Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler believes Arizona Cardinals running back Trey Benson is likely to cede the majority of rushing attempts to James Conner in 2024. After totaling 1,040 rushing yards in just 13 appearances last season, Conner is locked in as Arizona's lead back to start the campaign. However, the Cardinals selected Benson with the second pick in the third round of the NFL Draft to provide a change of pace in the backfield for this year. It's also worth noting that Conner is riding an expiring contract in 2024, which would figure to make him a trade candidate when we get closer to the deadline around midseason. Benson, 22, profiles similarly to a young J.K. Dobbins based on workout metrics, and he's unlikely to see more than the occasional carry on early downs as an RB4/5 luxury stash in fantasy drafts while Conner is around and healthy in the desert.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals offensive tackle Orlando Brown believes running back Chase Brown is primed for a breakout year in 2024. "If I could play fantasy football, I'd take him as my first running back," the four-time Pro Bowl left tackle said of Brown. "He's going to have a year. I guarantee it. Special talent, special player." Brown represents a popular late-round pick as an RB4 for fantasy managers this summer, ranking 12th among qualifiers at his position in full-PPR fantasy points per opportunity (0.91) in his rookie season a year ago. Incumbent veteran Zack Moss is set to start the season as Cincinnati's lead back, but the Bengals figure to be more inclined to get Brown involved as a change-of-pace back after workhorse starter Joe Mixon's offseason departure to the Houston Texans. Brown, 24, should at least see plenty of usage in the passing game after posting 11.1 yards per catch over 14 receptions in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills plan to play quarterback Josh Allen and the team's healthy starters for a quarter and half of Saturday's preseason game against the hosting Pittsburgh Steelers. The playing time could change depending on the weather, considering there is rain in the forecast at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday. Allen as well as the star and veteran players made a brief appearance in last week's preseason opener against the Chicago Bears, but weather permitting, it sounds like fantasy managers will get a more extensive look at Buffalo's first-team offense on Saturday against the Steelers. One of the top storylines to watch is how the Bills' receiving corps might shakes ou; third-year receiver Khalil Shakir, veteran wideout Curtis Samuel, and rookie second-rounder Keon Coleman have yet to separate much in terms of ADP this summer.
From RotoBaller
When the Kansas City Chiefs signed wide receiver Marquise Brown (shoulder) as a free agent this offseason, he immediately became their most accomplished and experienced wideout. The Chiefs are expecting Brown back in their lineup early in the season but not necessarily in time for the Sept. 5 regular-season opener against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes said the Chiefs are feeling his absence. "We lose a little bit of that veteran-type receiver in that room," Mahomes said on Thursday. "We have other guys that can replace him a little bit, but to have that much talent and have a good understanding of what I want hopefully we're getting him back sooner rather than later." Mahomes dealt with a league-high 35 dropped passes by his pass-catchers in 2023, and he'll likely have to lean on tight end Travis Kelce as well as receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy to begin 2024.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen said on Friday at training camp that wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (toe/foot) is dealing with either a toe or foot injury. Allen wasn't sure when sharing the news with reporters, so with the extent of the issue not yet known, it's something for fantasy managers to monitor going forward. It's fair to expect the Saints to take a cautious stance and hold Shaheed out of Sunday's preseason game against the hosting San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium at the very least. The 25-year-old former undrafted wideout has carved out a significant role in New Orleans' passing game as a formidable deep threat opposite star receiver Chris Olave, racking up 15.6 yards per catch across 46 receptions last season. Shaheed should be considered day-to-day until more clarity becomes available.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Bills have released wide receiver Chase Claypool. Dynasty Analysis: This seemed inevitable when he was placed on IR earlier in the week. He'll get an injury settlement and be free to sign with another team when he's healthy. Claypool has been battling a toe injury and was unable to much of anything this off-season for Buffalo, who seemingly lost patience with his status and was unable to wait for him to heal. Claypool should latch on somewhere but we haven't seen anything to get us excited in years now. He's best left on waivers in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Drake Maye completed 6-of-11 passes for 47 yards in Thursday's preseason game against the Eagles, adding four carries for 15 yards and a touchdown. Dynasty Analysis: Maye's numbers don't really reflect how well he played. He looked calm in the pocket and had one significant deep pass dropped. After the game, Jerod Mayo said the competition between Maye and Jacoby Brissett isn't settled and that's significant news as Maye was not expected to be considered to start week one as of two weeks ago. Clearly making strides, Maye continues to be a solid top-5 pick in Superflex leagues.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (back) was not spotted at Friday's practice. That makes a third consecutive absence at training camp due to a back issue for Kamara, who appears all but certain to sit out Sunday's preseason game against the hosting San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Fantasy managers shouldn't be concerned with Kamara's injury at the moment, but it would certainly be encouraging to see him back on the field at some point next week with the regular season quickly approaching. It doesn't help the Saints that there remains no sign of second-year back Kendre Miller (hamstring) at practice. Veteran power back Jamaal Williams makes sense as a bench stash in deep fantasy leagues while New Orleans' backfield remains banged up, and he figures to draw the start on Sunday against San Francisco.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals agreed to terms on a three-year, $16.5 million contract extension with kicker Evan McPherson on Friday, according to his agents. McPherson will earn $10 million in new money in the first year of the deal, the most ever for a three-year kicker extension. The 25-year-old former fifth-round pick in 2021 out of Florida earned his extension by making 83.9% of his 93 field-goal attempts in his first three seasons in the NFL with the Bengals, including going 126-for-132 on his extra points in 49 regular-season games. McPherson went 26-for-31 on field goals and a perfect 40-for-40 on extra points in 17 games for Cincy last year. All five of his missed FGs in 2023 came from over 50 yards out. With quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) back from injury, McPherson should be drafted as a top-12 fantasy kicker in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Rams plan to hold out the same players that missed the preseason opener in Saturday's preseason contest against the Los Angeles Chargers, including wide receiver Cooper Kupp and running back Kyren Williams. Kupp has been healthy this summer during training camp, but head coach Sean McVay isn't taking any chances with the team's key players in the preseason this year. It remains to be seen if the 31-year-old Kupp or other key players will even suit up for the preseason finale next week. Kupp missed the first four games of 2023 with a hamstring injury, so it makes sense as to why the Rams want to rest him this summer. With better health, a bounce-back campaign in 2024 is possible for a player only a couple years removed from a league-high 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, but the presence of rising star Puka Nacua won't help Kupp's cause.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles rookie wide receiver Johnny Wilson (head) is in the league's concussion protocol after getting injured in a joint practice on Tuesday and not being able to suit up for the preseason game against the New England Patriots on Thursday night. Wilson will be hoping to get cleared in time for the team's final preseason contest on Aug. 24 against the Minnesota Vikings. The 23-year-old sixth-round selection caught one of his three targets for seven yards in the preseason opener last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Injury aside, Wilson is going to have a tough time finding much of a role in Philly in his first NFL season while being behind A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Parris Campbell on the receiving depth chart.
From RotoBaller
The saga between the San Francisco 49ers and disgruntled wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is reaching a critical point with only 20 days until the start of the 2024 regular season. Things have gone back and forth between the two sides, and at times a trade has seemed imminent. However, general manager John Lynch on Friday said that he understands the "urgency" of the matter involving Aiyuk. "I can tell you, we feel the urgency to have him, the season's approaching, and we have ample time," Lynch also said. The GM wouldn't say what the odds were of Aiyuk staying in San Fran and didn't give a timetable for a final decision. Lynch said there's no animosity between the club and Aiyuk. From a fantasy perspective, Aiyuk's value will be the highest in 2024 as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 if he stays with the Niners. If he cannot reach an extension with San Fran, a trade to the Steelers could be in the works.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo said that "the competition isn't over" for the starting quarterback job in Week 1 of the regular season between veteran Jacoby Brissett and rookie first-rounder Drake Maye. Mayo said that Maye has made strides, but he wants to see the whole operation be faster with Maye running the show. Maye has gone 8-for-14 for 66 yards and a rushing score in two preseason games to this point, while Brissett has gone 3-for-10 for only 17 yards and an interception. It's possible that the 21-year-old rookie will get more reps with the first-team offense in training camp practices before the final preseason contest next week. Brissett is still probably the favorite to start in Week 1, but he's probably not going to be able to hold off Maye for long if he continues to play like he has in the preseason.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen expressed concern when running back Kendre Miller (hamstring) got hurt three weeks ago in training camp about being able to make the team from the training room. Allen said that sentiment hasn't changed at this point, not just with Miller, but any young player who hasn't gotten to show enough for a true evaluation. The 22-year-old former third-round in 2023 has been a disappointment since entering the NFL. The former TCU star also dealt with nagging injuries in his rookie season and played in only eight games, carrying the ball 41 times for 156 yards and one touchdown and catching 10 passes for 117 yards. He's currently third on the RB depth chart behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams and could be falling further. Miller is off the fantasy radar for now in single-year leagues.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (calf) did an extensive workout on a side field at training camp on Thursday and appears to be getting close to a return to practice. It's great news for the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick and NFL's reigning rushing leader. McCaffrey is recovering from a calf strain that he suffered earlier this month and is not going to play at all in the preseason as a result. But as long as the 28-year-old All-Pro is on track to be ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener on Monday night against the New York Jets on Sept. 9, he'll remain the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy selection in upcoming drafts. As of right now, the 49ers don't seem worried that CMC will miss the start of the regular season, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on his progress.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (foot) shed his walking boot on Thursday and was working out in the weight room. Herbert had a walking boot on for exactly two weeks while he deals with a plantar-fascia injury in his foot. It's good news that the 26-year-old is out of his boot, but it remains to be seen when he'll actually rejoin his teammates at training camp practices as he prepares for the start of the 2024 season. As long as he doesn't have any setbacks with his foot, it's likely that Herbert will be ready for the Week 1 regular-season matchup against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert's fantasy stock was already on the decline before his foot injury with his top targets -- Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams -- all departing in the offseason and with a run-first offense expected under the new coaching staff.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (back) left individual drills on Thursday due to back tightness, which was later confirmed as a back injury, according to Katherine Terrell of ESPN. The rookie lineman was the 14th overall pick this year and is expected to step into a starting role to protect quarterback Derek Carr. His status for the team's next preseason game on Sunday is to be determined. Fuaga looked great in his first preseason game, as he allowed no pressures and received a pass-blocking grade of 77.2 from PFF. Having him healthy heading into the regular season will likely be the team's priority.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (unknown) was not at practice on Thursday night and the reason is still unknown. The star wideout rejoined his teammates on Monday after the birth of his son and has practiced as usual since then. His absence is more than likely a short-term deal but it would be worth monitoring as it remains to be seen if he suits up for a preseason game this year. The quarterback battle continues while Adams' fantasy impact weighs heavily on who wins between Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Trey Sermon (hamstring) continues to battle hamstring issues since suffering the injury during the team's first preseason contest against the Denver Broncos. The fourth-year back has separated himself as the leader for the backup position, but the hamstring issue has opened the door for the next two backs to move up the depth chart. Right now, Tyler Goodson seems to be leading that race with Evan Hull following him. Jonathan Taylor is still the workhorse of the backfield, however, so the fantasy impact of the backup competition will come to fruition if Taylor is hurt and has to miss any action.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte turned four targets into three catches for 23 yards during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. His longest play was a 13-yard reception. Boutte was the Patriots' most productive pass-catcher in the contest, leading the team in receptions and yards while tying for the most targets. The second-year receiver likely isn't going to be a fantasy weapon in 2024, but this performance should still be highlighted as it gives Boutte a stronger chance of making the roster and carving out a role down the stretch.
From RotoBaller