Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young completed six of his eight throws for 70 yards and a touchdown in the team's preseason win over the Buffalo Bills. Young played just the initial drive, distributing the ball around to five different receivers before eventually finding Jordan Matthews for an eight-yard touchdown to cap it off. This was Young's first and only preseason action, as the Panthers have relied primarily on QBs Jack Plummer and Jake Luton in their previous games. While it's an encouraging performance from Young, his fantasy relevance will be seen mainly in 2QB/Superflex leagues, barring a vast improvement from last season's performances to be considered a QB1 in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Malachi Corley was held to one catch on three targets for five yards in Saturday night's preseason win over the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Corley hardly played in two-receiver sets with the Jets' backups on Saturday against the Giants, but it's also possible that means the team already has an eye toward fairly significant snaps for him in the regular season, as most of the team's starters were inactive altogether in this one. As it stands, the 22-year-old rookie third-rounder is in line to share snaps in the slot in Year 1 with the likes of Xavier Gipson and perhaps Allen Lazard on occasions New York opts for a power slot weapon. Corley has a long way to go to carve out fantasy relevance in most leagues, as he projects to be quarterback Aaron Rodgers' No. 4 or No. 5 target the majority of the time.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Jason Brownlee caught three of his five passes for 29 yards in Saturday night's preseason win over the New York Giants in the Meadowlands. Brownlee produced a long gain of 16 yards through the air in Saturday's victory over the Giants. The 25-year-old former Southern Mississippi standout hardly played for the Jets in his rookie season in 2023, coming down with five of his eight passes for 56 yards and a touchdown in seven appearances, and Brownlee will likely be buried on New York's depth chart once again if he makes the roster in 2024.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets running back Xazavian Valladay soaked up plenty of reps in Saturday night's preseason win over the New York Giants in East Rutherford, rushing a team-high 14 times for 28 yards and collecting six of his eight targets for a team-leading 62 yards. Valladay hauled in plenty of checkdowns on Saturday against the Giants, totaling 90 yards on a substantial 20 touches. It was more or less window dressing for the 25-year-old Arizona State product, who is unlikely to be a part of New York's 53-man roster when the regular season begins in what has become a loaded Jets RB room.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns defensive back Denzel Ward (concussion) plans to continue playing football despite suffering the fifth concussion of his career earlier this month in training camp. Ward picked up the injury on Aug. 12 during a 1-on-1 drill after hitting his head on the ground, completing an attempted tackle on wide receiver Elijah Moore. The 27-year-old -- who remains in concussion protocol -- was wearing a protective guardian cap during the drill. If he gets cleared for the Browns' home opener against the Dallas Cowboys in two weeks, it will have been nearly a month on the shelf for him. The veteran cornerback is not taking his injury lightly, nor has he with any of his concussions. "I have looked into a few helmets," Ward said. "I'm going to look into it more. I've been talking to the equipment staff...so definitely got to see about getting sized for one and see if I like it, how I feel out there on the field." Ward's return would be a big boost for a Cleveland defensive unit that is also down starting defensive back Greg Newsome II after he underwent hamstring surgery a week before training camp.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets running back Israel Abanikanda picked up 83 yards with a touchdown in Saturday night's preseason win over the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, doing so on only nine carries in the victory. He added a six-yard reception. Abanikanda shed multiple tackles on his way to the end zone in the second quarter, rushing 45 yards down the field for the score. The 21-year-old former fifth-round pick may have locked down a spot on New York's final 53-man roster ahead of the regular season with Saturday's performance against the Giants, but he'll likely slot in as the Jets' No. 4 option in the backfield behind workhorse starter Breece Hall, considering rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis were held out of action in this one.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys wrapped up their preseason Saturday evening 1-2 with a 26-19 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Trey Lance played the entire game and was the subject of a post-game interview with Jerry Jones. "I saw some good, and I saw some things you'd like to have back," Jones said of the former third-overall pick. "Certainly, we're planning on him being on our roster for sure." The Cowboys' owner also noted that he does not regret spending a fourth-round pick to acquire the 24-year-old last August from the San Francisco 49ers. Lance finishes his preseason by completing 73-of-113 passes for 662 yards, two touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also racked up 168 yards rushing and an additional two scores on 24 carries. He'll open the year as Dallas' QB3, as the Cowboys will be one of the only teams to roster a third option. For now, he's a nice stash in dynasty formats but offers little value elsewhere.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Devontez Walker capped off the preseason in a lackluster way just like the rest of his training camp and preseason has gone. The rookie out of North Carolina caught one of his two targets for four yards against the Packers on Saturday which left him with a total of the exact same for the entire preseason. He was only targeted one other time and didn't catch that one. Walker has been dealing with a lot of injury issues through camp, so he was on and off the field for a lot of it. As it stands currently, he doesn't seem to be in line for a prominent role right away while Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor are still the top three on the depth chart. Walker will need to battle Deonte Harty and Tylan Wallace for snaps after the starting trio.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney impressed during training camp and is the team's clear WR2 heading into the 2024 season. Matt Urben of Falcons Wire said that Mooney and tight end Kyle Pitts "continued to make plays as they have throughout training camp" during the final scrimmage at Wednesday's open practice. The fifth-year wideout did not get a lick of preseason action yet finds himself as the clear-cut second option in the Falcons' wide receiver corps. He'll still have Bijan Robinson and Drake London to vie against for targets, as well as Pitts. However, Mooney holds a bit of appeal despite potentially being the fourth option in his offense. A fully healthy Kirk Cousins will be a big boost to the entire unit, and Mooney is far and away the cheapest option of this group in fantasy drafts. He's Yahoo!'s WR70 in ADP and a strong target in best ball drafts.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to announce their starting quarterback at the end of the upcoming work week, head coach Mike Tomlin said following the team's final preseason game Saturday. Rather than make the decision now, Tomlin wants to let Russell Wilson and Justin Fields showcase themselves during intrateam competition over the next few days. "We've got three days of Steelers versus Steelers work and why not do it then?" Tomlin said when justifying his choice. "It kind of minimizes the Steelers versus Steelers work when we start making decisions prior to the completion of that." While a final decision may truly still be up in the air, it should be noted that Wilson started the final preseason game, going 2-for-2 with 26 passing yards. Fields relieved him, completing three of four passes for 40 yards through the air. Both quarterbacks led scoring drives in the effort. As of now, Wilson seems to have an edge on the competition, but there's still plenty of opportunity for Fields to win the job (over the next few days or during the regular season).
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals defensive end Darius Robinson (calf) could miss multiple weeks after injuring himself during practice on Thursday, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. There's a real chance that Robinson, a rookie, could be placed on injured reserve. Such a transaction would leave Robinson off the field for the first four weeks of the regular season. That's a crushing blow for the first-round lineman who recently drew the praise of head coach Jonathan Gannon and was expected to be a major contributor on defense this season. Robinson tallied 43 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, and 8.5 sacks during his final season at Missouri last year.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Tylan Wallace found the end zone in the team's preseason finale against the Green Bay Packers on Saturday. The Oklahoma State product caught his lone target of the day for a 48-yard catch-and-run touchdown in the second quarter's opening drive. Wallace has flashed some big play ability a couple of times on the professional stage like his game-winning punt return for a touchdown last season. With Odell Beckham Jr. gone, Wallace may see a little more time on the field behind the starting trio, but he's still competing with rookie Devontez Walker and former Buffalo Bill Deonte Harty. Wallace may even have to compete with Harty for punt returning opportunities, so his fantasy relevance isn't too high heading into the new season.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill is expected to have a considerable role in the team's red zone rushing game plan, as per Luke Johnson of NOLA.com. "Game speed is obviously different than practice speed, but the Saints' improved run game looks like it's applied to the red zone as well...and though we didn't see it Friday, Hill should continue to have a huge role in that area of the field." Hill is one of the more versatile NFL athletes in recent history and though he is listed as a tight end, it appears he aims to take a good deal of work from the backfield this season. It will be interesting to see exactly how Klint Kubiak will deploy him in 2024, but as he is a member of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, it wouldn't be surprising to see Hill used innovatively. He is Yahoo!'s TE19 in drafts and could provide great value if he has a rushing load like last year. The 34-year-old would become a more intriguing fantasy asset should he garner positional eligibility at running back.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Josh Johnson finished off the preseason on Saturday with a seemingly tight grip on the backup role to Lamar Jackson. The veteran ended their blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers with 71 yards and a touchdown while throwing five completions out of seven attempts. Despite playing just the first three possessions, Johnson led the QBs in efficiency, yards, and rating, and was the only one to lead the team to a score. Throughout the preseason he totalled 253 yards and two touchdowns while throwing 20-for-30. Any of the quarterbacks that took the field for the Ravens this preseason aren't likely to see the field unless something happens to Lamar Jackson, but for fantasy managers relying on Jackson, it's nice to have a backup plan.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Ainias Smith caught six of nine targets for 36 yards during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The fifth-round rookie finishes the preseason on a high note, leading the Eagles receiving corps in targets by a four-target gap from the next closest receiver. Smith only caught eight balls in total this preseason and failed to reach 50 yards total in receiving. With Jahan Dotson recently being acquired this past week and names like veteran John Ross having strong preseason performances, it will be tough for the 23-year-old to make the final roster. Smith will likely land on the practice squad after the team makes their final cuts.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Parris Campbell caught both of his targets for 34 yards during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The former Indianapolis Colt finished a quiet preseason as a starter on Saturday but faces the chance of not making the final roster heading into the regular season. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Jahan Dotson are locks to make the final roster, but Campbell, rookie Ainias Smith, John Ross, and Kendall Minton are all fighting for the final few spots with none making a strong case for themselves over the others. The 27-year-old will likely latch on to the practice squad or be scooped up by a wide receiver-needy squad heading into Week 1 of the regular season.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Tyrion Davis-Price took 12 carries for 56 yards and lost a fumble during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The 23-year-old was given the start on Saturday but has an uphill battle to make the roster with Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Gainwell, and rookie Will Shipley getting a rest to end the preseason. Davis-Price committing a turnover in his lone start likely didn't help his chances of making the final roster. The former San Francisco 49er will likely land on the practice squad if he is cut in the coming weeks leaving the trio of Barkley, Gainwell, and Shipley as locks to make the Week 1 roster.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette (ankle) left the team's preseason finale against the Buffalo Bills early on Saturday after landing awkwardly completing a catch in the second quarter. The 24-year-old hauled in 2-of-3 targets for 11 yards while contributing 27 yards on two punt returns and a field-flipping 46 yards on his lone kick return. Smith-Marsette was productive before he picked up the injury and is expected to be the team's returner this upcoming season. Barring the severity of his ankle issue, that could still be the case. It's a bit early to tell how impactful the NFL's new kickoff rules will be come the start of the regular season. However, fantasy managers may want to keep the Iowa product on their radar as a sneaky option, depending on how your league values return yards. His Yahoo! ADP is far down enough that he'd be best suited as a prospective waiver-wire add.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Kenny Pickett completed six of nine passes for 58 yards during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The former first-round pick played the entire first half and ended the preseason with his third-straight underwhelming performance. While Pickett has started all three preseason games and has not played with any of the starting receiving corps, he has done little to nothing. While third-string quarterback Tanner McKee had a poor performance as well Saturday, he has looked much better this preseason and has made a strong case to be the No. 2 option behind starter Jalen Hurts. Because the Eagles made a trade for him this offseason, the 26-year-old will likely be the backup come Week 1. With that said, McKee is a name to watch this upcoming week.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee completed 13 of 21 passes for 115 yards, threw one interception, and lost a fumble during the team's 3-26 preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The 24-year-old had been making a strong case to challenge Kenny Pickett for the No. 2 spot but ended the preseason on a low note with two turnovers. With that said, McKee still looked better as a passer than Pickett Saturday proving that he can push the ball downfield while the offense was inept with Pickett. The former Steelers starter will likely end up as the top backup to starter Jalen Hurts come Week 1. Still, McKee should have safely secured himself the emergency quarterback role with his overall strong preseason totals.
From RotoBaller