Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
Alex Barth reports that New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Javon Baker seems to have fallen out of the top receiver rotation for the Patriots. Selected in the fourth round of this past April's NFL Draft, Baker isn't making plays as regularly as he was at the start of training camp. Barth reports that "based on his practice reps, it doesn't look like he'll have a big role in the offense once the season starts." Given the shaky depth of the Patriots' receiver room, it looked like Baker could work his way into the regular rotation, but it's not looking that way now. Baker looks like he's on the outside looking in for regular work heading into Week 1, so you can leave him undrafted in seasonal fantasy formats. If an injury strikes, Baker could be somebody to watch.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots rookie first-round quarterback Drake Maye took a big step on Wednesday as he took his reps with the projected starting offense during padded practices and competitive drills at training camp. In any of the first 17 practices, Maye took zero reps with that projected starting unit. Maye did not throw a pass with that unit, but getting on the field with that grouping was the next step for his development. While it's looking more likely that veteran signal-caller Jacoby Brissett will begin the season as the Patriots' starting quarterback, the third-overall pick Maye should eventually take over at some point in 2024. For fantasy circles, Maye offers plenty of mobility and a strong arm, so he should be considered on the waiver wire once he's tabbed to start this season for New England.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Saints running back Kendre Miller's roster spot seems to be in doubt. Dynasty Analysis: Miller has been unable to practice most of camp and Head Coach Dennis Allen has repeatedly made comments about him being tough to evaluate when he's hurt. While it seems early for the Saints to give up on Miller, it's clear New Orleans is losing patience with their young running back and his roster spot certainly doesn't seem to be guaranteed at the moment. This is a story to watch as the Saints have precious little depth behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
Dynasty | Jerry Jones said Trey Lance has earned a roster spot. Dynasty Analysis: Lance has been solid in the preseason completing 40-of-64 passes for 339 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, while adding 78 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in two contests. He may not win the backup job over Cooper Rush but Jones is "guaranteeing" he makes the final roster. He may still be a trade target out there for a QB-needy team at some point in the season so dynasty owners should keep him on their short list if he isn't already rostered.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos have named Bo Nix their starting quarterback. Dynasty Analysis: As expected. The Broncos promoted a "competition" between Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson but Nix was the heavy favorite after Denver jettisoned Russell Wilson. Sean Payton clearly has all his eggs in the Nix basket, so he was going to do all he could to make this a reality. Nix helped him out by having a solid preseason and looking like he has veteran poise already. Nix will be a QB2 to start but he's certainly in position for early success.
New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen said he doesn't think wide receiver Rashid Shaheed's (toe, foot) injury will keep him out for an extended period of time, and he's not dealing with turf toe. Shaheed's injury caused him to miss the second preseason game last weekend against the San Francisco 49ers. While the 25-year-old might not be able to play in the preseason finale this Sunday versus the Tennessee Titans, Allen's comments on Wednesday at least make it sound like he'll have a chance to be ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener in two weeks. The former undrafted free agent from Weber State entered last year as the team's WR3 behind Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, but his involvement in the offense didn't really increase all that much after Thomas' season-ending ankle injury. Shaheed is still probably more useful to the Saints as an All-Pro kick returner, but he could also have a bigger role in the offense in 2024, making him a more palatable boom/bust WR4/5 wideout.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers WR Trent Taylor (undisclosed) and WR Danny Gray (undisclosed) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Aug. 21.
From TheHuddle
There have been concerns about Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin's stationary preseason usage in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, but ESPN's John Keim doesn't think it should be a big talking point since the Commanders aren't going to show everything they plan to do in preseason contests. Keim doesn't think McLaurin will be stationary on the outside once the regular season begins, and McLaurin has even said himself that he's playing more of the slot this year. It especially makes sense for Washington to move the 28-year-old pass-catcher around because they are looking for other wideouts to step up behind him so far in training camp and the preseason. McLaurin had a fourth straight 1,000-yard season in 2023 but also posted career-lows in yards per catch (12.7) and yards per target (7.6). If his target share improves, McLaurin could be a steal as a WR3/flex in 12-team leagues, but he'll also be working with a rookie QB.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys are signing veteran defensive tackle Linval Joseph, who played with the Buffalo Bills last season. In his return to defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's system, Joseph will receive $2.5 million guaranteed, potentially earning up to $4 million. Now entering his 15th NFL season, Joseph has previously played for the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills. A two-time Pro Bowler from East Carolina, Joseph won a Super Bowl with the 2011 Giants as a starting defensive tackle. Last season, he recorded 12 tackles and one sack in seven games with Buffalo, joining the team as a free agent in early November. This move is part of the Cowboys' effort to strengthen their defensive line during training camp, joining new additions like Jordan Phillips, Carl Lawson, and Al-Quadin Muhammad. The Cowboys' ability to build a formidable line around All-Pro Micah Parsons could make their defense a strong option in fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward (concussion) remains in the concussion protocol more than a week after sustaining the injury during an August 12 practice. Ward has yet to return to practice, and Coach Kevin Stefanski confirmed on Wednesday that he was diagnosed with a concussion. This marks Ward's fifth documented concussion since being drafted by the Browns in 2018. Last season, Ward played 13 games, recording 34 tackles, one forced fumble, two interceptions, and 11 defended passes. Recovery from a concussion involves rest and time, with no specific treatment to hasten healing. While Ward is sidelined, expect Cameron Mitchell and Tony Brown to see increased roles with the Browns' first-team defense. The Cleveland Browns defense is highly regarded for 2024 and could be a valuable late-round fantasy pick, though losing Ward would be a significant setback.
From RotoBaller
Updating a previous report, free-agent DT Linval Joseph (Bills) agreed to terms on a one-year contract with the Dallas Cowboys Wednesday, Aug. 21, worth as much as $4 million, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo and Tom Pelissero. The deal includes $2.5 million in guaranteed money.
From TheHuddle
Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor is enthusiastic about rookie first-round wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.'s progress, stating, "You can see his development and the player he's becoming. He's already showing more than we saw before, and he's still far from reaching his peak, even two weeks or 18 weeks from now." This is promising news, especially given earlier reports that Thomas was lagging in camp. The Jaguars traded down from No. 17 to No. 23 in the 2024 NFL draft to select Thomas, making him the fourth receiver off the board and initiating a receiver surge in the final 10 picks of the first round. Thomas had a standout college career, catching 28 passes for 359 yards and two touchdowns in 2021, followed by 31 catches for 361 yards and five touchdowns in 2022, and then a breakout 2023 season with 68 catches for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns. While Thomas may not be the safest weekly option compared to others, he's a strong pick if you're looking for a potential WR4 or WR5 to develop into a significant contributor later in the season.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent DT Linval Joseph (Bills) agreed to terms with the Dallas Cowboys Wednesday, Aug. 21, according to a source. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions right tackle Penei Sewell (foot) left practice with a potential foot injury. Sewell was hurt on the third play after the Lions returned from a simulated halftime. He briefly sat on the ground following a block on a Jared Goff incompletion and was attended to by trainers before limping to the sideline, where they examined his left foot after he removed his shoe and sock. A few plays later, Sewell hobbled to the locker room with the help of a trainer. Sewell, who has started 50 of 51 games over the past three seasons at both tackle positions, has played every offensive snap in the last two years, made two consecutive Pro Bowls, and signed a four-year, $112 million extension this offseason, making him the highest-paid offensive tackle in the NFL. If Sewell is sidelined for an extended period, it would significantly impact Detroit's offense, especially their strong running game with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, as Sewell is one of the league's top run-blockers.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen is concerned about Kendre Miller's (hamstring) availability. Allen noted, "All I can go off of is what I've been able to evaluate, and frankly, since we drafted him, there hasn't been much new information other than what I saw on college tape because he hasn't been available." The 2023 third-round pick has struggled with knee, hamstring, and ankle issues as a rookie and is still sidelined by a new hamstring injury after leaving the first training camp practice early. Allen added, "He's talented, but I'm unsure if he can grasp the system because I haven't seen him on the field." With Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams likely starting the season as the top running backs and Miller sidelined, the No. 3 spot will be filled by either Jordan Mims, James Robinson, or a new addition after cuts.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (back) participated in team drills on Wednesday, marking his most complete practice in over a week, though his reps were still limited. Head coach Dennis Allen expressed confidence in the team's running back depth, stating, "I think we've got guys that can play in the NFL, so that's not a concern of mine." Despite missing four games last seasonthree due to suspensionKamara finished second among running backs in receptions (75) and targets (86). He averaged 89.2 scrimmage yards per game, scored six touchdowns, and caught a career-high 87.2% of his targets. Apart from concerns about age and potential injury, Kamara is poised to be a solid RB2 in drafts, particularly in PPR leagues, if he remains healthy leading up to the season.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers rookie wide receiver Roman Wilson (ankle) and rookie offensive tackle Troy Fautanu (knee) will not suit up for the preseason finale on Saturday against the Detroit Lions. Wilson sprained his ankle almost three weeks ago and will end up not playing at all in the preseason. Fautanu sprained his knee in the preseason opener but said on Tuesday that he expects to be physically ready to go for the Week 1 regular-season opener, where he's likely to start at right tackle. Wilson, a 23-year-old third-round pick, has lost plenty of important developmental time this summer heading into his first year in the NFL, but he could still have a substantial role eventually given Pittsburgh's lack of receiving depth behind George Pickens. For now, though, fantasy managers in standard 12-team leagues can probably avoid him on draft day.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running backs Elijah Mitchell (hamstring), Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (undisclosed) have all returned to training camp practices in the last two days. The only Niners running back out of practice still is starter Christian McCaffrey (calf), but he's been doing heavy work on the side. Mitchell will now try to hold off Jordan Mason for the RB2 role in San Fran. Although McCaffrey will end up missing the entire preseason, the 49ers aren't worried that he'll miss the start of the regular season. The 26-year-old former sixth-rounder in 2021 out of Louisiana would become a weekly fantasy option if CMC were to miss extended time, but Mitchell has battled injury issues of his own in his three years in the NFL and has played in a total of 27 games (12 starts) since entering the league. Guerendo is behind in his development heading into his rookie year, but he, too, could be a threat to Mitchell's spot on the depth chart eventually in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (arm) was removed from practice early on Wednesday due to "general arm soreness," according to Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN. The Browns' head coach, Kevin Stefanski, later said that this was a precautionary move and that he's "not overly concerned." Watson has missed most of the last few NFL seasons due to injuries and issues off the field, but he was a fantasy superstar back in 2020 with the Houston Texans, throwing for a league-high 4,823 yards and a career-high 33 touchdowns. The Browns organization and fantasy managers alike now hope that the 28-year-old can regain that form and have a productive season as the team's QB1, but until that happens, he's best drafted as a QB2 with upside.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans tight end Dalton Keene (knee) tore his ACL in Saturday's preseason game against the New York Giants and will be out for the entire 2024 season. He was placed on injured reserve. This is a tough blow for the former third-round pick, projected to make Houston's Week 1 roster. Keene will now hopefully go through a successful rehab and compete once again for a roster spot in 2025. This doesn't change too much about the Texans' current TE situation, as Dalton Schultz remains the team's No.1 option at that position.
From RotoBaller