Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
Denver Broncos rookie fifth-round running back Audric Estime only handled five carries in the team's preseason finale against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday at Empower Field and gained 18 yards (3.6 yards per rush), but he found the end zone for one of two Denver rushing scores in the 38-12 victory. Estime also caught his only target for a 14-yard pickup. Blake Watson led the backfield with 11 carries for 38 yards while also catching his only target for eight yards. The 20-year-old Estime got the start in this one and only played on one drive. If Samaje Perine makes Denver's final 53-man roster, Estime will likely begin his first season in the NFL as Denver's RB4 behind Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Perine. Estime is a physical, between-the-tackles runner and could be utilized in specific short-yardage and goal-line situations, but he can likely be left alone in 12-team fantasy leagues for now.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills linebacker Deion Jones was released on Sunday, according to a post from broadcaster Chris Brown on X. Jones' release isn't necessarily surprising, but it's still noteworthy given his veteran status and previous success in the NFL. He made the Pro Bowl with the Atlanta Falcons in 2017 and has tallied 731 tackles, 13 interceptions, 12 sacks, and five forced fumbles through 109 career games. In 13 games with the Carolina Panthers last year, Jones registered 35 tackles, one sack, and one interception. His experience as a key defender in the NFL should be enough to generate some buzz around his name on the open market. However, he may wait to sign a new deal until the dust settles after rosters trim down on Tuesday.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos third-string quarterback Zach Wilson got pretty much all the run in the preseason finale against the Arizona Cardinals at Empower Field on Sunday with rookie first-round starter Bo Nix taking a seat. In the 38-13 beatdown of Arizona, Wilson went 16-for-25 passing for 251 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while also carrying the ball two times for 22 yards and a rushing TD. Jarrett Stidham started the game and went 2-for-4 for 28 yards on just one possession. Wilson's best play of the day was a 46-yard touchdown pass to receiver Brandon Johnson in the fourth quarter. The 25-year-old QB also fumbled, but it was recovered by Denver. It was nice to see Wilson get some positive momentum heading into the regular season, but the former first-rounder is still expected to be Denver's QB3 behind Nix and Stidham when Week 1 arrives in two weeks.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs tight ends Noah Gray and Jared Wiley "can be interchangeable within the offense as the second tight end in some formations," according to Nate Taylor of The Athletic. Gray had an impressive campaign in 2023, and although Wiley hasn't necessarily stood out in his first training camp, it sounds like the coaching staff trusts him enough to get on the field over Gray at times. Of course, the exact depth chart doesn't matter much for fantasy football purposes since Travis Kelce is the clear-cut alpha tight end and remains the only Chiefs tight end worth rostering in redraft leagues. Even if Kelce misses time in 2024, the fact that Gray and Wiley are interchangeable would make it difficult to trust either in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Nate Taylor of The Athletic projects that Kansas City Chiefs rookie Carson Steele will make the initial 53-man roster as a depth running back or primary fullback. The Chiefs seem to have hit the jackpot with Steele, an undrafted free agent whose physicality is nearly unparalleled at the running back position. Kansas City still lists him as a fullback, but he never played there at UCLA. Furthermore, Taylor projects the Chiefs to release all running backs not named Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, meaning Steele would function as the de facto RB3 in Kansas City. Regardless of the exact depth chart dynamic, Chiefs fans and fantasy football managers alike have to be very excited about what they've seen from Steele this preseason. He's an intriguing speculative addition in dynasty formats.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett (shoulder) exited Sunday's preseason finale after taking a sack. He finished his day having completed two of four passes for 19 yards through the air. Drake Maye replaced Brissett and played the remainder of the first half. The Patriots are one of the few NFL teams still holding a competition for their starting quarterback job, and it remains to be seen whether Brissett's injury and Maye's extra reps Sunday could swing the pendulum in the rookie's favor. Regardless of who wins the job coming out of training camp, neither quarterback will have much appeal in redraft fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos are expected to carry backup quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham on their initial 53-man roster, according to comments from head coach Sean Payton following Sunday's preseason finale. In discussing the quarterback room of Wilson, Stidham, and rookie Bo Nix, Payton said, "I see the three of them making it." Nix has already been declared the Broncos' starter, and it sounds like both Wilson and Stidham will keep their jobs, too. It's unclear which signal-caller will be given the backup designation and which quarterback will serve as the emergency third-stringer on gameday, though it's worth noting that Stidham appeared to have the edge on Wilson prior to Sunday's preseason contest. Regardless of the exact depth chart, Nix is the only Broncos quarterback worth considering for a roster spot in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett (shoulder) suffered a right shoulder injury during the preseason game against the Washington Commanders Sunday, Aug. 25.
Fantasy Spin: Brissett was able to finish the drive but didn't return for the following series. If the injury causes him to miss time, Drake Maye could be thrust into starting duty in Week 1.
From TheHuddle
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton suggested he would be keeping three quarterbacks on the 53-man roster. 'I feel comfortable with those three quarterbacks,' Payton said after the preseason finale Sunday, Aug. 25. 'I think I told you already I see the three of them making it.'
From TheHuddle
Denver Broncos WR Phillip Dorsett (leg) suffered a leg injury during the preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals Sunday, Aug. 25.
From TheHuddle
New Orleans Saints receiver A.T. Perry hauled in two receptions for 67 yards in Sunday's preseason loss to the Tennessee Titans. The second-year receiver flashed as a deep threat as a rookie and continued his impressive run of big plays this preseason. He projects as a starter in three-receiver sets with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed and is an intriguing late-round stash.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints receiver Equanimeous St. Brown had an impressive preseason showing in Sunday's loss to the Tennessee Titans as he fights for a spot on the initial 53-man roster. St. Brown hauled in three catches for 40 yards and a score in the loss, including an impressive over-the-shoulder touchdown grab from rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler. The seventh-year pro hopes to make the roster over the likes of Cedrick Wilson, Bub Means, and Mason Tipton.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson started in Sunday's preseason finale, marking his first preseason action of the year after opening training camp on the PUP list. The veteran tight end was one of the lone Saints starters to suit up for the game, and his action was short-lived as he was just targeted once. Nonetheless, it was encouraging to see Johnson on the field after missing a significant portion of training camp. He will be ready to roll in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints quarterback Jake Haener started in Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans. The second-year pro completed 8-of-17 passes for 87 yards while also gaining six yards on a scramble. Haener was outplayed by rookie Spencer Rattler in a pivotal game for the backup quarterback job. The backup will likely be named this week with roster cutdown day on Tuesday. Haener finished the preseason with 270 passing yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler was impressive in the team's final preseason game. Rattler completed 7-of-13 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown while also scrambling twice for 13 yards. The 23-year-old had two highlight-reel passes, showcasing the ability to be a future NFL starter. It remains to be seen if he has won the backup job over second-year quarterback Jake Haener, although he outplayed his competition on Sunday. Rattler remains an intriguing dynasty league stash, given that incumbent quarterback Derek Carr appears to be on a short leash along with head coach Dennis Allen.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers DE Leonard Floyd (knee) is day-to-day with an unspecified knee injury, head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Sunday, Aug. 25.
From TheHuddle
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (shoulder) is set to return to practice on Monday, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. This is great news considering Pearsall has been sidelined throughout the preseason due to a lingering shoulder issue. However, there is still plenty of time for Pearsall to get ready to play before the season opener. The saga of Brandon Aiyuk is still ongoing, which makes Pearsall's value difficult to determine. He's unlikely to have great fantasy value right away, but is worth a look in deep leagues. Pearsall has a bright future, so he's worth the investment in dynasty formats or keeper leagues.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) is uncertain to be available for the season opener, according to head coach Shane Steichen. Downs has been sidelined since he suffered a high-ankle sprain in early August. The 23-year-old appears to be making progress, but he still has more work to do before being ready to play. The absence of Downs is a blow to this offense considering he registered 68 receptions for 772 yards in 17 games last season. If he misses time, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell would both see a boost in targets and fantasy value early in the season.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos defensive back Damarri Mathis (ankle) was removed early during Sunday's preseason finale against the Arizona Cardinals. Mathis had to be carted off the field after suffering what looked to be a bad ankle injury during Sunday's game. The assumption is that the Broncos will have Mathis undergo further testing to determine the severity of the injury. At the moment, it's uncertain if Mathis will be ready to play in the regular season opener. That being said, Riley Moss would likely be the next man up to start alongside Patrick Surtain, assuming Mathis misses time. The absence of Mathis would certainly be a hit to the Broncos secondary.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints kicker Charlie Smyth (groin) didn't suit up during Sunday's preseason contest against the Tennessee Titans. The rookie kicker has been dealing with an ongoing groin issue since Friday. Head coach Dennis Allen said that the team wanted to play it safe and hold Smyth out of this game. In his absence, Blake Grupe handled the kicking duties during the preseason finale. He connected on both his field goal attempts and made all three of his extra point attempts as well. It remains to be seen which kicker the team decides to ride with into the regular season. Grupe is probably the favorite after making 30-of-37 field goal attempts and all 40 extra point attempts during his rookie season with the Saints in 2023.
From RotoBaller