Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
Washington Commanders rookie third-round wide receiver Luke McCaffrey has not emerged as an obvious top-four wideout to open his first year in the NFL. However, McCaffrey showed the ability to play physical and even helped as a gunner in the second preseason game against the New York Jets, and he can help on underneath routes as he develops. It should come as a huge surprise, as he has played the receiver position for only two seasons. It's disappointing news for fantasy managers that took a flier on the 23-year-old from Rice, especially after the Commanders dealt Jahan Dotson to the Philadelphia Eagles this week. Washington's top four receivers appear to be Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus and veteran Jamison Crowder. McCaffrey still has a lot to learn and can be avoided in redraft fantasy leagues for now.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie first-round quarterback Jayden Daniels will not play in the preseason finale on Sunday night against the New England Patriots. It doesn't come as much of a surprise after the Commanders named the second overall pick as their starting QB on Aug. 19. Daniels ended up going 12-for-15 for 123 yards while carrying the ball three times for 16 yards and a touchdown in the two preseason games he appeared in. The 23-year-old signal-caller has done nothing but impress on and off the field this summer, which made the team's decision to name him the starter pretty easy. Washington's receiving depth is very thin beyond WR1 Terry McLaurin, which could be an issue for Daniels in his first NFL season, but his high-upside dual-threat abilities still put him on the QB1/2 borderline. Ideally, fantasy managers will be able to roster him as a high-end backup.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's John Keim writes that it's hard to overstate how much Washington Commanders rookie first-round quarterback Jayden Daniels has impressed his new teammates, thanks to both his on-field play and his off-the-field work ethic. Daniels' ball placement, accuracy and decision-making have all been praised this offseason. He completed 12 of his 15 passes for 122 yards and rushed for a touchdown in his first two preseason contests and was officially named the team's starting QB on Aug. 19. "I've played with a lot of first-time quarterbacks," receiver Terry McLaurin said, "and he plays like this is not going to be his first time playing in this league." It's no secret that the 23-year-old from LSU has all the tools to exceed in the NFL sooner than later, but it remains to be seen if he'll have enough help through the air to be a weekly QB1 option for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's John Keim says that Washington Commanders rookie second-round tight end Ben Sinnott will be one of the team's top-three tight ends this year. Sinnott's versatility is noticeable, as he's been used as a tight end and as a fullback in training camp. He hasn't exactly stood out with an ability to create separation from defenders, but he does excel at running after the catch -- a trait he showed in college at Washington. The 22-year-old caught all three of his targets for 57 yards in last week's preseason game against the New York Jets, but his work came with backup quarterbacks Jeff Driskel and Sam Hartman. Sinnott has plenty to like in dynasty/keeper leagues, but fantasy managers in single-year formats can ignore him for now while he tries to stand out behind starter Zach Ertz and John Bates in his first year in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice is our biggest positive mover this past week, seeing his ADP climb 11 spots. As the days continue to pass without a suspension, his ADP continues to climb. See where Rice goes in your next draft at RTSports, taking advantage of our happy hour. Get $25 back in bonus funds if you enter into a TFC between 1-6 PM ET. Sign up here: https://www.fantasychampionship.com/draft-lobby.
Chicago Bears rookie first-round quarterback Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in this year's draft, has made things look effortless at times in the preseason and during training camp. However, there have also been times when Williams shows he's still a rookie while processing how to dissect coverages he's seeing for the first time. Beyond the splashy plays, the ability to navigate pressure and pull things off that can't be taught, what has impressed coaches and teammates the most has been seeing Williams find the answers to what's stumping him in real time. "In terms of what I learned from him is what I've said all along: He always rises to the challenge," head coach Matt Eberflus said. The 22-year-old was the most pro-ready QB prospect in the draft and has all the weapons he needs in Chicago to make a serious rookie-year impact for the Bears and fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie first-round wide receiver Rome Odunze has found ways to stand out in a crowded receivers room during training camp and the preseason while building a connection with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. "He's polished," wide receiver Keenan Allen said. "You don't have to teach him how to play receiver." He's still experienced learning moments this summer, like when his feet were out of bounds upon catching a pass in the end zone in last week's preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he's also shown he's not an average rookie. Odunze has highlighted the explosive element he brings to Chicago, but he's likely to struggle for consistency in his first year in the NFL as the No. 3 behind Allen and DJ Moore. Even then, fantasy managers will want to target him as a WR4/flex in standard-sized leagues because of his immense upside and polish.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo said that quarterback Jacoby Brissett will start Sunday's preseason finale against the Washington Commanders, and all four of the team's QBs will play, including rookie first-rounder Drake Maye. The Patriots will keep things the same after the veteran Brissett started the first two preseason games. The 31-year-old has so far gone 3-for-10 for just 17 yards and an interception in four drives played in the preseason, and he's going to need to do better this Sunday if he wants to hold off Maye for the starting gig entering the 2024 regular season. Brissett's inconsistency in the preseason and in training camp has opened the door for Maye, who got his first reps with the starting unit in practice this week. Brissett probably still has the slight edge in the competition because of his experience in the NFL, but he probably won't be able to hold Maye off long in 2024.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett will start the preseason finale against the Washington Commanders on Sunday, Aug. 25.
From TheHuddle
Houston Texans wide receiver Ben Skowronek (leg) returned to practice this week after being out for around a week with a leg injury. The former Ram was impressing in the early goings of training camp according to reports, but he was unable to play in their latest preseason game due to the leg issue. Now that he's back in practice, he'll continue to compete to be a part of one of the deepest receiver corps in the league. Just to make the team as a depth option, he'll be battling with Robert Woods, John Metchie III, and Noah Brown. If Skowronek does make the team, he's not likely to be a viable fantasy option any time soon.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Foster Moreau has battled numerous ailments throughout his career, most recently a rare ankle injury that he played through for most of last season. As Ross Jackson reports, no one has ever played with the same ankle issue Moreau had let alone played almost an entire season. Moreau said his brace that he played in was preventing one of his tendons from flipping over his ankle bone. Now, ahead of his sixth season in the NFL, he's been given a clean bill of health and he's ready to go for the Saints. On the depth chart, he's currently listed as the backup tight end behind Juwan Johnson, but Taysom Hill will likely encroach on plenty of snaps and receiving work as well.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) suffered a high-ankle sprain a couple of weeks ago and was expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks. During the team's most recent practice, Downs did not have a boot on his ankle anymore reports Jake Arthur of Sports Illustrated. The second-year receiver was in a boot and sometimes used a scooter to get around, so his ankle injury seems to be progressing in the right direction. He was still held out of the team's game on Thursday against the Cincinnati Bengals, but his timetable at least seems to be following the 2-to-4 weeks that they initially announced. Downs should get plenty of work in the slot alongside Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce when healthy. He's currently ranked as the 62nd WR in RotoBaller's half-PPR rankings.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Eagles have acquired wide receiver Jahan Dotson from the Washington Commanders. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders traded the former first round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a third-round pick and two seventh-round picks in 2025. It's a deal that kind of comes out of left field, though Dotson was reportedly being outplayed in camp by both Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheus. Dotson will slot in as the third receiver for the Eagles behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. It's a move that certainly doesn't help his dynasty value as the former first rounder won't likely see anything like the 83 targets he had last season.
Dynasty | Parris Campbell moves down the depth chart after the Eagles traded for Jahan Dotson. Dynasty Analysis: This trade represents a tough break for Campbell, who was trying to make a significant impact this year after a lost season with the Giants. Campbell and Dotson are different players but there simply aren't enough targets to keep everyone happy in the receiver room, especially when you keep in mind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are going to dominate targets anyway. Campbell is likely not a roster-worthy player at the moment.
Indianapolis Colts running back Demetric Felton ran the ball four times for 44 yards and a touchdown in the team's win against the Bengals. Felton also caught both of his targets for an additional eight yards through the air. Felton struggled with his first three carries, netting just four yards, eventually taking his final carry 40 yards for a touchdown to help seal the win for Indy. Felton didn't see action until the fourth quarter, playing behind Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Goodson, and Evan Hull, indicating he might be on the outside looking in for a spot in the rotation this season. That being said, with the injury to Trey Sermon (hamstring), the RB2 role is up for grabs and Felton made his case for it with his performance.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell caught two of his four targets for 18 yards and a touchdown in the team's win against the Bengals. Mitchell played alongside all of Indy's starters, confirming that he will likely run with the ones for the Colts this season. With Josh Downs (ankle) sidelined with an injury, Mitchell has a shot at competing for the No. 2 receiver in the offense behind Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy managers should prioritize Mitchell as a high-upside WR3/4 this upcoming season.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts tight end Kylen Granson caught two his three targets for 17 yards in the team's win against the Cincinnati Bengals. Granson's third and final target came from Anthony Richardson and was intercepted for a pick-six by Cincinnati. Granson played alongside all of Indy's starters in the first and second quarters, indicating that he locked up the job as TE1 for the Colts this season. While it's unlikely that the volume in the Colts' passing attack this season can propel Granson into fantasy relevance, fantasy managers can consider him a streaming option with a chance to be upgraded depending on how he is utilized.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Tyler Goodson ran the ball 13 times for 57 yards in the team's preseason win against the Bengals, leading the team in both categories. Goodson also caught two of his three targets for an additional ten yards in the air. For the third preseason game in a row, Goodson has come in as the second running back behind Jonathan Taylor and has seen impressive production in each game. While Trey Sermon (hamstring) is sidelined, Goodson appears to have locked up the RB2 role behind Taylor, making him a name to keep an eye on as a potential handcuff this season. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor this backfield as Goodson vies for the RB2 spot.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed eight of his 14 passes for 86 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception in the team's preseason win against the Bengals. Richardson carried the ball once for an additional three yards on the ground. The second-year QB found rookie WR Adonai Mitchell for a touchdown in the first quarter, following it up with a pick-six on the next drive. The former Gator played 25 snaps in the first and second quarters before being taken out. While it wasn't the most encouraging performance from Richardson, he is still a high-end QB1 in fantasy this season with his rushing upside and arm power.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman was the team leader in targets in Thursday's preseason loss to the visiting Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium, but he only hauled in one of his four passes for six yards in the defeat. Hardman brought in a short six-yard reception from backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in a goal-to-go situation in the second quarter on Thursday against the Bears. After catching the game-winning pass for the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, Hardman is back to provide the club with some depth in the receiving corps, and there's not much reason to believe he won't be a part of the 53-man roster. The 26-year-old veteran deep threat isn't likely to play many snaps when KC's receiving corps is healthy, but he could see some more action in the early going with Marquise Brown (shoulder) currently sidelined.
From RotoBaller