Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
Houston Texans wide receiver Ben Skowronek (leg) returned to practice this week after being out for around a week with a leg injury. The former Ram was impressing in the early goings of training camp according to reports, but he was unable to play in their latest preseason game due to the leg issue. Now that he's back in practice, he'll continue to compete to be a part of one of the deepest receiver corps in the league. Just to make the team as a depth option, he'll be battling with Robert Woods, John Metchie III, and Noah Brown. If Skowronek does make the team, he's not likely to be a viable fantasy option any time soon.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Foster Moreau has battled numerous ailments throughout his career, most recently a rare ankle injury that he played through for most of last season. As Ross Jackson reports, no one has ever played with the same ankle issue Moreau had let alone played almost an entire season. Moreau said his brace that he played in was preventing one of his tendons from flipping over his ankle bone. Now, ahead of his sixth season in the NFL, he's been given a clean bill of health and he's ready to go for the Saints. On the depth chart, he's currently listed as the backup tight end behind Juwan Johnson, but Taysom Hill will likely encroach on plenty of snaps and receiving work as well.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) suffered a high-ankle sprain a couple of weeks ago and was expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks. During the team's most recent practice, Downs did not have a boot on his ankle anymore reports Jake Arthur of Sports Illustrated. The second-year receiver was in a boot and sometimes used a scooter to get around, so his ankle injury seems to be progressing in the right direction. He was still held out of the team's game on Thursday against the Cincinnati Bengals, but his timetable at least seems to be following the 2-to-4 weeks that they initially announced. Downs should get plenty of work in the slot alongside Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce when healthy. He's currently ranked as the 62nd WR in RotoBaller's half-PPR rankings.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Eagles have acquired wide receiver Jahan Dotson from the Washington Commanders. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders traded the former first round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a third-round pick and two seventh-round picks in 2025. It's a deal that kind of comes out of left field, though Dotson was reportedly being outplayed in camp by both Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheus. Dotson will slot in as the third receiver for the Eagles behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. It's a move that certainly doesn't help his dynasty value as the former first rounder won't likely see anything like the 83 targets he had last season.
Dynasty | Parris Campbell moves down the depth chart after the Eagles traded for Jahan Dotson. Dynasty Analysis: This trade represents a tough break for Campbell, who was trying to make a significant impact this year after a lost season with the Giants. Campbell and Dotson are different players but there simply aren't enough targets to keep everyone happy in the receiver room, especially when you keep in mind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are going to dominate targets anyway. Campbell is likely not a roster-worthy player at the moment.
Indianapolis Colts running back Demetric Felton ran the ball four times for 44 yards and a touchdown in the team's win against the Bengals. Felton also caught both of his targets for an additional eight yards through the air. Felton struggled with his first three carries, netting just four yards, eventually taking his final carry 40 yards for a touchdown to help seal the win for Indy. Felton didn't see action until the fourth quarter, playing behind Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Goodson, and Evan Hull, indicating he might be on the outside looking in for a spot in the rotation this season. That being said, with the injury to Trey Sermon (hamstring), the RB2 role is up for grabs and Felton made his case for it with his performance.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell caught two of his four targets for 18 yards and a touchdown in the team's win against the Bengals. Mitchell played alongside all of Indy's starters, confirming that he will likely run with the ones for the Colts this season. With Josh Downs (ankle) sidelined with an injury, Mitchell has a shot at competing for the No. 2 receiver in the offense behind Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy managers should prioritize Mitchell as a high-upside WR3/4 this upcoming season.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts tight end Kylen Granson caught two his three targets for 17 yards in the team's win against the Cincinnati Bengals. Granson's third and final target came from Anthony Richardson and was intercepted for a pick-six by Cincinnati. Granson played alongside all of Indy's starters in the first and second quarters, indicating that he locked up the job as TE1 for the Colts this season. While it's unlikely that the volume in the Colts' passing attack this season can propel Granson into fantasy relevance, fantasy managers can consider him a streaming option with a chance to be upgraded depending on how he is utilized.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Tyler Goodson ran the ball 13 times for 57 yards in the team's preseason win against the Bengals, leading the team in both categories. Goodson also caught two of his three targets for an additional ten yards in the air. For the third preseason game in a row, Goodson has come in as the second running back behind Jonathan Taylor and has seen impressive production in each game. While Trey Sermon (hamstring) is sidelined, Goodson appears to have locked up the RB2 role behind Taylor, making him a name to keep an eye on as a potential handcuff this season. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor this backfield as Goodson vies for the RB2 spot.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed eight of his 14 passes for 86 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception in the team's preseason win against the Bengals. Richardson carried the ball once for an additional three yards on the ground. The second-year QB found rookie WR Adonai Mitchell for a touchdown in the first quarter, following it up with a pick-six on the next drive. The former Gator played 25 snaps in the first and second quarters before being taken out. While it wasn't the most encouraging performance from Richardson, he is still a high-end QB1 in fantasy this season with his rushing upside and arm power.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman was the team leader in targets in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, but he only hauled in one of his four passes for six yards in the defeat. Hardman brought in a short six-yard reception from backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in a goal-to-go situation in the second quarter on Thursday against the Bears. After catching the game-winning pass for the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, Hardman is back to provide the club with some depth in the receiving corps, and there's not much reason to believe he won't be a part of the 53-man roster. The 26-year-old veteran deep threat isn't likely to play many snaps when KC's receiving corps is healthy, but he could see some more action in the early going with Marquise Brown (shoulder) currently sidelined.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney made an appearance in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, reeling in two of his three passes for 26 yards in the loss. Toney's long gain of the night came on a 20-yard reception from backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in the first quarter on Thursday against Chicago. It was an important performance for Toney, who is fighting to keep his roster spot as a cut candidate on the Chiefs this summer after an utterly disastrous 2023 season. Even if the 25-year-old former first-round pick keeps his job in KC's receiving corps, he isn't likely to be anything more than a gadget player who is used sparingly in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Deneric Prince flopped in his final chance to leave an impression in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, going backward for one yard on three rushing attempts and catching his lone pass for three yards in the defeat. Prince had a chance this summer to unseat incumbent veteran Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) as KC's No. 2 back as he deals with post-traumatic stress disorder, but Thursday's effort likely wasn't enough for him to seize the primary change-of-pace role behind workhorse starter Isiah Pacheco. The 24-year-old power back remains likely to make KC's roster as a third- or fourth-string RB, but undrafted rookie Carson Steele has turned heads during the preseason, and Keaontay Ingram also showed well on Thursday against the Bears.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Carson Steele impressed once again in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, rushing for 50 yards and a touchdown on just four carries in the defeat. Steele produced a 31-yard, tackle-breaking run to set up his own scoring plunge in the second quarter on Thursday against Chicago. The 21-year-old undrafted rookie out of UCLA has burst onto the scene with the Chiefs this summer, showcasing plenty of versatility and pass-blocking ability with his 228-pound frame. As KC's backfield hierarchy behind workhorse starter Isiah Pacheco remains murky, Steele has likely done enough during the preseason to make the 53-man roster as a fullback even if the team decides to employ four true RBs.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver/running back Velus Jones Jr. led the team in rushing in the team's preseason finale against Kansas City. The converted wide receiver is getting more looks in the backfield during training camp. He made the most of his opportunities Thursday night, tallying 13 carries for 111 yards. That included a 39-yard touchdown late in the third quarter. Jones also caught two passes for 11 yards. The 2022 third-round pick has yet to make an impact at wide receiver, so the move may be enough for him to make the final roster. He also projects to be Chicago's primary kick returner in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back Travis Homer rushed the ball four times for 13 yards and did not catch either of his targets in the team's preseason win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Homer got the start alongside other Chicago reserves and played a couple of series. The veteran's contributions on special teams may be enough for him to make the final roster. However, with Velus Jones Jr. making the transition to running back, it could spell trouble for the sixth-year veteran. If he does survive the final cuts, he'll be behind D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson on the running back depth chart.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Tyler Scott caught six passes for 99 yards in the team's 34-21 preseason win over the Kansas City Chiefs. He also rushed once for 17 yards to place the Bears in the red zone for an eventual touchdown. With several wide receivers resting and others injured, Scott played well into the second half. He still has the inside track to be fourth on the wide receiver depth chart behind DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and rookie first-round pick Rome Odunze. The 2023 fourth-round pick caught 17 passes for 168 yards in his rookie season.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Logan Woodside had a decent showing in Thursday's preseason loss to the Colts. The signal-caller went 16-for-21 passing for 98 yards. He also fumbled, although he made up for it by connecting with Jermaine Burton late in the contest for a touchdown. Of course, Joe Burrow is the No. 1 option in Cincinnati. However, with Burrow having issues staying healthy over the years, there's a chance Cincinnati may rely on their backups at some point in the season. While Jake Browning will likely keep his spot behind Burrow on the depth chart, Woodside may have done enough to secure a place on the roster entering Week 1. With that said, his value in both redraft and dynasty formats can't get much lower, especially while Burrow and Browning are healthy.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals running back Trayveon Williams led the way in the preseason loss to the Indianapolis Colts. He didn't do much in Cincinnati's first two exhibitions. However, the 26-year-old finished Thursday's contest by totaling a game-high 66 rushing yards off 11 carries, adding five catches for 11 yards. Williams, the No. 182 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, has spent his entire career with the Bengals. Yet, he's been limited to only 62 touches in 40 career games. With Williams behind Zack Moss and Chase Brown on the depth chart, his workload isn't expected to increase this season. As a result, managers won't look in his direction in most fantasy drafts, although there is streaming potential if Moss or Brown get hurt. The Bengals will begin the 2024-25 campaign with a Week 1 visit from the New England Patriots.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent threw for 57 yards on three completions and ran for a five-yard touchdown in the team's preseason finale Thursday night. The rushing score was set up by a 44-yard reception to wide receiver Nsimba Webster a few plays prior. Bagent played one more drive which resulted in a turnover on downs before getting the rest of the night off. The undrafted second-year quarterback is entrenched as the backup to Caleb Williams on Chicago's depth chart. He looks like one of the better backups in the NFL, picking up two wins in four starts as a rookie.
From RotoBaller