quarterback. Lamb is not seeking to surpass Jefferson's salary, as acknowledged by Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones. Last season, Lamb played on a base salary of $2.52 million and will earn $17.991 million this year under the fifth-year option. He had a standout year in 2023, leading the league with 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns and earning his first All-Pro selection.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (undisclosed) missed practice due to undisclosed tightness. Head coach Mike Macdonald noted, "[Charbonnet] was tight this morning, so we're trying to figure out what's going on with him." While Charbonnet's availability for Saturday's preseason game against the Titans may be affected, it doesn't seem serious. Last season, Kenneth Walker III dominated the Seahawks' backfield, nearly doubling Charbonnet's usage and production. Walker finished as the RB19, while Charbonnet was the RB45 in full-PPR formats. If Charbonnet misses more practice time, Kenny McIntosh could step into the No. 2 role behind Walker.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals running back Emari Demercado (shoulder) has returned to practice and participated in Wednesday's joint session with the Colts. After missing the previous week of practice and the Cardinals' first preseason game against the Saints due to a shoulder injuryevident by the brace he woreDemercado is now working to get back up to speed. He will have a few days to prepare for Saturday's exhibition game against the Colts. It will be interesting to see whether Demercado or rookie third-round pick Trey Benson will receive the initial running back touches if Demercado is cleared to play. Before his injury, Demercado had been mixing in with the first-team offense and spelling starter James Conner, suggesting he could regain his role if Conner sits out again.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots are trading pass-rusher Matthew Judon to the Atlanta Falcons, addressing Atlanta's need for a top defensive player they have been seeking all offseason. In return, the Patriots will receive a third-round pick, aiding their efforts to rebuild a roster lacking talent and upside. In the final year of the four-year contract he signed with New England in 2019, Judon has a base salary of $6.5 million for the 2024 season. This salary was a big distraction during Jerod Mayo's first training camp as the Patriots' head coach. A four-time Pro Bowler with 66.5 career sacks, Judon will join a Falcons team aiming to bolster its pass rush as the regular season approaches.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (leg) is dealing with a leg injury that head coach Mike Macdonald indicated isn't severe. Tyler Lockett is coping with what Seahawks head coach Macdonald described as "a little something going on with his leg." Although Lockett was seen wearing pads at practice, he was relatively limited in his participation. Given Lockett's veteran status, the team is likely cautious about any potential injuries. This leg issue may impact his availability for the upcoming preseason game against the Titans, but it does not seem to be a serious concern. If Lockett is out for any period, second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba could see increased opportunities, stepping into the No. 2 wide receiver role behind DK Metcalf.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (hamstring) did not complete Wednesday's joint workout with the Cowboys due to hamstring tightness. Stafford played the first half of practice, including several 11-on-11 series, but left early as a precaution after feeling tightness in his hamstring. During the remainder of practice, backup quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett took over, with Garoppolo leading the first team and Bennett the second. While this issue does not appear to be severe, it raises some uncertainty about the Rams' prospects with Stafford at the helm. Last season, Stafford completed 62.6% of his passes for 3,965 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Hopefully, it will be a minor inconvenience rather than a long-term concern. Stafford will lead an offense with two early wide receiver picks, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and an early running back pick in Kyren Williams. If Stafford is hurt for any time, all of the Rams' playmakers would take a big hit.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Tyler Boyd (bruised foot) is currently dealing with a bruised foot but is expected to miss only a few days, according to head coach Brian Callahan. Boyd, who joined the Titans this offseason, is projected to be the No. 3 receiver behind Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins. If he can return healthy, he remains a solid late-round pick in fantasy leagues. Boyd's connection with Callahan, his former offensive coordinator with the Bengals, is a positive factor for his performance. However, the injury situation in the Titans' receiving corps is concerning, with Hopkins (knee) expected to be out for four to six weeks. This situation dampens Will Levis's sleeper potential, who now has two top receivers sidelined. On a positive note, Ridley will likely see an increase in targets, making him a value pick at his current ADP.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (ankle) was carted off the practice field on Wednesday with an apparent leg injury. After practice concluded, head coach Kevin O'Connell said it was an ankle tweak, and he's unlikely to practice on Thursday. However, he said the injury is not believed to be serious, and he thinks Addison is going to be "OK." This is a sigh of relief for the Vikings on a day it was announced that rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy (knee) would miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing surgery on his meniscus. While it doesn't appear Addison's injury will hold him out of Week 1 of the regular season, he still has a possible suspension looming stemming from a DUI charge earlier this offseason, so fantasy managers should stay tuned for that development.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns CB Denzel Ward (concussion) is going through the concussion protocol, according to head coach Kevin Stefanski.
From TheHuddle
Tennessee Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) is dealing with a bruise on his foot and could miss a few practices.
From TheHuddle
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (back) remained out of Wednesday's practice at training camp. Kamara is managing a back issue that he's dealt with in the past, and there appears to be a minimal amount of concern regarding the star back's health at this point. It's looking unlikely that he'll make an appearance in Sunday's preseason game against the hosting San Francisco 49ers, though. Kamara has plenty of risk in 2024 fantasy drafts while entering his age-29 season and witnessing his rushing efficiency decline in each of the last three years, but his role in New Orleans' passing game as quarterback Derek Carr's security blanket cannot be ignored. Last year, Kamara drew 87 targets despite missing four games via suspension, ranking third among RBs in full-PPR fantasy points per game (17.9). Until Kendre Miller (hamstring) is back at practice, Kamara remains a decent RB2 bet in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers quarterback Sean Clifford will start this week's preseason game versus the Denver Broncos on Sunday as Jordan Love won't play, head coach Matt LaFleur announced on Wednesday at training camp. Rookie Michael Pratt will serve as the backup quarterback on Sunday against the Broncos. After completing each of his two passes for 63 yards and a touchdown in last week's preseason opener against the Cleveland Browns, Love will take a seat this weekend before presumably returning to action for a regular-season tune-up against the Baltimore Ravens on Aug. 24. In an ascending Packers offense, the 25-year-old star signal-caller has his sights set on taking another leap forward in 2024 after closing as fantasy's overall QB5 in points per game (19.4) over 17 appearances in 2023 during his first year as Green Bay's full-time starter.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent CB Rudy Ford (Packers) signed an undisclosed contract with the Carolina Panthers on Wednesday, Aug. 14. Also, DE Kemoko Turay (undisclosed) was waived off injured reserve and CB Clayton Isbell was waived.
From TheHuddle
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (groin) is dealing with a mild groin strain and is considered day-to-day, head coach Dave Canales told reporters at Wednesday's practice during training camp. Soft-tissue injuries always have a chance to linger, but it would likely be an overreaction at this point to significantly alter Johnson's standing in fantasy rankings based on this development. It remains to be seen if he'll be able to return to practice ahead of Saturday's preseason game against the visiting New York Jets. Without very much competition surrounding him in Carolina's receiving corps, Johnson figures to be the focal point of the Panthers' passing game in 2024 as quarterback Bryce Young's top target. The 27-year-old veteran wideout is a WR3 with WR2 upside in the second half of fantasy drafts this summer.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver coach Connor Embree says that rookie Xavier Worthy has impressed him most with his ability to pick up the playbook quickly. Embree says he'll do more than Rashee Rice did as a rookie, but they're not going to overload him. With Marquise Brown (shoulder) sidelined for up to six weeks, however, Worthy may now have to take on a more pronounced role for the Chiefs in Year 1 than expected to begin the season. It's worth noting that Rice was consistently held under 60% of KC's offensive snaps per game during the first half of last year as a rookie before the team finally unleashed him during the second half. Worthy profiles as a young DeSean Jackson in many ways, and the 21-year-old first-rounder's stock is certainly on the rise in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts as quarterback Patrick Mahomes' likely top deep threat to start 2024.
From RotoBaller